Prices for January 11th, 2009
| HEATING OIL cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | FEB | 222.72 | 216.60 | 218.01 | dn 02.02 | | MAR | 223.20 | 217.63 | 218.95 | dn 01.74 | | APR | 223.31 | 218.05 | 219.28 | dn 01.55 | | MAY | 222.68 | 218.93 | 219.77 | dn 01.37 | | JUN | 223.81 | 219.50 | 220.41 | dn 01.20 | | JUL | 223.38 | 221.07 | 221.92 | dn 01.05 | | AUG | 226.15 | 222.87 | 223.71 | dn 00.98 | | SEP | 228.40 | 225.09 | 225.96 | dn 00.93 | | OCT | 230.03 | 228.52 | 228.46 | dn 00.83 | | NOV | 230.47 | 230.47 | 230.88 | dn 00.76 | | DEC | 234.68 | 232.10 | 233.28 | dn 00.71 | | JAN | 236.29 | 234.50 | 235.63 | dn 00.66 | | Estimated Volume (day before) total all prev day 107,381 | | NYMEX CRUDE OIL dollars per barrel | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | FEB | 83.95 | 81.96 | 82.52 | dn 00.23 | | MAR | 84.45 | 82.44 | 83.01 | dn 00.29 | | APR | 84.96 | 82.99 | 83.55 | dn 00.32 | | MAY | 85.43 | 83.62 | 84.14 | dn 00.33 | | JUN | 85.95 | 84.31 | 84.70 | dn 00.31 | | JUL | 86.41 | 84.80 | 85.24 | dn 00.29 | | | | | | | | | Estimated Volume… 582,096 Opec Basket…$80.12 up $0.48
Prompt #2 Oil NYH 88..-1.00 to -0.50, 74 Lo S…-0.50 to -0.00
US Gulf 88 grade…-4.00 to -3.50, 74 grade Lo S…-4.00 to -3.50 Group .........-6.00 to -5.75 Lo S.....-6.00 to -5.75
Chicago ......-13.75 to -13.25 cash quotes by Dow Jones | | | |
| NYMEX RBOB GASOLINE cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | FEB | 219.27 | 213.09 | 214.27 | dn 01.26 | | MAR | 220.03 | 214.60 | 215.47 | dn 01.06 | | APR | 229.72 | 224.71 | 225.44 | dn 01.09 | | MAY | 230.46 | 225.73 | 226.39 | dn 00.99 | | JUN | 230.82 | 226.30 | 227.02 | dn 00.92 | | JUL | 229.90 | 226.30 | 226.96 | dn 00.94 | | AUG | 227.75 | 227.75 | 226.61 | dn 00.91 | | SEP | ---.-- | ---.-- | ---.-- | -- --.-- | | Estimated RB Volume day before 119,351 | | NYMEX NATURAL GAS dollars per mmBtu | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | FEB | 5.625 | 5.371 | 5.454 | dn 0.295 | | MAR | 5.611 | 5.350 | 5.432 | dn 0.280 | | APR | 5.580 | 5.331 | 5.405 | dn 0.259 | | MAY | 5.627 | 5.393 | 5.457 | dn 0.250 | | | Estimated Volume…day before (204,692)
Nymex statistics are based on composite Access & Day Sessions
Prompt Gasoline NYH M5 -2.75 /-2.25 RBOB +2.50 /+3.00
US Gulf M4: -3.25 to -3.75 RBOB +2.00 to +2.50
L.A. Conv Reg 214.00-215.00, N-grade Group 217.75-218.25 Chi 214.25-214.75 | |
Market Review for Monday
NERGY prices were lower yesterday, despite an avowed return in the demand for riskier assets. Chinese exports were stronger than expected in December, posting gains after 13 months of declines, and that lent strength to a number of other asset classes. The DJIA advanced to new, recent highs. And the US dollar was under selling pressure for part of the day. These factors should have pushed oil prices higher. In the early trading very early this morning, that was the case. But, as the day wore on, there was profit-taking by longs.
