Prices for January 27th, 2010
| HEATING OIL cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | FEB | 196.45 | 189.58 | 191.68 | dn 03.40 | | MAR | 197.50 | 190.47 | 192.67 | dn 03.49 | | APR | 198.00 | 191.34 | 193.34 | dn 03.45 | | MAY | 198.24 | 191.98 | 194.29 | dn 03.20 | | JUN | 199.00 | 193.12 | 195.44 | dn 02.99 | | JUL | 200.63 | 195.00 | 197.34 | dn 02.94 | | AUG | 202.39 | 198.40 | 199.33 | dn 02.90 | | SEP | 204.72 | 200.92 | 201.62 | dn 02.86 | | OCT | 207.30 | 202.00 | 204.17 | dn 02.91 | | NOV | 209.76 | 205.00 | 206.67 | dn 02.96 | | DEC | 212.30 | 207.00 | 209.17 | dn 03.01 | | JAN | 214.61 | 209.44 | 211.62 | dn 03.03 | | Estimated Volume (day before) total all prev day 103,761 | | NYMEX CRUDE OIL dollars per barrel | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | MAR | 75.09 | 72.65 | 73.67 | dn 01.04 | | APR | 75.51 | 73.14 | 74.15 | dn 01.00 | | MAY | 76.02 | 73.87 | 74.75 | dn 00.98 | | JUN | 76.57 | 74.30 | 75.32 | dn 00.97 | | JUL | 77.17 | 75.11 | 75.89 | dn 00.96 | | AUG | 76.43 | 75.56 | 76.41 | dn 00.97 | | | | | | | | | Estimated Volume… 455,173 Opec Basket…$71.94 dn $0.03
Prompt #2 Oil NYH 88..-1.00 to -0.50, 74 Lo S…+0.25 to +0.75
US Gulf 88 grade…-4.50 to -4.25, 74 grade Lo S…-2.00 to -1.50 Group .........-3.75 to -3.25 Lo S.....-3.75 to -3.25
Chicago ......-7.00 to -6.00 cash quotes by Dow Jones | | | |
| NYMEX RBOB GASOLINE cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | FEB | 198.07 | 191.15 | 193.92 | dn 02.82 | | MAR | 198.96 | 191.85 | 194.74 | dn 02.93 | | APR | 208.14 | 201.89 | 204.42 | dn 02.82 | | MAY | 208.90 | 202.43 | 205.30 | dn 02.77 | | JUN | 208.87 | 202.76 | 205.60 | dn 02.62 | | JUL | 208.02 | 202.40 | 205.29 | dn 02.53 | | AUG | 207.21 | 203.39 | 204.62 | dn 02.53 | | SEP | 206.34 | 202.42 | 203.77 | dn 02.55 | | Estimated RB Volume day before 103,969 | | NYMEX NATURAL GAS dollars per mmBtu | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | FEB | 5.482 | 5.223 | 5.274 | dn 0.211 | | MAR | 5.440 | 5.182 | 5.224 | dn 0.206 | | APR | 5.420 | 5.166 | 5.206 | dn 0.205 | | MAY | 5.460 | 5.217 | 5.258 | dn 0.201 | | | Estimated Volume…day before (242,232)
Nymex statistics are based on composite Access & Day Sessions
Prompt Gasoline NYH M5 -0.00 /+0.25 RBOB +6.00 /+7.00
US Gulf M4: -4.00 to -3.75 RBOB +1.00 to +1.50
L.A. Conv Reg 202.00-203.00, N-grade Group 188.90-189.15 Chi 187.75-188.25 | |
Market Review for Wednesday
HIS week’s DOE report showed a surprising build in distillate stocks (400,000 bbls), an in-line build in gasoline stocks (up 2.00 million bbls) and an unexpectedly large drawdown in crude oil stocks (down 3.900 million bbls). Crude oil imports dropped 673,000 bpd, to 7.867 million bpd, and that helped give us the large draw in crude oil stocks. On the other end, though, there was an unexpected increase in distillate imports, of 386,000 bpd, to the highest level in a long time (658,000 bpd). That helped give us the build in distillate inventories.
