Prices for January 19th, 2010

HEATING OIL    cents per gallon

MONTH

HIGH

LOW

SETTLE

CHANGE

FEB

205.50

199.88

204.54

dn 00.06

MAR

206.65

201.12

205.90

up 00.11

APR

207.35

201.93

206.76

up 00.32

MAY

207.98

202.97

207.73

up 00.48

JUN

209.21

204.00

208.92

up 00.64

JUL

210.95

207.00

210.80

up 00.74

AUG

211.85

209.25

212.80

up 00.79

SEP

214.65

211.70

215.10

up 00.81

OCT

216.10

214.00

217.73

up 00.84

NOV

217.45

216.96

220.38

up 00.88

DEC

223.12

218.44

223.03

up 00.93

JAN

223.45

221.00

225.55

up 00.95

Estimated Volume (day before) total all prev day 98,744 

NYMEX CRUDE OIL   dollars per barrel

MONTH

HIGH

LOW

SETTLE

CHANGE

FEB

79.15

76.76

79.02

up 01.02

MAR

79.47

77.06

79.32

up 00.95

APR

79.92

77.57

79.81

up 00.84

MAY

80.43

78.19

80.40

up 00.76

JUN

81.06

78.79

80.97

up 00.69

JUL

81.53

79.30

81.53

up 00.67

 

 

 

 

 

Estimated Volume… 534,322   Opec Basket…$75.79  dn $0.78
Prompt #2 Oil NYH 88..-1.75 to -1.25, 74 Lo S…-0.50 to -0.00
US Gulf 88 grade…-4.75 to -4.25, 74 grade Lo S…-4.50 to -3.75 Group
.........-5.75 to -5.25  Lo S.....-5.75 to -5.25
Chicago
......-12.50 to -11.50

                                                     cash quotes by Dow Jones

 

NYMEX RBOB GASOLINE       cents per gallon

MONTH

HIGH

LOW

SETTLE

CHANGE

FEB

206.88

200.98

205.91

up 01.37

MAR

208.21

202.37

207.35

up 01.45

APR

217.69

212.50

217.12

up 01.27

MAY

218.44

213.70

218.12

up 01.21

JUN

218.89

213.76

218.68

up 01.13

JUL

218.60

215.15

218.62

up 01.14

AUG

217.05

214.70

218.16

up.01.14

SEP

216.35

213.90

217.36

up 01.22

Estimated RB Volume day before 87,519

 

NYMEX NATURAL GAS   dollars per mmBtu

MONTH

HIGH

LOW

SETTLE

CHANGE

FEB

5.687

5.444

5.557

dn 0.134

MAR

5.661

5.431

5.536

dn 0.135

APR

5.618

5.408

5.499

dn 0.137

MAY

5.658

5.460

5.546

dn 0.141

Estimated Volume…day before   (229,136)
Nymex statistics are based on composite Access & Day Sessions
Prompt Gasoline NYH M5 +0.00 /+0.50 RBOB  +7.25 /+7.50
US Gulf M4:  -3.00 to -2.75  RBOB +3.00 to +3.50
L.A. Conv Reg 201.00-202.00, N-grade Group  199.40-199.65 Chi  198.25-198.40

Market Review for Tuesday                   

 

A

S we had feared would be the problem sooner or later, investors decided yesterday that risk was back on the menu, and they were buying commodities and equities again.  Confusing things somewhat, though, was a strong advance in the US dollar against the euro.  Nonetheless, the DJIA came very near to 15-month highs, and was up 102 points yesterday afternoon as the Nymex oil markets closed their open outcry session. 

The dollar’s strength had worked with forecasts for moderate temperatures - through the end of the month - to push prices to their lowest levels in a while at yesterday’s lows.  Short-covering emerged to push prices higher, as traders covered short holdings in the expiring February crude oil futures contract, which expires today.  That short-covering was augmented by the buying that we described above, as traders saw in higher equities more signs of hope that the US economy will start to recover, soon.  Most of the data out last week was on the disappointing side.

Fuel for Thought

  Gasoline enjoyed its strongest demand in nearly a month, according to MasterCard SpendingPulse, which pegged it at 9.41 million bpd for the week ended January 15th.  That put demand up 3.2% on the week and up 2.3% on the year.  Four-week average demand to January 15th came in at 9.180 million bpd, up 1.2% against the same period a year ago.

