Prices for January 13th, 2010
| HEATING OIL cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | FEB | 211.89 | 206.00 | 209.46 | dn 03.72 | | MAR | 212.94 | 207.33 | 210.49 | dn 03.68 | | APR | 213.26 | 208.23 | 210.92 | dn 03.61 | | MAY | 213.90 | 209.03 | 211.51 | dn 03.47 | | JUN | 214.75 | 209.60 | 212.35 | dn 03.30 | | JUL | 215.11 | 211.05 | 213.99 | dn 03.21 | | AUG | 217.85 | 214.15 | 215.84 | dn 03.13 | | SEP | 219.90 | 215.50 | 218.09 | dn 03.08 | | OCT | 221.84 | 219.19 | 220.59 | dn 03.01 | | NOV | 224.35 | 221.02 | 223.09 | dn 02.91 | | DEC | 227.18 | 223.00 | 225.59 | dn 02.81 | | JAN | 228.95 | 225.58 | 227.97 | dn 02.78 | | Estimated Volume (day before) total all prev day 115,935 | | NYMEX CRUDE OIL dollars per barrel | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | FEB | 80.67 | 78.37 | 79.65 | dn 01.14 | | MAR | 81.01 | 78.80 | 80.04 | dn 01.13 | | APR | 81.54 | 79.37 | 80.60 | dn 01.10 | | MAY | 82.08 | 80.00 | 81.21 | dn 01.07 | | JUN | 82.67 | 80.56 | 81.80 | dn 01.04 | | JUL | 83.08 | 81.16 | 82.36 | dn 01.04 | | | | | | | | | Estimated Volume… 663,514 Opec Basket…$79.08 dn $1.21
Prompt #2 Oil NYH 88..-0.25 to +0.25, 74 Lo S…-0.75 to -0.25
US Gulf 88 grade…-4.25 to -3.75, 74 grade Lo S…-0.75 to -0.25 Group .........-5.50 to -5.00 Lo S.....-5.50 to -5.00
Chicago ......-12.00 to -11.00 cash quotes by Dow Jones | | | |
| NYMEX RBOB GASOLINE cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | FEB | 208.30 | 202.12 | 206.02 | dn 03.76 | | MAR | 209.84 | 203.87 | 207.54 | dn 03.52 | | APR | 219.63 | 214.17 | 217.72 | dn 03.30 | | MAY | 220.48 | 216.53 | 218.80 | dn 03.11 | | JUN | 220.85 | 216.48 | 219.41 | dn 03.02 | | JUL | 220.70 | 218.25 | 219.38 | dn 03.01 | | AUG | ---.-- | ---.-- | ---.-- | --.--.-- | | SEP | 219.34 | 218.85 | 218.25 | dn 03.01 | | Estimated RB Volume day before 108,949 | | NYMEX NATURAL GAS dollars per mmBtu | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | FEB | 5.785 | 5.432 | 5.733 | up 0.142 | | MAR | 5.755 | 5.399 | 5.704 | up 0.152 | | APR | 5.710 | 5.377 | 5.668 | up 0.148 | | MAY | 5.742 | 5.434 | 5.710 | up 0.141 | | | Estimated Volume…day before (230,480)
Nymex statistics are based on composite Access & Day Sessions
Prompt Gasoline NYH M5 +0.75 /+1.25 RBOB +0.50 /+1.00
US Gulf M4: -3.00 to -2.50 RBOB +2.00 to +2.50
L.A. Conv Reg 196.00-197.00, N-grade Group 201.00-201.50 Chi 198.50-199.50 | |
Market Review for Wednesday
HIS week’s DOE report was nothing we had expected it to be. There was no large drawdown in distillate stocks; in fact, distillate stocks were higher. So were gasoline and crude oil stocks. Demand numbers took a step backwards and it was all around a disappointing report. Even crude oil imports were higher, after weeks of staying stubbornly low. And refinery utilization was higher on the week, increasing by an unexpected 1.4%. Although it is far too early to tell, this report reflecting the first week of the year suggests that refineries may be used their spare capacity to rotate units in and out of maintenance. It has been decades since there was any appreciable spare capacity.