The immediate reaction we had was that this report was bullish for crude oil and bearish for distillates. That is not the response we got from the markets, though. Everything was lower, including crude oil prices, which dropped by more than a dollar a barrel. Traders noted that refinery throughput, at 13.6 million bpd, was the lowest for this time of year in 13 years and was the lowest since September, 2008, in the wake of Hurricanes Gustav and Ike.
| Fuel for Thought It has been an unusual period of roughly six weeks in gasoline prices. Prices reached a low of 181.24 on December 11th, when the open interest was 234,298 contracts. Prices started moving higher after that, with the biggest gains coming later in the month and in the first 11 days of January. The high of 219.27 was reached on January 11th, with an open interest of 279,147 contracts. The open interest did not start to increase until we actually got into the new year. On the final day of 2009, open interest was still at 234, 654. Prices had already started higher, showing that some were buying ahead of the main influx of buying in the new year. It looks like funds were buying, but have been selling over the last several sessions. |
Four-week products supplied, a proxy for total demand, came in at 18.753 million bpd, down 1.97% against a year ago. Last week, the four-week average was down 1.76% against a year ago. Four-week gasoline demand, which was higher in this week’s SpendingPulse figures, was down 0.83%, according to the DOE. Last week’s four-week average was 0.23% lower. And, four-week distillate demand came in at 3.677 million bpd, which is down 8.12% against last year’s four-week average. Last week, the four-week average was down 6.84%. Demand figures only seem to be getting worse.
Crude oil inventories are now 17.5 million bbls (5.08%) lower than a year ago. A week ago, they were 7.5 million bbls (2.22%) lower. At the same time, though, distillate stocks are now 13.2 million bbls (9.15%) higher, compared to 12.2 million bbls (8.42%) a week ago, while gasoline stocks are now 13.0 million bbls (6.01%) higher, compared to last week’s 12.0 million bbls (5.57%) higher. Crude stocks are dropping against a year ago, but products stocks are increasing.
In the final analysis, traders saw this week’s report as being bearish.
Technicals
Oil prices were lower yesterday, and it looks like we have had heavy long liquidation in gasoline, which lost more than 8,700 contracts on Tuesday. All three contracts broke and settled below recently established support levels, yesterday. The near-term trends are all pointed lower, here.
Dollars per barrel
Above: Crude oil prices have had similar declines without destroying the underlying uptrend. Prices are in a large range.
March crude oil now has buy-stops over $75.10, $75.42, $76.50, $78.36, $79.31-$79.47, $80.67, $82.35, $83.95, $84.83, $85.13, $89.82, $90.99, $93.02, $96.03, and $100.37. Sell-stops are under $72.65, $71.99, $71.20, $70.55, $69.30, $68.55, $68.00, $65.80-$66.20, and $64.95. February heating oil has buy-stops over 196.45, 196.92, 199.60, 203.51, 204.45, 205.50, 208.10, 210.91, 211.90, 217.55, 222.72, 225.80, 227.05, 229.08, 238.95, 249.62, and 251.50. Sell stops are under 189.55, 188.70, 187.00, 186.50, 182.63, 177.00, 176.68, 173.75, 171.10, 170.35, and 168.60. February RBOB has buy-stops over 198.10, 200.45, 206.88-207.35, 208.30, 214.60, 219.27, 222.70, 228.86, 240.10, 250.40, 252.00, 265.10, 267.85, 270.85, 272.00, and 280.25. Sell-stops are under 191.00-191.15, 189.65, 185.00-185.15, 184.60, 182.40, 181.20, 179.20, 177.30, 175.14, 171.40, and 170.25.
Football: The bears gained 10 yards yesterday on third and 12, making it fourth and two, today. That makes today important.
Technical Support & Resistance
Mar crude oil Support: $72.65-$72.85, $71.95-$72.05, $71.20-$71.30, $70.55-$70.65, $69.30-$69.45.
Resistance: $75.00-$75.10, $75.35-$75.42, $76.35-$76.50, $78.25-$78.36, $78.95-$79.05.
Feb heating oil Support: 191.00-191.20, 190.00-190.15, 189.55-189.70, 188.70-188.85, 187.00-187.20.
Resistance: 196.35-196.45, 196.80-196.92, 199.45-199.60, 203.40-203.51, 204.30-204.45.
Feb Rbob Support: 191.00-191.20, 189.65-189.75, 185.00-185.15, 184.60-184.75, 182.40-182.55.
Resistance: 197.90-198.10, 200.30-200.45, 206.25-206.35, 207.25-207.35, 208.10-208.30.
