Prices for December 24th, 2009
| HEATING OIL cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | JAN | 204.05 | 199.80 | 203.56 | up 02.38 | | FEB | 206.10 | 201.88 | 205.62 | up 02.33 | | MAR | 207.30 | 203.73 | 206.89 | up 02.25 | | APR | 207.72 | 204.52 | 207.36 | up 02.22 | | MAY | 208.44 | 206.75 | 208.02 | up 02.19 | | JUN | 208.50 | 206.10 | 208.78 | up 02.17 | | JUL | 209.34 | 208.46 | 210.43 | up 02.23 | | AUG | 211.71 | 210.37 | 212.23 | up 02.25 | | SEP | ---.-- | ---.-- | ---.-- | -- --.-- | | OCT | ---.-- | ---.-- | ---.-- | -- --.-- | | NOV | ---.-- | ---.-- | ---.-- | -- --.-- | | DEC | 221.83 | 219.28 | 221.83 | up 02.35 | | Estimated Volume (day before) total all prev day 101,712 | | NYMEX CRUDE OIL dollars per barrel | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | FEB | 78.25 | 76.19 | 78.05 | up 01.38 | | MAR | 78.84 | 76.78 | 78.66 | up 01.41 | | APR | 79.49 | 77.42 | 79.32 | up 01.46 | | MAY | 79.98 | 78.03 | 79.86 | up 01.43 | | JUN | 80.45 | 78.51 | 80.37 | up 01.40 | | JUL | 80.56 | 79.07 | 80.93 | up 01.42 | | | | | | | | | Estimated Volume… 384,835 Opec Basket…$71.78 up $0.01
Prompt #2 Oil NYH 88..-2.25 to -1.75, 74 Lo S…-1.75 to -1.25
US Gulf 88 grade…-4.75 to -4.25, 74 grade Lo S…-4.50 to -4.00 Group .........-3.00 to -2.50 Lo S.....-3.00 to -2.50
Chicago ......-8.25 to -7.50
cash quotes by Dow Jones | | | |
| NYMEX RBOB GASOLINE cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | JAN | 199.40 | 194.59 | 198.96 | up 02.30 | | FEB | 201.35 | 196.78 | 201.06 | up 02.38 | | MAR | 203.45 | 198.85 | 203.14 | up 02.49 | | APR | 213.61 | 211.35 | 213.93 | up 02.36 | | MAY | 213.85 | 211.10 | 214.73 | up 02.36 | | JUN | 215.67 | 212.98 | 215.37 | up 02.36 | | JUL | 214.65 | 214.54 | 215.37 | up 02.27 | | AUG | ---.-- | ---.-- | ---.-- | -- --.-- | | Estimated RB Volume day before 73,689 | | NYMEX NATURAL GAS dollars per mmBtu | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | JAN | 5.926 | 5.600 | 5.643 | dn 0.178 | | FEB | 5.984 | 5.665 | 5.698 | dn 0.186 | | MAR | 5.940 | 5.652 | 5.686 | dn 0.166 | | APR | 5.895 | 5.631 | 5.665 | dn 0.146 | | | Estimated Volume…day before (180,856)
Nymex statistics are based on composite Access & Day Sessions
Prompt Gasoline NYH M5 -1.00 /-0.50 RBOB +6.00 /+6.50
US Gulf M4: -4.50 to -4.00 RBOB +4.45 to +4.55
L.A. Conv Reg 203.00-204.00, N-grade Group 183.65-183.90 Chi 184.15-184.90 | |
Market Review for Thursday & over the Christmas Weekend
RICES were higher last week, as the bulls used the lighter volume to lift quotes. As we have noted, this complex has a long history of making moves and turns during holiday weeks because it requires less activity to move prices. They often use these periods to “paint” the charts, and when everyone comes back they take the new reality at face value, starting from wherever prices are. We pretty much knew that the bulls were better organized than the bears.
