Prices for January 8th, 2009
| HEATING OIL cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | FEB | 220.81 | 215.87 | 220.03 | up 01.67 | | MAR | 221.45 | 216.90 | 220.69 | up 01.23 | | APR | 221.50 | 217.19 | 220.83 | up 01.08 | | MAY | 221.73 | 218.55 | 221.14 | up 00.99 | | JUN | 222.44 | 218.20 | 221.61 | up 00.87 | | JUL | 223.50 | 220.90 | 222.97 | up 00.85 | | AUG | 225.31 | 222.35 | 224.69 | up 00.77 | | SEP | 226.20 | 225.00 | 226.89 | up 00.67 | | OCT | 229.11 | 227.50 | 229.29 | up 00.57 | | NOV | 229.90 | 229.90 | 231.64 | up 00.52 | | DEC | 234.12 | 232.40 | 233.99 | up 00.47 | | JAN | ---.-- | ---.-- | ---.-- | -- --.-- | | Estimated Volume (day before) total all prev day 89,524 | | NYMEX CRUDE OIL dollars per barrel | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | FEB | 83.47 | 81.80 | 82.75 | up 00.09 | | MAR | 83.98 | 82.40 | 83.30 | up 00.11 | | APR | 84.50 | 83.00 | 83.87 | up 00.12 | | MAY | 85.02 | 83.62 | 84.47 | up 00.18 | | JUN | 85.53 | 84.10 | 85.01 | up 00.26 | | JUL | 85.99 | 84.61 | 85.53 | up 00.33 | | | | | | | | | Estimated Volume… 485,678 Opec Basket…$80.12 up $0.48
Prompt #2 Oil NYH 88..-1.50 to -1.00, 74 Lo S…-1.50 to -1.00
US Gulf 88 grade…-4.50 to -4.00, 74 grade Lo S…-3.50 to -3.00 Group .........-6.00 to -5.75 Lo S.....-6.00 to -5.75
Chicago ......-13.75 to -13.25 cash quotes by Dow Jones | | | |
| NYMEX RBOB GASOLINE cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | FEB | 217.20 | 211.62 | 215.53 | up 02.04 | | MAR | 218.14 | 213.10 | 216.53 | up 01.62 | | APR | 227.95 | 223.74 | 226.53 | up 01.12 | | MAY | 228.09 | 224.58 | 227.38 | up 01.06 | | JUN | 229.19 | 225.86 | 227.94 | up 01.01 | | JUL | 228.05 | 227.75 | 227.90 | up 00.92 | | AUG | ---.-- | ---.-- | ---.-- | -- --.-- | | SEP | 226.91 | 225.50 | 226.72 | up 00.77 | | Estimated RB Volume day before 81,527 | | NYMEX NATURAL GAS dollars per mmBtu | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | FEB | 5.853 | 5.621 | 5.749 | dn 0.057 | | MAR | 5.810 | 5.586 | 5.712 | dn 0.044 | | APR | 5.741 | 5.546 | 5.664 | dn 0.040 | | MAY | 5.785 | 5.588 | 5.707 | dn 0.036 | | | Estimated Volume…day before (267,835)
Nymex statistics are based on composite Access & Day Sessions
Prompt Gasoline NYH M5 -1.50 /-1.00 RBOB +6.25 /+6.75
US Gulf M4: -3.75 to -3.25 RBOB +2.00 to +2.25
L.A. Conv Reg 217.00-218.00, N-grade Group 210.05-210.30 Chi 208.05-209.05 | |
Market Review for Friday & over the weekend
Number of economists had been looking at the December unemployment report as the one that could have turned the employment picture around. It was hoped and, in some cases, even expected that this latest set of monthly figures might have shown the end to higher unemployment figures. If it had been, a number of observers would have certainly taken a more positive view of the economic recovery.
At the same time as analysts were hoping for an end to unemployment gains, gasoline prices were breaking above $3.00 a gallon in many places. Last year, oil prices took their cues from the economy. In 2010, there is a fear, here at least, that oil prices may have a bigger impact on the economy. One factor that seems to have been completely overlooked in our headlong rush to recession was the very negative impact of higher food and fuel prices on household spending. Few economists highlighted the simple reality that people will pay for food and fuel before they pay their rent or mortgages.