Oil Inventory Reports
This week’s DOE report showed a surprising drawdown in crude oil stocks. Observers had expected a build, so the fact that there was a drawdown – a large drawdown – should have been seen as a bullish factor. Refined products inventories were higher, which was surprising for distillate stocks, which had been expected to be lower. Refinery utilization was up 0.1%, but throughput reached its lowest level (13.6 mln bpd) in 13 years. Crude oil imports dropped again, and are now beneath 8 million bpd. Distillate imports jumped higher, which was surprising. Consumption continued to weaken almost across the board.
This Week’s Inventory Comparison: Distillate stocks are now 13.2 million bbls, or 9.15%, higher than a year ago. Heating oil inventories are 2.3 mln bbls, or 5.91%, higher than they were a year ago. Gasoline stocks are 13.0 mln bbls (up 6.01%) higher against a year ago. Crude oil stocks are now 17.5 million bbls, or 5.08%, lower than a year ago. Residual stocks are 2.2 mln bbls (6.18%) higher than a year ago, jet fuel stocks are 4.0 mln bbls, (10.08%) higher than a year ago. Utilization is 4.00% lower than a year ago and 8.50% below the eight-year average. It is 10.10% lower than the four-year, pre-Katrina average and 6.90% below the average of the four years since the big hurricanes (Katrina & Rita) in 2005.
This Week’s Demand: Four-week, total refined products demand came in at 18.753 million bpd, down 0.045 mln bbls on the week, and down 0.376 mln bpd and 1.97% against a year ago. Three weeks ago, it was 0.050 mln bpd and 0.26% higher than a year ago. Four-week gasoline demand is at 8.676 mln bpd, down 0.23%, compared to up 0.32% three weeks ago. It fell 113,000 bpd on the week. Four-week distillate demand is now at 3.677 mln bpd, down 8.12%, compared to down 0.98% three weeks ago. Four-week jet demand is now at 1.388 mln bpd, up 1.53% against a year ago, compared to up 8.17% three weeks ago. Four-week residual fuel demand is at 0.490 mln bpd, down 31.28%, compared to down 1.19% 10 weeks ago. Propane use is up 18.18%, at 1.596 mln bpd.
This Week’s API Report: This week’s API report showed a draw of 2.225 mln bbls in crude oil stocks, a draw of 1.978 mln bbls in distillate stocks and a build of 0.916 mln bbls in gasoline inventories. Utilization was up 0.3% to 77.6%. Implied demand came in at 8.859 mln bpd in gasoline and at 4.468 mln bpd in distillate. Crude oil imports were down 1.487 mln bpd to 8.313 mln bpd. The drawdown in crude oil stocks was unexpected, but came on much lower imports and higher utilization.
DOE Weekly Inventory Statistics
| Category | Final DOE Estimate
This Week’s Estimate | History
Last Year’s Report | Most Recent Changes
This Week’s DOE Report | Versus A Year Ago
Millions of Barrels |
| Distillate | dn 2.50 to 3.00 mln bbls | dn 1.005 | up 0.400 mln bbls | up 13.200 |
| Gasoline | up 1.75 to 2.25 | dn 0.121 | up 2.000 | up 13.000 |
| Crude oil | up 2.50 to 3.50 | up 6.218 | dn 3.900 | dn 17.500 |
| Utilization | dn 0.5% to 1.0% | dn 0.8% at 82.5% | up 0.10% at 78.50% | |
| Crude Imports | up 0.000 to 0.250 mmbd | dn 0.158 to 9.708 | dn 0.673 to 7.867 mln bpd | |
| DOE Distillate Demand | 3.725 mln bpd | dn 098,000 | Gasoline Demand | 8.619 mln bpd | up 017,000 |
| DOE Distillate Production | 3.516 mln bpd | up 033,000 | Gasoline Production | 8.636 mln bpd | up 071,000 |
| DOE Distillate Imports | 0.658 mln bpd | up 386,000 | Gasoline Imports | 0.823 mln bpd | up 093,000 |
Source: US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration
Open Interest Analysis
Crude oil open interest grew by 2,528 contracts on Tuesday, when prices were lower. That looks like new selling, which would be bearish.
Heating oil open interest grew by 82 contracts on Tuesday, when prices were lower. That looks like light, new selling, which would be negative.
RBOB open interest fell by 8,747 contracts on Tuesday when prices were lower. That looks like heavy long liquidation and suggests that the longs that bought earlier in the month are now liquidating holdings.
Natural gas open interest fell by 14,648 on Tuesday, when prices were lower. That looks like very heavy long liquidation, which would be supportive. Still, it looks like longs are getting out of positions. The February contract expired yesterday.
