Prices for January 22nd, 2010
| HEATING OIL cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | FEB | 199.60 | 193.19 | 194.16 | dn 04.40 | | MAR | 200.65 | 194.33 | 195.30 | dn 04.45 | | APR | 201.23 | 195.19 | 195.96 | dn 04.44 | | MAY | 201.82 | 195.90 | 196.75 | dn 04.55 | | JUN | 202.60 | 197.00 | 197.80 | dn 04.58 | | JUL | 203.48 | 199.75 | 199.70 | dn 04.50 | | AUG | 205.00 | 202.60 | 201.80 | dn 04.38 | | SEP | 206.40 | 205.00 | 204.15 | dn 04.33 | | OCT | 209.07 | 206.40 | 206.77 | dn 04.30 | | NOV | 211.95 | 210.20 | 209.42 | dn 04.28 | | DEC | 215.75 | 211.85 | 212.07 | dn 04.26 | | JAN | 216.30 | 215.00 | 214.65 | dn 04.20 | | Estimated Volume (day before) total all prev day 115,937 | | NYMEX CRUDE OIL dollars per barrel | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | MAR | 76.50 | 74.01 | 74.54 | dn 01.54 | | APR | 76.95 | 74.37 | 74.92 | dn 01.61 | | MAY | 77.55 | 74.96 | 75.46 | dn 01.67 | | JUN | 78.12 | 75.49 | 76.05 | dn 01.69 | | JUL | 78.54 | 76.09 | 76.63 | dn 01.70 | | AUG | 79.20 | 77.08 | 77.17 | dn 01.69 | | | | | | | | | Estimated Volume… 508,361 Opec Basket…$74.54 dn $0.76
Prompt #2 Oil NYH 88..-1.00 to -0.50, 74 Lo S…-0.25 to +0.25
US Gulf 88 grade…-4.50 to -4.25, 74 grade Lo S…-4.25 to -3.75 Group .........-5.50 to -4.50 Lo S.....-5.00 to -4.50
Chicago ......-12.50 to -11.50 cash quotes by Dow Jones | | | |
| NYMEX RBOB GASOLINE cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | FEB | 200.04 | 195.55 | 196.57 | dn 01.72 | | MAR | 201.11 | 196.38 | 197.34 | dn 02.10 | | APR | 210.61 | 205.50 | 206.47 | dn 02.54 | | MAY | 211.09 | 206.75 | 207.26 | dn 02.82 | | JUN | 211.71 | 207.05 | 207.58 | dn 03.14 | | JUL | 211.55 | 206.90 | 207.31 | dn 03.39 | | AUG | 208.12 | 207.00 | 206.71 | dn.03.51 | | SEP | 207.57 | 205.79 | 205.96 | dn 03.58 | | Estimated RB Volume day before 169,426 | | NYMEX NATURAL GAS dollars per mmBtu | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | FEB | 5.869 | 5.650 | 5.819 | up 0.204 | | MAR | 5.804 | 5.594 | 5.750 | up 0.182 | | APR | 5.738 | 5.551 | 5.688 | up 0.159 | | MAY | 5.767 | 5.657 | 5.718 | up 0.143 | | | Estimated Volume…day before (246,814)
Nymex statistics are based on composite Access & Day Sessions
Prompt Gasoline NYH M5 -1.00 /-0.75 RBOB +5.00 /+5.50
US Gulf M4: -3.75 to -3.50 RBOB +2.75 to +3.00
L.A. Conv Reg 201.00-202.00, N-grade Group 190.05-190.30 Chi 190.05-191.05 | |
Market Review for Friday & over the Weekend
IL prices were lower, again, on Friday. It was the third day lower in a row, and markets seem to be telling us that the economy is in the middle of a dreaded double dip. The strongest economic indicator since March, the stock market, dropped by more than 200 points (216.90) for a second consecutive day, on Friday. This loss of more than 400 points over the last two days of last week’s trading look to us very much like the proverbial “other shoe dropping.”
