Prices for December 16th, 2009
| HEATING OIL cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | JAN | 197.70 | 191.14 | 196.58 | up 06.25 | | FEB | 199.46 | 193.67 | 198.73 | up 06.05 | | MAR | 200.91 | 196.10 | 200.15 | up 05.78 | | APR | 201.36 | 196.86 | 200.65 | up 05.57 | | MAY | 202.25 | 198.13 | 201.49 | up 05.36 | | JUN | 203.00 | 198.50 | 202.43 | up 05.20 | | JUL | 204.62 | 203.76 | 204.08 | up 05.05 | | AUG | 206.28 | 204.78 | 206.27 | up 04.94 | | SEP | 208.85 | 205.01 | 208.82 | up 04.91 | | OCT | 211.75 | 211.40 | 211.51 | up 04.87 | | NOV | 214.31 | 213.98 | 214.07 | up 04.78 | | DEC | 217.35 | 213.10 | 216.65 | up 04.69 | | Estimated Volume (day before) total all prev day 90,333 | | NYMEX CRUDE OIL dollars per barrel | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | JAN | 73.55 | 70.59 | 72.66 | up 01.97 | | FEB | 75.00 | 72.62 | 74.38 | up 01.69 | | MAR | 75.88 | 73.91 | 75.32 | up 01.39 | | APR | 76.60 | 74.89 | 76.09 | up 01.25 | | MAY | 77.20 | 75.79 | 76.74 | up 01.20 | | JUN | 77.83 | 76.31 | 77.32 | up 01.19 | | | | | | | | | Estimated Volume… 651,282 Opec Basket…$70.79 up $0.15
Prompt #2 Oil NYH 88..-3.25 to -3.00, 74 Lo S…-2.50 to -2.25
US Gulf 88 grade…-5.25 to -5.00, 74 grade Lo S…-5.00 to -4.00 Group .........-3.50 to -3.00 Lo S.....-3.50 to -3.00
Chicago ......-9.50 to -7.50
cash quotes by Dow Jones | | | |
| NYMEX RBOB GASOLINE cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | JAN | 189.77 | 184.97 | 187.39 | up 02.88 | | FEB | 192.29 | 187.59 | 190.03 | up 03.00 | | MAR | 194.67 | 190.23 | 192.63 | up 03.06 | | APR | 206.40 | 201.75 | 204.63 | up 02.91 | | MAY | 207.50 | 205.91 | 205.87 | up 02.70 | | JUN | 208.95 | 205.02 | 206.97 | up 02.56 | | JUL | 208.74 | 207.42 | 207.24 | up 02.48 | | AUG | 208.39 | 207.55 | 207.27 | up 02.43 | | Estimated RB Volume day before 71,165 | | NYMEX NATURAL GAS dollars per mmBtu | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | JAN | 5.569 | 5.420 | 5.462 | dn 0.061 | | FEB | 5.605 | 5.463 | 5.513 | dn 0.065 | | MAR | 5.599 | 5.454 | 5.502 | dn 0.075 | | APR | 5.592 | 5.459 | 5.500 | dn 0.079 | | | Estimated Volume…day before (327,409)
Nymex statistics are based on composite Access & Day Sessions
Prompt Gasoline NYH M5 -1.50 /-1.00 RBOB +5.25 /+5.50
US Gulf M4: -4.50 to -4.00 RBOB +0.50 to +1.00
L.A. Conv Reg 201.00-202.00, N-grade Group 184.40-184.90 Chi 181.90-182.65 | |
Market Review for Wednesday
HIS week’s DOE report showed good draws in distillate and crude oil stocks, and in refinery utilization. The overall impression was a bullish one, and traders bid prices higher as a result. Those were the headlines – which were enough to push quotes higher – but the real feature that did not make the headlines and should have was the fact that the distillate supply-demand balance had a swing of 696,000 bpd towards the demand side or away from the supply side. Demand jumped 472,000 bpd and production dropped 268,000 bpd. This was offset by just a 44,000 bpd increase in imports. That small addition to supplies could not balance out the decline in output or the surge in consumption. That was the bullish news. On the bearish side, though, was the fact that the new, higher demand was still only 3.792 million bpd, which is hardly a robust figure in absolute terms. Nevertheless, the swing in the balance was bullish and deserved to be a headline of its own. In the existing environment of reduced output, the changes were bullish, in a relative way.
