Prices for December 18th, 2009
| HEATING OIL cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | JAN | 199.26 | 194.55 | 195.67 | dn 00.07 | | FEB | 200.92 | 196.35 | 197.53 | dn 00.10 | | MAR | 202.00 | 197.96 | 198.93 | up 00.01 | | APR | 202.24 | 198.83 | 199.62 | up 00.20 | | MAY | 203.10 | 200.07 | 200.51 | up 00.29 | | JUN | 204.21 | 200.39 | 201.46 | up 00.31 | | JUL | 205.45 | 202.74 | 203.00 | up 00.29 | | AUG | 207.35 | 204.65 | 204.91 | up 00.25 | | SEP | 209.40 | 208.31 | 207.28 | up 00.27 | | OCT | 211.93 | 211.08 | 209.88 | up 00.35 | | NOV | 214.35 | 214.06 | 212.38 | up 00.43 | | DEC | 216.75 | 214.50 | 214.88 | up 00.51 | | Estimated Volume (day before) total all prev day 106,357 | | NYMEX CRUDE OIL dollars per barrel | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | JAN | 74.69 | 72.55 | 73.36 | up 00.71 | | FEB | 75.65 | 73.55 | 74.42 | up 00.34 | | MAR | 76.33 | 74.37 | 75.23 | up 00.34 | | APR | 76.90 | 75.24 | 75.99 | up 00.43 | | MAY | 77.41 | 75.77 | 76.68 | up 00.52 | | JUN | 78.04 | 76.43 | 77.33 | up 00.58 | | | | | | | | | Estimated Volume… 544,392 Opec Basket…$71.77 dn $0.40
Prompt #2 Oil NYH 88..-2.75 to -2.50, 74 Lo S…-2.50 to -2.00
US Gulf 88 grade…-4.50 to -4.00, 74 grade Lo S…-4.50 to -4.00 Group .........-3.00 to -2.50 Lo S.....-3.00 to -2.50
Chicago ......-8.00 to -7.50
cash quotes by Dow Jones | | | |
| NYMEX RBOB GASOLINE cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | JAN | 190.28 | 184.60 | 189.48 | up 04.28 | | FEB | 192.58 | 187.20 | 191.71 | up 03.87 | | MAR | 194.80 | 190.97 | 193.96 | up 03.52 | | APR | 206.50 | 202.95 | 205.58 | up 03.15 | | MAY | 207.26 | 204.61 | 206.64 | up 02.87 | | JUN | 208.38 | 205.26 | 207.54 | up 02.55 | | JUL | 208.00 | 205.99 | 207.77 | up 02.42 | | AUG | ---.-- | ---.-- | ---.-- | -- --.-- | | Estimated RB Volume day before 83,591 | | NYMEX NATURAL GAS dollars per mmBtu | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | JAN | 5.926 | 5.727 | 5.782 | up 0.014 | | FEB | 5.958 | 5.775 | 5.829 | up 0.029 | | MAR | 5.916 | 5.757 | 5.805 | up 0.018 | | APR | 5.878 | 5.724 | 5.778 | up 0.021 | | | Estimated Volume…day before (405,453)
Nymex statistics are based on composite Access & Day Sessions
Prompt Gasoline NYH M5 -1.25 /-1.00 RBOB +6.00 /+6.50
US Gulf M4: -4.25 to -4.00 RBOB +1.25 to +1.50
L.A. Conv Reg 203.00-204.00, N-grade Group 182.70-182.95 Chi 180.70-181.20 | |
Market Review for Friday & over the Weekend
HERE was a report out Friday morning, apparently from roughly two weeks ago, that fighting had erupted between Iranian and Iraqi forces over a disputed oil well run currently by Iraq. Iranian forces reportedly occupied the well, although why the news was coming out two weeks after the fact is a question. Arguments over wells are not altogether uncommon; Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have the neutral zone, an area that the two have been unable to agree over sovereignty. And Iraq accused Kuwait of stealing oil from a field straddling their border back in 1990, although that did not work out well for oil prices. It was the latter instance that seems to have captivated the imaginations of traders. The fact that the news came out on the Friday before Christmas week only added to the urge to cover shorts. Traders covered shorts first and asked questions afterwards, but oil prices soared $2.00 a barrel before the reassessment brought them back to less lofty heights. The timing of the report made a number of fundamental bears suspicious.