    The API reported yesterday that deliveries of oil products in December were up 0.6% against December, 2008, to 19.3 million bpd.  For 2009, total consumption came in at 18.72 million bpd, down 4% from 2008.  For the fourth quarter, alone, demand was down 1.8% to 19.0 million bpd.  The API noted that December was better than the quarter, which was better than the year.

This week’s DOE supply and demand figures will be watched closely by traders when they are released on Thursday.  At this stage, the most bullish expectation is that refinery utilization will fall by roughly half a percentage point.  As we have noted here before, though, recently, this is the first time in decades that refineries have the spare capacity to rotate units in and out of maintenance. 

Traders were also trying to read the tealeaves with Opec, after the cartel noted that it still has to be aware of seasonal ups and downs in demand.  The second quarter is typically the lowest demand period of any year, and Opec ministers have frequently cut output heading into that quarter.  At this stage, though, Opec output is well above its targets, and it would be a surprise if ministers decided to cut output levels or targets.  As a result, most observers saw yesterday’s comments as a probable defense of existing quotas when Opec ministers meet on March 17th.  In December, Opec output increased from 26.613 million bpd to 26.681 million bpd, up 68,000 bpd.  In the process, Opec compliance slipped to its lowest percentage – 56% - in more than a year.

Technicals

          

The oil complex was mostly higher yesterday, after having all come in lower early on.  Part of the buying seems to have come from short-covering in the expiring February crude oil contract, which goes off the board this afternoon.  Trendlines, broken over at the end of December, are offering support here, as prices are dropping.

Cents per gallon

Above:  Gasoline went to a premium (of 1.37 cents a gallon) over heating oil yesterday, its biggest January premium since 2006.

March crude oil now has buy-stops over $79.31-$79.47, $80.67, $82.35, $83.95, $84.83, $85.13, $89.82, $90.99, $93.02, $96.03, $100.37, $102.85, $106.91, $108.11, $108.70, $109.60, and $110.45-$110.60.  Sell-stops are under $77.00, $76.00, $74.25, $72.70, $71.99, $71.20, $70.55, $69.30, $68.55, $68.00, $65.80-$66.20, and $64.95.  February heating oil has buy-stops over 205.50, 208.10, 210.91, 211.90, 217.55, 222.72, 225.80, 227.05, 229.08, 238.95, 249.62, 251.50, 256.48, 265.89, 273.20, 288.50, 295.00, 299.71, and 303.00. Sell stops are under 199.80, 195.00, 191.00, 190.00, 189.55, 188.70, 187.00, 186.50, 182.63, 177.00, 176.68, 173.75, 171.10, 170.35, and 168.60.  February RBOB has buy-stops over 206.88-207.35, 208.30, 214.60, 219.27, 222.70, 228.86, 240.10, 250.40, 252.00, 265.10, 267.85, 270.85, 272.00, and 280.25.  Sell-stops are under 200.95, 198.60, 194.55, 189.65, 185.00-185.15, 184.60, 182.40, 181.20, 179.20, 177.30, 175.14, 171.40, and 170.25. 

 

Football: The bears lost 10 yards on first down yesterday, making it a more difficult second and 20 yards to go.

 

Technical Support & Resistance

Mar crude oil                       Support:             $77.00-$77.10, $76.00-$76.20, $74.25-$74.40, $72.70-$72.85, $71.95-$72.05.

                                           Resistance:        $79.31-$79.47, $80.55-$80.67, $82.25-$82.35, $83.85-$83.95, $84.70-$84.85.

Feb heating oil      Support:             203.65-203.85, 199.80-200.00, 195.00-195.20, 191.00-191.20, 190.00-190.15.

                             Resistance:        205.40-205.50, 207.95-208.10, 210.80-210.91, 211.75-211.90, 217.45-217.55.

Feb Rbob                      Support:             203.45-203.60, 202.10-202.25, 200.95-201.10, 198.60-198.75, 194.55-194.70.

                                           Resistance:        207.25-207.35, 208.10-208.30, 214.45-214.60, 219.10-219.30, 222.60-222.70.

Oil Inventory Reports

   

  This week’s DOE report has historically shown builds in crude oil and gasoline stocks, while also showing declines in refinery utilization rates.  Refinery capacity being utilized has fallen this week in each of the last eight years.  Gasoline stocks have increased in seven of the eight years, distillate stocks have fallen in five of the last eight years and crude oil stocks have increased in seven of the last eight years.  Crude oil imports have been higher in three years and lower in three years, but the declines have been bigger than the increases. 