| Fuel for Thought Consumer credit outstanding fell by a record $17.5 billion in November, as consumers continued to pull in their purchases made with borrowed money. Unemployment and much stricter lending rules were certainly a big part of this, but there were also signs that consumers – with access to credit – chose not to use it. This was the 10th consecutive month of reduced credit outstanding in the US. The biggest decline was in credit cards, or “revolving credit,” which saw a reduction of $13.7 billion in November. Non-revolving credit for items like automobiles, fell a further $3.8 billion, the Federal Reserve reported. The Fed does not release figures for credit covered by real estate. Despite this, consumer spending increased in November. |
After nine solid months of taking its cues from a weak US dollar and from higher equities prices, factors that seem to have coincided with a general assumption that the economy had turned the corner, oil prices are now dangerously close to triple the levels they were at their lows in December, 2008. And there is a long history of tripled oil prices causing consternation among consumers. We are not there, yet, but gasoline prices at more that $3.00 is certainly an unwelcome sign of consumer distress.
The fact that we have plenty of oil, plenty of heating oil and gasoline, does nothing to make consumers feel better. And, in their haste to use commodities as a hedge against a weaker dollar (which is no longer weakening) or inflation (which, when it does exist, is mostly a manifestation of their own buying in commodities), the ubiquitous investors buying oil may just be condemning the economy to a double dip. Ironically, if these same investors had followed the script that had done well for them and the economy in the past – buying companies that produce commodities, things might be looking much differently.
Now, crude oil is 33.9% higher than the average seen in 2009. Heating oil is 32.1% and gasoline is 27.6% higher than the averages seen for all of last year.
Technicals
Oil prices were mostly higher on Friday, although refined products were much stronger than crude oil was. At the same time, though, only gasoline prices broke to new highs, free and clear. Crude oil and heating oil prices are caught in consolidations, with resistance up to $83.52 and 221.20. Breakouts over those levels would be decisively bullish.
Cents per gallon
Above: Despite the coldest winter in decades, heating oil prices are only 4.5 cents above gasoline prices, here.
February crude oil now has buy-stops over $83.55, $84.83, $85.13, $89.82, $90.99, $93.02, $96.03, $100.37, $102.85, $106.91, $108.11, $108.70, $109.60, and $110.45-$110.60. Sell-stops are under $80.85, $79.60, $79.00, $77.75, $76.00, $74.25, $72.70, $71.99, $71.20, $70.55, $69.30, $68.55, $68.00, $65.80-$66.20, and $64.95. February heating oil has buy-stops over 221.20, 220.60, 225.80, 227.05, 229.08, 238.95, 249.62, 251.50, 256.48, 265.89, 273.20, 288.50, 295.00, 299.71, and 303.00. Sell stops are under 215.85, 213.00, 210.00, 203.85, 199.80, 195.00, 191.00, 190.00, 189.55, 188.70, 187.00, 186.50, 182.63, 177.00, 176.68, 173.75, 171.10, 170.35, 168.60, 167.65, and 166.90. February RBOB has buy-stops over 217.20, 222.70, 228.86, 240.10, 250.40, 252.00, 265.10, 267.85, 270.85, 272.00, and 280.25. Sell-stops are under 211.60, 209.33, 202.65, 198.60, 194.55, 189.65, 185.00-185.15, 184.60, 182.40, 181.20, 179.20, 177.30, 175.14, 171.40, and 170.25.
Football: The bulls gained a yard on Friday, making it third and 14 to go today.
Technical Support & Resistance
Feb crude oil Support: $80.85-$81.00, $79.60-$79.75, $79.00-$79.20, $77.75-$77.85, $76.00-$76.20.
Resistance: $83.45-$83.55, $84.70-$84.85, $85.05-$85.15, $89.70-$89.85, $90.90-$91.00.
Feb heating oil Support: 215.85-216.00, 213.00-213.15, 211.35-211.50, 209.30-209.45, 205.80-206.00.
Resistance: 221.00-221.20, 225.60-225.80, 226.95-227.05, 228.95-229.10, 238.85-238.95.
Feb Rbob Support: 211.60-211.75, 209.30-209.40, 206.70-206.80, 204.55-204.65, 202.65-202.75.
Resistance: 217.00-217.20, 222.60-222.70, 228.75-228.86, 239.80-240.10, 250.25-250.40.
Oil Inventory Reports
This week’s DOE report will command traders’ attention in distillate stocks, which should go against their historical grain by showing a rather large draw. Only one in the last eight years – 2002 – showed any draw at all for this particular reporting week. Our own attention will then take us to distillate demand, which should be higher, and then to refinery utilization, which may tell us more about this winter’s maintenance plans. We normally see significant declines in utilization in January, but the existence of so much spare capacity could allow refineries to rotate units in and out of service.