The sudden dramatic turn lower in oil demand, the disappointing economic numbers and, now, this sharp drop in equities prices, leave us worrying about the economic recovery. China has effectively decided that it will not be the world’s economic locomotive of growth and recovery, here. And the US is caught between worrying over the present and the future. We may be getting too close, already, to elections next fall to be able to address the country’s economic needs in any bipartisan way, at this stage. Europe is worried about problems in Greece right now. The picture is changing quickly, not for the better.
| Fuel for Thought Capital Economics wrote on Friday: “Our calculations suggest that fourth-quarter GDP increased at an impressive annualized rate of 5.6%. With the consensus forecast as low as 4.5%, we expect the equity markets to react favorably to the release of the initial estimate this Friday. Unfortunately, our calculations also imply that most of the growth was due to a big shift in the inventory cycle. In all likelihood, the growth rate of final sales to domestic purchasers actually slowed in the fourth quarter. We still believe that once the boosts from the inventory cycle and the fiscal stimulus fade, GDP growth will slow sharply in the second half of this year.” Our biggest concern is that the stock market does not look all that good as of Friday. |
As we get ready to start the last week of January, a good deal has changed over the course of just this month. We would pay especially close attention to any fresh economic statistics released this week, and we will be watching oil demand figures closely over the next few reports. There were signs of systemic weakness in last week’s distillate demand numbers; even with cold weather giving us stronger heating oil consumption, industrial diesel demand was anemic.
It is still way too early to tell what effect there could be as a result of President Obama’s rather surprising call for investment banks to get out of the proprietary trading business. Few expect these businesses would just be shut, and most see their sale as a last stand that might not be needed. Either way, these businesses would be likely to keep on trading, potentially just under different names.
We see this as a critical week for statistics. Whether these are economic statistics from the departments of Labor or Commerce, or oil statistics from Energy, traders will be looking at them more closely than ever for direction.
Technicals
The oil complex dropped steeply again on Friday, and the trendlines broken over at the end of December have now ceased to offer support. It now seems like this market has lost a major source of underlying support. It also looks like it is going to take time for the picture to turn back up, again. The major trend higher is now in doubt.
Cents per gallon
Above: Gasoline prices finished at a premium to heating oil prices on Friday. It is another peculiar factor in this market.
March crude oil now has buy-stops over $76.50, $78.36, $79.31-$79.47, $80.67, $82.35, $83.95, $84.83, $85.13, $89.82, $90.99, $93.02, $96.03, $100.37, $102.85, $106.91, $108.11, $108.70, $109.60, and $110.45-$110.60. Sell-stops are under $74.00, $72.70, $71.99, $71.20, $70.55, $69.30, $68.55, $68.00, $65.80-$66.20, and $64.95. February heating oil has buy-stops over 199.60, 203.51, 204.45, 205.50, 208.10, 210.91, 211.90, 217.55, 222.72, 225.80, 227.05, 229.08, 238.95, 249.62, 251.50, 256.48, 265.89, 273.20, and 288.50. Sell stops are under 193.00-193.19, 191.00, 190.00, 189.55, 188.70, 187.00, 186.50, 182.63, 177.00, 176.68, 173.75, 171.10, 170.35, and 168.60. February RBOB has buy-stops over 200.05, 206.88-207.35, 208.30, 214.60, 219.27, 222.70, 228.86, 240.10, 250.40, 252.00, 265.10, 267.85, 270.85, 272.00, and 280.25. Sell-stops are under 195.55, 194.55, 189.65, 185.00-185.15, 184.60, 182.40, 181.20, 179.20, 177.30, 175.14, 171.40, and 170.25.
Football: The bears gained 15 yards on first down, giving the bears a new set of downs.
Technical Support & Resistance
Mar crude oil Support: $74.00-$74.40, $72.70-$72.85, $71.95-$72.05, $71.20-$71.30, $70.55-$70.65.
Resistance: $76.35-$76.50, $78.25-$78.36, $78.95-$79.05, $79.31-$79.47, $80.55-$80.67.
Feb heating oil Support: 193.00-193.20, 191.00-191.20, 190.00-190.15, 189.55-189.70, 188.70-188.85.
Resistance: 199.45-199.60, 203.40-203.51, 204.30-204.45, 205.40-205.50, 207.95-208.10.
Feb Rbob Support: 195.55-195.70, 194.55-194.70, 189.65-189.75, 185.00-185.15, 184.60-184.75
Resistance: 199.90-200.05, 206.25-206.35, 207.25-207.35, 208.10-208.30, 214.45-214.60.