Crude oil futures were at a 15-month high early yesterday, on the Chinese export news and on a weak dollar. The talk was about how risk appetite had returned. It was surprising, at the end of the trading day, to see prices in negative territory. New, revised weather forecasts, calling for moderate readings (near normal), were the reason cited by most market observers in reaction to the market’s lower settlement prices. Curiously, no one was talking about this week’s DOE numbers yesterday.
| Fuel for Thought China’s crude oil imports in December increased to a new record high of 5.03 million barrels a day. Cold temperatures in China were a part of the increased demand, but traders saw the new high import level as a sign that Chinese oil consumption will continue to be the world leader, in terms of percentage gains. This comes at a time when US crude oil imports are almost 2 million bpd below levels seen a year ago, Refineries have been pulling supplies from inventories, rather than purchase them at consistently higher prices on the open market. With refinery utilization at levels typically not seen except after hurricanes, US crude oil imports are likely to remain on the record low side through this first quarter. |
Meteorologists are now talking about what Dow Jones called a “January thaw.” It quoted Planalytics as forecasting a major change in the weather towards the moderate side, starting in the northern Plains, then moving into the upper Midwest, the Great Lakes and then into the Northeast. We had expectations for a huge drawdown in tomorrow’s DOE distillate inventory figure, but traders are now looking beyond that to the possibility of a potentially disappointing future after this report.
We feel that this might be a little premature because weather trends tend to moderate the moderation in the event. We will see. We were surprised yesterday to see oil prices react more to the change in weather – a change that has not arrived, yet – than to a weaker dollar and a stronger (new highs in it) stock market. We honestly believe that the reality of higher oil prices on consumer spending (it acts like a tax) may be coming home to roost. Risk appetites were reportedly stimulated yesterday, but we may have reached satiety. In any event, it was both interesting and satisfying to see weather trump last year’s trump cards of a weaker dollar and stronger equities. It is premature to proclaim a return to a more fundamental market, but it was nice to see.
Technicals
Oil prices started out moving higher yesterday, but they were unable to finish in positive territory. There was heavy profit-taking by the longs, and they pressed quotes down rather severely, given some of the positive factors existing yesterday. All three contracts broke resistance but failed to finish above those levels, making common reversals.
Dollars per barrel
Above: Despite the coldest winter in decades, heating oil prices are only 4.5 cents above gasoline prices, here.
February crude oil now has buy-stops over $83.95, $84.83, $85.13, $89.82, $90.99, $93.02, $96.03, $100.37, $102.85, $106.91, $108.11, $108.70, $109.60, and $110.45-$110.60. Sell-stops are under $81.95, $80.85, $79.60, $79.00, $77.75, $76.00, $74.25, $72.70, $71.99, $71.20, $70.55, $69.30, $68.55, $68.00, $65.80-$66.20, and $64.95. February heating oil has buy-stops over 222.72, 225.80, 227.05, 229.08, 238.95, 249.62, 251.50, 256.48, 265.89, 273.20, 288.50, 295.00, 299.71, and 303.00. Sell stops are under 216.60, 215.85, 213.00, 210.00, 203.85, 199.80, 195.00, 191.00, 190.00, 189.55, 188.70, 187.00, 186.50, 182.63, 177.00, 176.68, 173.75, 171.10, 170.35, and 168.60. February RBOB has buy-stops over 219.27, 222.70, 228.86, 240.10, 250.40, 252.00, 265.10, 267.85, 270.85, 272.00, and 280.25. Sell-stops are under 213.00, 211.60, 209.33, 202.65, 198.60, 194.55, 189.65, 185.00-185.15, 184.60, 182.40, 181.20, 179.20, 177.30, 175.14, 171.40, and 170.25.
Football: The bulls lost two yards on third and 14, making it fourth and 16 to go today.
Technical Support & Resistance
Feb crude oil Support: $81.95-$82.10, $80.85-$81.00, $79.60-$79.75, $79.00-$79.20, $77.75-$77.85.
Resistance: $83.85-$83.95, $84.70-$84.85, $85.05-$85.15, $89.70-$89.85, $90.90-$91.00.
Feb heating oil Support: 216.60-216.75, 215.85-216.00, 213.00-213.15, 211.35-211.50, 209.30-209.45.
Resistance: 222.60-222.72, 225.60-225.80, 226.95-227.05, 228.95-229.10, 238.85-238.95.
Feb Rbob Support: 213.00-213.15, 211.60-211.75, 209.30-209.40, 206.70-206.80, 204.55-204.65.
Resistance: 219.10-219.30, 222.60-222.70, 228.75-228.86, 239.80-240.10, 250.25-250.40.
