Prices for December 15th, 2009
| HEATING OIL cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | JAN | 193.12 | 190.09 | 190.33 | dn 00.49 | | FEB | 195.50 | 192.43 | 192.68 | dn 00.39 | | MAR | 197.17 | 194.25 | 194.37 | dn 00.35 | | APR | 197.90 | 195.15 | 195.08 | dn 00.37 | | MAY | 198.84 | 196.29 | 196.13 | dn 00.35 | | JUN | 200.03 | 197.18 | 197.23 | dn 00.35 | | JUL | 201.87 | 198.92 | 199.03 | dn 00.35 | | AUG | 203.74 | 201.92 | 201.33 | dn 00.35 | | SEP | 206.17 | 204.51 | 203.91 | dn 00.35 | | OCT | 208.81 | 206.64 | 206.64 | dn 00.34 | | NOV | 211.75 | 210.04 | 209.29 | dn 00.34 | | DEC | 214.34 | 212.05 | 211.96 | dn 00.33 | | Estimated Volume (day before) total all prev day 73,390 | | NYMEX CRUDE OIL dollars per barrel | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | JAN | 71.15 | 69.31 | 70.69 | up 01.18 | | FEB | 73.21 | 71.69 | 72.69 | up 00.83 | | MAR | 74.56 | 73.26 | 73.93 | up 00.47 | | APR | 75.50 | 74.34 | 74.84 | up 00.28 | | MAY | 76.26 | 75.38 | 75.54 | up 00.20 | | JUN | 76.85 | 75.73 | 76.13 | up 00.16 | | | | | | | | | Estimated Volume… 574,703 Opec Basket…$70.64 dn $0.21
Prompt #2 Oil NYH 88..-3.75 to -3.00, 74 Lo S…-2.75 to -2.25
US Gulf 88 grade…-5.25 to -4.25, 74 grade Lo S…-4.50 to -4.00 Group .........-3.25 to -2.75 Lo S.....-3.25 to -2.75
Chicago ......-10.00 to -9.00
cash quotes by Dow Jones | | | |
| NYMEX RBOB GASOLINE cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | JAN | 186.18 | 182.57 | 184.51 | up 01.84 | | FEB | 188.82 | 185.39 | 187.03 | up 01.53 | | MAR | 191.36 | 188.11 | 189.57 | up 01.33 | | APR | 203.22 | 200.63 | 201.72 | up 01.13 | | MAY | 204.69 | 202.02 | 203.17 | up 01.06 | | JUN | 205.93 | 203.05 | 204.41 | up 01.01 | | JUL | 206.22 | 204.28 | 204.76 | up 00.98 | | AUG | 206.24 | 205.00 | 204.84 | up 00.91 | | Estimated RB Volume day before 76,840 | | NYMEX NATURAL GAS dollars per mmBtu | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | JAN | 5.540 | 5.314 | 5.523 | up 0.191 | | FEB | 5.583 | 5.381 | 5.578 | up 0.176 | | MAR | 5.584 | 5.421 | 5.577 | up 0.140 | | APR | 5.584 | 5.465 | 5.579 | up 0.127 | | | Estimated Volume…day before (226,815)
Nymex statistics are based on composite Access & Day Sessions
Prompt Gasoline NYH M5 -2.00 /-1.75 RBOB +5.25 /+5.50
US Gulf M4: -4.50 to -4.25 RBOB +1.00 to +1.25
L.A. Conv Reg 199.00-200.00, N-grade Group 181.50-182.00 Chi 179.75-180.25 | |
Market Review for Tuesday
HE oil complex had plenty to react to yesterday, with the Producer Price Index, US Production and Opec’s monthly survey all giving the market input. The PPI came in 1.8% higher for November, led higher primarily by higher oil and commodities prices. The core index was up 0.5% on expectations for an increase of 0.2%. Manufacturing, or US production, increased by 0.8%, its fourth increase in the last five months, and more than analysts had expected. With inventories low, manufacturing is seen as one of the strong points in the US economy right now. Ford Motor Company announced that it will need to increase first quarter output by 58% in order to meet demand. While that is stronger than most companies, it is another good sign that the economy is picking up pace. And Opec announced early yesterday that the call on its oil in 2010 will be 100,000 bpd more than it had previously anticipated, keeping a new trend in place towards revisions higher for consumption next year. Taken together, these data points suggested growth in the economy and that boosted prices.