Oil Inventory Reports
This week’s DOE report will attract very pointed attention. The four-week demand figures released by the DOE will be more important than they have been for a number of months, and it will not just be oil traders and analysts looking at these figures this week. Those looking at the economy are likely to see in these figures a fresh look at industrial demand. Further declines from the figures seen last week could be signs that the economy has more work in front of it than had been widely imagined at the start of 2010. Refinery utilization and crude oil import figures could also tell us about the broader economy.
Last Week’s Inventory Comparison: Distillate stocks are now 12.2 million bbls, or 8.42%, higher than a year ago. Heating oil inventories are 1.2 mln bbls, or 3.02%, higher than they were a year ago. Gasoline stocks are 12.0 mln bbls (up 5.57%) higher against a year ago. Crude oil stocks are now 7.5 million bbls, or 2.22%, lower than a year ago. Residual stocks are 3.0 mln bbls (8.38%) higher than a year ago, jet fuel stocks are 4.6 mln bbls, (11.76%) higher than a year ago. Utilization is 4.92% lower than a year ago and 9.60% below the eight-year average. It is 11.72% lower than the four-year, pre-Katrina average and 7.47% below the average of the four years since the big hurricanes (Katrina & Rita) in 2005.
Last Week’s Demand: Four-week, total refined products demand came in at 18.798 million bpd, down 0.394 mln bbls on the week, and down 0.336 mln bpd and 1.76% against a year ago. Two weeks ago, it was 0.050 mln bpd and 0.26% higher than a year ago. Four-week gasoline demand is at 8.789 mln bpd, down 0.23%, compared to up 0.32% two weeks ago. Four-week distillate demand is now at 3.660 mln bpd, down 6.84%, compared to down 0.98% two weeks ago. Four-week jet demand is now at 1.375 mln bpd, flat against a year ago, compared to up 8.17% two weeks ago. Four-week residual fuel demand is at 0.471 mln bpd, down 35.11%, compared to down 1.19% nine weeks ago. Propane use is up 14.74%, at 1.596 mln bpd, compared to being up 17.63% seven weeks ago.
Last Week’s API Report: This week’s API report showed a draw of 1.802 mln bbls in crude oil stocks, a draw of 3.385 mln bbls in distillate stocks and a build of 0.667 mln bbls in gasoline inventories. Utilization was down 2.5% to 77.3%. Implied demand came in at 8.945 mln bpd in gasoline and at 4.303 mln bpd in distillate. Crude oil imports were up 0.071 mln bpd to 9.800 mln bpd. This report was more in line with what had been expected a week ago; it was bullish.
DOE Weekly Inventory Statistics
| Category | Final DOE Estimate
This Week’s Estimate | History
Last Year’s Report | Most Recent Changes
Last Week’s DOE Report | Versus A Year Ago
Millions of Barrels |
| Distillate | dn 2.50 to 3.00 mln bbls | dn 1.005 | dn 3.263 mln bbls | up 12.200 |
| Gasoline | up 1.75 to 2.25 | dn 0.121 | up 3.950 | up 12.000 |
| Crude oil | up 2.50 to 3.50 | up 6.218 | dn 0.471 | dn 7.500 |
| Utilization | dn 0.5% to 1.0% | dn 0.8% at 82.5% | dn 2.92% at 78.38% | |
| Crude Imports | up 0.000 to 0.250 mmbd | dn 0.158 to 9.708 | dn 0.355 to 8.540 mln bpd | |
| DOE Distillate Demand | 3.823 mln bpd | up 209,000 | Gasoline Demand | 8.602 mln bpd | dn 138,000 |
| DOE Distillate Production | 3.483 mln bpd | dn 372,000 | Gasoline Production | 8.565 mln bpd | up 054,000 |
| DOE Distillate Imports | 0.272 mln bpd | dn 265,000 | Gasoline Imports | 0.730 mln bpd | dn 162,000 |
Source: US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration
Open Interest Analysis
Crude oil open interest fell by 5,426 contracts on Thursday, when prices were lower. That looks like long liquidation, which would be supportive.
Heating oil open interest grew by 3,731 contracts on Thursday, when prices were lower. That looks like new selling, which would be bearish.
RBOB open interest fell by 3,519 contracts on Thursday when prices were lower. That looks like long liquidation, which would be supportive.
Natural gas open interest fell by 5,613 on Thursday, when prices were higher. That looks like short-covering, which would be negative.
