Prices for January 5th, 2009
| HEATING OIL cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | FEB | 220.60 | 216.78 | 219.41 | up 00.36 | | MAR | 220.91 | 217.73 | 220.07 | up 00.81 | | APR | 220.79 | 217.64 | 219.96 | up 00.84 | | MAY | 220.19 | 218.10 | 220.09 | up 00.76 | | JUN | 221.24 | 220.23 | 220.50 | up 00.72 | | JUL | 221.28 | 222.30 | 221.75 | up 00.69 | | AUG | 223.40 | 222.30 | 223.44 | up 00.75 | | SEP | 225.51 | 224.76 | 225.68 | up 00.77 | | OCT | ---.-- | ---.-- | ---.-- | -- --.-- | | NOV | 230.89 | 228.96 | 230.43 | up 00.88 | | DEC | 233.26 | 230.67 | 232.72 | up 00.94 | | JAN | ---.-- | ---.-- | ---.-- | -- --.-- | | Estimated Volume (day before) total all prev day 106,471 | | NYMEX CRUDE OIL dollars per barrel | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | FEB | 82.00 | 80.95 | 81.77 | up 00.26 | | MAR | 82.64 | 81.62 | 82.41 | up 00.29 | | APR | 83.20 | 82.24 | 82.99 | up 00.34 | | MAY | 83.71 | 82.86 | 83.52 | up 00.40 | | JUN | 84.15 | 83.22 | 84.01 | up 00.45 | | JUL | 84.42 | 83.79 | 84.47 | up 00.45 | | | | | | | | | Estimated Volume… 492,476 Opec Basket…$78.18 up $1.02
Prompt #2 Oil NYH 88..-0.75 to +0.00, 74 Lo S…-0.25 to +0.25
US Gulf 88 grade…-4.50 to -4.25, 74 grade Lo S…-4.00 to -3.50 Group .........-5.50 to -5.00 Lo S.....-5.50 to -5.00
Chicago ......-12.00 to -11.00 cash quotes by Dow Jones | | | |
| NYMEX RBOB GASOLINE cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | FEB | 213.15 | 210.04 | 212.50 | up 02.06 | | MAR | 214.19 | 211.67 | 213.66 | up 01.65 | | APR | 224.39 | 222.21 | 223.98 | up 01.27 | | MAY | 224.99 | 223.07 | 224.83 | up 01.25 | | JUN | 225.77 | 223.57 | 225.41 | up 01.23 | | JUL | 225.45 | 224.00 | 225.43 | up 01.15 | | AUG | 224.72 | 224.25 | 225.08 | up 01.10 | | SEP | 223.97 | 223.00 | 224.31 | up 01.08 | | Estimated RB Volume day before 78,884 | | NYMEX NATURAL GAS dollars per mmBtu | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | FEB | 5.858 | 5.615 | 5.637 | dn 0.247 | | MAR | 5.821 | 5.574 | 5.593 | dn 0.248 | | APR | 5.781 | 5.547 | 5.563 | dn 0.239 | | MAY | 5.805 | 5.593 | 5.608 | dn 0.229 | | | Estimated Volume…day before (153,570)
Nymex statistics are based on composite Access & Day Sessions
Prompt Gasoline NYH M5 -0.75 /-0.50 RBOB +7.00 /+7.50
US Gulf M4: -3.50 to -3.25 RBOB +2.00 to +2.75
L.A. Conv Reg 215.50-216.50, N-grade Group 207.25-207.75 Chi 204.50-205.50 | |
Market Review for Tuesday
HE oil complex had another strong day yesterday, with crude oil futures touching a high of $82.00, but not succeeding in breaking or finishing above that figure. We also discovered yesterday that Monday’s steep gains in crude oil prices had come on the back of an increase in open interest of nearly 49,000 contracts. That represents a huge amount of new buying (and selling, of course), and with prices moving higher, it suggests aggressive buying by speculative accounts. Those accounts were almost certainly heavily made up of investors, which have been the bane of sensible trading. We expect that a large proportion of the buying came from the “massive passive” group of big-money investors which takes its cues from a handful of investment banks. After getting long for their own accounts in the final two weeks of 2009, the banks persuaded these investors to adopt long commodities positions here at the start of the new year. Cold weather was certainly an added inducement to buyers, but we do not see the handiwork of investment bankers in response to temperatures.