| Fuel for Thought At first glance this week’s PPI figures could be seen as alarming, showing a leap in the annual inflation rate from negative 1.9% in October to plus 2.4% in November. The biggest factor in this PPI report was the 14.2% rise, year-on-year, in gasoline prices. Capital Economics (CE) says that these are illusory, and are more the result of one-time rises in energy prices and their comparison with last year’s depressed levels. While some of the same conditions may be present in December, recent declines should mitigate them. After that, we will be comparing prices to prices that were rising after January last year. CE also noted that November’s 0.5% increase in the core rate was mostly a reversal of October’s 0.6% decline. And it notes that spare capacity should keep real inflation at bay. |
The US dollar was higher yesterday, but it has been less and less of an influence, more or less proving the point that a stronger dollar does not so much generate selling in oil futures as it fails to trigger buying. That allows the fundamentals or more traditional factors to shine through. The people buying oil on dollar weakness tend to be investors who know little or nothing about oil futures or its charts. They tend to invest in index funds and ETF’s that only buy oil. We used to joke that old-line speculators in oil wouldn’t know a barrel of oil if it rolled up and hit them in the leg. But, in comparison, they know so much more than the new index fund investors, and they often follow the charts, which requires following prices, at least. The new investors probably could not tell by the price whether they are buying heating oil or crude oil.
In any event, oil prices were higher yesterday, despite a stronger dollar and a weaker stock market. Because those influences tend not to work as well in reverse as they do for the long side in oil, traders mix and match the factors that seem to make sense on any given day. As long as the dollar is working higher, they have a chance to look at the changing fundamentals on a day by day basis. Today, they are likely to focus on the weekly DOE statistics.
Technicals
Oil prices were mostly higher yesterday, although it seems that traders were covering shorts and getting out of existing positions. Heating oil prices were surprisingly lower, but January crude gained against the deferred months and gasoline prices were higher. It does look like counter-trend trading rather than a change in trend.
Dollars per barrel
Above: Crude oil prices have very tough resistance overhead. The question is whether prices want to drop dramatically from here.
January crude oil now has buy-stops over $71.15-$71.40, $73.90, $74.40, $76.10, $77.90, $78.59, $79.05, $79.95, $80.33-$80.52, $81.06, $81.58, $82.00, $84.83, $85.13, $89.82, and $90.99. Sell-stops are under $69.30, $68.55, $68.00, $65.80-$66.20, and $64.95. January heating oil has buy-stops over 193.15, 200.85, 202.50, 204.75, 208.80, 209.70, 210.00, 211.17, 212.12, 216.07, 225.80, 227.05, 229.08, 238.95, 249.62, 251.50, 256.48, 265.89, and 273.20. Sell stops are under 190.00, 189.55, 188.70, 187.00, 186.50, 182.63, 177.00, 176.68, 173.75, 171.10, 170.35, 168.60, 167.65, and 166.90. January RBOB has buy-stops over 186.20, 192.80, 195.41, 198.60, 204.10, 206.15, 207.62, 209.53, 211.24, 214.00, 222.70, and 228.86. Sell-stops are under 182.40, 181.20, 179.20, 177.30, 175.14, 171.40, 170.25, and 168.85.
Football: The bears lost 12 yards on first down and that makes it second and 22 to go, here.
Technical Support & Resistance
Jan crude oil Support: $69.30-$69.45, $68.55-$68.70, $68.00-$68.15, $65.80-$66.20, $64.95-$65.10.
Resistance: $71.15-$71.40, $73.70-$73.85, $74.25-$74.40, $75.90-$76.10, $77.75-$77.90.
Jan heating oil Support: 190.00-190.20, 188.70-188.90, 187.00-187.15, 186.50-186.65, 182.60-182.75.
Resistance: 192.95-193.15, 200.70-200.85, 202.35-202.50, 204.60-204.75, 208.65-208.80.
Jan Rbob Support: 182.40-182.60, 181.20-181.35, 179.20-179.35, 177.30-177.45, 175.10-175.30.
Resistance: 186.00-186.20, 192.65-192.80, 195.16-195.41, 198.50-198.60, 203.77-204.10.