Oil Inventory Reports
This week’s DOE report will command traders’ attention in distillate stocks, which should go against their historical grain by showing a rather large draw. Only one in the last eight years – 2002 – showed any draw at all for this particular reporting week. Our own attention will then take us to distillate demand, which should be higher, and then to refinery utilization, which may tell us more about this winter’s maintenance plans. We normally see significant declines in utilization in January, but the existence of so much spare capacity could allow refineries to rotate units in and out of service.
Last Week’s Inventory Comparison: Distillate stocks are now 13.0 million bbls, or 8.90%, higher than a year ago. Heating oil inventories are 1.8 mln bbls, or 4.36%, higher than they were a year ago. Gasoline stocks are 6.1 mln bbls (up 2.86%) higher against a year ago. Crude oil stocks are now 1.5 million bbls, or 0.46%, higher than a year ago. Residual stocks are 1.1 mln bbls (3.05%) lower than a year ago, jet fuel stocks are 3.7 mln bbls, (9.74%) higher than a year ago. Utilization is 4.74% lower than a year ago and 10.99% below the eight-year average. It is 12.54% lower than the four-year, pre-Katrina average and 9.44% below the average of the four years since the big hurricanes (Katrina & Rita) in 2005.
Last Week’s Demand: Four-week, total refined products demand came in at 19.192 million bpd, up 0.102 mln bbls on the week, and up 0.050 mln bpd and 0.26% against a year ago. Twelve weeks ago, it was 0.900 mln bpd and 5.03% higher than a year ago. Four-week gasoline demand is at 8.956 mln bpd, up 0.32%, compared to up 6.23% 12 weeks ago. Four-week distillate demand is now at 3.746 mln bpd, down 0.98%, compared to down 14.80% eight weeks ago. Four-week jet demand is now at 1.509 mln bpd, up 8.17%, compared to up 0.14% four weeks ago and 1.61% five weeks ago. Four-week residual fuel demand is at 0.464 mln bpd, down 38.38%, compared to down 1.19% seven weeks ago. Propane use is up 16.38%, at 1.563 mln bpd, compared to being up 17.63% six weeks ago.
Last Week’s API Report: This week’s API report showed a draw of 2.267 mln bbls in crude oil stocks, a build of 0.962 mln bbls in distillate stocks and a build of 5.575 mln bbls in gasoline inventories. Utilization was up 1.3% to 79.5%. Implied demand came in at 8.551 mln bpd in gasoline and at 4.036 mln bpd in distillate. Crude oil imports were up 1.404 mln bpd to 8.734 mln bpd. Implied demand, the increases in crude imports and utilization and the gasoline build were all bearish.
DOE Weekly Inventory Statistics
| Category | Final DOE Estimate
This Week’s Estimate | History
Last Year’s Report | Most Recent Changes
Last Week’s DOE Report | Versus A Year Ago
Millions of Barrels |
| Distillate | dn 2.35 to 2.85 mln bbls | up 6.346 | dn 0.233 mln bbls | up 15.600 |
| Gasoline | dn 0.25 to 0.75 | up 2.068 | up 3.737 | up 4.700 |
| Crude oil | up 2.00 to 3.00 | up 1.144 | up 1.329 | up 1.100 |
| Utilization | up 0.5% to 1.0% | up 0.6% at 85.2% | dn 0.41% at 79.86% | |
| Crude Imports | up 0.500 to 1.000 mmbd | dn 0.756 to 9.729 | up 0.328 to 8.355 mln bpd | |
| DOE Distillate Demand | 3.656 mln bpd | dn 332,000 | Gasoline Demand | 9.074 mln bpd | up 029,000 |
| DOE Distillate Production | 3.710 mln bpd | dn 096,000 | Gasoline Production | 9.028 mln bpd | up 065,000 |
| DOE Distillate Imports | 0.237 mln bpd | dn 098,000 | Gasoline Imports | 0.753 mln bpd | dn 095,000 |
Source: US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration
Open Interest Analysis
Crude oil open interest rose by another 12,536 contracts on Friday, when prices were higher, giving us a net gain of 96,560 contracts so far this new year. Prices are up $3.16 so far in 2010.
Heating oil open interest fell by 1,405 contracts on Friday, when prices were higher. That looks like new buying and would be bullish. Open interest is up 17,129 contracts, with prices up 6.13 cents a gallon in 2010.
RBOB open interest rose by 3,396 contracts on Friday when prices were higher. That looks like new buying and would be bullish. So far, in 2010, 25,584 new contracts have been added and prices are up 9.02 cents a gallon.