Last week proves the point. Despite the sudden lack of a weak US dollar to inspire investors, the big money interests, which are long in this market, used last week’s lighter volume to push the markets higher. Our expectation is that they will do it again this week. Those traders who did not take time off during Christmas week are likely to take time this week, and some who did take time off will take time again this week. Volume will diminish as the week wears on, giving the bulls another chance to assault the $82 level and possibly even break it.
| Fuel for Thought In a counteroffer to a Western proposal, Iran has offered to exchange uranium on Turkish soil. Foreign Minister Manoucher Mottaki said Iran has “no problem with Turkish soil” as the location for the swap. Iran has wanted the swap on Iranian territory until this proposal. The exchange would leave Iran without enough fuel to build a nuclear weapon and, when it is returned, it will be in the form of enriched rods that will only be of use in the production of nuclear energy. There is another wrinkle. “They have to do the trust-building,” Mr Mottaki said of the West, before any deal is possible, “Threat and sanctions are useless,” he said. The US Senate is planning January to give President Obama the ability to impose new sanctions on Iran. |
The dollar was slightly lower on Thursday, while equities were higher, and investors were reportedly buying on the combination. Of course, oil prices never really fully discounted the strength seen over the previous two to three weeks in the US dollar, so if investors really were buying on a weaker dollar, they have an awfully selective and relativistic approach to trading. Recent declines in American oil inventories were also cited, making last week’s gains an exercise in self-delusion based entirely on relative changes that seem to work in only one direction.
That does tell us something, though. The bulls are clearly stronger or have more money than the bears. We have known they are better organized for a while, now. They have found a way to ignore increases in oil inventories or strength in the US dollar. When either of those declines, though, the bulls use them as a cover story for their buying.
So, why are they really buying? Because their investment banking advisors are telling them they need to have a percentage of their investments in commodities. And because there is a lingering belief that huge government debts will ultimately lead to much higher inflation – which could end up right.
Technicals
The oil complex moved higher at the end of last week, and that tells us a story. It tells us that the bulls are better organized and more aggressive than the bears. They used selective, relative factors to boost prices, and we should expect this complex to follow this pattern again this week, which is expected to be a copy of last week’s in terms of volume.
Cents per gallon
Above: Heating oil prices bounced higher on Thursday after finding support at a channel line.
February crude oil now has buy-stops over $78.25-$78.60, $79.05, $79.95, $80.33-$80.52, $81.06, $81.58, $82.00, $84.83, and $85.13. Sell-stops are under $76.00, $74.25, $72.70, $71.99, $71.20, $70.55, $69.30, $68.55, $68.00, $65.80-$66.20, and $64.95. January heating oil has buy-stops over 204.05, 204.75, 208.80, 209.70, 210.00, 211.17, 212.12, 216.07, 225.80, 227.05, 229.08, 238.95, 249.62, and 251.50. Sell stops are under 199.80, 195.00, 191.00, 190.00, 189.55, 188.70, 187.00, 186.50, 182.63, 177.00, 176.68, 173.75, 171.10, 170.35, 168.60, 167.65, and 166.90. January RBOB has buy-stops over 199.40, 204.10, 206.15, 207.62, 209.53, 211.24, 214.00, 222.70, and 228.86. Sell-stops are under 194.55, 189.65, 185.00-185.15, 184.60, 182.40, 181.20, 179.20, 177.30, 175.14, 171.40, 170.25, and 168.85.
Football: The bulls got back-to-back first downs on Wednesday and Thursday, making it the bulls’ first down this week.
Technical Support & Resistance
Feb crude oil Support: $76.00-$76.20, $74.25-$74.40, $72.70-$72.85, $71.95-$72.10, $71.20-$71.30.
Resistance: $78.25-$78.60, $79.00-$79.05, $79.80-$79.95, $80.30-$80.55, $80.95-$81.10.
Jan heating oil Support: 199.80-200.00, 195.00-195.20, 193.45-193.60, 192.70-192.85, 191.00-191.15.
Resistance: 203.90-204.05, 204.60-204.75, 208.65-208.80, 209.70-210.00, 210.95-211.17.
Jan Rbob Support: 194.55-194.70, 189.65-189.80, 185.65-185.75, 184.60-184.75, 182.40-182.60.
Resistance: 199.25-199.40, 203.90-204.10, 206.00-206.15, 207.50-207.62, 209.40-209.53.
Oil Inventory Reports
This week’s DOE report will be the major focus of the week, again, and traders are likely to revolve their trading around its release. Recent reports have shown a steady decline in the year-on-year surpluses, but part of that comes from last year’s figures. As an example, crude oil stocks a year ago were 30 million barrels above year earlier levels; last week they were 3.6 million barrels higher. The end result is that last week’s crude oil figure was still 33.6 million barrels higher than it was two years ago. Right now, the numbers are all about low refining rates and the low imports needed to prevent stocks from building.
