Prices for December 28th, 2009

HEATING OIL    cents per gallon

MONTH

HIGH

LOW

SETTLE

CHANGE

JAN

208.20

203.89

207.35

up 03.79

FEB

210.22

205.80

209.31

up 03.69

MAR

211.12

207.05

210.48

up 03.59

APR

211.48

209.09

210.94

up 03.58

MAY

211.81

209.95

211.54

up 03.52

JUN

212.77

210.21

212.24

up 03.46

JUL

214.09

213.75

213.84

up 03.41

AUG

---.--

---.--

---.--

-- --.--

SEP

---.--

---.--

---.--

-- --.--

OCT

---.--

---.--

---.--

-- --.--

NOV

---.--

---.--

---.--

-- --.--

DEC

225.29

223.30

224.84

up 03.01

Estimated Volume (day before) total all prev day 42,212 

NYMEX CRUDE OIL   dollars per barrel

MONTH

HIGH

LOW

SETTLE

CHANGE

FEB

79.12

77.76

78.77

up 00.72

MAR

79.74

78.43

79.45

up 00.79

APR

80.43

79.22

80.17

up 00.85

MAY

80.98

79.88

80.74

up 00.88

JUN

81.51

80.311

81.26

up 00.89

JUL

82.03

80.67

81.81

up 00.88

 

 

 

 

 

Estimated Volume… 169,527   Opec Basket…$71.78  up $0.01
Prompt #2 Oil NYH 88..-1.00 to -0.50, 74 Lo S…-1.75 to -1.25
US Gulf 88 grade…-4.75 to -4.25, 74 grade Lo S…-5.50 to -5.00 Group
.........-3.00 to -2.50  Lo S.....-3.00 to -2.50
Chicago
......-8.25 to -7.50
                                                     cash quotes by Dow Jones

 

NYMEX RBOB GASOLINE       cents per gallon

MONTH

HIGH

LOW

SETTLE

CHANGE

JAN

202.85

198.64

201.84

up 02.88

FEB

204.77

200.65

203.71

up 02.65

MAR

206.72

202.93

205.71

up 02.57

APR

217.55

215.30

216.70

up 02.77

MAY

218.46

216.20

217.64

up 02.91

JUN

218.76

216.80

218.42

up 03.05

JUL

219.30

219.24

218.47

up 03.10

AUG

---.--

---.--

---.--

-- --.--

Estimated RB Volume day before 35,081

 

NYMEX NATURAL GAS   dollars per mmBtu

MONTH

HIGH

LOW

SETTLE

CHANGE

JAN

6.006

5.752

5.990

up 0.347

FEB

6.011

5.808

5.996

up 0.298

MAR

5.970

5.784

5.965

up 0.279

APR

5.930

5.725

5.916

up 0.251

Estimated Volume…day before   (142,954)
Nymex statistics are based on composite Access & Day Sessions
Prompt Gasoline NYH M5 -1.25 /-0.75 RBOB  +6.75 /+7.25
US Gulf M4:  -4.50 to -4.00  RBOB +6.00 to +6.05
L.A. Conv Reg 203.00-204.00, N-grade Group  183.65-183.90 Chi  184.15-184.90

Market Review for Monday                    

 

T

HE oil market settled yesterday at a five-week high as the bulls continued to push quotes higher.  Petropolitical factors were cited yesterday as reasons for the advance, but it is clear to us that the buying came first and the reasons were tagged on later.  The bulls are simply better organized among money managers, index funds and investment banks.  The sellers are commission house speculators (what we used to call “doctors and dentists”) and producers.  Their selling comes in piecemeal at the wrong times, on scaled-up limit orders or through the purchase of small numbers of puts. 

The buying is typically coming in as larger blocks, and the handlers for these accounts seem to know how to get the most bang for their buck.  Their buying is part of a larger campaign that we are convinced is aimed at pushing prices up to or over $82.00 as soon as possible, in the hope that traders will return next week to a market that cannot be stopped in its advance above that level.   

Fuel for Thought

  The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index was up 0.4% in October, marking the fifth consecutive month higher.  This was seen by market observers as another sign that the economy is improving.  Sales have increased by 35% over the first 11 months of 2009.