Prices sold off after the release of this week’s report, and the lows were touched shortly after the release. As the day wore on, buying returned as traders started to think about the actual process of heating oil moving from primary to secondary to tertiary storage (homeowners’ oil tanks). Future reports will ultimately reflect the cold we had last week.
| Fuel for Thought With Nigerian President Umaru Yar’Adua in Saudi Arabia now for a number of weeks (since November) and the country experiencing a power vacuum that threatens to push it back into an unofficial civil war over oil revenues, Nigeria’s Federal High Court ruled yesterday that Vice President Goodluck Jonathan can fulfill the president’s role until Mr Yar’Adua can resume his duties. He is undergoing treatment for heart-related problems. Mr Yar’Adua is from the predominantly Muslim north, while Mr Jonathan is from the predominantly Christian south. That has made the vice president’s assumption of presidential duties problematical, with the presidency alternating between the two groups. |
The Federal Reserve’s so-called Beige Book was updated yesterday and the Fed said in it that the economic recovery is spreading to a number of sectors in the economy, but the recovery is too weak right now to dig into unemployment. It described current economic activity as improving, but said it remains at a “low level.” The latest report said that consumer spending in the recent holiday season was better than it had been in 2009, but noted that it still remained well below levels seen in 2007.
Yesterday’s activity highlights the fight going on between fundamental factors and extraneous, outside influences, which were at the heart of the gains seen in oil last year. At the heart of this has been a new insistence on buying ETF’s or index funds trading oil futures, in recent years, by investment banking advisors to large monied interests. In the past, these investors would have stayed away from commodities and invested in the equity of companies involved with those commodities. They would have hedged against dollar weakness by buying other currencies, and would have hedged against inflation by buying gold. They bought oil heavily last week, but have quieted this week.
Technicals
The oil complex dropped again yesterday. It remains to be seen, though, whether they will find support at trendlines or at major support levels. The trends in this complex remain pointed higher, despite their recent weakness. We have to expect the bulls to regain control at some point, soon.
Dollars per barrel
Above: Crude oil prices continue to weaken, but not by much in the larger scheme of things, as the chart above shows.
February crude oil now has buy-stops over $80.67, $82.35, $83.95, $84.83, $85.13, $89.82, $90.99, $93.02, $96.03, $100.37, $102.85, $106.91, $108.11, $108.70, $109.60, and $110.45-$110.60. Sell-stops are under $78.35, $77.75, $76.00, $74.25, $72.70, $71.99, $71.20, $70.55, $69.30, $68.55, $68.00, $65.80-$66.20, and $64.95. February heating oil has buy-stops over 211.90, 217.55, 222.72, 225.80, 227.05, 229.08, 238.95, 249.62, 251.50, 256.48, 265.89, 273.20, 288.50, 295.00, 299.71, and 303.00. Sell stops are under 206.00, 203.85, 199.80, 195.00, 191.00, 190.00, 189.55, 188.70, 187.00, 186.50, 182.63, 177.00, 176.68, 173.75, 171.10, 170.35, and 168.60. February RBOB has buy-stops over 208.30, 214.60, 219.27, 222.70, 228.86, 240.10, 250.40, 252.00, 265.10, 267.85, 270.85, 272.00, and 280.25. Sell-stops are under 202.10, 198.60, 194.55, 189.65, 185.00-185.15, 184.60, 182.40, 181.20, 179.20, 177.30, 175.14, 171.40, and 170.25.
Football: The bears gained 11 yards yesterday on first down, giving them another set of downs. It’s the bears’ first down.
Technical Support & Resistance
Feb crude oil Support: $78.35-$78.50, $77.75-$77.85, $76.00-$76.20, $74.25-$74.40, $72.70-$72.85.
Resistance: $80.55-$80.67, $82.25-$82.35, $83.85-$83.95, $84.70-$84.85, $85.05-$85.15.
Feb heating oil Support: 206.00-206.20, 203.85-204.00, 199.80-200.00, 195.00-195.20, 191.00-191.20.
Resistance: 211.75-211.90, 217.45-217.55, 222.60-222.72, 225.60-225.80, 226.95-227.05.
Feb Rbob Support: 202.10-202.25, 198.60-198.75, 194.55-194.70, 189.65-189.80, 185.00-185.15.