| Fuel for Thought Friday’s reports of an Iranian incursion into Iraq is less significant as its own event than as another in a chain of events that seem to be bringing Iran into sharper relief. On Sunday, the Wall Street Journal reported that a plane, loaded with 35 tons of arms, was impounded in Bangkok, Thailand. The flight had originated in North Korea and was reportedly bound for Teheran, as its final destination. It had planned to refuel in Sri Lanka, the UAE and Ukraine before finally unloading in Iran. Late yesterday, Iraq reported that the Iranian forces in control of the Iraqi well had withdrawn “50 meters” and taken their flag. Iraqi workers returned yesterday. This is not the last we will hear of Iran, especially in 2010. |
The dollar finished near unchanged on Friday, but it gained dramatically over the course of the week. Oil prices did not follow the dollar as automatically as they seem to when the dollar is weak, but that is the result of the long-only nature of the ETF’s used by investors who watch the dollar for cues on oil. At least they were not buying last week.
We did have short-covering, and there was light, new buying and bargain-hunting in response to lower crude and distillate inventories and because of the brutally cold weather experienced recently across the North. It is expected to persist through the end of December and into January, and that is seen as potentially bullish for consumption.
This is certainly true, but a quick look at inventories charts clues us in to the reality of existing heavy stocks. They are starting to come more into line with levels seen a year ago, not because drawdowns have been that special but because the numbers from a year ago were quite high in their own right.
As we start this new week, we have the January crude oil contract expiration this afternoon. Traders will be waiting for this week’s DOE report, and Opec meets, although the consensus is that quotas will be left unchanged.
Technicals
Oil prices were mostly higher on Friday, but heating oil prices were up the least while gasoline prices gained the most. That has all the earmarks of book-squaring ahead of Christmas week. Traders seem to have been covering shorts in gasoline and liquidating longs in heating oil. And they continued buying January and selling February crude.
Dollars per barrel
Above: The contango has dropped steeply over the last few days as longs have liquidated February and bought back January contracts.
January crude oil now has buy-stops over $74.70, $76.10, $77.90, $78.59, $79.05, $79.95, $80.33-$80.52, $81.06, $81.58, $82.00, $84.83, and $85.13. Sell-stops are under $72.55, $71.20, $70.55, $69.30, $68.55, $68.00, $65.80-$66.20, and $64.95. January heating oil has buy-stops over 199.26, 200.85, 202.50, 204.75, 208.80, 209.70, 210.00, 211.17, 212.12, 216.07, 225.80, 227.05, 229.08, 238.95, 249.62, and 251.50. Sell stops are under 194.55, 192.70, 191.00, 190.00, 189.55, 188.70, 187.00, 186.50, 182.63, 177.00, 176.68, 173.75, 171.10, 170.35, 168.60, 167.65, and 166.90. January RBOB has buy-stops over 190.30, 188.50, 189.80, 192.80, 195.41, 198.60, 204.10, 206.15, 207.62, 209.53, 211.24, 214.00, 222.70, and 228.86. Sell-stops are under 184.60, 182.40, 181.20, 179.20, 177.30, 175.14, 171.40, 170.25, and 168.85.
Football: The bears turned over the ball to the bulls, who start the week with first down.
Technical Support & Resistance
Jan crude oil Support: $72.55-$72.70, $71.20-$71.30, $70.55-$70.65, $69.30-$69.45, $68.55-$68.70.
Resistance: $74.60-$74.70, $75.90-$76.10, $77.75-$77.90, $78.45-$78.60, $79.00-$79.05.
Jan heating oil Support: 194.55-194.70, 192.70-192.85, 191.00-191.15, 190.00-190.20, 188.70-188.90.
Resistance: 199.10-199.26, 200.70-200.85, 202.35-202.50, 204.60-204.75, 208.65-208.80.
Jan Rbob Support: 184.60-184.75, 182.40-182.60, 181.20-181.35, 179.20-179.35, 177.30-177.45.
Resistance: 190.15-190.30, 192.65-192.80, 195.16-195.41, 198.50-198.60, 203.90-204.10.
Oil Inventory Reports
This week’s DOE report will be the turning point in terms of volume and attendance. By noon on Wednesday, many traders, brokers and analysts will square up their books for Christmas Weekend and that will be it for the week and, in some cases, the year. Market observers will watch for additional draws in crude oil and distillate stocks, and crude imports will play a big role in determining how large a crude draw there is likely to be. With builds last year in distillate and gasoline inventories, declines in those this week will eat into the year-on-year surpluses. See page 8 for more on inventories.