   The measure was still down 7.3% from October, 2008, but that was the smallest year-on-year decline since October, 2007.  More significantly, rising home and stock market prices over the last two quarters have helped American households to recover 28% of the wealth – valued at $17.5 trillion – lost since the middle of 2007.  While that does not yet break $5 trillion in recovered wealth, it is still a huge improvement.  Tax credits and low interest rates are seen as positive factors moving forward.

The recent death of Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri on December 20th seems to have ignited a fresh round of demonstrations and arrests in Iran.  Ayatollah Montazeri had been a longtime critic of the hardliners.  The nephew of opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi was killed, possibly even assassinated recently, and the government has refused to release the body, in the belief that the funeral could be a rallying point for opposition members.  Exacerbating the entire picture is the fact that it was Ashura yesterday, the commemoration of the ambush that killed and martyred Mohammed’s grandson Hussein.  His martyrdom is the occasion for processions in the streets by Shi’ites, who mourn his death deeply by whipping themselves bloody in lamentation.  His death was central in the split between Sunni and Shia sects of Islam, and is a link in the chain of imams to Iran’s Twelfth or “Hidden” Imam, who is believed to be in a state of occultation awaiting the moment to return.

Traders were also reacting to a Russian threat to cut off oil supplies to eastern and central Europe over a dispute over transit fees with the Ukraine.  Any cutoff in supplies would affect Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Hungary the most, but it could end up pulling oil from other countries.

Technicals

          

The oil complex was higher again yesterday, and crude oil prices broke above resistance at a trendline drawn from the market’s highs.  Heating oil prices settled on a similar line, and gasoline prices settled short of that same line.  We have not had clear breakouts above highs at $82.00, 212.89 and 211.24, but the bulls want to get near those levels.

Dollars per barrel

Above:  Crude oil prices are on the verge of breaking above major resistance up to $82.00/bbl.

February crude oil now has buy-stops over $79.12, $79.95, $80.33-$80.52, $81.06, $81.58, $82.00, $84.83, and $85.13.  Sell-stops are under $77.75, $76.00, $74.25, $72.70, $71.99, $71.20, $70.55, $69.30, $68.55, $68.00, $65.80-$66.20, and $64.95.  January heating oil has buy-stops over 208.20, 208.80, 209.70, 210.00, 211.17, 212.12, 216.07, 225.80, 227.05, 229.08, 238.95, 249.62, and 251.50. Sell stops are under 203.85, 199.80, 195.00, 191.00, 190.00, 189.55, 188.70, 187.00, 186.50, 182.63, 177.00, 176.68, 173.75, 171.10, 170.35, 168.60, 167.65, and 166.90.  January RBOB has buy-stops over 202.85, 204.10, 206.15, 207.62, 209.53, 211.24, 214.00, 222.70, and 228.86.  Sell-stops are under 198.60, 194.55, 189.65, 185.00-185.15, 184.60, 182.40, 181.20, 179.20, 177.30, 175.14, 171.40, 170.25, and 168.85. 

 

Football: The bulls picked up seven yards on yesterday’s first down, making it second and three to go, today. 

 

Technical Support & Resistance

Feb crude oil                         Support:             $77.75-$77.85, $76.00-$76.20, $74.25-$74.40, $72.70-$72.85, $71.95-$72.10.

                                           Resistance:        $79.00-$79.12, $79.80-$79.95, $80.30-$80.55, $80.95-$81.10, $81.50-$81.60.

Jan heating oil       Support:             203.85-203.95, 199.80-200.00, 195.00-195.20, 193.45-193.60, 192.70-192.85.

                             Resistance:        208.00-208.20, 208.65-208.80, 209.70-210.00, 210.95-211.17, 212.00-212.12.

Jan Rbob                      Support:             198.60-198.70, 194.55-194.70, 189.65-189.80, 185.65-185.75, 184.60-184.75.

                                           Resistance:        202.75-202.85, 203.90-204.10, 206.00-206.15, 207.50-207.62, 209.40-209.53.

Oil Inventory Reports

     

This week’s DOE report will be the major focus of the week, again, and traders are likely to revolve their trading around its release.  Recent reports have shown a steady decline in the year-on-year surpluses, but part of that comes from last year’s figures.  As an example, crude oil stocks a year ago were 30 million barrels above year earlier levels; last week they were 3.6 million barrels higher.  The end result is that last week’s crude oil figure was still 33.6 million barrels higher than it was two years ago.  Right now, the numbers are all about low refining rates and the low imports needed to prevent stocks from building.