Last Week’s Inventory Comparison:  Distillate stocks are now 15.0 million bbls, or 10.32%, higher than a year ago.  Heating oil inventories are 1.5 mln bbls, or 3.70%, higher than they were a year ago.  Gasoline stocks are 9.0 mln bbls (up 4.20%) higher against a year ago.  Crude oil stocks are now 0.9 million bbls, or 0.27%, lower than a year ago.  Residual stocks are 1.5 mln bbls (4.18%) higher than a year ago, jet fuel stocks are 3.9 mln bbls, (10.13%) higher than a year ago.  Utilization is 3.90% lower than a year ago and 7.87% below the eight-year average.  It is 10.37% lower than the four-year, pre-Katrina average and 5.37% below the average of the four years since the big hurricanes (Katrina & Rita) in 2005.

Last Week’s Demand:  Four-week, total refined products demand came in at 19.192 million bpd, down 0.234 mln bbls on the week, and down 0.180 mln bpd and 0.94% against a year ago.  Thirteen weeks ago, it was 0.900 mln bpd and 5.03% higher than a year ago.  Four-week gasoline demand is at 8.900 mln bpd, up 0.36%, compared to up 6.23% 13 weeks ago.  Four-week distillate demand is now at 3.701 mln bpd, down 4.02%, compared to down 0.98% one week ago.  Four-week jet demand is now at 1.430 mln bpd, up 3.17%, compared to up 8.17% one week ago.  Four-week residual fuel demand is at 0.472 mln bpd, down 36.22%, compared to down 1.19% eight weeks ago.   Propane use is up 13.31%, at 1.549 mln bpd, compared to being up 17.63% six weeks ago.  Most figures were lower this week than last.

Last Week’s API Report:  This week’s API report showed a build of 1.206 mln bbls in crude oil stocks, a build of 3.595 mln bbls in distillate stocks and a build of 6.824 mln bbls in gasoline inventories.  Utilization was up 0.3% to 79.8%.  Implied demand came in at 8.097 mln bpd in gasoline and at 3.546 mln bpd in distillate.  Crude oil imports were up 0.995 mln bpd to 9.729 mln bpd.  This was an unexpectedly bearish report, especially with the huge builds in products.

 

                                                                    DOE Weekly Inventory Statistics

Category

Final DOE Estimate
This Week’s Estimate

History
Last Year’s Report

Most Recent Changes
Last Week’s DOE Report

Versus A Year Ago
Millions of Barrels

Distillate

dn 2.25 to 2.75 mln bbls

up 0.790

up 1.353 mln bbls

up 15.000

Gasoline

up 2.00 to 2.50

up 6.475

up 3.791

up   9.000

Crude oil

up 2.00 to 3.00

up 6.100

up 3.699

dn   0.900

Utilization

dn 0.8% to 1.3%

dn 1.9% at 83.3%

up 1.40% at 81.30%

 

Crude Imports

dn 0.000 to 0.250 mmbd

up 0.137 to 9.866

up 0.540 to 8.895 mln bpd

 

 

DOE Distillate Demand

3.614 mln bpd

up 068,000

Gasoline Demand

8.740 mln bpd

dn 001,000

DOE Distillate Production

3.855 mln bpd

up 046,000

Gasoline Production

8.511 mln bpd

dn 560,000

DOE Distillate Imports

0.537 mln bpd

up 248,000

Gasoline Imports

0.892 mln bpd

up 108,000

Source: US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration  

 

Open Interest Analysis

      Crude oil open interest fell by 17,247 contracts on Friday, when prices were lower.  Up through Thursday, 154,337 new contracts had been added so far this new year.  Some are starting to come off as February crude contracts expire.

      Heating oil open interest fell by 5,416 contracts on Friday, when prices were lower.  That looks like long liquidation and would be supportive. 

      RBOB open interest fell by 3,463 contracts on Friday when prices were lower.  That looks like long liquidation and would be supportive.  Through Thursday, 38,753 new contracts had been added.

      Natural gas open interest grew by 7,000 on Friday, when prices were higher.  Open interest is up 72,410 contracts so far this new year.  That looks like fresh buying, on Friday, which would be supportive.