| Fuel for Thought After seven years of consecutive declines, Bloomberg reports that Mexican oil production may be poised for a recovery. Although there is not much reason to expect gains this new year, Pemex said yesterday that it plans to increase output in 2011 by 50,000 bpd, to 2.55 million bpd. It could follow that with an increase of another 140,000 bpd in 2012, the report says. Mexico’s giant Cantarell field reached its peak output in 2003, when it accounted for more than 65% of the nation’s output in December that year. This past November, production from the field had fallen by 35% from the year earlier. The lost output is estimated to have cost Mexico $23.4 billion in lost sales in 2009. As a result of the lost revenues, the Mexican government had to raise taxes to close its budget gap. |
The bears were licking their wounds yesterday, and we were surprised to see selling in front of $82.00 earlier in the session. We expect that it was profit-taking by the traders who got long as the years came to a close. Producers and commercial sellers reportedly stood to the side ahead of this week’s supply-demand statistics. They are still widely expected to be bullish, although last night’s API figures were surprisingly bearish.
The API showed a shockingly large increase in gasoline stocks – of 5.575 million barrels. This gave us an implied demand figure of 8.551 million bpd, which is uncharacteristically light for the holidays. If it is verified by the DOE, it will suggest that retailers had already filled secondary storage and were buying during the week under review for the first part of January, during which demand is traditionally weak. Distillate stocks were also higher in the latest report, suggesting relatively full secondary storage, as well. The implied demand figure of 4.036 million bpd is on the light side and would be seen as weak in previous years. The jump in crude oil imports and the increase in refinery utilization rates were also surprising, and they will be seen as being bearish if today’s DOE numbers reflect the same basic figures.
Technicals
The oil complex was higher yesterday, but the momentum higher seen on Monday was missing. Prices have risen almost vertically over the last two weeks, and prices are approaching overbought levels, although they are not there sufficiently yet for the bulls to worry. Today’s DOE report is their more immediate concern.
Dollars per barrel
Above: The crack spread seems to be firming. Today’s report could set the stage for the next week.
February crude oil now has buy-stops over $82.00, $84.83, $85.13, $89.82, $90.99, $93.02, $96.03, $100.37, $102.85, $106.91, $108.11, $108.70, $109.60, and $110.45-$110.60. Sell-stops are under $79.60, $79.00, $77.75, $76.00, $74.25, $72.70, $71.99, $71.20, $70.55, $69.30, $68.55, $68.00, $65.80-$66.20, and $64.95. February heating oil has buy-stops over 220.60, 225.80, 227.05, 229.08, 238.95, 249.62, 251.50, 256.48, 265.89, 273.20, 288.50, 295.00, 299.71, and 303.00. Sell stops are under 216.75, 213.00, 210.00, 203.85, 199.80, 195.00, 191.00, 190.00, 189.55, 188.70, 187.00, 186.50, 182.63, 177.00, 176.68, 173.75, 171.10, 170.35, 168.60, 167.65, and 166.90. February RBOB has buy-stops over 213.15, 214.00, 222.70, 228.86, 240.10, 250.40, 252.00, 265.10, 267.85, 270.85, 272.00, and 280.25. Sell-stops are under 210.00, 202.65, 198.60, 194.55, 189.65, 185.00-185.15, 184.60, 182.40, 181.20, 179.20, 177.30, 175.14, 171.40, 170.25, and 168.85.
Football: The bulls gained three yards yesterday, making it second and seven to go, today.
Technical Support & Resistance
Feb crude oil Support: $79.60-$79.75, $79.00-$79.20, $77.75-$77.85, $76.00-$76.20, $74.25-$74.40.
Resistance: $81.70-$82.00, $84.70-$84.85, $85.05-$85.15, $89.70-$89.85, $90.90-$91.00.
Feb heating oil Support: 216.75-216.90, 213.00-213.15, 211.35-211.50, 209.30-209.45, 205.80-206.00.
Resistance: 220.45-220.60, 225.60-225.80, 226.95-227.05, 228.95-229.10, 238.85-238.95.
Feb Rbob Support: 209.90-210.00, 206.70-206.80, 204.55-204.65, 202.65-202.75, 198.60-198.70.
Resistance: 213.00-213.15, 213.80-214.00, 222.60-222.70, 228.75-228.86, 239.80-240.00.