Last Week’s Inventory Comparison:  Distillate stocks are now 19.9 million bbls, or 14.07%, higher than a year ago.  Heating oil inventories are 4.7 mln bbls, or 11.30%, higher than they were a year ago.  Gasoline stocks are 7.2 mln bbls (up 3.44%) higher against a year ago.  Crude oil stocks are now 3.6 million bbls, or 1.11%, higher than a year ago.  Residual stocks are 0.2 mln bbls (0.54%) lower than a year ago, jet fuel stocks are 3.1 mln bbls, (8.18%) higher than a year ago.  Utilization is 4.70% lower than a year ago and 9.79% below the eight-year average.  It is 11.43% lower than the four-year, pre-Katrina average and 8.15% below the average of the four years since the big hurricanes (Katrina & Rita) in 2005.

Last Week’s Demand:  Four-week, total refined products demand came in at 18.905 million bpd, up 0.139 mln bbls on the week, and down 0.202 mln bpd and 1.06% against a year ago.  Ten weeks ago, it was 0.900 mln bpd and 5.03% higher than a year ago.  Four-week gasoline demand is at 8.991 mln bpd, up 0.82%, compared to up 6.23% 10 weeks ago.  Four-week distillate demand is now at 3.670 mln bpd, down 3.88%, compared to down 14.80% six weeks ago.  Four-week jet demand is now at 1.464 mln bpd, up 3.61%, compared to up 0.14% two weeks ago and 1.61% three weeks ago.  Four-week residual fuel demand is at 0.497 mln bpd, down 24.92%, compared to down 1.19% five weeks ago.   Propane use is up 17.35%, at 1.495 mln bpd, compared to being up 17.63% five weeks ago.  Demand is getting stronger.

Last Week’s API Report:  Last week’s API report showed a draw of 3.707 mln bbls in crude oil stocks, a draw of 0.745 mln bbls in distillate stocks and a draw of 1.096 mln bbls in gasoline inventories.  Utilization was down 0.2% to 78.4%.  Implied demand came in at 9.515 mln bpd in gasoline and at 4.237 mln bpd in distillate.  Crude oil imports were up 0.127 mln bpd to 8.980 mln bpd, which was still low enough to help draw down inventories.  Imports and runs are way down historically.

 

                                                                    DOE Weekly Inventory Statistics

Category

Final DOE Estimate
This Week’s Estimate

History
Last Year’s Report

Most Recent Changes
Last Week’s DOE Report

Versus A Year Ago
Millions of Barrels

Distillate

dn 2.00 to 2.50 mln bbls

up 1.814

dn 3.027 mln bbls

up 19.900

Gasoline

up 1.25 to 1.75

up 3.336

dn 0.883

up   7.200

Crude oil

dn 2.00 to 3.00

dn 3.101

dn 4.841

up   3.600

Utilization

up 0.0% to 0.5%

up 0.6% at 84.7%

up 0.05% at 80.00%

 

Crude Imports

up 0.000 to 0.500 mmbd

dn 0.555 to 9.118

dn 0.065 to 7.707 mln bpd

 

 

DOE Distillate Demand

3.988 mln bpd

up 196,000

Gasoline Demand

9.045 mln bpd

up 082,000

DOE Distillate Production

3.806 mln bpd

up 008,000

Gasoline Production

8.963 mln bpd

dn 134,000

DOE Distillate Imports

0.335 mln bpd

up 106,000

Gasoline Imports

0.848 mln bpd

dn 119,000

Source: US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration  

 

Open Interest Analysis

    

Crude oil open interest grew by 5,750 contracts on Thursday, when prices were higher.  That looks like heavy new buying, which would be supportive. 

      Heating oil open interest fell by 3,374 contracts on Thursday, when prices were higher.  That looks like short-covering, which is bearish.

      RBOB open interest fell by 878 contracts on Thursday when prices were higher.  That looks like light short-covering, but is bearish.

      Natural gas open interest fell by 1,795 on Thursday, when prices were lower.  That looks like long liquidation, which would be supportive. 

 

Thursday’s Open Interest Changes: 

Crude 1,179,331  up 5,750       Heat 308,178   dn 3,374       RBOB 236,516  dn 878       Nat gas 707,875  dn 1,795          

 

CFTC Commitments of Traders for Nymex  (for the period ended Tuesday, Dec 8th)   

   Crude oil prices dropped $1.93/bbl over the latest reporting period, and the best selling came from swap dealers, who sold 16,029 contracts.  Producers liquidated 8,889 contracts, while managed money accounts bought 4,013 lots and covered 4,889 contracts.  Other reportables took that same approach, buying 6,197 and covering 6,053 contracts.  Without the swap selling, prices might have rallied, instead.