Resistance: 208.10-208.30, 214.45-214.60, 219.10-219.30, 222.60-222.70, 228.75-228.86.
Oil Inventory Reports
This week’s DOE report showed builds in all three major inventory categories, even in distillate stocks. We have to expect to see a serious drawdown at some future point, as the heating oil burned in homes is replaced by material currently in secondary, and then ultimately in primary storage. Refinery utilization was up 1.4% and crude oil imports were up 540,000 bpd, suggesting a refinery maintenance rotation of units. It is still too early to be sure, but that’s the early take. Nevertheless, it is just a matter of time before last week’s cold weather takes some distillate out of this market.
This Week’s Inventory Comparison: Distillate stocks are now 15.0 million bbls, or 10.32%, higher than a year ago. Heating oil inventories are 1.5 mln bbls, or 3.70%, higher than they were a year ago. Gasoline stocks are 9.0 mln bbls (up 4.20%) higher against a year ago. Crude oil stocks are now 0.9 million bbls, or 0.27%, lower than a year ago. Residual stocks are 1.5 mln bbls (4.18%) higher than a year ago, jet fuel stocks are 3.9 mln bbls, (10.13%) higher than a year ago. Utilization is 3.90% lower than a year ago and 7.87% below the eight-year average. It is 10.37% lower than the four-year, pre-Katrina average and 5.37% below the average of the four years since the big hurricanes (Katrina & Rita) in 2005.
This Week’s Demand: Four-week, total refined products demand came in at 19.192 million bpd, down 0.234 mln bbls on the week, and down 0.180 mln bpd and 0.94% against a year ago. Thirteen weeks ago, it was 0.900 mln bpd and 5.03% higher than a year ago. Four-week gasoline demand is at 8.900 mln bpd, up 0.36%, compared to up 6.23% 13 weeks ago. Four-week distillate demand is now at 3.701 mln bpd, down 4.02%, compared to down 0.98% one week ago. Four-week jet demand is now at 1.430 mln bpd, up 3.17%, compared to up 8.17% one week ago. Four-week residual fuel demand is at 0.472 mln bpd, down 36.22%, compared to down 1.19% eight weeks ago. Propane use is up 13.31%, at 1.549 mln bpd, compared to being up 17.63% six weeks ago. Most figures were lower this week than last.
This Week’s API Report: This week’s API report showed a build of 1.206 mln bbls in crude oil stocks, a build of 3.595 mln bbls in distillate stocks and a build of 6.824 mln bbls in gasoline inventories. Utilization was up 0.3% to 79.8%. Implied demand came in at 8.097 mln bpd in gasoline and at 3.546 mln bpd in distillate. Crude oil imports were up 0.995 mln bpd to 9.729 mln bpd. This was an unexpectedly bearish report, especially with the huge builds in products.
DOE Weekly Inventory Statistics
| Category | Final DOE Estimate
This Week’s Estimate | History
Last Year’s Report | Most Recent Changes
This Week’s DOE Report | Versus A Year Ago
Millions of Barrels |
| Distillate | dn 2.35 to 2.85 mln bbls | up 6.346 | up 1.353 mln bbls | up 15.000 |
| Gasoline | dn 0.25 to 0.75 | up 2.068 | up 3.791 | up 9.000 |
| Crude oil | up 2.00 to 3.00 | up 1.144 | up 3.699 | dn 0.900 |
| Utilization | up 0.5% to 1.0% | up 0.6% at 85.2% | up 1.40% at 81.30% | |
| Crude Imports | up 0.500 to 1.000 mmbd | dn 0.756 to 9.729 | up 0.540 to 8.895 mln bpd | |
| DOE Distillate Demand | 3.614 mln bpd | up 068,000 | Gasoline Demand | 8.740 mln bpd | dn 001,000 |
| DOE Distillate Production | 3.855 mln bpd | up 046,000 | Gasoline Production | 8.511 mln bpd | dn 560,000 |
| DOE Distillate Imports | 0.537 mln bpd | up 248,000 | Gasoline Imports | 0.892 mln bpd | up 108,000 |
Source: US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration
Open Interest Analysis
Crude oil open interest rose by another 6,643 contracts on Tuesday, when prices were lower, giving us a net gain of 107,802 contracts so far this new year. Prices were lower on Tuesday, suggesting new selling, but that may be revised later.