Oil Inventory Reports
This week’s DOE report will give us our first real flavor of supply and demand in the new year, and the trend has been for stocks to decline and demand to grow. As we noted in the opening comments, the numbers do not correspond with what we wrote down a year ago, and that discrepancy makes the comparisons unnecessarily bullish. We are soon going to enter four months of refinery maintenance, and the biggest question, which we will not be able to answer for four weeks or more, is if refineries will rotate units and keep utilization at already low levels or if they will cut to new, even lower levels.
Last Week’s Inventory Comparison: Distillate stocks are now 15.6 million bbls, or 10.86%, higher than a year ago. Heating oil inventories are 2.9 mln bbls, or 6.99%, higher than they were a year ago. Gasoline stocks are 4.7 mln bbls (up 2.22%) higher against a year ago. Crude oil stocks are now 1.1 million bbls, or 0.34%, higher than a year ago. Residual stocks are 0.6 mln bbls (1.64%) lower than a year ago, jet fuel stocks are 4.1 mln bbls, (10.82%) higher than a year ago. Utilization is 2.23% lower than a year ago and 10.19% below the eight-year average. It is 12.46% lower than the four-year, pre-Katrina average and 7.93% below the average of the four years since the big hurricanes (Katrina & Rita) in 2005.
Last Week’s Demand: Four-week, total refined products demand came in at 19.090 million bpd, up 0.185 mln bbls on the week, and down 0.039 mln bpd and 0.20% against a year ago. Eleven weeks ago, it was 0.900 mln bpd and 5.03% higher than a year ago. Four-week gasoline demand is at 9.024 mln bpd, up 1.12%, compared to up 6.23% 11 weeks ago. Four-week distillate demand is now at 3.689 mln bpd, down 2.82%, compared to down 14.80% seven weeks ago. Four-week jet demand is now at 1.454 mln bpd, up 3.71%, compared to up 0.14% three weeks ago and 1.61% four weeks ago. Four-week residual fuel demand is at 0.498 mln bpd, down 30.83%, compared to down 1.19% six weeks ago. Propane use is up 14.80%, at 1.513 mln bpd, compared to being up 17.63% five weeks ago.
This Week’s API Report: This week’s API report showed a draw of 2.267 mln bbls in crude oil stocks, a build of 0.962 mln bbls in distillate stocks and a build of 5.575 mln bbls in gasoline inventories. Utilization was up 1.3% to 79.5%. Implied demand came in at 8.551 mln bpd in gasoline and at 4.036 mln bpd in distillate. Crude oil imports were up 1.404 mln bpd to 8.734 mln bpd. Implied demand, the increases in crude imports and utilization and the gasoline build were all bearish.
DOE Weekly Inventory Statistics
| Category | Final DOE Estimate
This Week’s Estimate | History
Last Year’s Report | Most Recent Changes
Last Week’s DOE Report | Versus A Year Ago
Millions of Barrels |
| Distillate | dn 2.35 to 2.85 mln bbls | up 1.790 | dn 2.055 mln bbls | up 15.600 |
| Gasoline | dn 0.25 to 0.75 | up 3.334 | dn 0.366 | up 4.700 |
| Crude oil | up 2.00 to 3.00 | up 6.682 | dn 1.538 | up 1.100 |
| Utilization | up 0.5% to 1.0% | up 2.1% at 84.6% | up 0.23% at 80.27% | |
| Crude Imports | up 0.500 to 1.000 mmbd | up 1.236 to 10.485 | up 0.320 to 8.027 mln bpd | |
| DOE Distillate Demand | 3.656 mln bpd | dn 332,000 | Gasoline Demand | 9.074 mln bpd | up 029,000 |
| DOE Distillate Production | 3.710 mln bpd | dn 096,000 | Gasoline Production | 9.028 mln bpd | up 065,000 |
| DOE Distillate Imports | 0.237 mln bpd | dn 098,000 | Gasoline Imports | 0.753 mln bpd | dn 095,000 |
Source: US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration
Open Interest Analysis
Crude oil open interest grew by an astonishing 48,794 contracts on Monday, when prices were higher. That looks like extremely heavy, new buying and is certain to include a good deal of fresh index fund buying for the new year.
Heating oil open interest rose by 5,943 contracts on Monday, when prices were higher. That looks like new buying and would be bullish.
RBOB open interest rose by 6,286 contracts on Monday when prices were higher. That looks like new buying and would be bullish.