Last Week’s Inventory Comparison: Distillate stocks are now 13.0 million bbls, or 8.90%, higher than a year ago. Heating oil inventories are 1.8 mln bbls, or 4.36%, higher than they were a year ago. Gasoline stocks are 6.1 mln bbls (up 2.86%) higher against a year ago. Crude oil stocks are now 1.5 million bbls, or 0.46%, higher than a year ago. Residual stocks are 1.1 mln bbls (3.05%) lower than a year ago, jet fuel stocks are 3.7 mln bbls, (9.74%) higher than a year ago. Utilization is 4.74% lower than a year ago and 10.99% below the eight-year average. It is 12.54% lower than the four-year, pre-Katrina average and 9.44% below the average of the four years since the big hurricanes (Katrina & Rita) in 2005.
Last Week’s Demand: Four-week, total refined products demand came in at 19.192 million bpd, up 0.102 mln bbls on the week, and up 0.050 mln bpd and 0.26% against a year ago. Twelve weeks ago, it was 0.900 mln bpd and 5.03% higher than a year ago. Four-week gasoline demand is at 8.956 mln bpd, up 0.32%, compared to up 6.23% 12 weeks ago. Four-week distillate demand is now at 3.746 mln bpd, down 0.98%, compared to down 14.80% eight weeks ago. Four-week jet demand is now at 1.509 mln bpd, up 8.17%, compared to up 0.14% four weeks ago and 1.61% five weeks ago. Four-week residual fuel demand is at 0.464 mln bpd, down 38.38%, compared to down 1.19% seven weeks ago. Propane use is up 16.38%, at 1.563 mln bpd, compared to being up 17.63% six weeks ago.
Last Week’s API Report: This week’s API report showed a draw of 2.267 mln bbls in crude oil stocks, a build of 0.962 mln bbls in distillate stocks and a build of 5.575 mln bbls in gasoline inventories. Utilization was up 1.3% to 79.5%. Implied demand came in at 8.551 mln bpd in gasoline and at 4.036 mln bpd in distillate. Crude oil imports were up 1.404 mln bpd to 8.734 mln bpd. Implied demand, the increases in crude imports and utilization and the gasoline build were all bearish.
DOE Weekly Inventory Statistics
| Category | Final DOE Estimate
This Week’s Estimate | History
Last Year’s Report | Most Recent Changes
Last Week’s DOE Report | Versus A Year Ago
Millions of Barrels |
| Distillate | dn 2.35 to 2.85 mln bbls | up 6.346 | dn 0.233 mln bbls | up 15.600 |
| Gasoline | dn 0.25 to 0.75 | up 2.068 | up 3.737 | up 4.700 |
| Crude oil | up 2.00 to 3.00 | up 1.144 | up 1.329 | up 1.100 |
| Utilization | up 0.5% to 1.0% | up 0.6% at 85.2% | dn 0.41% at 79.86% | |
| Crude Imports | up 0.500 to 1.000 mmbd | dn 0.756 to 9.729 | up 0.328 to 8.355 mln bpd | |
| DOE Distillate Demand | 3.656 mln bpd | dn 332,000 | Gasoline Demand | 9.074 mln bpd | up 029,000 |
| DOE Distillate Production | 3.710 mln bpd | dn 096,000 | Gasoline Production | 9.028 mln bpd | up 065,000 |
| DOE Distillate Imports | 0.237 mln bpd | dn 098,000 | Gasoline Imports | 0.753 mln bpd | dn 095,000 |
Source: US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration
Open Interest Analysis
Crude oil open interest rose by another 12,383 contracts on Thursday, giving us a net gain of 84,024 contracts so far this new year. Prices are up $3.39 so far in 2010, so this suggests heavy index fund buying.
Heating oil open interest rose by 4,296 contracts on Thursday, when prices were higher. That looks like new buying and would be bullish. Open interest is up 18,534 contracts, with prices up 8.15 cents a gallon in 2010.
RBOB open interest rose by 4,757 contracts on Thursday when prices were higher. That looks like new buying and would be bullish. So far, in 2010, 22,188 new contracts have been added and prices are up 10.28 cents a gallon.
Natural gas open interest rose by 2,636 on Thursday, when prices were lower. Prices are up 17.7 cents on the addition of 33,606 contracts. In this case, though, many of the new contracts seem to have been initiated on the short side.