| Fuel for Thought Iran successfully tested an upgraded Sejil-2 surface-to-surface missile yesterday, which served to move it closer to a new round of sanctions. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said yesterday that the test “does make the case for us moving further on sanctions.” President Obama echoed those thoughts. “At a time when the international community has offered Iran opportunities to begin to build trust and confidence, Iran’s missile tests only undermine Iran’s claims of peaceful intentions,” was a statement released by Obama’s National Security Council spokesperson. France said that the test “can only reinforce the concerns of the international community,” and Germany called the test “unsettling.” We may see sanctions considered more earnestly now. |
The drawdown in crude oil stocks, while it might seem bullish, is much more two-sided. Yes, crude oil inventories declined. The year-on-year surplus dropped from 14.7 million barrels (4.38%) a week ago and 19.5 million barrels two weeks ago (6.09%) to just 9.5 million barrels (2.94%) now. But the reason is because crude oil imports fell to 7.772 million bpd, their lowest level since the week ended September 19th, 2008, after Hurricane Ike (before they could fully recover from Gustav). They were not as low at any other point in our records back to July, 2004, and not even after Hurricanes Katrina or Rita. This new low level is certainly not bullish as far as global demand for crude is concerned. And, Cushing stocks also increased in this week’s report, by 0.800 million barrels to 34.1 million barrels. This is a case of bullish headlines, but a bearish underlying core.
The US dollar also continued its near meteoric rise yesterday, putting further distance between existing quotes and the major lows seen at the double bottom formed two weeks ago. The higher dollar does not generate selling – where a lower dollar spurs investors to put their money into long-only index funds. This gives fundamentals a free hand, and prices are still on the high side.
Technicals
Oil prices were all higher yesterday, with crude oil and heating oil leading the way higher. This week’s DOE report was the main factor behind the movement higher, but much of the buying seems to fit the profile of short-covering. At this stage, it does not look like the rally of the last two days represents a change in trend – which is lower, for now.
Dollars per barrel
Above: The crude oil contango dropped to 1.72 yesterday on what looked like short-covering. Cushing stocks increased in this report.
January crude oil now has buy-stops over $73.55, $73.90, $74.40, $76.10, $77.90, $78.59, $79.05, $79.95, $80.33-$80.52, $81.06, $81.58, $82.00, $84.83, $85.13, $89.82, and $90.99. Sell-stops are under $70.55, $69.30, $68.55, $68.00, $65.80-$66.20, and $64.95. January heating oil has buy-stops over 197.70, 200.85, 202.50, 204.75, 208.80, 209.70, 210.00, 211.17, 212.12, 216.07, 225.80, 227.05, 229.08, 238.95, 249.62, 251.50, 256.48, 265.89, and 273.20. Sell stops are under 191.00, 190.00, 189.55, 188.70, 187.00, 186.50, 182.63, 177.00, 176.68, 173.75, 171.10, 170.35, 168.60, 167.65, and 166.90. January RBOB has buy-stops over 189.80, 192.80, 195.41, 198.60, 204.10, 206.15, 207.62, 209.53, 211.24, 214.00, 222.70, and 228.86. Sell-stops are under 184.95, 182.40, 181.20, 179.20, 177.30, 175.14, 171.40, 170.25, and 168.85.
Football: The bears lost 20 yards on second and 22 to go, making it a very difficult third and 42 to go today.
Technical Support & Resistance
Jan crude oil Support: $70.55-$70.65, $69.30-$69.45, $68.55-$68.70, $68.00-$68.15, $65.80-$66.20.
Resistance: $73.45-$73.55, $73.70-$73.85, $74.25-$74.40, $75.90-$76.10, $77.75-$77.90.
Jan heating oil Support: 191.00-191.15, 190.00-190.20, 188.70-188.90, 187.00-187.15, 186.50-186.65.
Resistance: 197.60-197.70, 200.70-200.85, 202.35-202.50, 204.60-204.75, 208.65-208.80.
Jan Rbob Support: 184.95-185.10, 182.40-182.60, 181.20-181.35, 179.20-179.35, 177.30-177.45.
Resistance: 189.65-189.80, 192.65-192.80, 195.16-195.41, 198.50-198.60, 203.77-204.10.
Oil Inventory Reports
This week’s DOE report was predominantly bullish with larger-than-expected declines in crude oil and distillate stocks. And distillate had a strong move to the demand side of the supply-demand equation, gaining 740,000 bpd between higher demand and lower output. Imports grew by 44,000 bpd, which cut the move to 696,000 bpd. All three stock levels improved in the year-on-year category, with the distillate surplus dropping from 30.4 million bbls (22.20%) to 25.30 million barrels, and the gasoline surplus falling from 11.6 million barrels (5.675) to 10.3 million bbls. Crude went from 14.1 mln bbls to 9.5 mln bbls.