Last Week’s Inventory Comparison: Distillate stocks are now 19.9 million bbls, or 14.07%, higher than a year ago. Heating oil inventories are 4.7 mln bbls, or 11.30%, higher than they were a year ago. Gasoline stocks are 7.2 mln bbls (up 3.44%) higher against a year ago. Crude oil stocks are now 3.6 million bbls, or 1.11%, higher than a year ago. Residual stocks are 0.2 mln bbls (0.54%) lower than a year ago, jet fuel stocks are 3.1 mln bbls, (8.18%) higher than a year ago. Utilization is 4.70% lower than a year ago and 9.79% below the eight-year average. It is 11.43% lower than the four-year, pre-Katrina average and 8.15% below the average of the four years since the big hurricanes (Katrina & Rita) in 2005.
Last Week’s Demand: Four-week, total refined products demand came in at 18.905 million bpd, up 0.139 mln bbls on the week, and down 0.202 mln bpd and 1.06% against a year ago. Ten weeks ago, it was 0.900 mln bpd and 5.03% higher than a year ago. Four-week gasoline demand is at 8.991 mln bpd, up 0.82%, compared to up 6.23% 10 weeks ago. Four-week distillate demand is now at 3.670 mln bpd, down 3.88%, compared to down 14.80% six weeks ago. Four-week jet demand is now at 1.464 mln bpd, up 3.61%, compared to up 0.14% two weeks ago and 1.61% three weeks ago. Four-week residual fuel demand is at 0.497 mln bpd, down 24.92%, compared to down 1.19% five weeks ago. Propane use is up 17.35%, at 1.495 mln bpd, compared to being up 17.63% five weeks ago. Demand is getting stronger.
Last Week’s API Report: Last week’s API report showed a draw of 3.707 mln bbls in crude oil stocks, a draw of 0.745 mln bbls in distillate stocks and a draw of 1.096 mln bbls in gasoline inventories. Utilization was down 0.2% to 78.4%. Implied demand came in at 9.515 mln bpd in gasoline and at 4.237 mln bpd in distillate. Crude oil imports were up 0.127 mln bpd to 8.980 mln bpd, which was still low enough to help draw down inventories. Imports and runs are way down historically.
DOE Weekly Inventory Statistics
| Category | Final DOE Estimate
This Week’s Estimate | History
Last Year’s Report | Most Recent Changes
Last Week’s DOE Report | Versus A Year Ago
Millions of Barrels |
| Distillate | dn 2.00 to 2.50 mln bbls | up 1.814 | dn 3.027 mln bbls | up 19.900 |
| Gasoline | up 1.25 to 1.75 | up 3.336 | dn 0.883 | up 7.200 |
| Crude oil | dn 2.00 to 3.00 | dn 3.101 | dn 4.841 | up 3.600 |
| Utilization | up 0.0% to 0.5% | up 0.6% at 84.7% | up 0.05% at 80.00% | |
| Crude Imports | up 0.000 to 0.500 mmbd | dn 0.555 to 9.118 | dn 0.065 to 7.707 mln bpd | |
| DOE Distillate Demand | 3.988 mln bpd | up 196,000 | Gasoline Demand | 9.045 mln bpd | up 082,000 |
| DOE Distillate Production | 3.806 mln bpd | up 008,000 | Gasoline Production | 8.963 mln bpd | dn 134,000 |
| DOE Distillate Imports | 0.335 mln bpd | up 106,000 | Gasoline Imports | 0.848 mln bpd | dn 119,000 |
Source: US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration
Open Interest Analysis
Crude oil open interest grew by 14,248 contracts on Wednesday, when prices were higher. That looks like heavy new buying, which would be supportive.
Heating oil open interest grew by 4,350 contracts on Wednesday, when prices were higher. That looks like good, new buying and is supportive.
RBOB open interest grew by 3,385 contracts on Wednesday when prices were higher. That looks like good, new buying and is supportive.
Natural gas open interest grew by 5,856 on Wednesday, when prices were higher. That looks like good, new buying and would be supportive.
Wednesday’s Open Interest Changes:
Crude 1,173,581 up 14,248 Heat 311,552 up 4,350 RBOB 237,394 up 3,385 Nat gas 709,670 up 5,856
CFTC Commitments of Traders for Nymex (for the period ended Tuesday, Dec 8th)
Crude oil prices dropped $1.93/bbl over the latest reporting period, and the best selling came from swap dealers, who sold 16,029 contracts. Producers liquidated 8,889 contracts, while managed money accounts bought 4,013 lots and covered 4,889 contracts. Other reportables took that same approach, buying 6,197 and covering 6,053 contracts. Without the swap selling, prices might have rallied, instead.