    In heating oil futures, prices dropped 8.76 cents a gallon, and it was managed money that sold 4,107 contracts and liquidated 3,393.  Producers were liquidating 5,216, but they covered 9,944.  Swap dealers bought 5,689 and covered 216.  Other reportables bought 2,162 and sold 261.  It was the managed money selling that pushed quotes lower. 

    Gasoline prices were down 7.95 cents a gallon during the period under review.  Swap dealers and other reportables had net changes of less than 372 contracts on both sides of the market.  Producers liquidated 217 longs, but covered 4,933 shorts.  Managed money, without the benefit of a weaker dollar, had no reason to buy, and they were liquidating 3,688 longs and sold 236 new shorts.  That selling pushed quotes lower.

    In natural gas, producers added 4,732 longs and 8,177 shorts.  Swap dealers liquidated 11,287 longs and added 1,191 shorts.  Managed money added 5,045 longs and covered 14,413 shorts.  That buying was huge.  Other reportables liquidated 1,519 and sold 4,887 contracts.  Prices gained 40.9 cents, and managed money was the best buying and short-covering source.

 

 

Natural Gas & Utility Generation

Nymex

Natural gas prices burst higher yesterday, gaining nearly 35 cents per million Btu.  In the process, prices broke and finished above resistance at $5.93.  By doing that, prices generated another swing objective higher, this one to $7.028, which is very near the swing objective to $7.066 generated by the breakout over $5.32.  In any event, we now have two swing objectives pointing towards objectives just above $7.00/mmBtu.  Having two different objectives to roughly the same area is technical confirmation of the both breakouts. 

The major factor behind yesterday’s advance was a fresh forecast for colder temperatures.  After relatively mild readings over the weekend, the mercury plunged yesterday in the Northeast, greeting futures traders with cold, Artic air.  This underlined the predictions for colder weather to come and that helped push quotes to more than $6.00/mmBtu, their highest levels in 11 months.  Colder weather would be likely to eat into storage.

The National Weather Service is predicting colder-than-normal readings into the first week of January.  And it turned colder yesterday.  As far as the market is concerned, the next two weeks will be colder than usual, and that should help to eat away at the natural gas in storage.   

Conclusions

The potentially biggest determinant of prices later this week will be whether traders choose to compare this next EIA storage draw with previous years or with expectations.  We have now had one report exceed expectations followed by a second report which failed to meet expectations.  That makes it difficult to gauge this week’s response.  It could be interpreted either way fairly easily.  Other inputs will be the actual range of expectations, weather forecasts and any manifested trends at the time the report is released.  One factor, though, is that this week’s report will be less likely to catch traders by surprise – either way.  And, as we write this, the trend higher looks to be fairly solidly in place.  We now have overlapping objectives to essentially the same area, and one reinforces the other.  As a result, the bulls have more than one way to claim this coming report as being supportive (either against expectations or against previous years).

Cash

In cash trading yesterday, Henry Hub prices were at $5.75-$6.00, up $0.08-$0.12 on the day (DJN).  SoCal prices were at $6.04-$6.10, up $0.14-$0.19 on the day.  El Paso Permian prices were up $0.20-$0.21 at $5.86-$5.95.  Katy prices were up $0.15-$0.15 to $5.80-$5.96.  Waha prices were up $0.18-$0.21 at $5.83-$5.94.  Transco 6 was up $3.50-$4.40 to $9.75-$11.00/mmBtu, according to Dow Jones News (DJN).  Cash prices into the Northeast were especially strong yesterday as temperatures plunged overnight into Monday.  Cold readings seem likely to remain with us through January. 

Electricity

Palo Verde prices were last quoted at $50.50-$53.00/mwh.  Northeastern prices last traded at $51.50-$89.00.  Entergy was last at $43.00-$44.00.  Ercot was last at $49.75-$51.00/mwh. 