Thursday’s Open Interest Changes:
Crude 1,327,105 dn 5,426 Heat 314,626 up 3,731 RBOB 275,628 dn 3,519 Nat gas 773,300 dn 5,613
CFTC Commitments of Traders for Nymex (for the period ended Tuesday, Jan 19th)
Crude oil prices dropped $1.77bbl over the latest reporting period, and the best selling came from the “producer” category, which sold 14,219 new shorts and bought 10,294 new longs. Other reportable positions liquidated 8,462 longs and covered 5,789 shorts. There was net buying from swap dealers and managed money, with swap dealers adding 867 new longs and covering 700 shorts. Managed money liquidated 2,554 longs and covered 3,939 shorts.
In heating oil futures, prices dropped 8.64 cents a gallon, and the best net selling came from managed money accounts. They liquidated 12,289 long accounts and covered just 243 shorts. Everyone else was a net buyer, with producers liquidating 4,926 longs and covering 15,883 shorts, swap dealers adding 4,463 longs and covering 122 shorts, and other reportables buying 82 and covering 83 contracts. Fund selling pushed quotes lower.
Gasoline prices dropped 3.87 cents a gallon during the period under review. Managed money liquidated 3,011 longs and added 190 new shorts. Producers added 8,631 new longs and 4,968 new shorts. Swap dealers liquidated 597 longs and covered 146 shorts. Other reportables added 152 longs and covered 82 shorts. Funds pushed prices lower, here.
In natural gas, prices dropped 3.4 cents during the period under review. Producers added 8,443 longs and 8,327 shorts. Swap dealers added 4,622 new longs and covered 104 shorts, while other reportables liquidated 721 longs and added 5,506 new shorts. Managed money accounts liquidated 742 longs and covered 2,057 shorts. Other reportables were the best sellers.
Natural Gas & Utility Generation
Natural gas prices were up more than 20 cents per million Btu on Friday, as traders bought futures in the new, post-surplus world of natural gas. For more than a year, the dominant factor in natural gas trading has been the existence of surpluses, both against a year ago as well as against the five-year average. Up until last Thursday, it had been one of the market’s widely-held beliefs that these surpluses would continue to exert their influence on prices well into spring. And, then, after Thursday’s surprisingly bullish report, they were gone.
This is a new situation, and it is bullish. And, to make it even more pronounced, the latest weather reports suggest that we have more bitterly cold, Arctic air coming. Dow Jones cited AccuWeather calling for “Number-busting cold” moving “into the Northern Plains Tuesday” and then “through the Great Lakes and Northeast the rest of the week.” The National Weather Service (NWS) had a more succinct call for below-normal readings from the end of January into early February. The “heart of winter” continues until the end of January, and cold weather, even at the end of January, can give us another round of large drawdowns from storage. In other words, it now looks like we will have deficits in storage levels before Valentine’s Day.
That makes it increasingly likely that we will have potentially large deficits in storage by the time we reach spring. That probability makes the economy more of a wild card. For a while, there, economic recovery seemed like it would provide us with an improving baseline in consumption. At that stage, weather was the wild card. Now, with storage surpluses behind us and bitterly cold readings in front of us, the economy becomes the ‘other’ factor that could add a new dimension. If we get to April with large storage deficits, an economic recovery suddenly becomes extremely bullish.
For starters, the new reality with storage levels (the comparatively sudden and unexpected reduction of surpluses) informs us that prices are too low. They deserve to be higher, here. The imminent arrival of another blast of brutally cold air suggests that prices should be at more than $6.00/mmBtu right away and possibly much nearer to $7.00/mmBtu relatively soon after that.
In cash trading on Friday, Henry Hub prices were at $5.63-$5.72, up 0.15-$0.15 on the day (DJN). SoCal prices were at $5.72-$5.90, up $0.17-$0.26 on the day. El Paso Permian prices were up $0.18-$0.23 to $5.48-$5.63. Katy prices were up $0.14-$0.18 to $5.58-$5.66. Waha prices were up $0.04-$0.30 at $5.48-$5.75. Transco 6 was up $0.03-$0.13 at $6.10-$6.18/mmBtu, according to Dow Jones News (DJN).
Palo Verde prices were last quoted at $40.00-$45.00/mwh. Northeastern prices last traded at $39.75-$49.25. Entergy was last at $34.00-$34.50. Ercot was last at $37.50-$38.50/mwh.