In heating oil futures, prices dropped 8.76 cents a gallon, and it was managed money that sold 4,107 contracts and liquidated 3,393. Producers were liquidating 5,216, but they covered 9,944. Swap dealers bought 5,689 and covered 216. Other reportables bought 2,162 and sold 261. It was the managed money selling that pushed quotes lower.
Gasoline prices were down 7.95 cents a gallon during the period under review. Swap dealers and other reportables had net changes of less than 372 contracts on both sides of the market. Producers liquidated 217 longs, but covered 4,933 shorts. Managed money, without the benefit of a weaker dollar, had no reason to buy, and they were liquidating 3,688 longs and sold 236 new shorts. That selling pushed quotes lower.
In natural gas, producers added 4,732 longs and 8,177 shorts. Swap dealers liquidated 11,287 longs and added 1,191 shorts. Managed money added 5,045 longs and covered 14,413 shorts. That buying was huge. Other reportables liquidated 1,519 and sold 4,887 contracts. Prices gained 40.9 cents, and managed money was the best buying and short-covering source.
Natural Gas & Utility Generation
Natural gas prices gained nearly 15 cents on Tuesday and Wednesday, then handed it all – and a couple cents more – back, on Thursday. As a result, prices lost a little less than 15 cents for the week, as a whole. During the earlier part of the week, traders seem to have been consumed by the need to lighten their holdings going into Christmas. Some were booking profits and losses for the year, and they are unlikely to get back into new positions until the new year has gotten under way. In that respect, last week’s activity was more about book-keeping than about prices pursuing any major thrust.
Technically, prices tried to burst through the previous Friday’s high with a move beyond $5.93 – twice – last week. Both times, they failed to break through. As a result, $5.93 is now reinforced resistance overhead. Any decisive breakthrough with a settlement above that level would have to be seen as a major technical success for the bulls and it would confirm upside objectives to levels above $7.00/mmBtu.
Thursday’s failure to break above the critical $5.93 level was spurred, in part, by Thursday’s EIA report. The previous week had shown a much larger draw than expected, and traders seem to have been partially expecting that last week’s report would follow that pattern. There were estimates, but many expected they would again be exceeded.
So, when the EIA showed a smaller drawdown than estimated, it had an almost doubly bearish effect. Traders looked at the comparison against the estimate more than against the draw seen a year ago or the draws on average over the past five years. Last week’s report showed a larger draw than the 144 bcf withdrawn a year earlier as well as the 128 bcf withdrawn on average over the previous five years. In that respect, last week’s report was bullish, on an absolute scale. It succeeded in diminishing the surpluses against both a year ago and the five-year average. Not very long ago, that would have been enough. For most of 2009, traders priced natural gas almost entirely on the surpluses in underground storage. At some point, the reduction of these surpluses will be seen as being bullish. It is why weather forecasts will remain the market’s major fundamental news each Monday.
In cash trading Thursday, Henry Hub prices were at $5.67-$5.88, down $0.03 and up $0.17 on the day (DJN). SoCal prices were at $5.85-$5.96, up $0.21-$0.23 on the day. El Paso Permian prices were up $0.20-$0.22 at $5.65-$5.75. Katy prices were up $0.17-$0.24 to $5.65-$5.81. Waha prices were up $0.18-$0.25 at $5.65-$5.73. Transco 6 was up $0.08-$0.10 to $6.25-$6.60/mmBtu, according to Dow Jones News (DJN). Cash prices were back up on Thursday, after falling on Wednesday. Here, as well, this week’s updated temperature forecasts will set the stage for the market’s next moves.
Palo Verde prices were last quoted at $46.00-$49.25/mwh. Northeastern prices last traded at $43.90-$60.50. Entergy was last at $47.00-$48.00. Ercot was last at $45.75-$46.25/mwh.
