Prices for January 29th, 2010
| HEATING OIL cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | FEB | 193.90 | 189.03 | 190.29 | dn 01.62 | | MAR | 195.22 | 190.05 | 191.30 | dn 01.60 | | APR | 195.81 | 190.69 | 191.94 | dn 01.58 | | MAY | 196.22 | 192.32 | 192.67 | dn 01.72 | | JUN | 197.67 | 192.66 | 193.69 | dn 01.86 | | JUL | 199.33 | 195.79 | 195.60 | dn 01.87 | | AUG | 200.67 | 197.70 | 197.68 | dn 01.79 | | SEP | 203.08 | 199.000 | 200.01 | dn 01.75 | | OCT | 205.70 | 202.45 | 202.51 | dn 01.75 | | NOV | 208.01 | 205.48 | 204.94 | dn 01.75 | | DEC | 210.52 | 206.48 | 207.37 | dn 01.75 | | JAN | 213.24 | 208.93 | 209.80 | dn 01.75 | | Estimated Volume (day before) total all prev day 113,192 | | NYMEX CRUDE OIL dollars per barrel | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | MAR | 74.82 | 72.43 | 72.89 | dn 00.75 | | APR | 75.21 | 72.89 | 73.35 | dn 00.72 | | MAY | 75.77 | 73.47 | 73.95 | dn 00.69 | | JUN | 76.27 | 74.08 | 74.53 | dn 00.65 | | JUL | 76.82 | 74.64 | 75.08 | dn 00.64 | | AUG | 77.18 | 75.15 | 75.58 | dn 00.64 | | | | | | | | | Estimated Volume… 488,128 Opec Basket…$71.40 dn $0.47
Prompt #2 Oil NYH 88..-0.50 to -0.00, 74 Lo S…+1.00 to +1.50
US Gulf 88 grade…-5.00 to -4.50, 74 grade Lo S…-3.25 to -2.75 Group .........-5.25 to -4.75 Lo S.....-5.25 to -4.75
Chicago ......-5.50 to -5.00 cash quotes by Dow Jones | | | |
| NYMEX RBOB GASOLINE cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | FEB | 194.60 | 188.99 | 190.31 | dn 01.43 | | MAR | 195.85 | 190.00 | 191.34 | dn 01.40 | | APR | 206.00 | 200.85 | 202.12 | dn 01.08 | | MAY | 206.86 | 202.00 | 203.16 | dn 01.14 | | JUN | 207.45 | 203.11 | 203.58 | dn 01.15 | | JUL | 207.17 | 203.31 | 203.35 | dn 01.14 | | AUG | 205.13 | 202.75 | 202.69 | dn 01.16 | | SEP | 204.54 | 202.04 | 201.81 | dn 01.17 | | Estimated RB Volume day before 105,980 | | NYMEX NATURAL GAS dollars per mmBtu | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | MAR | 5.285 | 5.094 | 5.131 | dn 0.007 | | APR | 5.261 | 5.085 | 5.120 | dn 0.008 | | MAY | 5.305 | 5.151 | 5.171 | dn 0.010 | | JUN | 5.371 | 5.210 | 5.242 | dn 0.010 | | | Estimated Volume…day before (196,021)
Nymex statistics are based on composite Access & Day Sessions
Prompt Gasoline NYH M5 -1.00 /-0.75 RBOB +2.75 /+4.25
US Gulf M4: -4.50 to -4.25 RBOB +0.50 to +1.00
L.A. Conv Reg 199.00-200.00, N-grade Group 183.05-183.55 Chi 183.85-184.35 | |
Market Review for Friday & over the Weekend
HE oil complex advanced in the early trading on Friday, as traders reacted to the fourth quarter GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures. These showed growth of 5.7%, annualized, the largest growth rate seen since 2003. This figure helped oil prices, but it also boosted the US dollar, as traders saw the US as the strongest of its major trading partners (outside of China). Equities were also boosted by the figures, and the DJIA was up 65 points in trading after the GDP number was released. But, none of it held. By the end of the day, crude oil prices were down more than a dollar, and they finished with losses of six bits. The DJIA ended down 53 points. Only the dollar remained higher and it ended on its highs for the day. It was a strange reaction for equities. It was their third day running with a fairly wide trading range, and it was the weakest finish of any day last week, leaving the DJIA with a fairly bearish weekly barchart entry. Investors seem to have been concerned that growth was only 2.0% after inventory increases were stripped out of the GDP numbers.
| Fuel for Thought Nigerian rebels in the Delta region have announced the end of their unilateral ceasefire with the Nigerian government. This truce had been in effect since late October and had allowed oil facilities to repair infrastructure that had come under attack repeatedly over the last few years. MEND released the statement below: “The ceasefire was ordered in the hope that the government … would consider true dialogue … to bring justice to the people of the Niger Delta … .” It no says that the government has “no intentions” of ceding “control of the resources and land of the Niger Delta … to the rightful owners, the people of the Niger Delta.” MEND has pledged an “all-out onslaught against their [oil company] installations … .” |
It was, though, still the biggest increase in GDP in six years. Currency traders continued to see the dollar as representative of the strongest Western economy right through the end of trading in that market.