Support is at $5.75-$5.77, $5.60-$5.63, $5.42-$5.45, $5.31-$5.33, $5.19-$5.21, $5.12-$5.14, $4.96-$4.99, $4.83-$4.85, $4.64-$4.66, $4.40-$4.43, $4.15-$4.17, $4.05-$4.08, $3.73-$3.75, $3.66-$3.68, $3.50-$3.53, $3.44-$3.46, $3.28-$3.32, $2.91-$2.93, $2.80-$2.82, $2.74-$2.75, $2.69-$2.70, $2.62-$2.64, and $240-$2.43.  Resistance is at $5.99-$6.01, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37, $6.65-$6.69, $6.90-$6.94, $7.01-$7.04, $7.28-$7.31, and $7.34-$7.36.  Resistance at $5.93 was broken yesterday.

 

Jan Natural Gas:                                Support:     $5.75-$5.77, $5.60-$5.63, $5.42-$5.45, $5.31-$5.33, $5.19-$5.21, $5.12-$5.14.

                                                    Resistance:     $5.96-$6.01, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37, $6.65-$6.69, $6.90-$6.94, $5.99-$6.01.

 

Charts

Natural gas prices broke decisively above resistance at $5.93 yesterday, reinforcing objectives higher.

Dollars per million Btu

Natural gas prices are entering overbought territory, although they have been more overbought.

 

Dollars per million Btu

 

EIA Weekly Storage Figures

Last week’s EIA report showed a draw of 166 bcf on expectations for a draw of 172 bcf.  Stocks are now 359 bcf higher than a year ago, against a surplus of 381 bcf a week ago, a surplus of 472 bcf two weeks ago and a surplus of 470 bcf three weeks ago.  Stocks are now 11.81% higher than a year ago.  They are 395 bcf and 13.14% above the five-year average.

For this week, the eight-year average (of similar Friday reports) was a draw of 94.25 bcf.  The five-year average was a draw of 85.4 bcf.  Last year, there was a draw of 143 bcf. 

 

EIA Report

Region

12-18-09

12-11-09

Change

Last Year

5 Yr Avg

Cons East

1869

1968

dn 99

1702

1707

Cons West

464

478

dn 14

427

404

Producing

1067

1120

dn 53

912

893

Total US

3400

3566

dn 166

3041

3005

Bcf, or Billions of cubic feet.  Source:  Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy

 

News & Views

Globex

In trading on Nymex, February crude oil prices were down $0.04 at $78.73/barrel at 8:30 AM EST, this morning.  January heating oil prices were up 0.801.63 cents to 2.0815/gallon.  January RBOB prices were up 0.11 cents to $2.0195.  January natural gas prices were up $0.015 to $6.005/mmBtu.  The housing numbers came in higher and the bulls jumped on them as a reason to push crude oil prices up right around 9 AM.  The bulls continue to be in control of prices here as we end the year.

 

DOE Expectations

The table below lists the first survey results for Dow Jones, Bloomberg and Reuters.  The DOE report will be released at 10:30 AM EDT on Wednesday morning this week.

 

Category    Dow Jones    Bloomberg     Reuters

Crude           dn 1.100        dn 2.200          dn 1.500 mln bbls

Distillate      dn 1.800        dn 2.250          dn 1.900

Gasoline      up 0.500        up 1.000          up 1.000

Utilization   up 0.1%         up 0.2%           up 0.2%

 

Crude oil prices were higher yesterday, and they are clearly above the line drawn from past highs.  All that remains now is resistance up to $82.00.  A break over that would be technically bullish.

Heating oil prices rallied and settled right on the trendline drawn above.  This market has finished on the exact lines of support or resistance a number of times recently.  We expect prices to move up. 

 

DOE History:  Distillate stocks have grown in each of the last eight years, by an average of 1.325 mln bbls.  The eight-year average is a build of 1.325 mln bbls.  Gasoline stocks rose in seven of the last eight years, for a seven-year average build of 1.886 mln bbls and an eight-year average build of 1.600 mln bbls.   Crude oil stocks have been lower in seven of the last eight years for a seven-year average draw of 3.529 mln bbls and it has an eight-year average draw of 3.025 mln bbls.  Utilization has been higher in seven of the last eight years and has an eight-year average decrease of 0.06%, and it has an eight-year average utilization figure of 90.46%.  The four-year, pre-hurricane utilization average was 92.73%.  Since Katrina, refineries have run at an average utilization rate of 88.20%.  Crude oil imports have been higher in three of the last six years, and the average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been up 173,000 bpd.  The average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been 9.776 million bpd.       