Distillate stocks are now 25.3 million bbls, or 18.19%, higher than a year ago. Heating oil inventories are 6.5 mln bbls, or 15.55%, higher than they were a year ago. Gasoline stocks are 10.3 mln bbls (up 4.98%) higher against a year ago. Crude oil stocks are now 9.5 million bbls, or 2.94%, higher than a year ago. Residual stocks are 1.3 mln bbls (3.44%) lower than a year ago, jet fuel stocks are 3.1 mln bbls, (8.18%) higher than a year ago. Utilization is 4.15% lower than a year ago and 9.90% below the eight-year average. It is 12.10% lower than the four-year, pre-Katrina average and 7.70% below the average after it.
This Week’s Demand:
Four-week, total refined products demand came in at 18.766 million bpd, up 0.267 mln bbls on the week, and down 0.318 mln bpd and 1.67% against a year ago. Nine weeks ago, it was 0.900 mln bpd and 5.03% higher than a year ago. Four-week gasoline demand is at 9.003 mln bpd, up 1.02%, compared to up 6.23% nine weeks ago. Four-week distillate demand is now at 3.588 mln bpd, down 6.56%, compared to down 14.80% five weeks ago. Four-week jet demand is now at 1.490 mln bpd, up 0.70%, compared to up 0.14% a week ago and 1.61% two weeks ago. Four-week residual fuel demand is at 0.505 mln bpd, up 4.63%, compared to down 1.19% four weeks ago. Propane use is up 17.07%, at 1.440 mln bpd, compared to being up 17.63% four weeks ago. Demand was higher almost across the board.
This Week’s API Report:
This week’s API report showed a build of 0.924 mln bbls in crude oil stocks, a draw of 2.604 mln bbls in distillate stocks and a build of 2.074 mln bbls in gasoline inventories. Utilization was down 2.8% to 78.6%. Implied demand came in at 9.356 mln bpd in gasoline and at 4.385 mln bpd in distillate. Crude oil imports dropped 0.688 mln bpd to 8.853 mln bpd, which helped to give a build in crude oil stocks. The increase in crude stocks and decline in utilization were unexpected.
DOE Weekly Inventory Statistics
| Category | Final DOE Estimate
This Week’s Estimate | History
Last Year’s Report | Most Recent Changes
This Week’s DOE Report | Versus A Year Ago
Millions of Barrels |
| Distillate | dn 0.50 to 1.00 mln bbls | up 2.936 | up 1.619 mln bbls | up 30.400 |
| Gasoline | up 1.75 to 2.25 | up 1.295 | up 2.253 | up 11.600 |
| Crude oil | dn 1.00 to 2.00 | up 0.525 | dn 3.823 | up 14.100 |
| Utilization | dn 0.0% to 0.5% | dn 3.3% at 84.1% | up 1.44 at 81.10% | |
| Crude Imports | up 0.250 to 0.750 mmbd | dn 0.286 to 9.673 | dn 0.264 to 8.137 mln bpd | |
| DOE Distillate Demand | 3.320 mln bpd | dn 259,000 | Gasoline Demand | 9.012 mln bpd | up 069,000 |
| DOE Distillate Production | 3.994 mln bpd | up 090,000 | Gasoline Production | 9.163 mln bpd | up 138,000 |
| DOE Distillate Imports | 0.185 mln bpd | up 049,000 | Gasoline Imports | 0.750 mln bpd | dn 350,000 |
Source: US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration
Open Interest Analysis
Crude oil open interest fell by 1,021 contracts on Tuesday, when prices were higher. That looks like short-covering, which would be bearish.
Heating oil open interest fell by 4,754 contracts on Tuesday, when prices were lower. That looks like net, long liquidation, which would be supportive.
RBOB open interest fell by 596 contracts on Tuesday when prices were higher. That looks like short-covering, which would be bearish.
Natural gas open interest rose by 25,643 on Tuesday, when prices were higher. That looks like heavy new buying, which would be bullish. It is the first bullish change in open interest in a while.
Tuesday’s Open Interest Changes:
Crude 1,217,100 dn 1,021 Heat 302,303 dn 4,754 RBOB 234,450 dn 596 Nat gas 741,168 up 25,643
CFTC Commitments of Traders for Nymex (for the period ended Tuesday, Dec 8th)
We have changed our section on commitments of traders, and will be modifying into 2010 to deal with new details.