 

Friday’s Open Interest Changes: 

Crude 1,330,155  dn 17,247       Heat 315,789   dn 5,416       RBOB 269,944  dn 3,463       Nat gas 777,967  up 7,000    

 

CFTC Commitments of Traders for Nymex  (for the period ended Tuesday, Jan. 5th)   

 

   Crude oil prices gained $2.90/bbl over the latest reporting period, and the best buying came from producers, who added 5,721 new longs and covered 3,655 shorts.  The other categories were net sellers, with swap dealers liquidating 166 longs and adding 5,828 shorts.  Managed money liquidated 2,148 longs and added 1,906 shorts.  Other reportables liquidated 890 longs and added 2,375 new shorts.  These changes were unexpected; we expected more buying by funds, which may have come later.

    In heating oil futures, prices gained 7.75 cents a gallon, and the best buying came from managed money accounts.  They bought 9,302 new longs against only 1,443 new sales.  Swap dealers were minor buyers, with 218 new purchases and 266 covered shorts.  Producers liquidated 12,559 longs and covered 2,028 shorts, and other reportables liquidated 1,529 longs and added 514 new shorts.  Funds were the ones pushing prices higher in heating oil futures.

    Gasoline prices were up 9.60 cents a gallon during the period under review.  Managed money added 15,583 new longs and only 118 new shorts.  Producers liquidated 10,528 longs and added 6,298 new shorts.  Swap dealers liquidated 712 longs and added 122 shorts, while other reportables liquidated 227 longs and added 280 new shorts.  Funds pushed prices higher, here.

    In natural gas, prices dropped 20.3 cents during the period under review.  Large speculators sold 9,624 new contracts, with money managers selling 9,656 contracts.  Swap dealers were the best buyers, adding 6,945 contracts, with assorted “other reportables” adding 841 contracts.  The short position of money managers is a huge mystery, clearly being spread somewhere.

 

 

Natural Gas & Utility Generation

Nymex

 

Natural gas prices dropped a little more than 13cents per million Btu yesterday, as traders were selling on expectations for more moderate temperature readings ahead.  There was also some light profit-taking on the long side yesterday, as gas traders started to scale back their long exposure on the gradual realization that the weather outlook has changed dramatically and may not get back to where it once was.  Up until last week, it was looking like this could be one of the coldest, longest winters on record; now, it is looking like one that may have seen its best or worst – depending upon one’s perspective – already.  What makes this all the more pressing is that three weeks of different temperature patterns can change the underlying trend in readings.

How this issue plays out over the remainder of this week and into next may determine whether the rest of this winter is unusually cold – or moderate.  And that, in turn, could turn this week’s anticipated EIA underground storage report drawdown into the final gasp of the part of this winter that was cold or into a rallying point for the rest of the winter, after an interlude of moderate readings.  It could be the anchor on which the rest of the season is built or the final act from the bitterly cold part.

At this stage, the latest National Weather Service (NWS) forecast is calling for above-normal readings in the Midwest, the Northeast and mid-Atlantic regions.  Those were the areas hardest hit by the cold that was seen at the end of 2009 and into the first week of 2010.  This week’s EIA underground storage report, which should reflect the last of the very cold weather, will have a very hard time building on the last report.  Even though early estimates point to a draw of as much as 200 bcf, there have been large builds reported for this week in the recent past – making it more difficult to eat into surpluses.

Conclusions

Even if we get a large drawdown in this week’s EIA underground storage report, it is unlikely to give us the huge changes in surpluses against a year ago or against the five-year average.  And, without new forecasts calling for cold temperatures, it is going to be difficult to break and sustain moves above $6.00 near term.

Cash

In cash trading yesterday, Henry Hub prices were at $5.47-$5.56, down $0.13-$0.18 on the day (DJN).  SoCal prices were at $5.57-$5.66, down $0.09-$0.09 on the day.  El Paso Permian prices were down $0.08-$0.10 at $5.35-$5.45.  Katy prices were down $0.10-$0.21 to $5.36-$5.55.  Waha prices were down $0.10-$0.16 at $5.34-$5.46.  Transco 6 was down $0.15-$0.17 at $6.03-$6.13/mmBtu, according to Dow Jones News (DJN).  Cash prices continued moving lower yesterday, as forecasts remained on the moderate side.   

Electricity

Palo Verde prices were last quoted at $49.00-$49.50/mwh.  Northeastern prices last traded at $46.50-$60.00.  Entergy was last at $39.50-$40.50.  Ercot was last at $43.75-$43.80/mwh. 