Support is at $5.65-$5.67, $5.42-$5.45, $5.35-$5.38, $5.31-$5.33, $5.19-$5.21, $5.12-$5.14, $4.96-$4.99, $4.83-$4.85, $4.64-$4.66, $4.40-$4.43, $4.15-$4.17, $4.05-$4.08, $3.73-$3.75, $3.66-$3.68, $3.50-$3.53, $3.44-$3.46, $3.28-$3.32, $2.91-$2.93, $2.80-$2.82, $2.74-$2.75, and $2.69-$2.70. Resistance is at $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03, $6.09-$6.11, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37, $6.65-$6.69, $6.90-$6.94, $7.01-$7.04, $7.28-$7.31, and $7.34-$7.36.
Jan Natural Gas: Support: $5.65-$5.67, $5.42-$5.45, $5.35-$5.38, $5.31-$5.33, $5.19-$5.21, $5.12-$5.14.
Resistance: $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03, $6.09-$6.11, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37, $6.65-$6.69.
Natural gas prices were higher again on Friday, after another test of the major trendline.
Dollars per million Btu
The ratio of crude to natural gas dropped to 12.82-to-one on Friday. The ratio was at 12.60-to-one on December 17th.
Dollars per million Btu
EIA Weekly Storage Figures
Last week’s EIA report showed a draw of 245 bcf on expectations for a draw of 217-231 bcf. Stocks are now 22 bcf higher than a year ago, against a surplus of 103 bcf a week ago, a surplus of 286 bcf two weeks ago and a surplus of 379 bcf three weeks ago. Stocks are now 0.85% higher than a year ago. They are 6 bcf and 0.23% below the five-year average.
For this week, the eight-year average (of similar Friday reports) was a draw of 184.38 bcf. The five-year average was a draw of 184.4 bcf. Last year’s draw was 186 bcf. The range of draws was between 88 and 274 bcf.
EIA Report
| Region | 01-15-10 | 01-08-09 | Change | Last Year | 5 Yr Avg |
| Cons East | 1401 | 1532 | dn 131 | 1361 | 1457 |
| Cons West | 396 | 414 | dn 18 | 362 | 341 |
| Producing | 810 | 906 | dn 96 | 862 | 815 |
| Total US | 2607 | 2852 | dn 245 | 2585 | 2613 |
Bcf, or Billions of cubic feet. Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy
News & Views
| In trading on Nymex, March crude oil prices were up $0.18 at $74.72/barrel at 7.30 AM EST, this morning. February heating oil prices were up 1.29 cents to 1.9545/gallon. February RBOB prices were up 0.03 cents to $1.9660. February natural gas prices were down $0.065 to $5.754/mmBtu. Traders were lightly buying oil futures this morning in Asia in response to mild losses by the US dollar. Asian traders still cited concerns over global economic recovery as a big worry this week, and say that those concerns kept oil buying from becoming stronger. Market observers are watching for signs of additional Chinese credit tightening, and they are watching funds for signs of their future intentions in oil. They got long at the start of this year, and now seem under water with a raft of new holdings. Fourth Quarter GDP growth is expected to help bulls on Friday. The question, though, is whether growth will continue in 2010. 
Crude oil prices dropped again rather steeply on Friday, and they have now pierced the trendline broken over at the end of December on its way higher. There is still support beneath the market. | 
Heating oil prices dropped to new recent lows on Friday. There is still plenty of support below us, but prices have not been able to turn back up here, recently. Colder weather should help. DOE History: Distillate stocks have fallen in each of the last eight years, by an average of 2.441 mln bbls. The eight-year average is a draw of 2.441 mln bbls. Gasoline stocks rose in five of the last eight years, for a five-year build of 3.160 mln bbls and an eight-year average build of 1.110 mln bbls. Crude oil stocks have been higher in five of the last eight years for a five-year average build of 3.304 mln bbls and it has an eight-year average build of 1.777 mln bbls. Utilization has been lower in six of the last eight years and has an eight-year average decrease of 0.98%, and it has an eight-year average utilization figure of 87.00%. The four-year, pre-hurricane utilization average was 88.6%. Since Katrina, refineries have run at an average utilization rate of 85.40%. Crude oil imports have been lower in four of the last six years, and the average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been down 250,000 bpd. The average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been 9.641 million bpd. Imports were 1.1 million bpd below that average in last week’s report. |
| Crude oil prices are weaker than most expected here. | |
Traders are likely to turn their attention to this week’s DOE report early this week, and they are likely to linger over any economic data a little longer as each new piece of information is released. We are beginning to see economic news as increasingly important, with the economy balanced on the knife’s edge here.