Natural gas open interest rose by 754 on Friday, when prices were lower. Prices are up 12.0 cents on the addition of 34,360 contracts. In this case, the new contracts were when prices dropped, which would be bearish.
Friday’s Open Interest Changes:
Crude 1,289,625 up 12,536 Heat 323,921 dn 1,405 RBOB 260,238 up 3,396 Nat gas 739,917 up 754
CFTC Commitments of Traders for Nymex (for the period ended Tuesday, Jan. 5th)
Crude oil prices gained $2.90/bbl over the latest reporting period, and the best buying came from producers, who added 5,721 new longs and covered 3,655 shorts. The other categories were net sellers, with swap dealers liquidating 166 longs and adding 5,828 shorts. Managed money liquidated 2,148 longs and added 1,906 shorts. Other reportables liquidated 890 longs and added 2,375 new shorts. These changes were unexpected; we expected more buying by funds, which may have come later.
In heating oil futures, prices gained 7.75 cents a gallon, and the best buying came from managed money accounts. They bought 9,302 new longs against only 1,443 new sales. Swap dealers were minor buyers, with 218 new purchases and 266 covered shorts. Producers liquidated 12,559 longs and covered 2,028 shorts, and other reportables liquidated 1,529 longs and added 514 new shorts. Funds were the ones pushing prices higher in heating oil futures.
Gasoline prices were up 9.60 cents a gallon during the period under review. Managed money added 15,583 new longs and only 118 new shorts. Producers liquidated 10,528 longs and added 6,298 new shorts. Swap dealers liquidated 712 longs and added 122 shorts, while other reportables liquidated 227 longs and added 280 new shorts. Funds pushed prices higher, here.
In natural gas, prices dropped 20.3 cents during the period under review. Large speculators sold 9,624 new contracts, with money managers selling 9,656 contracts. Swap dealers were the best buyers, adding 6,945 contracts, with assorted “other reportables” adding 841 contracts. The short position of money managers is a huge mystery, clearly being spread somewhere.
Natural Gas & Utility Generation
Natural gas prices were down nearly 30 cents per million Btu yesterday, a decline of more than 5%. In addition to profit-taking by longs, we saw the ubiquitous fund selling that has been evident for the last three years. Commission houses and then technical traders, including floor traders (speculators operating on their own hook), were selling once prices broke beneath $5.50/mmBtu. End-users were cautiously buying into the weakness. Over the next two days, there will be a critical test of a trendline drawn from the low at $2.409/mmBtu.
That trendline will offer support today around $5.25. The number will rise through the week. A decisive break (with a settlement) beneath the trendline would be extremely bearish, especially coming on the heels of yesterday’s breakdown and finish below the support at $5.505. We know that underground storage levels remain higher than a year ago and they are above the five-year average for this time of year. But, the surpluses have come a long way from their worst conditions, and last week’s report saw the surpluses cut significantly. Higher storage levels were the animating force behind the decline from $13.69 to $2.40. The figures have improved since then.
This week’s underground storage figures are likely to be decidedly bullish. There is the possibility of there being a record withdrawal (274 bcf January, 2008). In any event, this should be a bullish report (early call for 260-270 bcf). Unfortunately for the bulls, it will almost certainly be eclipsed by expectations for a much smaller and milder withdrawal in a future report. That will make this a classic buy the rumor (ahead of the report) and sell the fact (its release), if it even gets that far.
Weather is to natural gas what location is to real estate. It is just about everything. Storage levels are decided by the extremes of heat and cold. We are still leery of going against so well-established a trend in the weather, but profit-taking makes perfect sense, here. The crucial decision will come with the breaking or holding of the trendline, which could be as soon as today or tomorrow.
In cash trading yesterday, Henry Hub prices were at $5.61-$5.93, down $0.47-$0.95 on the day (DJN). SoCal prices were at $5.65-$5.81, down $0.13-$0.50 on the day. El Paso Permian prices were down $0.23-$0.38 at $5.47-$5.67. Katy prices were down $0.43-$1.01 to $5.43-$5.78. Waha prices were down $0.30-$0.55 at $5.60-$5.73. Transco 6 was down $4.50-$7.44 at $7.00-$8.56/mmBtu, according to Dow Jones News (DJN). Northeastern pipelines were crushed as traders looked ahead to more moderate temperatures. It was hard for futures to hold up in the face of such weak cash prices.