 

Support is at $5.42-$5.45, $5.35-$5.38, $5.31-$5.33, $5.19-$5.21, $5.12-$5.14, $4.96-$4.99, $4.83-$4.85, $4.64-$4.66, $4.40-$4.43, $4.15-$4.17, $4.05-$4.08, $3.73-$3.75, $3.66-$3.68, $3.50-$3.53, $3.44-$3.46, $3.28-$3.32, $2.91-$2.93, $2.80-$2.82, $2.74-$2.75, $2.69-$2.70, $2.62-$2.64, and $240-$2.43.  Resistance is at $5.68-$5.70, $5.78-$5.81, $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03, $6.09-$6.11, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37, $6.65-$6.69, $6.90-$6.94, $7.01-$7.04, $7.28-$7.31, and $7.34-$7.36. 

 

Jan Natural Gas:                                Support:     $5.42-$5.45, $5.35-$5.38, $5.31-$5.33, $5.19-$5.21, $5.12-$5.14, $4.96-$4.99.

                                                    Resistance:     $5.68-$5.70, $5.78-$5.81, $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03, $6.09-$6.11, $6.15-$6.17.

 

Charts

Natural gas prices dropped 13.4 cents yesterday and they tested the major trendline support.

Dollars per million Btu

Natural gas prices are in a range between $5.35 and $6.11 for now.  The lower range could be expanded.

 

Dollars per million Btu

 

EIA Weekly Storage Figures

Last week’s EIA report showed a draw of 266 bcf on expectations for a draw of 254-256 bcf.  Stocks are now 103 bcf higher than a year ago, against a surplus of 286 bcf a week ago, a surplus of 379 bcf two weeks ago and a surplus of 359 bcf three weeks ago.  Stocks are now 3.75% higher than a year ago.  They are 121 bcf and 4.43% above the five-year average.

For this week, the eight-year average (of similar Friday reports) was a draw of 163.87 bcf.  The five-year average was a draw of 164.2 bcf.  Last year’s draw was 176 bcf. 

 

EIA Report

Region

01-08-10

01-01-09

Change

Last Year

5 Yr Avg

Cons East

1532

1678

dn 146

1478

1526

Cons West

414

434

dn 20

372

361

Producing

906

1006

dn 100

899

844

Total US

2852

3118

dn 266

2749

2731

Bcf, or Billions of cubic feet.  Source:  Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy

 

News & Views

Globex

In trading on Nymex, February crude oil prices were down $1.42 at $77.60/barrel at 7.30 AM EST, this morning.  February heating oil prices were down 2.73 cents to 2.0181/gallon.  February RBOB prices were down 1.91 cents to $2.0400.  February natural gas prices were down $0.035 to $5.522/mmBtu.  Traders were reacting to a stronger US dollar this morning, and were selling equities in Asia on fears of further Chinese central tightening. 

 

DOE Expectations

The table below lists the first survey results for Dow Jones, Bloomberg and Reuters.  The DOE report will be released at 10:30 AM EDT on Thursday morning this week.

 

Category    Dow Jones    Bloomberg     Reuters

Crude           up 1.900        up 2.500          xx x.x00 mln bbls

Distillate      dn 0.000        dn 0.000          xx x.x00

Gasoline      up 1.100        up 2.000          xx x.x00

Utilization   dn 0.5%         dn 0.5%           xx 0.x%

 

Crude oil prices continued to sell off in yesterday’s early trading, but they did find support at the trendline (broken to the upside in December) and they rallied from there.

Heating oil prices started out lower yesterday, but they did manage to finish with gains, giving us a common reversal higher for the day.  This is the bulls’ chance to get back in the game.

 

DOE History:  Distillate stocks have fallen in five of the last eight years, by an average of 2.480 mln bbls.  The eight-year average is a draw of 1.139 mln bbls.  Gasoline stocks rose in seven of the last eight years, for a seven-year build of 2.925 mln bbls and an eight-year average build of 2.272 mln bbls.   Crude oil stocks have been higher in seven of the last eight years for a seven-year average build of 2.612 mln bbls and it has an eight-year average build of 2.000 mln bbls.  Utilization has been lower in all of the last eight years and has an eight-year average decrease of 1.20%, and it has an eight-year average utilization figure of 87.98%.  The four-year, pre-hurricane utilization average was 90.1%.  Since Katrina, refineries have run at an average utilization rate of 85.85%.  Crude oil imports have been higher in three of the last six years, and the average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been down 168,000 bpd.  The average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been 9.891 million bpd.  Imports have been trending well below those numbers recently.

Crude oil prices are unexpectedly weak here this morning.