Support is at $5.60-$5.63, $5.42-$5.45, $5.31-$5.33, $5.19-$5.21, $5.12-$5.14, $4.96-$4.99, $4.83-$4.85, $4.64-$4.66, $4.40-$4.43, $4.15-$4.17, $4.05-$4.08, $3.73-$3.75, $3.66-$3.68, $3.50-$3.53, $3.44-$3.46, $3.28-$3.32, $2.91-$2.93, $2.80-$2.82, $2.74-$2.75, $2.69-$2.70, $2.62-$2.64, and $240-$2.43. Resistance is at $5.91-$5.93, $5.96-$6.01, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37, $6.65-$6.69, $6.90-$6.94, $7.01-$7.04, $7.28-$7.31, and $7.34-$7.36. Resistance at $5.93 is critical this week.
Jan Natural Gas: Support: $5.60-$5.63, $5.42-$5.45, $5.31-$5.33, $5.19-$5.21, $5.12-$5.14, $4.96-$4.99.
Resistance: $5.91-$5.93, $5.96-$6.01, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37, $6.65-$6.69, $6.90-$6.94.
Natural gas prices sold off slightly on Thursday after advancing mildly earlier in the week. There is strong resistance at $5.93.
Dollars per million Btu
The crude-to-gas ratio got down to 13.02-to-one last week, its lowest ratio since reaching 13.01 on May 17th last spring.
Dollars per million Btu
EIA Weekly Storage Figures
Last week’s EIA report showed a draw of 166 bcf on expectations for a draw of 172 bcf. Stocks are now 359 bcf higher than a year ago, against a surplus of 381 bcf a week ago, a surplus of 472 bcf two weeks ago and a surplus of 470 bcf three weeks ago. Stocks are now 11.81% higher than a year ago. They are 395 bcf and 13.14% above the five-year average.
For this week, the eight-year average (of similar Friday reports) was a draw of 94.25 bcf. The five-year average was a draw of 85.4 bcf. Last year, there was a draw of 143 bcf.
EIA Report
| Region | 12-18-09 | 12-11-09 | Change | Last Year | 5 Yr Avg |
| Cons East | 1869 | 1968 | dn 99 | 1702 | 1707 |
| Cons West | 464 | 478 | dn 14 | 427 | 404 |
| Producing | 1067 | 1120 | dn 53 | 912 | 893 |
| Total US | 3400 | 3566 | dn 166 | 3041 | 3005 |
Bcf, or Billions of cubic feet. Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy
News & Views
| In trading on Nymex, February crude oil prices were up $0.30 at $78.35/barrel at 9:30 PM EST, last night. January heating oil prices were up 1.63 cents to 2.0519/gallon. January RBOB prices were up 1.24 cents to $2.0020. January natural gas prices were up $0.145 to $5.788/mmBtu. Prices were higher last night in response to higher equities and a weaker dollar. In other news last week, Opec agreed to keep production quotas unchanged at 24.845 million bpd. Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi said that prices between $70 and $80 were “perfect.” An explosion took Iraq’s 450,000 bpd export pipeline offline last week, but it returned to service over the weekend and will be back to normal in a few days. The third quarter expanded at a 2.2% rate, revised downwards from an initial estimate of 2.8%. Corporate profits were up 10.8%, which was more than the initial estimate of 10.6%, the most in five years and inventories were liquidated at a faster rate than expected, which could help future growth. The US economy shrank by 3.8% in the 12 months ended June. 
Crude oil prices rallied over the last three days as the bulls pressed quotes higher in the thin-volume environment. Prices look like they broke over a trend line offering resistance drawn from the highs. | 
Heating oil prices rallied over the last three days, and this tells us that the bulls are likely to use anything they can to push quotes higher. They are using selective, relative factors as bullish inputs. DOE History: Distillate stocks have grown in each of the last eight years, by an average of 1.325 mln bbls. The eight-year average is a build of 1.325 mln bbls. Gasoline stocks rose in seven of the last eight years, for a seven-year average build of 1.886 mln bbls and an eight-year average build of 1.600 mln bbls. Crude oil stocks have been lower in seven of the last eight years for a seven-year average draw of 3.529 mln bbls and it has an eight-year average draw of 3.025 mln bbls. Utilization has been higher in seven of the last eight years and has an eight-year average decrease of 0.06%, and it has an eight-year average utilization figure of 90.46%. The four-year, pre-hurricane utilization average was 92.73%. Since Katrina, refineries have run at an average utilization rate of 88.20%. Crude oil imports have been higher in three of the last six years, and the average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been up 173,000 bpd. The average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been 9.776 million bpd. |
| Crude oil faces its retracement zone during a normally quiet week. | |
Other reports last week showed the biggest increase (0.4%) in November in incomes and also showed inflation rising at a slower rate than expected. Confidence among consumers was also reported higher for the first time in three months. These positive figures helped support oil prices last week.