In the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report, on the ICE, Producers added 17,359 new long and added 31,171 short futures contracts. Swap Dealers liquidated 786 long and covered 5,816 short futures contracts. Managed Money liquidated 1,762 longs and covered 9,852 shorts. That shows heavy producer selling. On the Nymex, Managed Money liquidated 11,080 longs and added 11,645 shorts, while Producers added 2,997 longs and added 2,104 shorts. Swap Dealers bought 9,676 longs and added 1,651 shorts, making them the best buyers. Crude oil prices dropped $5.75 over the latest period, so it seems that liquidation and new selling by managed money accounts was the best selling. Other reportables did the best buying as prices dropped, adding 10,082 longs and covering 4,067 shorts. New producer selling was the motive force, and was bearish.
In heating oil, combining all platforms, Managed Money accounts were kicking out both longs and shorts, liquidating 4,091 longs and covering 2,685 shorts. Producers bought into weakness, as prices dropped 8.71 cents, adding 1,233 new longs and only 202 new shorts. Swap Dealers were also buying into the weakness, adding 1,880 new longs and 568 new shorts. Managed money long liquidation was the best selling in this market.
In gasoline, combining all platforms, Producers added 874 longs and covered 14,134 shorts. Swap dealers liquidated 1,217 longs and covered 385 shorts. Managed Money accounts liquidated 11,526 longs and covered 502 new shorts. Other reportables liquidated 838 longs and covered 688 shorts. Here, managed money long liquidation generated the best new selling. In both refined products, it was liquidation of managed money accounts pushing prices lower. It is potentially bullish.
Natural Gas & Utility Generation
Natural gas prices were lower yesterday on profit-taking and light book-squaring ahead of today’s EIA underground storage report. Bloomberg is looking at a drawdown of 176-177 bcf, and Dow Jones is looking for a draw of 176 bcf. Last year, on the same date, there was a draw of 116 bcf, while the five-year average of exact dates is a draw of 127 bcf. Our five-year average, using similar Friday reports, is for a draw of 120.2 bcf. The eight-year average, using the same Friday reports, shows a drawdown of 119.88 bcf. We had a draw of 124 bcf on the similar Friday in our reports..
Some of this has already been built into existing prices. Given the expectations which, if realized, would eat significantly into the surpluses against a year ago and against the five-year average, it was somewhat surprising to see profit-taking yesterday. The fear, perhaps, is that we will get a draw, but that it will not be as dramatic as estimates suggest. In any event, some longs seem to have felt that the outlook was just about as good as it could get and that argued for booking some profits. It is unlikely that these longs liquidated their full lines.
There is a strong likelihood that today’s EIA report will show a draw that will eat into the surplus against a year ago as well as against the five-year average. Even if the reported draw fails to meet expectations, the probability that it will exceed last year’s draw and the multi-year averages has to be seen as a bullish development. The year-to-year stock surpluses have been the most consistently bearish features in this market over the last 18 months. Continuing colder-than-normal weather forecasts suggest that we will see a number of reports that will eat into the surpluses. That makes it much more likely that we will actually reach the upside objective of more than $7.00. As we have noted, the bullish reality of cold weather is that it gets discounted three separate times. It is first discounted as a forecast. It is next discounted as a reality in the present. And it is finally discounted when we look back upon its impact on storage levels.
In cash trading yesterday, Henry Hub prices were at $5.52-$5.96, up $0.05-$0.40 on the day (DJN). SoCal prices were at $5.52-$5.67, down $0.03-$0.06 on the day. El Paso Permian prices were down $0.01-$0.08 at $5.37-$5.47. Katy prices were down $0.02 and up $0.04 at $5.42-$5.60. Waha prices were down $0.02-$0.07 at $5.36-$5.47. Transco 6 was up $1.80-$2.75 to $8.50-$10.75/mmBtu, according to Dow Jones News (DJN). Quotes into the Northeast jumped ahead of bitterly cold readings expected today and over the end of the week.
Palo Verde prices were last quoted at $46.25-$47.25/mwh. Northeastern prices last traded at $47.75-$74.75. Entergy was last at $45.75-$46.25. Ercot was last at $44.25-$45.00/mwh.