Oil Inventory Reports
This week’s DOE report has seen more declines than increases in refinery utilization, so we have to go with the averages. Even when lumped all together, the average change in utilization over the last eight years has been a decline of 1.15%. Taken as a whole, the period at the end of the year, from Thanksgiving to New Year’s traditionally sees some increase in refining rates; it’s just that this is an especially poor week for that. Inventories do not have any especially strong tendencies for this week, but there have been much larger decline in crude oil stocks than there have been builds.
Distillate stocks are now 30.4 million bbls, or 22.20%, higher than a year ago. Heating oil inventories are 8.7 mln bbls, or 20.76%, higher than they were a year ago. Gasoline stocks are 11.6 mln bbls (up 5.67%) higher against a year ago. Crude oil stocks are now 14.1 million bbls, or 4.38%, higher than a year ago. Residual stocks are 2.2 mln bbls (5.73%) lower than a year ago, jet fuel stocks are 4.6 mln bbls, (12.13%) higher than a year ago. Utilization is 4.64% lower than a year ago and 9.90% below the eight-year average. It is 12.18% lower than the four-year, pre-Katrina average and 7.63% below the average after it.
Last Week’s Demand:
Four-week, total refined products demand came in at 18.499 million bpd, up 0.008 mln bbls on the week, and down 0.563 mln bpd and 2.95% against a year ago. Eight weeks ago, it was 0.900 mln bpd and 5.03% higher than a year ago. Four-week gasoline demand is at 9.016 mln bpd, up 1.22%, compared to up 6.23% eight weeks ago. Four-week distillate demand is now at 3.541 mln bpd, down 8.34%, compared to down 14.80% four weeks ago. Four-week jet demand is now at 1.425 mln bpd, down 0.70%, compared to up 0.14% a week ago and 1.61% two weeks ago. Four-week residual fuel demand is at 0.505 mln bpd, down 7.14%, compared to down 1.19% three weeks ago. Propane use is up 18.72%, at 1.408 mln bpd, compared to being up 17.63% three weeks ago. Demand was mostly higher, except for distillate.
This Week’s API Report:
This week’s API report showed a build of 0.924 mln bbls in crude oil stocks, a draw of 2.604 mln bbls in distillate stocks and a build of 2.074 mln bbls in gasoline inventories. Utilization was down 2.8% to 78.6%. Implied demand came in at 9.356 mln bpd in gasoline and at 4.385 mln bpd in distillate. Crude oil imports dropped 0.688 mln bpd to 8.853 mln bpd, which helped to give a build in crude oil stocks. The increase in crude stocks and decline in utilization were unexpected.
DOE Weekly Inventory Statistics
| Category | Final DOE Estimate
This Week’s Estimate | History
Last Year’s Report | Most Recent Changes
This Week’s DOE Report | Versus A Year Ago
Millions of Barrels |
| Distillate | dn 0.50 to 1.00 mln bbls | up 2.936 | up 1.619 mln bbls | up 30.400 |
| Gasoline | up 1.75 to 2.25 | up 1.295 | up 2.253 | up 11.600 |
| Crude oil | dn 1.00 to 2.00 | up 0.525 | dn 3.823 | up 14.100 |
| Utilization | dn 0.0% to 0.5% | dn 3.3% at 84.1% | up 1.44 at 81.10% | |
| Crude Imports | up 0.250 to 0.750 mmbd | dn 0.286 to 9.673 | dn 0.264 to 8.137 mln bpd | |
| DOE Distillate Demand | 3.320 mln bpd | dn 259,000 | Gasoline Demand | 9.012 mln bpd | up 069,000 |
| DOE Distillate Production | 3.994 mln bpd | up 090,000 | Gasoline Production | 9.163 mln bpd | up 138,000 |
| DOE Distillate Imports | 0.185 mln bpd | up 049,000 | Gasoline Imports | 0.750 mln bpd | dn 350,000 |
Source: US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration
Open Interest Analysis
Crude oil open interest fell by 24,093 contracts on Monday, when prices were lower. That looks like heavy long liquidation, which would be considered supportive. Traders have started getting out of January contracts.
Heating oil open interest fell by 721 contracts on Monday, when prices were lower. That looks like net, long liquidation, which would be supportive.
RBOB open interest grew by 748 contracts on Monday when prices were lower. That looks like new selling, which would be bearish.
Natural gas open interest fell by 24,237 on Monday, when prices were higher. That looks like heavy short-covering, which would be bearish. Once again, the open interest changes are bearish, which is odd. Managed money remains heavily short.