An Illustrated Look at Energy Market Factors
A Look at the US Dollar Versus the Euro
Dollar-Euro (dollar in euro cents): Three-Month Bar-Chart 
The US dollar sold off slightly on Friday, but it is still stronger on the week. We have objective to the 72.80 euro area. Prices initially broke below support a week ago, after having consolidated between 69.00 and @ 70.20 euros. This week’s break took prices almost three-quarters of a euro over resistance, giving us our existing objective to 72.80 euros.
Source: http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forexqkchart&curcode1=USD&curcode2=EUR
A Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (djia)
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Six-Month Chart
The DJIA was down 216.90 points on Friday, following a decline of 213.27 points Thursday. Just a few sessions earlier, the DJIA had touched new recent highs. This looks like the proverbial “other shoe” dropping.
Source: http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=djia&sid=1643&time=6mo&Submit1=Refresh
A Look at Gasoline Supply & Demand
Thirteen-week demand is at 8.919 million bpd, down 0.43% against last year. Thirteen-week supply is at 9.797 mln bpd, down 1.01%. Thirteen-week implied demand is at 9.607 mln bpd, down 0.33% against a year earlier.
A Look at Distillate Supply & Demand
Thirteen-week demand is at 3.641 million bpd, down 9.42% against last year. Thirteen-week supply is at 4.097 mln bpd, down 12.22%. Thirteen-week implied demand is at 4.193 mln bpd, down 5.56%.
A Look at Refinery Utilization
Utilization is 4.92% lower than a year ago and 9.60% below the eight-year average. It is 11.72% lower than the four-year, pre-Katrina average and 7.47% below the average of the four years since the big hurricanes (Katrina & Rita) in 2005.
Recommendations for Specific Market Segments
Heating Oil Distributors The heating oil market should act as the barometer for the rest of the oil complex this week. We have some brutally cold temperatures reportedly moving eastwards, coming through the northern Plains and then dropping south and moving east to the Great Lakes, the Midwest, the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic regions by the end of the week. This should be bullish for heating oil more than others. The potential ‘rub’ is the economy, which suddenly seems headed towards a double dip. If heating oil prices continue lower through the week, we will need to see in that activity a larger decline in diesel demand than any increase in heating oil consumption. If prices do head higher, the combined outlook for heating oil and diesel, between the weather and the economy, could be seen as being favorable. We need to watch this market in that light this week. We would hold caps, but would not add to them just yet. Diesel Users We would hold capped-price protection here. NYH Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…212.05-212.55 plus 0.750 USG Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…207.80-208.30 minus 3.500 Jet/Kerosene Users & Airlines New York Harbor cash market differentials were 1.75 to 2.00 cents over January heating oil in NY Harbor and 3.25 under to 2.75 under the screen in the US Gulf. We still like locking in differentials. Diesel & Gasoline Marketers We would keep product hedged, because this market has been unexpectedly weak recently. Gasoline Blenders & End-Users Last week told us to expect lower prices. Unless we see a rally, we should expect to see further erosion. Prompt NYH Fuel Ethanol…..205.00-207.00 Prompt USG Fuel Ethanol….195.00-197.00 Quotes from 01-22-10 Heating Oil End-Users We would hold capped-price protection, but we are not keen to add to that protection until we have a better idea what the economy will do next. Speculators We would get back to flat right now. Refiners The 7:5+2 crack spread was $7.73 on Friday. Crude Oil Producers Crude oil prices need to find some support here soon or they may just keep on falling. The economy is becoming a growing concern. | Prompt Jet Fuel Prices New York Harbor 213.30-213.55 US Gulf 208.30-208.80 Midwest (Group Three) 195.65-196.65 Midwest (Chicago) 187.90-189.90 Los Angeles 206.00-208.00 San Francisco 206.00-208.00 Portland, Oregon 206.00-208.00 Cents per gallon Propane Prices Mont Belvieu……….…..non-TET………$1.287500 Cents per gallon  Gasoline prices fell below the trendline support that had been offering support until recently. There is support below this market, but prices have weakened suddenly, and they do not seem to have any real back-bone in them. The market just feels boneless here. It is odd.
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