Crude oil prices have broken trendline resistance – leaving $82.

 

A key measure of housing values increased for a fifth straight month today, and that was seen as a fresh sign of economic resurgence.  Oil traders will continue to buy on a weak dollar, political unrest in oil producing countries and cold weather.

Our next report will be out on Monday.  We wish all of readers the very, very best for the year ahead.

 

Have a Happy, Healthy, Safe & Successful New Year!  ~

An Illustrated Look at Energy Market Factors

A Look at the US Dollar Versus the Euro

 

Dollar-Euro (dollar in euro cents):  Six-Month Bar-Chart US Dollar vs Euro Intraday forex chart The US dollar is down from its highs, but oil traders got no help on the downside from a higher dollar, and now the oil bulls are using every minor decline in the currency as a reason to buy oil futures.  Long story short: This is only being used by the bulls and is not really being used at all by the bears – even though it is well above its lows.

 

Source:  http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forexqkchart&curcode1=USD&curcode2=EUR

 

A Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (djia)

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Six-Month Chart

The DJIA was up 24.41 points, and it seems poised to make an attempt to get solidly into new high territory. 

This strength is being used as another reason to buy oil futures.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source:  http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=djia&sid=1643&time=6mo&Submit1=Refresh

 

A Look at Inventories

 

 

Distillate inventories are clearly down from their highs, but they are still high by historical standards.

 

Low imports are helping eat into stocks.

A Look at Imports

 

 

 

Thirteen-week crude oil imports remain at the lowest levels they have been at in years.

 

Recommendations for Specific Market Segments

Heating Oil Distributors

      Heating oil prices finished yesterday right on top of the trendline drawn through the highs.  Major resistance remains at 212.89, but it seems to us that the bulls are trying to use every possibly bullish figure to move us nearer that figure.

       Demand has improved.  Inventories are lower than they were.  Still, the improvements have come from cold weather and from a minor shift in the numbers seen a year ago, with which existing numbers are now being compared.  A quick look at the inventory figures on page 8 tells us that stocks are still plentiful.

       We have seen major tops or bottoms near major holidays for 25 years and more.  We seem to be seeing a more concerted effort, though, now.  As a result, we would hold onto capped price protection and would add to it on any fair dips.  We expect the bulls to keep pushing prices higher, using every input for its full potential.

 

Diesel Users

We would hold capped-price protection, adding to it on dips.

  NYH Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…203.00-203.50 minus 0.250

USG Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…199.25-199.75 minus 4.000

Jet/Kerosene Users & Airlines

New York Harbor cash market differentials were 2.75 to 3.25 cents over January heating oil in NY Harbor and 1.75 to 1.25 under the screen in the US Gulf.

 Cash quotes have been spotty this week.

Diesel & Gasoline Marketers

We want to be hedged against downside risk because of poor fundamental factors.   The near-term trend has turned back up.

Gasoline Blenders & End-Users

It looks to us that there is a definite effort to push prices higher right now, in an attempt to start the new year on a bullish note.

Prompt NYH Fuel Ethanol…..203.00-205.00

Prompt USG Fuel Ethanol….193.00-196.00

Quotes from 12-18-09

Heating Oil End-Users

We would hold onto capped-price product, adding on dips.

Speculators

We want to buy puts, but would hold off for the rest of this week.  We expect the bulls to continue to push prices higher.   

Refiners

The 7:5+2 crack spread was $6.66 yesterday.

 

Crude Oil Producers

Crude oil prices continued higher yesterday, and every little news item is now being given a bullish coat of paint.  We expect this to continue through the end of trading in 2009.

Prompt Jet Fuel Prices

New York Harbor  209.75-210.00n

US Gulf  205.00-205.50n

Midwest (Group Three) 203.75-206.75n

Midwest (Chicago)  203.75-204.75n

Los Angeles  212.00-213.00

San Francisco  212.00-213.00

Portland, Oregon  212.00-213.00

Cents per gallon

 

Propane Prices

Mont Belvieu……….…..non-TET………$1.242080

 

Cents per gallon

  Gasoline prices advanced again yesterday and they are getting nearer the resistance line drawn overhead.  We expect the bulls to continue pushing quotes higher this week, while the volume remains light.

 

 

We will be taking Wednesday and Thursday off this week, so this report will be our last until the new year.

We wish all of our readers the very best for the year ahead.

 

~ Happy 2010! ~