Palo Verde prices were last quoted at $44.75-$47.75/mwh. Northeastern prices last traded at $65.75-$71.00. Entergy was last at $60.75-$63.50. Ercot was last at $46.00-$46.75/mwh.
Support is at $5.42-$5.45, $5.37-$5.38, $5.31-$5.33, $5.19-$5.21, $5.12-$5.14, $4.96-$4.99, $4.83-$4.85, $4.64-$4.66, $4.40-$4.43, $4.15-$4.17, $4.05-$4.08, $3.73-$3.75, $3.66-$3.68, $3.50-$3.53, $3.44-$3.46, $3.28-$3.32, $2.91-$2.93, $2.80-$2.82, $2.74-$2.75, $2.69-$2.70, $2.62-$2.64, and $240-$2.43. Resistance is at $5.62-$5.63, $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03, $6.09-$6.11, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37, $6.65-$6.69, $6.90-$6.94, $7.01-$7.04, $7.28-$7.31, and $7.34-$7.36.
Jan Natural Gas: Support: $5.42-$5.45, $5.37-$5.38, $5.31-$5.33, $5.19-$5.21, $5.12-$5.14, $4.96-$4.99..
Resistance: $5.62-$5.63, $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03, $6.09-$6.11, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37.
Natural gas prices broke $5.50, but have trendline support @ $5.25 today.
Dollars per million Btu
Natural gas prices have fallen to a long-term trendline offering support, and technical traders will be looking at this carefully.
Dollars per million Btu
EIA Weekly Storage Figures
Last week’s EIA report showed a draw of 153 bcf on expectations for a draw of 151 bcf. Stocks are now 286 bcf higher than a year ago, against a surplus of 379 bcf a week ago, a surplus of 359 bcf two weeks ago and a surplus of 381 bcf three weeks ago. Stocks are now 10.08% higher than a year ago. They are 316 bcf and 11.25% above the five-year average.
For this week, the eight-year average (of similar Friday reports) was a draw of 103.0 bcf. The five-year average was a draw of 79.6 bcf. Last year’s draw was 94 bcf.
EIA Report
| Region | 01-01-10 | 12-25-09 | Change | Last Year | 5 Yr Avg |
| Cons East | 1686 | 1779 | dn 93 | 1547 | 1574 |
| Cons West | 434 | 453 | dn 19 | 390 | 378 |
| Producing | 1003 | 1044 | dn 41 | 900 | 856 |
| Total US | 3123 | 3276 | dn 153 | 2837 | 2807 |
Bcf, or Billions of cubic feet. Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy
News & Views
| In trading on Nymex, February crude oil prices were down $0.4978 at $82.03/barrel at 1.30 AM EST, this morning. February heating oil prices were down 1.66 cents to 2.1635/gallon. February RBOB prices were down 1.12 cents to $2.1315. February natural gas prices were up $0.016 to $5.470/mmBtu. Milder weather forecasts are continuing to put pressure on the entire oil complex. Traders will look ahead to this week’s reports by the time we get to the afternoon part of today’s session. DOE Expectations The table below lists the first survey results for Dow Jones, Bloomberg and Reuters. The DOE report will be released at 10:30 AM EDT on Wednesday morning this week. Category Dow Jones Bloomberg Reuters Crude up x.300 up 1.500 up 1.000 mln bbls Distillate dn x.800 dn 1.000 dn 1.700 Gasoline up x.300 up 1.400 up 0.900 Utilization up 0.x% up 0.5% up 0.4% 
Crude oil prices were higher early yesterday, but they sold off later in the day, giving us a common reversal day. Prices broke $83.52, but could not settle above that level. | 
Heating oil prices broke higher in early trading yesterday, but they sold off through the day and finished near the day’s lows, giving is a common reversal Prices broke 221.20, but could not finish above it. DOE History: Distillate stocks have grown in seven of the last eight years, by an average of 2.206 mln bbls. The eight-year average is a build of 1.893 mln bbls. Gasoline stocks rose in eight of the last eight years, for an eight-year average build of 2.871 mln bbls. Crude oil stocks have been higher in six of the last eight years for a six-year average build of 3.224 mln bbls and it has an eight-year average build of 0.993 mln bbls. Utilization has been lower in six of the last eight years and has an eight-year average decrease of 1.96%, and it has an eight-year average utilization figure of 89.17%. The four-year, pre-hurricane utilization average was 91.67%. Since Katrina, refineries have run at an average utilization rate of 86.67%. Crude oil imports have been higher in three of the last six years, and the average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been down 159,000 bpd. The average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been 10.059 million bpd. Imports have been a solid 2.0 million bpd below that recently. |
| Crude oil prices look ready to advance to new highs this week. | |
Right this minute, it is the weather. We still have some critical reports out tonight and again tomorrow morning with the DOE report’s release. Distillate stocks are the big wild card this week. Some traders may look beyond a bullish report.