It was the seventh out of eight sessions in which oil prices finished lower. Through most of 2009, and into the first week of this year, the GDP figure we saw on Friday would have been strong enough to help boost prices. It was strong enough to boost prices for the first half of the day. But, as the afternoon rounded into the final bell, supply and demand factors came back into play. And the combination, later in the day, of a weakening stock market and bearish oil market fundamentals, turned out to be enough to push the oil complex lower.
Economic analysts noted that consumer spending was notably absent from the GDP improvement, which came largely (almost two-thirds of it) from what many saw as one-time inventory restocking just for the holidays. The bread and butter of the economy, consumer spending, contributed just 1.44% to the economy’s growth. Final demand is not getting better, and traders seem to be realizing that higher oil prices only exacerbate the weakness of spending.
Technicals
Oil prices were lower again on Friday, and this could have been the most shattering of days for the bulls so far this year. The bulls had made some headway in Friday’s early trading and it looked like prices were going to sustain their gains. As the afternoon developed, though, gains turned to losses, and prices finished on weak notes.
Cents per gallon
Above: Heating oil prices finished last week below trendline support that started almost a year ago.
March crude oil now has buy-stops over $74.85, $75.10, $75.42, $76.50, $78.36, $79.31-$79.47, $80.67, $82.35, $83.95, $84.83, $85.13, $89.82, $90.99, $93.02, $96.03, and $100.37. Sell-stops are under $72.40, $71.99, $71.20, $70.55, $69.30, $68.55, $68.00, $65.80-$66.20, and $64.95. March heating oil has buy-stops over 193.90, 194.76, 196.45, 196.92, 199.60, 203.51, 204.45, 205.50, 208.10, 210.91, 211.90, 217.55, 222.72, 225.80, 227.05, 229.08, 238.95, 249.62, and 251.50. Sell stops are under 189.00, 188.70, 187.00, 186.50, 182.63, 177.00, 176.68, 173.75, 171.10, 170.35, and 168.60. March RBOB has buy-stops over 194.60, 196.50, 198.10, 200.45, 206.88-207.35, 208.30, 214.60, 219.27, 222.70, 228.86, 240.10, 250.40, 252.00, 265.10, 267.85, 270.85, 272.00, and 280.25. Sell-stops are under 188.99, 185.00-185.15, 184.60, 182.40, 181.20, 179.20, 177.30, 175.14, 171.40, and 170.25.
Football: The bulls lost seven yards on what might have really been the bears’ down. Today will tell us better.
Technical Support & Resistance
Mar crude oil Support: $72.40-$72.55, $71.95-$72.05, $71.20-$71.30, $70.55-$70.65, $69.30-$69.45.
Resistance: $74.70-$74.85, $75.00-$75.10, $75.35-$75.42, $76.35-$76.50, $78.25-$78.36.
Mar heating oil Support: 189.00-189.15, 188.70-188.85, 187.00-187.20, 186.50-186.65, 182.60-182.70.
Resistance: 193.75-193.90, 194.65-194.80, 196.35-196.45, 196.80-196.92, 199.45-199.60.
Mar Rbob Support: 188.95-189.10, 185.00-185.15, 184.60-184.75, 182.40-182.55, 181.20-181.30.
Resistance: 194.45-194.60, 196.30-196.50, 197.90-198.10, 200.30-200.45, 206.25-206.35.
Oil Inventory Reports
This week’s DOE report has shown some very large builds in crude oil stocks over the years, and three of the last eight years have shown builds of more than 7 million barrels. Distillate stocks have had some rather large draws in this week’s reports, and three years had draws of 1.4 to 1.6 million barrels while three other years had draws of 3.7 million, 6.8 million and 10.3 million barrels. Three of the last four builds in gasoline stocks have shown increases of 2.6 to 4.3 million barrels. Utilization has declined more often than it has risen this week, with four increases coming in between 1.2% and 1.6%.
Last Week’s Inventory Comparison: Distillate stocks are now 13.2 million bbls, or 9.15%, higher than a year ago. Heating oil inventories are 2.3 mln bbls, or 5.91%, higher than they were a year ago. Gasoline stocks are 13.0 mln bbls (up 6.01%) higher against a year ago. Crude oil stocks are now 17.5 million bbls, or 5.08%, lower than a year ago. Residual stocks are 2.2 mln bbls (6.18%) higher than a year ago, jet fuel stocks are 4.0 mln bbls, (10.08%) higher than a year ago. Utilization is 4.00% lower than a year ago and 8.50% below the eight-year average. It is 10.10% lower than the four-year, pre-Katrina average and 6.90% below the average of the four years since the big hurricanes (Katrina & Rita) in 2005.