Natural gas open interest rose by 14,979 on Monday, when prices were higher. That looks like new buying and is supportive.
Monday’s Open Interest Changes:
Crude 1,241,859 up 48,794 Heat 309,506 up 5,943 RBOB 240,940 up 6,286 Nat gas 722,533 up 14,979
CFTC Commitments of Traders for Nymex (for the period ended Tuesday, Dec 22nd)
Crude oil prices gained $3.71/bbl over the latest reporting period, and the best buying came from producer short-covering. That group covered 8,642 contracts. It also liquidated 6,318 contracts on the long side. Managed money accounts added 2,223 new longs. Swap dealers bought the most on aggregate, covering 4,204 contracts and buying 724 new longs. Other reportable accounts liquidated 2,286 longs and sold 1,275 new shorts.
In heating oil futures, prices gained 4.53 cents a gallon, and the best buying came from the speculative community. Large speculators of various groupings bought 3,385 new longs and covered 4.113 shorts. Commercial accounts, including producers, bought 2,942 new longs, but sold 13,592 new shorts. Non-reportable accounts bought 1,609 and covered 1,543.
Gasoline prices were up 4.37 cents a gallon during the period under review. Swap dealers bought 1,249 new longs and covered 106 shorts. Producers added 4,006 new longs but also added 4,768 new shorts. Managed money accounts liquidated 1,556 longs and covered 415 shorts. Other reportable positions liquidated 108 longs and covered 297 shorts. Swap dealers seem to have been the most active buyers.
In natural gas, prices gained 19.3 cents during the period under review. Small trader short-covering was the motive force, with 14,198 contracts covered against 9,546 contracts liquidated. Commercial accounts covered 21,268 contracts and liquidated 18,767. Large speculators were getting short again, selling 12,205 and buying just 5,052 contracts.
Natural Gas & Utility Generation
Natural gas prices were down almost a quarter of a dollar yesterday in a strange bout of profit-taking by the longs. Traders were talking about new forecasts calling for an interlude of more moderate temperature readings in the middle of January. We saw a few forecasts suggesting that will be the case, but we have our doubts about whether we will actually see more moderate readings once we get there. One of the enduring features of trends in the weather is the sudden collapse of countertrend systems as we actually approach the period when these are supposed to arrive.
We would be surprised to see prices continue to move much lower from here, and our reasoning again involves temperatures. Specifically, it involves the readings seen last weekend and with us now. We mentioned yesterday that this week’s EIA report will effectively be a “free” report. By that, we mean it will be like a football play after a flag has been thrown for an offside call on the defense. It is effectively a “free” play. If anything goes wrong for the offense, the penalty can be accepted. If big gains are registered, the penalty can be refused.
Because of the bitterly cold temperatures seen over the last few days – and likely to be with us for the next few days – next week’s EIA figures will be almost certain to be bullish. If we get a bearish or disappointing EIA underground storage report this week, traders can look ahead to what is likely to be a more bullish result next week. That, in effect, gives the bulls a free pass on a poor report tomorrow. As a result, we would expect traders to be buying at some point today. If we can see this, there are people out there who also see the same thing.
We remain bullish and see yesterday’s decline as an opportunity to buy into this market. We feel that prices dropped more because of overbought pressures and because of profit-taking than because of any sudden structural defect in the bullish thinking. With most of the country in the icy grip of the coldest winter in years, this week’s EIA report is only the warm-up act for the bigger figures that seem certain (right now) to follow a week from now.
In cash trading yesterday, Henry Hub prices were at $6.00-$6.30, up $0.05-$0.15 on the day (DJN). SoCal prices were at $6.00-$6.20, up $0.00-$0.10 on the day. El Paso Permian prices were up $0.19-$0.22 at $5.99-$6.15. Katy prices were up $0.06-$0.13 to $5.99-$6.18. Waha prices were up $0.16-$0.17 at $6.12-$6.21. Transco 6 was down $1.15-$2.10 to $11.35-$12.90/mmBtu, according to Dow Jones News (DJN). Cash prices into the Northeast were off just slightly as traders looked ahead to more moderate readings on the horizon. Nonetheless, temperatures are expected to remain extremely cold into next week.
Palo Verde prices were last quoted at $49.00-$50.25/mwh. Northeastern prices last traded at $54.00-$100.50. Entergy was last at $60.00-$61.00. Ercot was last at $53.40-$54.50/mwh.