Thursday’s Open Interest Changes:
Crude 1,277,089 up 12,383 Heat 325,326 up 4,296 RBOB 256,842 up 4,757 Nat gas 739,163 up 2,636
CFTC Commitments of Traders for Nymex (for the period ended Tuesday, Jan. 5th)
Crude oil prices gained $2.90/bbl over the latest reporting period, and the best buying came from producers, who added 5,721 new longs and covered 3,655 shorts. The other categories were net sellers, with swap dealers liquidating 166 longs and adding 5,828 shorts. Managed money liquidated 2,148 longs and added 1,906 shorts. Other reportables liquidated 890 longs and added 2,375 new shorts. These changes were unexpected; we expected more buying by funds, which may have come later.
In heating oil futures, prices gained 7.75 cents a gallon, and the best buying came from managed money accounts. They bought 9,302 new longs against only 1,443 new sales. Swap dealers were minor buyers, with 218 new purchases and 266 covered shorts. Producers liquidated 12,559 longs and covered 2,028 shorts, and other reportables liquidated 1,529 longs and added 514 new shorts. Funds were the ones pushing prices higher in heating oil futures.
Gasoline prices were up 9.60 cents a gallon during the period under review. Managed money added 15,583 new longs and only 118 new shorts. Producers liquidated 10,528 longs and added 6,298 new shorts. Swap dealers liquidated 712 longs and added 122 shorts, while other reportables liquidated 227 longs and added 280 new shorts. Funds pushed prices higher, here.
In natural gas, prices dropped 20.3 cents during the period under review. Large speculators sold 9,624 new contracts, with money managers selling 9,656 contracts. Swap dealers were the best buyers, adding 6,945 contracts, with assorted “other reportables” adding 841 contracts. The short position of money managers is a huge mystery, clearly being spread somewhere.
Natural Gas & Utility Generation
Natural gas prices dropped nearly six cents per million Btu on Friday, and this market is one of the conundrums of the new year. Prices are up 17.7 cents and open interest has increased by 33,606 contracts. Much of the new activity has come noticeably on the downside, and prices are up rather sparingly considering the number of new contracts and the extent of the sustained cold weather across so much of the country and indeed the world (or northern hemisphere) right now. In other words, we are surprised prices are not higher; they seemingly should be.
We have had two apparent breakouts recently, with prices breaking and settling at new highs. And Friday’s prices were 38.1% higher than the average for 2009. It took only three days this year for prices to break and close over the high for all of last year. Temperatures are colder than they have been since the 1970’s. The progression of consistently warmer winters seen in the 1980’s and 1990’s seems to be behind us, with temperatures now having trended colder since the first days of November, 2008. More immediately pressing, one would think, than any of these longer-term factors is the expectation for this week’s EIA underground storage report. It is expected to show the biggest decline in storage in a long time.
That expectation should have been able to carry prices higher, without them looking back, through the end of last week. Instead, they did look back. Scattered forecasts suggest that we could experience a moderate interlude sometime later this month. We do not actually believe we will see it or, if we do, that it will turn out to be less moderate than expected. That is the way just about every weather trend we have seen has turned out. Still, we seem to have had profit-taking and fund selling.
Large speculators added 9,624 shorts and liquidated 436 longs in the week ended last Tuesday. All of this came from money-managers, which have been net short for nearly three years, doubtless long something (possibly oil) against these shorts. It is one of this market’s burning enigmas. On Friday, Baker-Hughes reported an increase of 22 in the number of active rigs, up to 781.
In cash trading on Friday, Henry Hub prices were at $6.08-$6.88, down $0.87-$0.92 on the day (DJN). SoCal prices were at $5.78-$6.31, down $0.42-$1.49 on the day. El Paso Permian prices were down $1.16-$1.50 at $5.70-$6.15. Katy prices were down $0.84-$1.31 to $5.86-$6.79. Waha prices were down $1.28-$1.68 at $5.90-$6.28. Transco 6 was up $1.25-$4.25 at $11.50-$16.00/mmBtu, according to Dow Jones News (DJN). Only prices on pipelines into the Northeast were higher, with most of the rest of the country’s pipe prices declining before the weekend. This spilled into futures.
Palo Verde prices were last quoted at $46.50-$47.75/mwh. Northeastern prices last traded at $60.50-$91.00. Entergy was last at $60.00-$61.00. Ercot was last at $51.00-$56.25/mwh.