Last Week’s Inventory Comparison: Distillate stocks are now 25.3 million bbls, or 18.19%, higher than a year ago. Heating oil inventories are 6.5 mln bbls, or 15.55%, higher than they were a year ago. Gasoline stocks are 10.3 mln bbls (up 4.98%) higher against a year ago. Crude oil stocks are now 9.5 million bbls, or 2.94%, higher than a year ago. Residual stocks are 1.3 mln bbls (3.44%) lower than a year ago, jet fuel stocks are 3.1 mln bbls, (8.18%) higher than a year ago. Utilization is 4.15% lower than a year ago and 9.90% below the eight-year average. It is 12.10% lower than the four-year, pre-Katrina average and 7.70% below the average after it.
Last Week’s Demand: Four-week, total refined products demand came in at 18.766 million bpd, up 0.267 mln bbls on the week, and down 0.318 mln bpd and 1.67% against a year ago. Nine weeks ago, it was 0.900 mln bpd and 5.03% higher than a year ago. Four-week gasoline demand is at 9.003 mln bpd, up 1.02%, compared to up 6.23% nine weeks ago. Four-week distillate demand is now at 3.588 mln bpd, down 6.56%, compared to down 14.80% five weeks ago. Four-week jet demand is now at 1.490 mln bpd, up 0.70%, compared to up 0.14% a week ago and 1.61% two weeks ago. Four-week residual fuel demand is at 0.505 mln bpd, up 4.63%, compared to down 1.19% four weeks ago. Propane use is up 17.07%, at 1.440 mln bpd, compared to being up 17.63% four weeks ago. Demand was higher across the board.
Last Week’s API Report: This week’s API report showed a build of 0.924 mln bbls in crude oil stocks, a draw of 2.604 mln bbls in distillate stocks and a build of 2.074 mln bbls in gasoline inventories. Utilization was down 2.8% to 78.6%. Implied demand came in at 9.356 mln bpd in gasoline and at 4.385 mln bpd in distillate. Crude oil imports dropped 0.688 mln bpd to 8.853 mln bpd, which helped to build crude oil stocks. The jump in crude stocks and drop in utilization were unexpected.
DOE Weekly Inventory Statistics
| Category | Final DOE Estimate
This Week’s Estimate | History
Last Year’s Report | Most Recent Changes
Last Week’s DOE Report | Versus A Year Ago
Millions of Barrels |
| Distillate | dn 2.50 to 3.00 mln bbls | up 1.814 | dn 2.954 mln bbls | up 25.300 |
| Gasoline | up 1.25 to 1.75 | up 3.336 | up 0.879 | up 10.300 |
| Crude oil | dn 1.00 to 2.00 | dn 3.101 | dn 3.689 | up 9.500 |
| Utilization | up 0.0% to 0.5% | up 0.6% at 84.7% | dn 1.10% at 79.95% | |
| Crude Imports | up 0.250 to 0.750 mmbd | dn 0.555 to 9.118 | dn 0.365 to 7.772 mln bpd | |
| DOE Distillate Demand | 3.792 mln bpd | up 472,000 | Gasoline Demand | 8.963 mln bpd | dn 049,000 |
| DOE Distillate Production | 3.726 mln bpd | dn 268,000 | Gasoline Production | 9.097 mln bpd | dn 066,000 |
| DOE Distillate Imports | 0.229 mln bpd | up 044,000 | Gasoline Imports | 0.967 mln bpd | up 217,000 |
Source: US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration
Open Interest Analysis
Crude oil open interest fell by 31,588 contracts on Thursday, when prices were lower. That looks like heavy long liquidation, which would be supportive, although most of the liquidation was expiration-related.
Heating oil open interest fell by 96 contracts on Thursday, when prices were lower. That looks like very light long liquidation and is mildly supportive.
RBOB open interest grew by 3,585 contracts on Thursday when prices were lower. That looks like new selling, which would be bearish. Gasoline has been the most bearish of the complex – for the most part.
Natural gas open interest grew by 9,539 on Thursday, when prices were higher. That looks like new buying, which would be supportive.
Thursday’s Open Interest Changes:
Crude 1,186,571 dn 31,588 Heat 305,939 dn 96 RBOB 237,770 up 3,585 Nat gas 737,391 up 9,539
CFTC Commitments of Traders for Nymex (for the period ended Tuesday, Dec 8th)
Crude oil prices dropped $1.93/bbl over the latest reporting period, and the best selling came from swap dealers, who sold 16,029 contracts. Producers liquidated 8,889 contracts, while managed money accounts bought 4,013 lots and covered 4,889 contracts. Other reportables took that same approach, buying 6,197 and covering 6,053 contracts. Without the swap selling, prices might have rallied, instead.