Heating oil open interest grew by 3,257 contracts on Tuesday, when prices were lower. That looks like new selling and would be bearish. Open interest is up 25,616 contracts so far this year.
RBOB open interest rose by 2,568 contracts on Tuesday when prices were lower. That looks like new selling and would be bearish. So far, in 2010, 30,925 new contracts have been added.
Natural gas open interest rose by 7,719 on Tuesday, when prices were higher. Open interest is up 54,602 contracts so far this new year.
Tuesday’s Open Interest Changes:
Crude 1,300,867 up 6,643 Heat 332,408 up 3,257 RBOB 265,579 up 2,568 Nat gas 760,159 up 7,719
CFTC Commitments of Traders for Nymex (for the period ended Tuesday, Jan. 5th)
Crude oil prices gained $2.90/bbl over the latest reporting period, and the best buying came from producers, who added 5,721 new longs and covered 3,655 shorts. The other categories were net sellers, with swap dealers liquidating 166 longs and adding 5,828 shorts. Managed money liquidated 2,148 longs and added 1,906 shorts. Other reportables liquidated 890 longs and added 2,375 new shorts. These changes were unexpected; we expected more buying by funds, which may have come later.
In heating oil futures, prices gained 7.75 cents a gallon, and the best buying came from managed money accounts. They bought 9,302 new longs against only 1,443 new sales. Swap dealers were minor buyers, with 218 new purchases and 266 covered shorts. Producers liquidated 12,559 longs and covered 2,028 shorts, and other reportables liquidated 1,529 longs and added 514 new shorts. Funds were the ones pushing prices higher in heating oil futures.
Gasoline prices were up 9.60 cents a gallon during the period under review. Managed money added 15,583 new longs and only 118 new shorts. Producers liquidated 10,528 longs and added 6,298 new shorts. Swap dealers liquidated 712 longs and added 122 shorts, while other reportables liquidated 227 longs and added 280 new shorts. Funds pushed prices higher, here.
In natural gas, prices dropped 20.3 cents during the period under review. Large speculators sold 9,624 new contracts, with money managers selling 9,656 contracts. Swap dealers were the best buyers, adding 6,945 contracts, with assorted “other reportables” adding 841 contracts. The short position of money managers is a huge mystery, clearly being spread somewhere.
Natural Gas & Utility Generation
Natural gas prices were up another 14.2 cents per million Btu yesterday as traders continued to buy ahead of this morning’s EIA report. Expectations are that we will see a large drawdown from underground storage levels, with Dow Jones’ survey of predictions averaging a drawdown of 256 bcf. Bloomberg’s survey shows much the same, with its average estimate coming in at 254 bcf (drawdown). The big question, today, will be whether the actual figures exceed expectations – especially after two days of buying in anticipation of a large drawdown.
The buying in anticipation of the report (and a large drawdown) is normal, but it sets us up today for a possible reversal, especially if the actual number is relatively close to estimates. With the weather having turned more moderate and expected to follow that template through most of the rest of January, there is a very real possibility – even a real probability – that the buying will be done and over by noon, maybe even by 11 AM. In fact, we would have to say that it will almost certainly take a draw nearing 300 bcf to keep buying orders flowing until the final bell today. Once the figure is seen, it will quickly be behind us and we do not have anything comparable, yet, on the horizon.
Even with a well-established trend towards colder weather, we are getting closer to the end of the “heart” of winter, the period from December 15th through the end of January. Cold temperatures can still pile up heating degree days in February, but the deviation needs to be larger to accomplish what can be done in the “heart” period. We had four solid cold weeks during this winter’s heart, and we will start to make comparisons (with previous years) against smaller withdrawals.
Last year, there was a drawdown of 94 bcf. The five-year average drawdown was near 80 bcf. If we see a draw near expectations, it will take a huge chunk out of the historical comparisons, and that could allow storage levels to reach much more supportive levels by the end of March. The funny thing about today’s report is that it could trigger selling in the afternoon, even if it is bullish, but it could then come back to be a bullish factor for weeks.