Tuesday’s Open Interest Changes:
Crude 1,320,963 up 2,528 Heat 315,328 up 82 RBOB 261,580 dn 8,747 Nat gas 769,887 dn 14,648
CFTC Commitments of Traders for Nymex (for the period ended Tuesday, Jan 19th)
Crude oil prices dropped $1.77bbl over the latest reporting period, and the best selling came from the “producer” category, which sold 14,219 new shorts and bought 10,294 new longs. Other reportable positions liquidated 8,462 longs and covered 5,789 shorts. There was net buying from swap dealers and managed money, with swap dealers adding 867 new longs and covering 700 shorts. Managed money liquidated 2,554 longs and covered 3,939 shorts.
In heating oil futures, prices dropped 8.64 cents a gallon, and the best net selling came from managed money accounts. They liquidated 12,289 long accounts and covered just 243 shorts. Everyone else was a net buyer, with producers liquidating 4,926 longs and covering 15,883 shorts, swap dealers adding 4,463 longs and covering 122 shorts, and other reportables buying 82 and covering 83 contracts. Fund selling pushed quotes lower.
Gasoline prices dropped 3.87 cents a gallon during the period under review. Managed money liquidated 3,011 longs and added 190 new shorts. Producers added 8,631 new longs and 4,968 new shorts. Swap dealers liquidated 597 longs and covered 146 shorts. Other reportables added 152 longs and covered 82 shorts. Funds pushed prices lower, here.
In natural gas, prices dropped 3.4 cents during the period under review. Producers added 8,443 longs and 8,327 shorts. Swap dealers added 4,622 new longs and covered 104 shorts, while other reportables liquidated 721 longs and added 5,506 new shorts. Managed money accounts liquidated 742 longs and covered 2,057 shorts. Other reportables were the best sellers.
Natural Gas & Utility Generation
Natural gas prices were down another 21 cents per million Btu yesterday, as long liquidation in the expiring February contract led traders in a blizzard of selling. Prices broke below an important uptrend line on Tuesday, settling just below it. Yesterday’s further decline confirmed Tuesday’s technical breakdown, and that seems to have brought in additional selling by commission houses, or traditional speculators. This technical selling might have even been heavier than the more fundamentally-oriented weather selling that was also a major factor in yesterday’s trading.
Yesterday’s focus shifted slightly. While traders were still talking about recent changes in temperature forecasts, which now suggest more moderate readings in the Midwest and Northeast over the next two weeks, there was talk about existing output being sufficient to provide enough supply to make it through this heating season. The talk was not about storage, which underwent a major transformation with last week’s underground storage figures. Even so, today’s EIA report is likely to give us a fresh increase in the surpluses against both a year ago and against the five-year average for this time of year.
Bloomberg is looking for a median draw of 104 bcf, with the average estimate coming in at a draw of 106 bcf. The range of estimates in its poll was between 80 and 135 bcf lower. Dow Jones is looking for a draw of 108 bcf. Last year, there was a drawdown of 186 bcf, and the five-year average draw was 184 bcf, according to our records of similar Friday reports. Using precise dates, last year’s draw was 184 bcf, and the five-year average draw was 179 bcf. No matter how one slices it, it looks like we will add roughly 75-80 bcf to the surpluses against a year ago and against the five-year average.
There was not much of a “honeymoon” for the bulls after last week’s rather spectacular EIA underground storage report. It effectively eliminated the surpluses against both a year ago and against the five-year average. But, that was its moment in the sun, as it were. Traders apparently sat down with very sharp pencils and calculated the likelihood that 75 bcf would be added this week. At the time, it looked like very cold temperatures were headed for a potentially lengthy stay in the Midwest and Northeast. But, by Monday, that had evaporated and the bears returned.
In cash trading yesterday, Henry Hub prices were at $5.35-$5.50, down 0.15-$0.20 on the day (DJN). SoCal prices were at $5.52-$5.58, down $0.15-$0.15 on the day. El Paso Permian prices were down $0.14-$0.15 to $5.29-$5.37. Katy prices were down $0.16-$0.20 to $5.24-$5.36. Waha prices were down $0.14-$0.16 at $5.30-$5.36. Transco 6 was down $0.05-$0.15 at $5.92-$6.10/mmBtu, according to Dow Jones News (DJN).
Palo Verde prices were last quoted at $42.00-$44.00/mwh. Northeastern prices last traded at $37.60-$55.00. Entergy was last at $44.75-$45.25. Ercot was last at $39.25-$39.75/mwh.