Support is at $5.60-$5.62, $5.50-$5.52, $5.42-$5.45, $5.31-$5.33, $5.19-$5.21, $5.12-$5.14, $4.96-$4.99, $4.83-$4.85, $4.64-$4.66, $4.40-$4.43, $4.15-$4.17, $4.05-$4.08, $3.73-$3.75, $3.66-$3.68, $3.50-$3.53, $3.44-$3.46, $3.28-$3.32, $2.91-$2.93, $2.80-$2.82, $2.74-$2.75, $2.69-$2.70, $2.62-$2.64, and $240-$2.43. Resistance is at $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03, $6.09-$6.11, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37, $6.65-$6.69, $6.90-$6.94, $7.01-$7.04, $7.28-$7.31, and $7.34-$7.36.
Jan Natural Gas: Support: $5.60-$5.62, $5.50-$5.52, $5.42-$5.45, $5.31-$5.33, $5.19-$5.21, $5.12-$5.14.
Resistance: $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03, $6.09-$6.11, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37, $6.65-$6.69.
Natural gas prices have had two breakout highs followed by selloffs, which have suspended objectives higher.
Dollars per million Btu
The ratio of crude to natural gas finished at 14.39-to-one on Friday. The average since 2002 is 9.23-to-one.
Dollars per million Btu
EIA Weekly Storage Figures
Last week’s EIA report showed a draw of 153 bcf on expectations for a draw of 151 bcf. Stocks are now 286 bcf higher than a year ago, against a surplus of 379 bcf a week ago, a surplus of 359 bcf two weeks ago and a surplus of 381 bcf three weeks ago. Stocks are now 10.08% higher than a year ago. They are 316 bcf and 11.25% above the five-year average.
For this week, the eight-year average (of similar Friday reports) was a draw of 103.0 bcf. The five-year average was a draw of 79.6 bcf. Last year’s draw was 94 bcf.
EIA Report
| Region | 01-01-10 | 12-25-09 | Change | Last Year | 5 Yr Avg |
| Cons East | 1686 | 1779 | dn 93 | 1547 | 1574 |
| Cons West | 434 | 453 | dn 19 | 390 | 378 |
| Producing | 1003 | 1044 | dn 41 | 900 | 856 |
| Total US | 3123 | 3276 | dn 153 | 2837 | 2807 |
Bcf, or Billions of cubic feet. Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy
News & Views
| In trading on Nymex, February crude oil prices were up $0.78 at $83.53/barrel at 12.30 AM EST, this morning. February heating oil prices were up 2.28 cents to 2.2231/gallon. February RBOB prices were up 1.97 cents to $2.1750. February natural gas prices were down $0.175 to $5.574/mmBtu. Very early this morning, oil prices were bursting higher on a weak US dollar, stronger equities prices and technical momentum. Curiously enough, traders found the silver lining in Friday’s disappointing employment figures – which suggest that the Fed will delay further any change in interest rates. As we approach the point where crude oil stocks could fall from last week’s year-to-year surplus of 1.5 million barrels to a deficit, we might want to remember that last year’s report left stocks 37.8 million barrels above levels seen in early 2008. Distillate stocks were also 11.4 million barrels higher than the year before, although gasoline stocks were 8.0 million barrels lower. Comparisons are improving, but not longer-term. 
Crude oil prices were higher on Friday, but they have lost their upward momentum. There is resistance now at $83.36-$83.52. A settlement above that would signal further upside movement. | 
After breaking higher last week, heating oil prices consolidated without moving appreciably higher. There is resistance now at 220.60-221.20. A settle over that would be bullish. DOE History: Distillate stocks have grown in seven of the last eight years, by an average of 2.206 mln bbls. The eight-year average is a build of 1.893 mln bbls. Gasoline stocks rose in eight of the last eight years, for an eight-year average build of 2.871 mln bbls. Crude oil stocks have been higher in six of the last eight years for a six-year average build of 3.224 mln bbls and it has an eight-year average build of 0.993 mln bbls. Utilization has been lower in six of the last eight years and has an eight-year average decrease of 1.96%, and it has an eight-year average utilization figure of 89.17%. The four-year, pre-hurricane utilization average was 91.67%. Since Katrina, refineries have run at an average utilization rate of 86.67%. Crude oil imports have been higher in three of the last six years, and the average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been down 159,000 bpd. The average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been 10.059 million bpd. Imports have been a solid 2.0 million bpd below that recently. |
| Crude oil prices look ready to advance to new highs this week. | |
Prices look ready to advance beyond last week’s highs today. Traders are looking ahead to a bullish drawdown in distillate stocks in this week’s DOE report. A weaker dollar and stronger equities are also bullish factors as we start the week.