In heating oil futures, prices dropped 8.76 cents a gallon, and it was managed money that sold 4,107 contracts and liquidated 3,393. Producers were liquidating 5,216, but they covered 9,944. Swap dealers bought 5,689 and covered 216. Other reportables bought 2,162 and sold 261. It was the managed money selling that pushed quotes lower.
Gasoline prices were down 7.95 cents a gallon during the period under review. Swap dealers and other reportables had net changes of less than 372 contracts on both sides of the market. Producers liquidated 217 longs, but covered 4,933 shorts. Managed money, without the benefit of a weaker dollar, had no reason to buy, and they were liquidating 3,688 longs and sold 236 new shorts. That selling pushed quotes lower.
In natural gas, producers added 4,732 longs and 8,177 shorts. Swap dealers liquidated 11,287 longs and added 1,191 shorts. Managed money added 5,045 longs and covered 14,413 shorts. That buying was huge. Other reportables liquidated 1,519 and sold 4,887 contracts. Prices gained 40.9 cents, and managed money was the best buying and short-covering source.
Natural Gas & Utility Generation
Natural gas prices gained only about a penny and a half on Friday in lively two-way trading that had its share of long liquidation and profit-taking. There was still a good undercurrent of buying interest on cold weather, and there was short-covering, but after a week of solid gains, some of the longs decided to book profits before this holiday-shortened week. Many traders will be taking the second half of the week off, while still others will be taking the whole week. In most years, Christmas week and New Year’s week are two of the quietest weeks of the year. We should expect volume to contract and get lighter as we move through the week.
It will be difficult for the bears to build on Friday’s weakness. Temperature forecasts remain on the decidedly colder side, and we had heavy snowfall over the weekend across the very broadest interpretation of the Ohio River Valley, from the Mississippi to the Atlantic. The National Weather Service and a number of private forecasters are calling for colder than normal readings across the broad continental United States east of the Rocky Mountains. Some forecasters suggest near normal readings at times in New England, but snow cover is going to have a chilling effect on the air even if it starts out nearer normal. Most forecasters agree that we should have colder readings through the end of the year.
Some attributed Friday’s decline to the fact that underground storage levels remain at rather high levels. They are still well above year-ago and five-year average levels. But … last week’s unexpectedly large drawdown took underground storage levels from 472 bcf (14.30%) higher than a year ago to 381 bcf (11.96%) higher. Against the five-year average, they are 433 bcf and 13.82% higher, compared to the week before last, when they were 487 bcf (14.54%) above the five-year average. We would not expect to see drawdowns come in as much more than estimates as last week’s did; we expect there was a certain amount of restocking at ‘secondary’ storage facilities. But, sustained cold weather will eat into underground storage steadily. It is possible that last week’s drawdown has neutralized storage as a bearish factor in this market for the next week or two. If the next draw exceeds estimates by as much, storage will cease to be a major bearish factor over the near term because traders will expect larger-than-estimated drawdowns.
In cash trading on Friday, Henry Hub prices were at $5.80-$5.95, up $0.20-$0.20 on the day (DJN). SoCal prices were at $5.75-$5.85, up $0.00-$0.25 on the day. El Paso Permian prices were up $0.11-$0.19 at $5.54-$5.66. Katy prices were up $0.21-$0.23 to $5.76-$5.88. Waha prices were up $0.15-$0.26 at $5.64-$5.80. Transco 6 was down $0.05 and up $0.24 to $8.20-$9.00/mmBtu, according to Dow Jones News (DJN). Cash prices normally weaken slightly before the weekend, but they were quite steady this past Friday.
Palo Verde prices were last quoted at $48.50-$50.00/mwh. Northeastern prices last traded at $52.75-$81.75. Entergy was last at $47.00-$48.00. Ercot was last at $44.50-$45.00/mwh.
Support is at $5.72-$5.73, $5.42-$5.45, $5.31-$5.33, $5.19-$5.21, $5.12-$5.14, $4.96-$4.99, $4.83-$4.85, $4.64-$4.66, $4.40-$4.43, $4.15-$4.17, $4.05-$4.08, $3.73-$3.75, $3.66-$3.68, $3.50-$3.53, $3.44-$3.46, $3.28-$3.32, $2.91-$2.93, $2.80-$2.82, $2.74-$2.75, $2.69-$2.70, $2.62-$2.64, and $240-$2.43. Resistance is at $5.91-$5.92, $5.96-$6.01, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37, $6.65-$6.69, $6.90-$6.94, $7.01-$7.04, $7.28-$7.31, and $7.34-$7.36.