Support is at $5.19-$5.22, $5.12-$5.14, $4.96-$4.99, $4.83-$4.85, $4.64-$4.66, $4.40-$4.43, $4.15-$4.17, $4.05-$4.08, $3.73-$3.75, $3.66-$3.68, $3.50-$3.53, $3.44-$3.46, $3.28-$3.32, $2.91-$2.93, $2.80-$2.82, $2.74-$2.75, and $2.69-$2.70. Resistance is at $5.48-$5.50, $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03, $6.09-$6.11, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37, $6.65-$6.69, $6.90-$6.94, $7.01-$7.04, $7.28-$7.31, and $7.34-$7.36.
Mar Natural Gas: Support: $5.19-$5.22, $5.12-$5.14, $4.96-$4.99, $4.83-$4.85, $4.64-$4.66, $4.40-$4.43.
Resistance: $5.48-$5.50, $5.71-$5.73, $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03, $6.09-$6.11, $6.15-$6.17.
Natural gas prices fell further yesterday, confirming the breakdown below the trendline.
Dollars per million Btu
The ratio of crude to gas finished at 13.97-to-one yesterday.
Dollars per million Btu
EIA Weekly Storage Figures
Last week’s EIA report showed a draw of 245 bcf on expectations for a draw of 217-231 bcf. Stocks are now 22 bcf higher than a year ago, against a surplus of 103 bcf a week ago, a surplus of 286 bcf two weeks ago and a surplus of 379 bcf three weeks ago. Stocks are now 0.85% higher than a year ago. They are 6 bcf and 0.23% below the five-year average.
For this week, the eight-year average (of similar Friday reports) was a draw of 184.38 bcf. The five-year average was a draw of 184.4 bcf. Last year’s draw was 186 bcf. Estimates are for a draw of 104-108 bcf.
EIA Report
| Region | 01-15-10 | 01-08-09 | Change | Last Year | 5 Yr Avg |
| Cons East | 1401 | 1532 | dn 131 | 1361 | 1457 |
| Cons West | 396 | 414 | dn 18 | 362 | 341 |
| Producing | 810 | 906 | dn 96 | 862 | 815 |
| Total US | 2607 | 2852 | dn 245 | 2585 | 2613 |
Bcf, or Billions of cubic feet. Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy
News & Views
| In trading on Nymex, March crude oil prices were up $0.47 at $74.14/barrel at 8.30 AM EST, this morning. February heating oil prices were up 1.79 cents to 1.9347/gallon. February RBOB prices were up 1.64 cents to $1.9556. March natural gas prices were up $0.003 to $5.227/mmBtu. Oil prices were slightly higher overnight in Asia, as traders there reportedly reacted to optimism in last night’s State of the Union address. At this stage, though, it would be premature to see a ringing endorsement in this morning’s early figures. Perceptions in the US may not reflect the same optimism. Traders are struggling to weigh a number of competing factors, some of which have not been seen in decades. Oil demand remains extremely low, but refiners have clearly taken steps to rein in output and supplies. And, there are other factors vying for attention, with a stronger US dollar, a halting US stock market, uncertain economic factors and vacillating temperature forecasts all printing headlines. 
Crude oil prices broke and settled below $74.00 yesterday. They finished off the day’s lows, but not by enough to suggest more than late short-covering, possibly in sympathy with rallying equities. | 
Heating oil prices finished lower yesterday, and prices are nearing major support in the 187.00-188.90 area. A break and settle below that support would be bearish.. The latest Federal Reserve statement also deserves attention. While the reference to low interest rates for an extended period remains a part of the most recent Fed statement, there is now a voice of dissent, and that is likely to be the first in a growing group. At the same time, though, the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates until the economy is strong enough to bear them. As a result, the next increase in Fed funds could be a bigger sign of economic recovery than an occasion for knee-jerk selling in equities markets. In figures released this morning, unemployment claims fell to 470,000 from 478,000. And durable goods orders were up 0.9%, or without transportation, up 0.3%. Neither number is earth-shaking, nor is especially bullish or bearish. We do not feel that yesterday’s 3.9 million bbl draw in crude stocks got much play. The “jump-out-at-one” number was the 517,000 bpd shift to the supply side in distillate. |
| Crude oil prices broke and settled beneath $74.00 yesterday. | |
Traders will get a look at fourth quarter GDP tomorrow. That figure could tell us more about an economy that seems increasingly difficult to call, near term. With distillate week-on-week demand down 98,000 bpd, output up 33,000 bpd and imports up 386,000 bpd, there was a shift of 517,000 to the supply side in distillate in this week’s DOE report.