Monday’s Open Interest Changes:
Crude 1,218,121 dn 24,093 Heat 307,057 dn 721 RBOB 235,046 up 748 Nat gas 715,525 dn 24,257
CFTC Commitments of Traders for Nymex (for the period ended Tuesday, Dec 8th)
We have changed our section on commitments of traders, and will be modifying into 2010 to deal with new details.
In the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report, on the ICE, Producers added 17,359 new long and added 31,171 short futures contracts. Swap Dealers liquidated 786 long and covered 5,816 short futures contracts. Managed Money liquidated 1,762 longs and covered 9,852 shorts. That shows heavy producer selling. On the Nymex, Managed Money liquidated 11,080 longs and added 11,645 shorts, while Producers added 2,997 longs and added 2,104 shorts. Swap Dealers bought 9,676 longs and added 1,651 shorts, making them the best buyers. Crude oil prices dropped $5.75 over the latest period, so it seems that liquidation and new selling by managed money accounts was the best selling. Other reportables did the best buying as prices dropped, adding 10,082 longs and covering 4,067 shorts. New producer selling was the motive force, and was bearish.
In heating oil, combining all platforms, Managed Money accounts were kicking out both longs and shorts, liquidating 4,091 longs and covering 2,685 shorts. Producers bought into weakness, as prices dropped 8.71 cents, adding 1,233 new longs and only 202 new shorts. Swap Dealers were also buying into the weakness, adding 1,880 new longs and 568 new shorts. Managed money long liquidation was the best selling in this market.
In gasoline, combining all platforms, Producers added 874 longs and covered 14,134 shorts. Swap dealers liquidated 1,217 longs and covered 385 shorts. Managed Money accounts liquidated 11,526 longs and covered 502 new shorts. Other reportables liquidated 838 longs and covered 688 shorts. Here, managed money long liquidation generated the best new selling. In both refined products, it was liquidation of managed money accounts pushing prices lower. It is potentially bullish.
Natural Gas & Utility Generation
Natural gas prices were higher again yesterday, as traders continued to buy ahead of colder temperatures throughout large parts of the northern tier. It is much colder than normal right now in the northern Plains into the Great Lakes, and this cold will be moving eastwards into New England over the next couple of days. And, longer-range forecasts out 14 days or so also remain on the colder side. Traders are also starting to incorporate the cold readings we have had into their outlook for coming storage reports. Few expect the existing surpluses to disappear, but they are expected to drop.
There was also an important technical or chart feature to yesterday’s trading, with prices having broken out above $5.32, the market’s critical resistance and significant high point until this week. Yesterday’s trading provided the all-too-important second close above that level, in effect confirming the upside breakout seen on Monday. This breakout is far from being insignificant, because it gives prices a swing objective to $7.066/mmBtu. It may take time to get there, and there will be stops and starts and reversals, but right now, at least, the breakout is very clear in giving us a very clear upside objective.
Obviously, any upside objective is going to require a number of sympathetic events. The economy would be expected to improve, while colder-than-normal temperatures would almost have to be sustained. And, since neither of those is any way assured, a good deal could occur between now and some distant “then” to prevent prices from reaching their objectives to more than $7.00.
Early estimates for this week’s EIA report are for a large decline, with Dow Jones quoting Citibank as looking for a draw of 165 bcf. The five-year average, using the same dates, is for a drawdown of 127 bcf. Our five-year average, using similar Friday reports, is for a draw of 120.2 bcf. The eight-year average, using the same Friday reports, shows a drawdown of 119.88 bcf. In any event, anything more than the 124 bcf seen last year would have to be seen as being bullish.
In cash trading yesterday, Henry Hub prices were at $5.47-$5.56, up $0.09-$0.15 on the day (DJN). SoCal prices were at $5.55-$5.73, up $0.06 and down $0.04 on the day. El Paso Permian prices were up $0.01-$0.09 at $5.38-$5.55. Katy prices were up $0.10-$0.13 at $5.44-$5.56. Waha prices were up $0.08-$0.09 at $5.38-$5.54. Transco 6 was up $0.60-$1.70 to $6.70-$8.00/mmBtu, according to Dow Jones News (DJN). Most physical quotes were higher again yesterday as traders looked ahead again to colder temperatures possibly all the way through the end of the month.