In cash trading yesterday, Henry Hub prices were at $5.53-$5.68, down $0.04 and up $0.04 on the day (DJN). SoCal prices were at $5.63-$5.79, up $0.09-$0.11 on the day. El Paso Permian prices were up $0.03-$0.11 at $5.41-$5.55. Katy prices were up $0.01-$0.09 to $5.44-$5.61. Waha prices were down $0.00-$0.01 at $5.42-$5.54. Transco 6 was down $0.25-$0.33 at $6.27-$6.60/mmBtu, according to Dow Jones News (DJN). Cash prices stabilized yesterday after a few sessions during which they fell sharply. A record 89,483 gigawatt-hours were used in the US in the week ended January 9th.
Palo Verde prices were last quoted at $45.30-$47.50/mwh. Northeastern prices last traded at $42.00-$56.25. Entergy was last at $33.50-$34.50. Ercot was last at $41.00-$41.75/mwh.
Support is at $5.42-$5.45, $5.35-$5.38, $5.31-$5.33, $5.19-$5.21, $5.12-$5.14, $4.96-$4.99, $4.83-$4.85, $4.64-$4.66, $4.40-$4.43, $4.15-$4.17, $4.05-$4.08, $3.73-$3.75, $3.66-$3.68, $3.50-$3.53, $3.44-$3.46, $3.28-$3.32, $2.91-$2.93, $2.80-$2.82, $2.74-$2.75, $2.69-$2.70, $2.62-$2.64, and $240-$2.43. Resistance is at $5.77-$5.79, $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03, $6.09-$6.11, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37, $6.65-$6.69, $6.90-$6.94, $7.01-$7.04, $7.28-$7.31, and $7.34-$7.36.
Jan Natural Gas: Support: $5.42-$5.45, $5.35-$5.38, $5.31-$5.33, $5.19-$5.21, $5.12-$5.14, $4.96-$4.99..
Resistance: $5.77-$5.79, $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03, $6.09-$6.11, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37.
Natural gas prices found support at their trendline on Tuesday and advanced again yesterday..
Dollars per million Btu
Natural gas prices are still in a longer-term uptrend. They seem to have found support at the trendline below.
Dollars per million Btu
EIA Weekly Storage Figures
Last week’s EIA report showed a draw of 153 bcf on expectations for a draw of 151 bcf. Stocks are now 286 bcf higher than a year ago, against a surplus of 379 bcf a week ago, a surplus of 359 bcf two weeks ago and a surplus of 381 bcf three weeks ago. Stocks are now 10.08% higher than a year ago. They are 316 bcf and 11.25% above the five-year average.
For this week, the eight-year average (of similar Friday reports) was a draw of 103.0 bcf. The five-year average was a draw of 79.6 bcf. Last year’s draw was 94 bcf. Estimates suggest a draw of 254-256 bcf this week.
EIA Report
| Region | 01-01-10 | 12-25-09 | Change | Last Year | 5 Yr Avg |
| Cons East | 1686 | 1779 | dn 93 | 1547 | 1574 |
| Cons West | 434 | 453 | dn 19 | 390 | 378 |
| Producing | 1003 | 1044 | dn 41 | 900 | 856 |
| Total US | 3123 | 3276 | dn 153 | 2837 | 2807 |
Bcf, or Billions of cubic feet. Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy
News & Views
| In trading on Nymex, February crude oil prices were up $0.04 at $79.69/barrel at 9.30 AM EST, this morning. February heating oil prices were down 1.08 cents to 2.0838/gallon. February RBOB prices were up 0.15 cents to $2.0617. February natural gas prices were up $0.031 to $5.764/mmBtu. Prices were mixed this morning, as traders carefully measured the reasons for continuing decline against those suggesting that prices could be ready to turn up, again. Investors were reportedly returning cautiously to Asian stock markets, buoyed by a lack of upward change in China’s benchmark bills this morning. This suggested that the higher reserve requirements imposed earlier this week on banks may be as far as the government is planning to go, at least immediately. 