An Illustrated Look at Energy Market Factors
A Look at the US Dollar Versus the Euro
Dollar-Euro (dollar in euro cents): Three-Month Bar-Chart 
The US dollar turned decisively lower on Friday, breaking to the downside of a consolidation built over the last three weeks. We should fully expect prices to continue lower, and should further expect any such weakness to be used as an excuse to buy oil futures – aggressively – by investors.
Source: http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forexqkchart&curcode1=USD&curcode2=EUR
A Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (djia)
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Six-Month Chart
The DJIA made was up 11.33 points on Friday, and it is very near its recent highs. It will not require much, from here, to send prices significantly higher. That, too, is likely to be used by oil bulls to push quotes higher.
Source: http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=djia&sid=1643&time=6mo&Submit1=Refresh
A Look at Temperatures
Temperatures were still cold across most of the country early this morning.
Warmer, more moderate readings are moving south and east through the week.
A Look at Gasoline Supply & Demand
Thirteen-week demand is at 8.985 million bpd, down 0.17% against last year. Thirteen-week supply is at 9.762 mln bpd, down 2.23%. Thirteen-week implied demand is at 9.739 mln bpd, up 0.26% against a year earlier.
A Look at Distillate Supply & Demand
Thirteen-week demand is at 3.611 million bpd, down 10.59% against last year. Thirteen-week supply is at 4.090 mln bpd, down 11.64%. Thirteen-week implied demand is at 4.212 mln bpd, down 5.58%.
A Look at Refinery Utilization
Utilization is 4.74% lower than a year ago and 10.99% below the eight-year average. It is 12.54% lower than the four-year, pre-Katrina average and 9.44% below the average of the four years since the big hurricanes (Katrina & Rita) in 2005.
Recommendations for Specific Market Segments
Heating Oil Distributors Heating oil prices consolidated last week, after breaking the high seen in 2009 on Monday. It looks like it was just a waiting game, though, and prices appear to have broken last week’s high in trading early this morning. If prices follow through on this strength today, we are likely to take another step higher towards the objective to 234.00. We fully expect to see that figure. We have more than 24 million barrels more distillate than two years ago, and that does not matter to this new market, infested, as it is, by investors a few phyla below the speculators who wouldn’t know a barrel of oil if they were up to their knee in it. As a result, we are keen to remain protected, or to increase our upside protection, even at these high levels. We are not looking to go too far out, but we should remember that we have the March seasonal coming right up behind this. Diesel Users We would hold and add to capped-price protection here today. NYH Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…219.00-219.50 minus 0.750 USG Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…218.00-218.50 minus 1.750 Jet/Kerosene Users & Airlines New York Harbor cash market differentials were 1.75 to 2.25 cents over January heating oil in NY Harbor and 2.00 to 1.50 under the screen in the US Gulf. We like locking in differentials. Diesel & Gasoline Marketers We want to be hedged against downside risk, but we would be open to leaving some unhedged here – briefly. It’s dangerous. Gasoline Blenders & End-Users This market has objectives up to 230, 236 and 242. We expect to see the first, although the next two may wait until spring. Prompt NYH Fuel Ethanol…..204.00-206.00 Prompt USG Fuel Ethanol….195.00-197.00 Quotes from 01-06-10 Heating Oil End-Users We would hold and add to capped-price protection when appropriate. Speculators We would hold onto long positions, here. Refiners The 7:5+2 crack spread was $8.31 on Friday. Crude Oil Producers Crude oil prices look like they may try to break last week’s highs, possibly even while we sleep. The trend is higher and we expect to see $85.50 and then probably $90.00, as well. | Prompt Jet Fuel Prices New York Harbor 221.75-222.25 US Gulf 218.00-218.50 Midwest (Group Three) 218.05-220.05 Midwest (Chicago) 214.55-215.55 Los Angeles 221.00-222.00 San Francisco 221.00-222.00 Portland, Oregon 221.00-222.00 Cents per gallon Propane Prices Mont Belvieu……….…..non-TET………$1.410580 Cents per gallon  Gasoline prices broke to fresh highs on Friday, posting gains of slightly more than two cents a gallon. Gasoline prices have now gained 34 cents a gallon over the course of the last month, and that adds a direct cost or tax to consumers of $136 million a day more than they were paying one month ago. That is nearly a billion dollars a week more on gasoline.
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