Support is at $5.42-$5.44, $5.31-$5.33, $5.19-$5.21, $5.12-$5.14, $4.96-$4.99, $4.83-$4.85, $4.64-$4.66, $4.40-$4.43, $4.15-$4.17, $4.05-$4.08, $3.73-$3.75, $3.66-$3.68, $3.50-$3.53, $3.44-$3.46, $3.28-$3.32, $2.91-$2.93, $2.80-$2.82, $2.74-$2.75, $2.69-$2.70, $2.62-$2.64, and $240-$2.43. Resistance is at $5.54-$5.57, $5.62-$5.63, $5.82-$5.86, $5.96-$6.01, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37, $6.65-$6.69, $6.90-$6.94, $7.01-$7.04, $7.28-$7.31, and $7.34-$7.36.
Jan Natural Gas: Support: $5.42-$5.44, $5.31-$5.33, $5.19-$5.21, $5.12-$5.14, $4.96-$4.99, $4.83-$4.85.
Resistance: $5.54-$5.57, $5.62-$5.63, $5.82-$5.86, $5.96-$6.01, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37.
Natural gas prices sold off slightly yesterday on what looks like profit-taking ahead of today’s EIA report.
Dollars per million Btu
The crude-to-gas ratio ended yesterday at 13.30-to-one, as the ratio rallied. It still looks like it is headed to lower levels.
Dollars per million Btu
EIA Weekly Storage Figures
Last week’s EIA report showed a draw of 64 bcf on expectations for a draw of 47-48 bcf. Stocks are now 472 bcf higher than a year ago, against a surplus of 470 bcf a week ago, a surplus of 404 bcf two weeks ago and a surplus of 347 bcf three weeks ago. Stocks are now 14.30% higher than a year ago. They are 487 bcf and 14.54% above the five-year average.
For this week, the eight-year average was a draw of 119.88 bcf. The five-year average was a draw of 120.2 bcf. Last year, there was a draw of 124 bcf. Estimates are for a draw of 176-177 bcf today.
EIA Report
| Region | 12-04-09 | 11-27-09 | Change | Last Year | 5 Yr Avg |
| Cons East | 2061 | 2092 | dn 31 | 1879 | 1870 |
| Cons West | 517 | 526 | dn 09 | 465 | 436 |
| Producing | 1195 | 1219 | dn 24 | 956 | 954 |
| Total US | 3773 | 3837 | up 64 | 3301 | 3260 |
Bcf, or Billions of cubic feet. Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy
News & Views
| In trading on Nymex, January crude oil prices were down $0.74 at $71.92/barrel at 8:30 AM EST, this morning. January heating oil prices were down 1.98 cents to 1.9460/gallon. January RBOB prices were down 1.68 cents to $1.8571. January natural gas prices were up $0.100 to $5.562/mmBtu. Prices had been higher in trading last night, but they dropped in trading through this morning. Asian equities were lower on an increase in shares, and the dollar continued to make gains, especially against the euro. This week’s DOE report showed improvement (towards the bullish side) in the supply-demand balance, but all of the improvements were relative rather than absolute. Inventories remain on the high side and demand is still well short of being brisk. And, anyone who looked closely at this week’s figures could see that crude inventories declined largely as a result of historically low crude oil imports – which are now well below the “depressed” levels after the hurricanes of 2005. 
Crude oil prices rallied again yesterday in another sharp move led by the January contract. It seems to have been short-covering, and it turns out that Tuesday’s advance had been short-covering. | 
Heating oil prices rallied sharply yesterday, which is what one might expect after prices continually found support at their lower channel line. There is good resistance overhead. Initial jobless claims increased by 7,000 from a revised 473,000 the previous week, the Labor Department reported this morning. The number of people receiving unemployment checks was hardly changed, and the number getting extended benefits increased. Continuing claims increased by 5,000 to 5.19 million. And extended claims increased by 144,000 to 4.73 million. Despite signs across the economy that a recovery is under way, unemployment remains stubbornly high and is acting as a cap on consumer spending. It is this reality that has spurred the Federal Reserve to stick to its guns about maintaining low interest rates for an “extended period.” Yesterday, the Fed promised to keep interest rates “exceptionally low” for “an extended period,” as it noted that “Household spending appears to be expanding at a moderate rate, though it remains constrained by a weak labor market, modest income growth, lower housing wealth and tight credit.” n average was 92.05%. Consumer spending has traditionally accounted for 70% of GDP in the United States. |
| Oil prices burst higher yesterday on a bullish DOE report. | |
This week’s DOE report showed improvement and inventory drawdowns in crude and distillate. Despite these draws, the underlying picture remains soft. Distillate demand jumped 472,000 bpd – but only to 3.792 million bpd. And crude’s draw came as the result of historically low imports.