Support is at $5.60-$5.62, $5.50-$5.52, $5.42-$5.45, $5.31-$5.33, $5.19-$5.21, $5.12-$5.14, $4.96-$4.99, $4.83-$4.85, $4.64-$4.66, $4.40-$4.43, $4.15-$4.17, $4.05-$4.08, $3.73-$3.75, $3.66-$3.68, $3.50-$3.53, $3.44-$3.46, $3.28-$3.32, $2.91-$2.93, $2.80-$2.82, $2.74-$2.75, $2.69-$2.70, $2.62-$2.64, and $240-$2.43. Resistance is at $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.04, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37, $6.65-$6.69, $6.90-$6.94, $7.01-$7.04, $7.28-$7.31, and $7.34-$7.36.
Jan Natural Gas: Support: $5.70-$5.72, $5.50-$5.52, $5.42-$5.45, $5.31-$5.33, $5.19-$5.21, $5.12-$5.14.
Resistance: $5.87-$5.90, $5.96-$6.01, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37, $6.65-$6.69, $6.90-$6.94.
Natural gas prices were back down yesterday, reinvigorating the possibility a top is being constructed. We don’t believe it is.
Dollars per million Btu
Natural gas prices are just a few cents away from printing a new high for the period of 2009 and 2010 (thus far, 2 days in).
Dollars per million Btu
EIA Weekly Storage Figures
Last week’s EIA report showed a draw of 124 bcf on expectations for a draw of 147 bcf. Stocks are now 379 bcf higher than a year ago, against a surplus of 359 bcf a week ago, a surplus of 381 bcf two weeks ago and a surplus of 472 bcf three weeks ago. Stocks are now 13.08% higher than a year ago. They are 391 bcf and 13.55% above the five-year average.
For this week, the eight-year average (of similar Friday reports) was a draw of 87.88 bcf. The five-year average was a draw of 75.0 bcf. Last year, there was a draw of 47 bcf.
EIA Report
| Region | 12-25-09 | 12-18-09 | Change | Last Year | 5 Yr Avg |
| Cons East | 1779 | 1869 | dn 90 | 1603 | 1629 |
| Cons West | 453 | 464 | dn 11 | 403 | 388 |
| Producing | 1044 | 1067 | dn 23 | 891 | 868 |
| Total US | 3276 | 3400 | dn 124 | 2897 | 2885 |
Bcf, or Billions of cubic feet. Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy
News & Views
| In trading on Nymex, February crude oil prices were down $0.16 at $81.61/barrel at 8:30 AM EST, this morning. February heating oil prices were down 1.77 cents to 2.1764/gallon. February RBOB prices were down 1.84 cents to $2.1066. February natural gas prices were up $0.111 to $5.748/mmBtu. Traders were selling oil futures this morning in an effort to back away from the thinner end of the branch so many had crawled out on. The API report had longs scrambling to even up before the DOE report. DOE Expectations The table below lists the final survey results for Dow Jones, Bloomberg and Reuters. The DOE report will be released at 10:30 AM EDT on Wednesday morning this week. Category Dow Jones Bloomberg Reuters Crude dn 0.300 dn 1.000 dn 0.500 mln bbls Distillate dn 1.800 dn 1.850 dn 1.900 Gasoline up 0.300 up 0.800 up 0.500 Utilization up 0.2% up 0.4% up 0.3% 
Crude oil prices were higher again yesterday, but they failed again to breach the resistance at $82.00. The bulls may need to regroup before they can remove that resistance, after a vertical ascent. | 
Heating oil prices were slightly higher yesterday, but traders were startled by last night’s API report. That makes this morning’s DOE numbers all that much more significant. The trend is higher. DOE History: Distillate stocks have grown in each of the last eight years, by an average of 3.674 mln bbls. The eight-year average is a build of 3.674 mln bbls. Gasoline stocks rose in seven of the last eight years, for a seven-year average build of 3.633 mln bbls and an eight-year average build of 3.154 mln bbls. Crude oil stocks have been lower in five of the last eight years for a five-year average draw of 3.880 mln bbls and it has an eight-year average draw of 1.390 mln bbls. Utilization has been higher in four of the last eight years and has an eight-year average increase of 0.39%, and it has an eight-year average utilization figure of 90.85%. The four-year, pre-hurricane utilization average was 92.40%. Since Katrina, refineries have run at an average utilization rate of 89.30%. Crude oil imports have been higher in three of the last six years, and the average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been up 124,000 bpd. The average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been 9.900 million bpd. |
| Crude oil prices have risen nearly vertically, and may need a dip. | |
The bulls seem to have gotten ahead of themselves this week, after having so many factors fall their way at the end of 2009. Maybe they started to believe their own press releases. In any event, last night’s API report had longs scrambling overnight to reduce their long exposure, in case the DOE echoes the API results. The fact that this week has produced builds in distillate stocks in each of the last eight years is now looking like more than a potentially idle statistic. We will see.