 

 

Oil prices are quite a bit lower here this morning, and a failure to rally back into positive territory from here could suggest a more pervasive weakness, in the economy and in oil supply and demand, than originally believed.

 

 

An Illustrated Look at Energy Market Factors

A Look at the US Dollar Versus the Euro

 

Dollar-Euro (dollar in euro cents):  Three-Month Bar-Chart US Dollar vs Euro Intraday Forex Chart The US dollar advanced to new recent highs against the euro yesterday, but it lost ground against other currencies.  Yesterday’s break to a new recent high suggests that the dollar has more room on the upside against the euro.  If yesterday’s breakout to the upside is verified, we could have another leg higher.

 

Source:  http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forexqkchart&curcode1=USD&curcode2=EUR

 

A Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (djia)

 

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Six-Month Chart

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The DJIA was up nearly 1216 points yesterday, as investors returned to buy equities and other riskier assets.  At this stage, traders seem to be banking again on a resumption of the economic recovery that seemed like it was stalling last week.

 

Source:  http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=djia&sid=1643&time=6mo&Submit1=RefreshA Look at Jet Fuel Prices

 

 

 

 

 

Recommendations for Specific Market Segments

Heating Oil Distributors

      Heating oil prices were mixed yesterday, even as crude oil and gasoline prices rallied.  Moderating temperatures were seen – and are seen today – as reasons for heating oil prices to remain under selling pressure.  But, the weather is not the only factor playing on traders’ minds here this morning.

        A strengthening dollar and concerns that China’s central authorities may make moves to tighten credit further were factors here in the early trading this morning.  If the early losses seen this morning can sustain themselves throughout today’s session, we are going to have to start reading a little more into all of this.

       Last year’s “default mode” was that the economy was in recovery and oil demand was usually assumed to be likely to improve, at some point.  If that baseline has moved, and the recovery needs to start again from a lower level, then oil prices could drop quite a bit more. 

        We would hold our caps, but are not adding to them here.

Diesel Users

We would hold capped-price protection here.

  NYH Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…204.30-204.55 minus 0.125

USG Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…201.30-201.30 minus 3.375

Jet/Kerosene Users & Airlines

New York Harbor cash market differentials were 4.25 to 4.50 cents over January heating oil in NY Harbor and 0.75 under to 0.25 under the screen in the US Gulf.  We still like locking in differentials.

 

Diesel & Gasoline Marketers

We would keep product hedged, because we just can’t tell where prices might next go.  We had a rally yesterday.

 

Gasoline Blenders & End-Users

This week is likely to be critical in determining if prices are going higher or lower next. 

Prompt NYH Fuel Ethanol…..190.00-193.00

Prompt USG Fuel Ethanol….179.00-181.00

Quotes from 01-19-10

Heating Oil End-Users

We would hold caps.  If prices build on the early weakness seen here this morning, then we may need to rethink how strong prices really are. 

Speculators

We would hold onto long call positions, but would not add now.

   

Refiners

The 7:5+2 crack spread was $7.30 yesterday.

Crude Oil Producers

If prices continue in the vein seen early this morning, it will be a clear defeat for the bulls, and it could be a sign that there are deeper problems with the economic recovery. 

Prompt Jet Fuel Prices

New York Harbor  208.80-209.05

US Gulf  203.80-204.30

Midwest (Group Three) 205.05-206.55

Midwest (Chicago)  198.05-198.30

Los Angeles  206.00-207.00

San Francisco  206.00-207.00

Portland, Oregon  206.00-207.00

Cents per gallon

 

Propane Prices

Mont Belvieu……….…..non-TET………$1.230380

 

Cents per gallon

  Gasoline prices were slightly lower yesterday, but they found support above the trendline drawn from last year’s highs.  Originally, that trendline had offered resistance as prices were moving higher.  At this stage, it seems to be offering support as prices decline. 

   Demand generally hits its seasonal low point in January, but SpendingPulse showed some decent demand figures last night.   

 

Cameron Hanover announces the launch of its new website: www.cameronhanover.com.   Daily Energy Hedger subscribers will be able to read current and past reports right on our site or on their PDAs. Reports will continue to be emailed.  As part of the collaborative effort with FMX Connect.com we will also be offering: Price charts, Heating Oil Options Data, Volatilities, Intraday cash markets and refinery margins, Weather alerts, and trader commentary.  Email us if you would like a username and password.  There is no charge for the Daily Hedger for existing clients, and FMX Connect will be offering special reduced price packages to our clients for add-ons.