An Illustrated Look at Energy Market Factors
A Look at the US Dollar Versus the Euro
Dollar-Euro (dollar in euro cents): Three-Month Bar-Chart 
The US dollar rallied unexpectedly, but is in a weaker framework. The biggest bearish factor came from last week’s unemployment report, which suggests that the Fed will keep interest rates where they are for an extended period. The bottom line is that traders are looking for higher yields ore better returns elsewhere.
Source: http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forexqkchart&curcode1=USD&curcode2=EUR
A Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (djia)
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Six-Month Chart
The DJIA made was up 45.80 points yesterday, and it broke to new recent highs. Traders were looking at factors that encourage risk-taking and they were encouraged by statistics showing renewed Chinese growth.
Source: http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=djia&sid=1643&time=6mo&Submit1=Refresh
A Look at Michigan’s snow fall recently
We do not know what words can possibly augment this picture. This is the clearing of a highway.
This is a picture of a car driving in Michigan. A recent snowstorm dumped 44 inches of snow.
A Look at Inventories
A Look at Imports
Crude oil imports are at their lowest levels in decades.
Recommendations for Specific Market Segments
Heating Oil Distributors Heating oil prices dropped 2 cents yesterday as heating oil traders took profits on long positions. What was remarkable about this was the fact that traders placed a change in the weather above both the US dollar and the DJIA. Last year, that might not have been the case. It is all the more worth remarking upon since heating oil prices were very slow to react on the upside to the bitterly cold readings that have gripped the Northeast since before Christmas. More moderate readings have not even arrived, yet, and traders are already anticipating the change. Prices were overbought, so that could have played a part, but it was a very rapid shift in sentiment. Still, the trend is towards colder weather. The dollar looks likely to weaken further and equities just made new highs. We have to use this decline to add to capped-price protection. On the off-chance that yesterday was a high, we can walk away from them if prices decline. Otherwise, we will be glad for the protection. Diesel Users We would hold and add to capped-price protection here today. NYH Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…217.75-218.25 minus 0.000 USG Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…214.25-214.75 minus 3.500 Jet/Kerosene Users & Airlines New York Harbor cash market differentials were 3.00 to 3.50 cents over January heating oil in NY Harbor and 3.25 to 2.75 under the screen in the US Gulf. We like locking in differentials. Diesel & Gasoline Marketers The first time we suggest leaving something unhedged, and prices dip two cents. It shows that we should stay hedged all the time, here. Gasoline Blenders & End-Users This market has objectives up to 230, 236 and 242. We expect to see the first, although the next two may wait until spring. Prompt NYH Fuel Ethanol…..204.00-206.00 Prompt USG Fuel Ethanol….195.00-197.00 Quotes from 01-06-10 Heating Oil End-Users We would hold caps and would add to them here. Do not use anything other than caps or maybe calls. Futures are treacherous. Speculators We would hold onto long call positions, here. Refiners The 7:5+2 crack spread was $7.92 yesterday. Crude Oil Producers Crude oil prices dropped 23 cents yesterday, which looks like a correction. We would hold and add to calls here. We expect to see prices move higher. There are just too many bullish potential factors at loose here. The trend is higher and we expect to see $85.50 and then probably $90.00, as well. | Prompt Jet Fuel Prices New York Harbor 221.00-221.50 US Gulf 214.75-215.25 Midwest (Group Three) 214.75-215.75 Midwest (Chicago) 211.75-212.75 Los Angeles 219.00-220.00 San Francisco 219.00-220.00 Portland, Oregon 219.00-220.00 Cents per gallon Propane Prices Mont Belvieu……….…..non-TET………$1.359050 Cents per gallon  Gasoline prices broke to fresh highs yesterday but, like the rest of the oil complex, they sold off as the day progressed. This is a common reversal day. These work better than key reversals, but neither typically works as a long-term high in this complex.
Many of the factors that have been used to push prices higher are still out there as factors in this market. We would be surprised if the bullish move were to be end with yesterday’s high. |
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