An Illustrated Look at Energy Market Factors
A Look at the US Dollar Versus the Euro
Dollar-Euro (dollar in euro cents): Six-Month Bar-Chart 
The US dollar was up yet again yesterday, breaking above yet another measure of resistance and putting additional ground between the market and the double lows reached two weeks ago, roughly. This fresh strength did not influence oil trading.
Source: http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forexqkchart&curcode1=USD&curcode2=EUR
A Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (djia)
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Six-Month Chart
The DJIA dropped a little less than 11 points yesterday. The same story that has been the case for a while now was the case again yesterday. Prices could not break to new highs, but they are close enough to do so if the circumstances are right. Equities have not been a big influence 
in oil trading recently.
Source: http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=djia&sid=1643&time=6mo&Submit1=Refresh
A Look at Gasoline Supply & Demand
Thirteen-week gasoline demand came in at 9.010 million bpd, up 0.80%. Thirteen-week supply was 9.827 million bpd, down 0.85%. Thirteen-week implied demand was 9.739 million bpd, up 0.61%.
A Look at Distillate Supply & Demand
Thirteen-week distillate demand came in at 3.537 million bpd, down 10.38%. Thirteen-week supply was 4.129 million bpd, down 6.65%. Thirteen-week implied demand was 4.150 million bpd, down 7.71%.
A Look at Refinery Utilization
Utilization is 4.15% lower than a year ago and 9.90% below the eight-year average. It is 12.10% lower than the four-year, pre-Katrina average and 7.70% below the average after it.
Recommendations for Specific Market Segments
Heating Oil Distributors Heating oil prices bounced higher yesterday, as traders reacted to a move towards the demand side of the supply-demand equation of 696,000 bpd. This is a positive step, but four-week distillate demand remains 6.56% lower than a year ago. Colder weather is clearly having a beneficial effect on demand, but only in relative terms. Even with an increase in demand in this week’s DOE figures of 472,000 bpd, consumption for the latest week stood at 3.792 million bpd, which is still a very low number in absolute terms. In the past, very cold weeks have registered one-week demand figures well in excess of 4.5 million bpd. The demand is getting stronger – but from still very depressed levels. In the past, demand figures under 4 million bpd were dismissed as being anemic. We would hold capped-price protection. We would not buy into strength, but would consider adding wisely on dips. Diesel Users We would hold capped-price protection, adding to it only on dips. NYH Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…194.35-194.60 minus 2.125 USG Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…192.60-193.10 minus 3.750 Jet/Kerosene Users & Airlines New York Harbor cash market differentials were 3.50 to 3.75 cents over January heating oil in NY Harbor and 0.00 to 0.75 over the screen in the US Gulf. Differentials have been volatile lately. Diesel & Gasoline Marketers We want to be hedged against downside risk because of poor fundamental factors. The near-term trend is lower, here. Gasoline Blenders & End-Users We would look to re-enter puts if prices advance more from here. Prices still seem on the high side here. Prompt NYH Fuel Ethanol…..204.00-206.00 Prompt USG Fuel Ethanol….197.00-199.00 Quotes from 12-16-09 Heating Oil End-Users We would hold onto capped-price product, without adding here. Speculators We want to buy puts on any fair rally from here. The momentum lower has stalled, and this could be an opportunity. We would keep positions on the lighter side, now. Refiners The 7:5+2 crack spread was $7.15 yesterday. Crude Oil Producers Crude oil prices rallied yesterday on the stock draw. It came on the back of desperately low crude imports, though, so is not all that bullish in any absolute sense. | Prompt Jet Fuel Prices New York Harbor 200.10-200.35 US Gulf 196.60-197.35 Midwest (Group Three) 197.60-200.60 Midwest (Chicago) 196.60-198.60 Los Angeles 200.00-201.00 San Francisco 200.00-201.00 Portland, Oregon 200.00-201.00 Cents per gallon Wednesday Prices Propane Prices Mont Belvieu……….…..non-TET………$1.148310 Cents per gallon  Gasoline prices rallied slightly yesterday, but, once again, there was very little power behind the advance. There is good support at Friday’s low at 181.24. Prices are likely to have a difficult time breaking back up through the heavy consolidation overhead, which is acting as a bearish factor in this market. Prices do not appear to have any real power here behind the move higher.
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