~ Have a Happy, Healthy, Safe & Successful New Year! ~
An Illustrated Look at Energy Market Factors
A Look at the US Dollar Versus the Euro
Dollar-Euro (dollar in euro cents): Six-Month Bar-Chart 
The US dollar fell lightly towards the end of trading last week, after breaking over 70 euro cents. The decline was marginal, and prices are still 350 points above the lows reached three to four weeks ago. The selloff at the end of last week was not especially steep, and the bottom formation remains intact. Oil traders seem to have moved on from the dollar, though.
Source: http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forexqkchart&curcode1=USD&curcode2=EUR
A Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (djia)
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Six-Month Chart
The DJIA was up at the end of last week’s trading and it seems poised to try to break to new highs.
Another failure here to make new highs could bring in selling.
Source: http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=djia&sid=1643&time=6mo&Submit1=Refresh
A Look at Gasoline Supply & Demand
Thirteen-week gasoline demand came in at 9.030 million bpd, up 0.91%. Thirteen-week supply was 9.819 million bpd, down 1.83%. Thirteen-week implied demand was 9.801 million bpd, up 1.16%.
A Look at Distillate Supply & Demand
Thirteen-week distillate demand came in at 3.590 million bpd, down 9.70%. Thirteen-week supply was 4.112 million bpd, down 8.90%. Thirteen-week implied demand was 4.199 million bpd, down 6.75%.
A Look at Refinery Utilization
Utilization is 4.70% lower than a year ago and 9.79% below the eight-year average. It is 11.43% lower than the four-year, pre-Katrina average and 8.15% below the average of the four years since the big hurricanes (Katrina & Rita) in 2005.
Recommendations for Specific Market Segments
Heating Oil Distributors Heating oil prices were higher on Thursday, and they finished the week on a strong note that seems to have followed through in trading last night. Demand figures are looking better in comparison to a year ago, and inventories are dropping. Of course, most of the improvements are on a strictly relative basis. Demand at its best is still below 4 million bpd. Last week, it was up 196,000 bpd, after increasing by 472,000 bpd the week before. It was still just 3.988 million bpd. Inventories may be lower, but they are still higher than they have been at this time of year for a number of decades. At some point, the absolute figures will have to be seen in their own light. It does not look like that time will arrive until some time in the new year. As a result, we would hold capped-price protection. Diesel Users We would hold capped-price protection, adding to it on dips. NYH Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…203.00-203.50 minus 0.250 USG Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…199.25-199.75 minus 4.000 Jet/Kerosene Users & Airlines New York Harbor cash market differentials were 2.75 to 3.25 cents over January heating oil in NY Harbor and 1.75 to 1.25 under the screen in the US Gulf. Diesel & Gasoline Marketers We want to be hedged against downside risk because of poor fundamental factors. The near-term trend has turned back up. Gasoline Blenders & End-Users Prices seem awfully high in relation to demand and inventory levels. Traders are looking at more relative factors right now, though. Prompt NYH Fuel Ethanol…..203.00-205.00 Prompt USG Fuel Ethanol….193.00-196.00 Quotes from 12-18-09 Heating Oil End-Users We would hold onto capped-price product, adding on dips. Speculators We want to buy puts, but would hold off for the rest of this week. We expect the bulls to continue to goose prices higher. Refiners The 7:5+2 crack spread was $6.07 on Thursday. Crude Oil Producers Crude oil prices advanced on some flimsy, relative factors last week. After ignoring dollar strength, traders latched on to a day or two of weaker dollar values. We would wait until 2010 to take positions. | Prompt Jet Fuel Prices New York Harbor 206.25-206.75 US Gulf 201.75-202.25 Midwest (Group Three) 200.50-203.50 Midwest (Chicago) 200.50-201.50 Los Angeles 208.00-209.00 San Francisco 208.00-209.00 Portland, Oregon 208.00-209.00 Cents per gallon Propane Prices Mont Belvieu……….…..non-TET………$1.242080 Cents per gallon  Gasoline prices advanced steeply over the last three trading days. It seems that the bulls are still in control. We expect them to continue using low volume trading to push prices higher.
|
We will be taking Wednesday and Thursday off this week, so Tuesday’s report will be our last until the new year.
We wish all of our readers the very best for the year ahead.
~ Happy 2010! ~