An Illustrated Look at Energy Market Factors
A Look at the US Dollar Versus the Euro
Dollar-Euro (dollar in euro cents): Three-Month Bar-Chart 
The US dollar was higher yesterday, and it broke decisively to new highs, which would seem to confirm objectives to the 72.80-73.00 euro area. The one note of caution comes from the fact that prices sold off later in the day, finishing near the day’s lows. That may turn yesterday’s breakout into a bull trap, ultimately. It bears watching.
Source: http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forexqkchart&curcode1=USD&curcode2=EUR
A Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (djia)
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Six-Month Chart
The DJIA started out moving lower yesterday, but it finished the day in positive territory, after a late rally. Prices finished up 41.87 points on the day. This looks like a common reversal higher and could be the start of a recovery in prices.
Source: http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=djia&sid=1643&time=6mo&Submit1=Refresh
A Look at Gasoline Supply & Demand
Thirteen-week demand is at 8.900 million bpd, down 0.29% against last year. Thirteen-week supply is at 9.787 mln bpd, down 1.21%. Thirteen-week implied demand is at 9.593 mln bpd, down 0.43% against a year earlier.
A Look at Distillate Supply & Demand
Thirteen-week demand is at 3.648 million bpd, down 9.48% against last year. Thirteen-week supply is at 4.112 mln bpd, down 11.49%. Thirteen-week implied demand is at 4.181 mln bpd, down 6.16%.
A Look at Refinery Utilization
Utilization is 4.00% lower than a year ago and 8.50% below the eight-year average. It is 10.10% lower than the four-year, pre-Katrina average and 6.90% below the average of the four years since the big hurricanes (Katrina & Rita) in 2005.
Recommendations for Specific Market Segments
Heating Oil Distributors Heating oil prices dropped again yesterday, and traders continue to see very low demand tempered by very low supplies. Distillate four-week demand fell again in the latest aggregate figures, and it is now down more than 8% against the four-week demand numbers seen a year ago. On a week-to-week basis, this week’s DOE statistics showed a 33,000 bpd increase in output and a 98,000 bpd drop in demand. But, the really large figure came from an unexpected source yesterday, with imports jumping 386,000 bpd. That gives us a movement of 517,000 bpd towards the supply side. It is a one-week figure. But, it is a figure that needs to be borne in mind as we take a look at succeeding reports over the next couple of weeks. Half a million bpd towards the supply side is a tough nut to crack for the bulls, here. We are still holding capped-price programs, but largely as insurance against the unknown. We would not do anything new here. Diesel Users We would hold capped-price protection here, without adding more. NYH Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…195.40-195.90 plus 3.000 USG Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…191.15-191.65 minus 1.250 Jet/Kerosene Users & Airlines New York Harbor cash market differentials were 3.50 to 4.00 cents over January heating oil in NY Harbor and 0.75 under to 0.25 under the screen in the US Gulf. We still li ke locking in differentials. Diesel & Gasoline Marketers We would keep product hedged, because this market has been unexpectedly weak recently. Gasoline Blenders & End-Users Until we see prices build some kind of price base, we should expect to see them under selling pressure. Prompt NYH Fuel Ethanol…..192.00-195.00 Prompt USG Fuel Ethanol….182.00-185.00 Quotes from 01-27-10 Heating Oil End-Users We would hold capped-price protection, but we are not keen to add to that protection here or now. Speculators We want to remain on the sidelines here. Refiners The 7:5+2 crack spread was $7.51 yesterday. Crude Oil Producers Crude oil prices were off a little more than a dollar yesterday and that pushed quotes below support at $73.80-$74.00. This week’s DOE crude figures were not as bad as the reaction suggested. | Prompt Jet Fuel Prices New York Harbor 196.15-196.65 US Gulf 191.90-192.40 Midwest (Group Three) 193.70-195.70 Midwest (Chicago) 187.65-188.65 Los Angeles 195.00-196.00 San Francisco 195.00-196.00 Portland, Oregon 195.00-196.00 Cents per gallon Propane Prices Mont Belvieu……….…..non-TET………$1.391670 Cents per gallon  Gasoline prices were lower yesterday, breaking and finishing below the support at 195.20. While yesterday’s settlement was bearish, there is still support at 181.24. Of course, if prices get close enough to challenge that level, a good 12 cents below yesterday’s settlement, it would be bearish in its own right. At this stage, the near-term trend is lower.
|