Jan Natural Gas: Support: $5.72-$5.73, $5.42-$5.45, $5.31-$5.33, $5.19-$5.21, $5.12-$5.14, $4.96-$4.99.
Resistance: $5.91-$5.93, $5.96-$6.01, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37, $6.65-$6.69, $6.90-$6.94.
Natural gas prices sold off slightly on Friday on profit-taking ahead of Christmas week.
Dollars per million Btu
Natural gas prices are overbought, here. They can still advance further, but it may get more difficult.
Dollars per million Btu
EIA Weekly Storage Figures
Last week’s EIA report showed a draw of 207 bcf on expectations for a draw of 176-177 bcf. Stocks are now 381 bcf higher than a year ago, against a surplus of 472 bcf a week ago, a surplus of 470 bcf two weeks ago and a surplus of 404 bcf three weeks ago. Stocks are now 11.96% higher than a year ago. They are 433 bcf and 13.82% above the five-year average.
For this week, the eight-year average was a draw of 128.13 bcf. The five-year average was a draw of 139.6 bcf. Last year, there was a draw of 147 bcf. Any build of more than 150 bcf will eat further into the surpluses.
EIA Report
| Region | 12-11-09 | 12-04-09 | Change | Last Year | 5 Yr Avg |
| Cons East | 1968 | 2061 | dn 93 | 1793 | 1789 |
| Cons West | 478 | 517 | dn 39 | 456 | 421 |
| Producing | 1120 | 1195 | dn 75 | 936 | 923 |
| Total US | 3566 | 3773 | up 207 | 3185 | 3133 |
Bcf, or Billions of cubic feet. Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy
News & Views
| In trading on Nymex, January crude oil prices were down $0.06 at $73.30/barrel at 10:30 PM EST, last night. January heating oil prices were up 1.21 cents to 1.9688/gallon. January RBOB prices were up 0.16 cents to $1.8964. January natural gas prices were up $0.062 to $5.844/mmBtu. Prices were mostly higher in early trading last night, on relatively quiet volume and cautious, conservative activity. Crude oil prices made it to the retracement zone of $73.81-$75.05, which is the 50% to 61.8% retracement zone of the move from $79.05 to $68.59. If one uses $82.00 as the high point, the maximum retracement point would be $76.88. A close over that would end any chance of this being a rally retracement and would tell us prices are headed back up. A failure to advance above $75.05 (or $76.88 definitively) would suggest that the downtrend is back in full swing. We need to watch that this week because holiday weeks can start trends. 
Crude oil prices finished higher on Friday, although prices rallied sharply in the morning, but sold off later in the session. Prices may rally more, but we do not feel the trend down has changed – yet. | 
Heating oil prices were nearly unchanged on Friday, which is peculiar, given recent temperature forecasts. We do not believe that heating oil has fully made up its mind on direction here. DOE History: Distillate stocks have fallen in five of the last eight years, by an average of 1.700 mln bbls. The eight-year average is a draw of 0.748 mln bbls. Gasoline stocks rose in six of the last eight years, for a six-year average build of 1.806 mln bbls and an eight-year average build of 0.792 mln bbls. Crude oil stocks have been lower in four of the last eight years for a four-year average draw of 3.825 mln bbls and it has an eight-year average draw of 1.275 mln bbls. Utilization has been higher in five of the last eight years and has an eight-year average decrease of 0.04%, and it has an eight-year average utilization figure of 89.79%. The four-year, pre-hurricane utilization average was 91.43%. Since Katrina, refineries have run at an average utilization rate of 88.15%. Crude oil imports have been higher in four of the last six years, and the average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been up 65,000 bpd. The average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been 9.737 million bpd. |
| Crude oil faces its retracement zone during a normally quiet week. | |
Tuesday’s report will be our final report for the week, unless something requires comment. This year, more than many others, we need to make time to spend with family and friends this Christmas. If anyone needs our help, we will be available. Otherwise, we wish all of our readers the very best Christmas possible. Hanukah is over, and we hope it was enjoyable for those who celebrated the Festival of Lights. Happy New Year to Moslems. And, Happy Winter Solstice, which is today. We offer our warmest Seasons Greetings to All! Whatever one celebrates, our kindest wishes are extended to all.