Crude oil prices continued working lower yesterday, although they rallied from the day’s lows to finish in the middle of the day’s range. Prices do remain above major support levels. | 
Heating oil prices were lower yesterday, and they found support at the trendline that had initially announced their intention to shoot higher at the end of December. Aided perhaps by its proximity to China, Australia’s economy produced 35,200 new jobs in December, making it a fourth consecutive month of gains – “surprisingly strong gains,” according to Dow Jones. Australia seems to have turned the corner, with its unemployment peaking a few months ago below 6%. The CFTC proposed hard limits on the numbers of futures contracts that individual investors can hold. The new proposal also seeks to limit the number of exemptions that may be sought against these limits. While this is an important step in bringing back the central function of commodities markets, it is possible that the limits will be set on the high side. Observers are also eager to see how easily swap dealers may be able to obtain exemptions. The proposal also seeks to put the CFTC in an oversight position over OTC markets, which can be used to circumvent the spirit of these hard limits. |
| Crude oil prices still have support below the market. | |
After falling all week, oil prices are back into important support areas that could turn prices back up. That makes today’s activity important in terms of this market’s next direction.
An Illustrated Look at Energy Market Factors
A Look at the US Dollar Versus the Euro
Dollar-Euro (dollar in euro cents): Three-Month Bar-Chart 
The US dollar was slightly lower yesterday and in trading after hours, into late last night. Prices look to be on the weaker side right now, and we may see a break below support at some point over the next few days. That would be bullish for oil.
Source: http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forexqkchart&curcode1=USD&curcode2=EUR
A Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (djia)
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Six-Month Chart
The DJIA made rallied 53.5 points yesterday, and equities could be on the brink of making another attempt at new highs before the week is over. Higher equities have typically been seen as being bullish for oil prices.
Source: http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=djia&sid=1643&time=6mo&Submit1=Refresh
Recommendations for Specific Market Segments
Heating Oil Distributors Heating oil prices have now returned to the trendline that they broke (to the upside) at the end of last year’s trading. This could turn out to be an important area of support, or it could be ignored on the way to lower levels. On a fundamental level, the daily forecasts are currently more important than anything else. This week’s DOE report was almost embarrassing. Four-week distillate demand actually declined from last week’s reported levels, which is a feat that is next to incomprehensible, given last week’s temperature readings. We are not sure how that even could happen (we had a drop of 45,000 bpd in the four-week average) during one of the coldest weeks on record. It did, though. We know that oil was being burned, partly because we were burning it ourselves. At some point, product will need to be replaced throughout the system, and that should give us reasonable draws from primary storage. We would continue to hold or even add to capped-price protection, expecting to see that in future weeks. Diesel Users We would hold and add to capped-price protection here today. NYH Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…209.70-209.80 plus 0.250 USG Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…215.75-206.15 minus 3.550 Jet/Kerosene Users & Airlines New York Harbor cash market differentials were 3.75 to 4.25 cents over January heating oil in NY Harbor and 0.25 to 0.75 under the screen in the US Gulf. We like locking in differentials. Diesel & Gasoline Marketers We would keep product hedged, because we just can’t tell where prices might next go. We do expect a rally. Gasoline Blenders & End-Users This market has returned to the trendline that it broke to the upside at the end of 2009. It should offer some support. Prompt NYH Fuel Ethanol…..204.00-206.00 Prompt USG Fuel Ethanol….195.00-197.00 Quotes from 01-06-10 Heating Oil End-Users We would hold caps and would add to them here. Do not use anything other than caps or maybe calls. Futures are treacherous. Speculators We would hold onto long call positions, here. Refiners The 7:5+2 crack spread was $7.29 yesterday. Crude Oil Producers Crude oil prices have continued to pull back, as the support of bitterly cold temperatures has been withdrawn. The next move up, or any period of stabilization from here will be important. | Prompt Jet Fuel Prices New York Harbor 213.25-213.75 US Gulf 209.75-210.25 Midwest (Group Three) 209.45-210.45 Midwest (Chicago) 203.45-204.45 Los Angeles 208.00-209.00 San Francisco 208.00-209.00 Portland, Oregon 208.00-209.00 Cents per gallon Propane Prices Mont Belvieu……….…..non-TET………$1.423660 Cents per gallon  Gasoline prices dropped back to the trendline they broke above back at the end of 2009. This could offer support and send prices back up, again. We would like to see in this decline the beginning of a bigger move lower, but it is early for that and the bulls are still better organized than the bears.
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