An Illustrated Look at Energy Market Factors
A Look at the US Dollar Versus the Euro
Dollar-Euro (dollar in euro cents): Three-Month Bar-Chart 
The US dollar started out higher yesterday, but it sold off rather steeply as the session progressed. That weakness helped provide the bulls with another clip of ammunition on a day dominated by the bitterly cold weather. It almost does not matter here; the bulls only buy oil against signals generated here, and any weakness here gives us buying in oil.
Source: http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forexqkchart&curcode1=USD&curcode2=EUR
A Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (djia)
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Six-Month Chart
The DJIA gained more than 155 points yesterday, and it is just a hair’s breadth away from bursting to fresh highs. This strength also lent strength to the oil markets yesterday.
Source: http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=djia&sid=1643&time=6mo&Submit1=Refresh
A Look at Temperatures
Temperatures remain on the cold side across large parts of the country today.
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| Wind chill factors are extreme and are likely to remain a factor through the week. |
Recommendations for Specific Market Segments
Heating Oil Distributors Heating oil prices were higher again yesterday, and this week’s DOE figures are in a way “free” ones for heating oil, in the same way that this week’s EIA numbers will be for natural gas. At the heart of the issue for both heating fuels is the intensely cold weather that has been experienced this week and which will be reflected in next week’s statistics. If distillate consumption took a break last week, plenty of traders will use any dip to buy in anticipation of much more bullish numbers next week. As a result, we would be buying somewhat aggressively if this morning’s report is bearish enough to push quotes lower. We need to do any buying almost immediately into any lower figures because, if they have rallied after that and are higher at noon than at 11 AM, we would expect to see a strong close today. We would hold caps and add to them on any initially bearish reaction to this morning’s DOE report – or before then, if lower on the day, already, at that stage. Please buy caps, only. Diesel Users We would hold and add to capped-price protection here today. NYH Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…219.15-219.40 minus 0.125 USG Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…215.90-216.40 minus 3.250 Jet/Kerosene Users & Airlines New York Harbor cash market differentials were 1.75 to 2.00 cents over January heating oil in NY Harbor and 2.50 to 2.25 under the screen in the US Gulf. Diesel & Gasoline Marketers We want to be hedged against downside risk, despite the apparent bias to higher numbers. Gasoline Blenders & End-Users The market is headed higher and we see little, other than long liquidation, capable of stopping it here. Prompt NYH Fuel Ethanol…..207.00-210.00 Prompt USG Fuel Ethanol….196.00-198.00 Quotes from 01-04-10 Heating Oil End-Users We would hold and add to capped-price protection this morning. Speculators The market has everything lined up for higher prices. We would be buying into dips before 11 AM this morning. . Refiners The 7:5+2 crack spread was $8.31 Thursday. Crude Oil Producers Crude oil prices were higher yesterday, but they failed to break above the key resistance at $82.00. That looks more significant right now than it did even yesterday, after yesterday afternoon’s API figures and this morning’s early selling. We still think it will break. | Prompt Jet Fuel Prices New York Harbor 221.15-221.40 US Gulf 216.90-217.15 Midwest (Group Three) 220.90-221.90 Midwest (Chicago) 215.40-216.90 Los Angeles 221.00-222.00 San Francisco 221.00-222.00 Portland, Oregon 221.00-222.00 Cents per gallon Propane Prices Mont Belvieu……….…..non-TET………$1.392500 Cents per gallon  Gasoline prices broke to new recent highs and they eclipsed the highs seen in 2009 on the second trading day of 2010. Having accomplished that, traders must reconcile last night’s API numbers with today’s DOE statistics. The API showed a huge increase in gasoline stocks along with paltry demand.
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