Palo Verde prices were last quoted at $46.050-$48.509.25/mwh. Northeastern prices last traded at $45.00-$62.50. Entergy was last at $44.75-$45.25. Ercot was last at $46.75-$48.50/mwh.
Support is at $5.31-$5.33, $5.19-$5.21, $5.12-$5.14, $4.96-$4.99, $4.83-$4.85, $4.64-$4.66, $4.40-$4.43, $4.15-$4.17, $4.05-$4.08, $3.73-$3.75, $3.66-$3.68, $3.50-$3.53, $3.44-$3.46, $3.28-$3.32, $2.91-$2.93, $2.80-$2.82, $2.74-$2.75, $2.69-$2.70, $2.62-$2.64, and $240-$2.43. Resistance is at $5.54-$5.57, $5.62-$5.63, $5.82-$5.86, $5.96-$6.01, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37, $6.65-$6.69, $6.90-$6.94, $7.01-$7.04, $7.28-$7.31, and $7.34-$7.36.
Jan Natural Gas: Support: $5.19-$5.21, $5.12-$5.14, $4.96-$4.99, $4.83-$4.85, $4.84-$4.86, $4.64-$4.66.
Resistance: $5.40-$5.42, $5.55-$5.57, $5.62-$5.63, $5.82-$5.86, $5.96-$6.01, $6.15-$6.17.
Natural gas prices had a decisive break over $5.32 yesterday, which gives us a swing objective to $7.066/mmBtu.
Dollars per million Btu
The crude-to-gas ratio ended yesterday at 12.80-to-one, its lowest level since reaching 12.19-to-one on March 24th.
Dollars per million Btu
EIA Weekly Storage Figures
Last week’s EIA report showed a draw of 64 bcf on expectations for a draw of 47-48 bcf. Stocks are now 472 bcf higher than a year ago, against a surplus of 470 bcf a week ago, a surplus of 404 bcf two weeks ago and a surplus of 347 bcf three weeks ago. Stocks are now 14.30% higher than a year ago. They are 487 bcf and 14.54% above the five-year average.
For this week, the eight-year average was a draw of 119.88 bcf. The five-year average was a draw of 120.2 bcf. Last year, there was a draw of 124 bcf. One early estimate is for a draw of 165 bcf this week.
EIA Report
| Region | 12-04-09 | 11-27-09 | Change | Last Year | 5 Yr Avg |
| Cons East | 2061 | 2092 | dn 31 | 1879 | 1870 |
| Cons West | 517 | 526 | dn 09 | 465 | 436 |
| Producing | 1195 | 1219 | dn 24 | 956 | 954 |
| Total US | 3773 | 3837 | up 64 | 3301 | 3260 |
Bcf, or Billions of cubic feet. Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy
News & Views
| In trading on Nymex, January crude oil prices were down $0.06 at $70.63/barrel at 12:30 AM EST, this morning. January heating oil prices were up 1.10 cents to 1.9143/gallon. January RBOB prices were up 0.46 cents to $1.8497. January natural gas prices were up $0.010 to $5.533/mmBtu. Traders were buying heating oil in reaction to last night’s API report, and to colder temperatures expected ahead. Crude and gasoline were up lightly on book-squaring ahead of today’s DOE report. DOE Expectations The table below lists the final survey results for Dow Jones, Bloomberg and Reuters. The DOE report will be released at 10:30 AM EDT on Wednesday morning this week. Category Dow Jones Bloomberg Reuters Crude dn 1.700 dn 2.000 dn 1.800 mln bbls Distillate dn 0.600 dn 0.500 dn 0.600 Gasoline up 1.400 up 1.500 up 1.300 Utilization up 0.3% up 0.3% up 0.3% 
Crude oil prices rallied yesterday in what looks like short-covering. The front-month January gained on February, underlining the probability of it being short-covering yesterday. | 
Heating oil prices finished right on top of their channel-line support again with yesterday’s settlement. Prices have an uncanny ability to find support along this line. It suggests a rally coming. DOE History: Distillate stocks have fallen in four of the last eight years, by an average of 1.975 mln bbls. The eight-year average is a draw of 0.220 mln bbls. Gasoline stocks rose in five of the last eight years, for a five-year average build of 1.799 mln bbls and an eight-year average build of 0.962 mln bbls. Crude oil stocks have been lower in four of the last eight years for a four-year average draw of 5.250 mln bbls and it has an eight-year average draw of 2.084 mln bbls. Utilization has been lower in six of the last eight years and has an eight-year average decrease of 1.15%, and it has an eight-year average utilization figure of 89.85%. The four-year, pre-hurricane utilization average was 92.05%. Since Katrina, refineries have run at an average utilization rate of 87.65%. Crude oil imports have been lower in five of the last six years, and the average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been down 453,000 bpd. The average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been 9.538 million bpd. |
| January gained yesterday against February in short-covering. | |
This morning’s DOE report will give us a fresh look at supply and demand figures, and traders will be especially keen to see if distillate demand has improved on the back of colder weather recently. It will take extended and sustained cold to eat into inventories, but it does look like readings will be colder through December.