An Illustrated Look at Energy Market Factors
A Look at the US Dollar Versus the Euro
Dollar-Euro (dollar in euro cents): Six-Month Bar-Chart 
The US dollar was lower Thursday night into Friday morning, but prices broke higher before finishing near unchanged on the day. It was an impressively strong week for the dollar. Despite that, oil prices did not react to the stronger dollar with any of the regularity with which they reacted to a weaker one.
Source: http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forexqkchart&curcode1=USD&curcode2=EUR
A Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (djia)
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Six-Month Chart
The DJIA were up more than 20 points on Friday, but they are still below their highs and seem to be caught within a broad consolidation. While they were generally weaker last week, they are still within range of making new highs fairly easily.
Source: http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=djia&sid=1643&time=6mo&Submit1=Refresh
A Look at Selected Charts
Gasoline inventories are their highest in five years for this time of year. The five-year average is 205.052 million barrels, which leaves us 5.93% above that average (2004 through 2008).
| Year | Gasoline Stocks | Distillate Stocks | Crude Oil Stocks |
| 2009 | 217,213 | 164,363 | 332,387 |
| 2008 | 203,959 | 133,523 | 321,289 |
| 2007 | 205,200 | 129,400 | 296,900 |
| 2006 | 199,900 | 131,900 | 335,400 |
| 2005 | 204,400 | 130,500 | 321,200 |
| 2004 | 211,800 | 117,900 | 285,700 |
| | | | |
| Average (2004 – 2008) | 205,052 | 128,645 | 312,098 |
| | | | |
| Percentage 2009 above average | 5.93% | 27.77% | 6.50% |
As the table above illustrates, current inventory levels are now 27.77% above the five-year average for this time of year. This year’s figure is 18.19% above last year’s figure, in gasoline stocks are now 4.98% higher than a year ago, and crude oil stocks are 2.94% above a year ago. Against the five-year averages, inventories now are well above the year-on-year figures.
Recommendations for Specific Market Segments
Heating Oil Distributors Heating oil prices were slightly lower in the front months and higher in the deferred months as traders seem to have squared books ahead of the weekend and Christmas week. We had had good buying earlier in the day, on the Iran-Iraq fears, but as the day wore on, traders looked increasingly to the details of preparing themselves for time off with family this week. As a result, we saw the opposite of what we had seen, for the most part, through the week. It should be a relatively quiet week, but these holiday weeks have an uncanny way of starting new trends, so we need to be on the watch for that kind of activity or behavior. We would keep our capped price protection in place and we would be sensitive to the possibility that prices could solidify or anchor a new trend this week. If you are at risk, shore it up early on. Diesel Users We would hold capped-price protection, adding to it on dips. NYH Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…193.65-194.15 minus 1.750 USG Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…191.65-191.90 minus 3.875 Jet/Kerosene Users & Airlines New York Harbor cash market differentials were 4.00 to 4.25 cents over January heating oil in NY Harbor and 0.50 under to even with the screen in the US Gulf. Diesel & Gasoline Marketers We want to be hedged against downside risk because of poor fundamental factors. The near-term trend is lower, here. Gasoline Blenders & End-Users We would look to re-enter puts here. Prices still seem on the high side here. Prompt NYH Fuel Ethanol…..203.00-205.00 Prompt USG Fuel Ethanol….193.00-196.00 Quotes from 12-18-09 Heating Oil End-Users We would hold onto capped-price product, adding on dips. Speculators We want to buy puts on any fair rally from here. We do need to be aware of the history of trends to get started or cemented in place during holiday weeks. Refiners The 7:5+2 crack spread was $6.96 on Friday. Crude Oil Producers Crude oil prices were higher on Friday, in what seems to have been short-covering ahead of Christmas week. | Prompt Jet Fuel Prices New York Harbor 199.65-199.90 US Gulf 195.15-195.65 Midwest (Group Three) 196.75-199.75 Midwest (Chicago) 194.75-196.75 Los Angeles 196.00-199.00 San Francisco 196.00-198.00 Portland, Oregon 196.00-199.00 Cents per gallon Wednesday Prices Propane Prices Mont Belvieu……….…..non-TET………$1.176500 Cents per gallon  Gasoline prices advanced strongly on Friday, more than heating oil or crude. That suggests heavy short-covering on Friday, as it seems that traders were getting out of positions before Christmas week. Friday’s activity was the opposite of what we had been seeing over the course of the week.
|
We will be taking off Wednesday and Thursday this week to celebrate Christmas with family and friends. If anyone needs us, we will be available, but Tuesday’s report will be our last report this week, unless something happens demanding comment.
~Merry Christmas!~