An Illustrated Look at Energy Market Factors
A Look at the US Dollar Versus the Euro
Dollar-Euro (dollar in euro cents): Six-Month Bar-Chart 
The US dollar was up again yesterday, breaking above another measure of resistance and putting additional ground between the market and the double lows reached two weeks ago, roughly. Oil traders took cues from elsewhere yesterday.
Source: http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forexqkchart&curcode1=USD&curcode2=EUR
A Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (djia)
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Six-Month Chart
The DJIA dropped a little more than 49 points yesterday, failing to push ahead to new highs on some stronger economic data points. The market seems to have lost some of its upward momentum in recent sessions, but it is still too close to its highs to discount its ability to break over them to fresh highs.
Source: http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=djia&sid=1643&time=6mo&Submit1=Refresh
A Look at Temperatures
The cold is moving eastwards tomorrow.
By Friday, the bitterest cold will have moved out to sea.
Source: http://www.weather.com/
Recommendations for Specific Market Segments
Heating Oil Distributors Heating oil prices have managed to build support recently above 190.00, and they continue to settle, more often than not, right on the lower channel line. Cold weather, if it persists, is likely to act as a continuing supportive factor, and it could even help put a dent in generous inventory levels. Despite the colder weather that has been helping natural gas prices regularly recently, heating oil prices have been only lightly influenced. As we suggest, it could be something to build on if the cold remains. Yesterday, heating oil was the weakest member of the complex, but yesterday seemed to be an aberration. The fact that prices have found support and the continuing forecasts for colder temperatures are reasons why we would continue to hold capped-price protection in this market. We would hold what we have, and those with light or little protection may want to add – lightly – here to their caps. Diesel Users We would hold capped-price protection, adding to it if needed. NYH Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…187.85-188.35 minus 2.250 USG Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…186.35-186.60 minus 3.875 Jet/Kerosene Users & Airlines New York Harbor cash market differentials were 3.00 to 3.50 cents over January heating oil in NY Harbor and 1.75 to 2.25 over the screen in the US Gulf. Differentials have increased on cold weather. Diesel & Gasoline Marketers We want to be hedged against downside risk because of poor fundamental factors. The near-term trend is lower, here. Gasoline Blenders & End-Users We would cover some of our puts, but hold the rest. Prices seem to have found support at Friday’s low. Prompt NYH Fuel Ethanol…..206.00-208.00 Prompt USG Fuel Ethanol….195.00-198.00 Quotes from 12-15-09 Heating Oil End-Users We would hold onto capped-price product, without adding here. Speculators We want to buy puts on any fair rally from here. The momentum lower has stalled, and this could be an opportunity. We would keep positions on the lighter side, now. Refiners The 7:5+2 crack spread was $7.50 yesterday. Crude Oil Producers Crude oil prices seem to have lost some steam on the downside, but the trend remains pointed lower. We may see more of a rally, first. | Prompt Jet Fuel Prices New York Harbor 193.35-193.85 US Gulf 192.00-192.60 Midwest (Group Three) 190.35-193.35 Midwest (Chicago) 190.35-193.35 Los Angeles 192.00-193.00 San Francisco 192.00-193.00 Portland, Oregon 192.00-193.00 Cents per gallon Wednesday Prices Propane Prices Mont Belvieu……….…..non-TET………$1.116250 Cents per gallon  Gasoline prices rallied slightly yesterday, but there was very little power behind the advance. Still, there is now decent support coalescing around Friday’s low at 181.24. Prices are likely to have a difficult time breaking back up through the heavy consolidation overhead, which is acting as a bearish factor in this market. It predisposes prices to move lower from here.
|