Last Week’s Demand: Four-week, total refined products demand came in at 18.753 million bpd, down 0.045 mln bbls on the week, and down 0.376 mln bpd and 1.97% against a year ago. Three weeks ago, it was 0.050 mln bpd and 0.26% higher than a year ago. Four-week gasoline demand is at 8.676 mln bpd, down 0.23%, compared to up 0.32% three weeks ago. It fell 113,000 bpd on the week. Four-week distillate demand is now at 3.677 mln bpd, down 8.12%, compared to down 0.98% three weeks ago. Four-week jet demand is now at 1.388 mln bpd, up 1.53% against a year ago, compared to up 8.17% three weeks ago. Four-week residual fuel demand is at 0.490 mln bpd, down 31.28%, compared to down 1.19% 10 weeks ago. Propane use is up 18.18%, at 1.596 mln bpd.
Last Week’s API Report: This week’s API report showed a draw of 2.225 mln bbls in crude oil stocks, a draw of 1.978 mln bbls in distillate stocks and a build of 0.916 mln bbls in gasoline inventories. Utilization was up 0.3% to 77.6%. Implied demand came in at 8.859 mln bpd in gasoline and at 4.468 mln bpd in distillate. Crude oil imports were down 1.487 mln bpd to 8.313 mln bpd. The drawdown in crude oil stocks was unexpected, but came on much lower imports and higher utilization.
DOE Weekly Inventory Statistics
| Category | Final DOE Estimate
This Week’s Estimate | History
Last Year’s Report | Most Recent Changes
Last Week’s DOE Report | Versus A Year Ago
Millions of Barrels |
| Distillate | dn 1.75 to 2.25 mln bbls | dn 1.400 | up 0.400 mln bbls | up 13.200 |
| Gasoline | up 1.75 to 2.25 | up 0.300 | up 2.000 | up 13.000 |
| Crude oil | up 3.50 to 4.50 | up 7.200 | dn 3.900 | dn 17.500 |
| Utilization | dn 0.3% to 0.8% | up 1.0% at 83.5% | up 0.10% at 78.50% | |
| Crude Imports | up 0.250 to 0.750 mmbd | up 0.329 to 10.037 | dn 0.673 to 7.867 mln bpd | |
| DOE Distillate Demand | 3.725 mln bpd | dn 098,000 | Gasoline Demand | 8.619 mln bpd | up 017,000 |
| DOE Distillate Production | 3.516 mln bpd | up 033,000 | Gasoline Production | 8.636 mln bpd | up 071,000 |
| DOE Distillate Imports | 0.658 mln bpd | up 386,000 | Gasoline Imports | 0.823 mln bpd | up 093,000 |
Source: US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration
Open Interest Analysis
Crude oil open interest grew by 9,014 contracts on Thursday, when prices were lower. That looks like heavy new selling, on balance, and is bearish.
Heating oil open interest fell by 3,703 contracts on Thursday, when prices were higher. That looks like short-covering ahead of Friday’s February contract expiration.
RBOB open interest fell by 8,687 contracts on Thursday when prices were lower. That looks like long liquidation and suggests that the longs that bought earlier in the month are now liquidating holdings. February contracts expired on Friday.
Natural gas open interest fell by 2,756 on Thursday, when prices were lower. That looks like long liquidation, which would be theoretically supportive, with longs getting out and able to return in the future.
Thursday’s Open Interest Changes:
Crude 1,315,625 up 9,014 Heat 310,886 dn 3,703 RBOB 250,006 dn 8,687 Nat gas 771,243 dn 2,756
CFTC Commitments of Traders for Nymex (for the period ended Tuesday, Jan 26th)
Crude oil prices dropped $4.61bbl over the latest reporting period, and the best selling came from the “other reportables” category, which liquidated 7,251 existing longs. They also covered 1,113 old shorts. Producers covered 7,289 shorts and liquidated 348 longs. Managed Money bought 1,630 new longs and covered 1,688 shorts while Swap Dealers bought 79 new longs and sold 1,897 new shorts. Managed Money and Swap Dealers still hold the largest net long positions.
In heating oil futures, prices dropped 9.46 cents a gallon, and the best net selling came from Managed Money accounts. They liquidated 6,647 longs and added 6,189 new shorts. Everyone else was a net buyer, with producers buying 5,130 longs and covering 2,209 shorts, swap dealers adding 4,233 longs and covering 104 shorts, and other reportables buying 1,994 longs and selling 499 new short contracts. Managed Money sold and liquidated almost equally and their selling pressed quotes down.
Gasoline prices dropped 9.17 cents a gallon during the period under review. Managed money liquidated 14,698 longs and covered 3,008 shorts. Producers added 1,479 new longs and covered 9,120 shorts. Swap dealers added 2,738 new longs and covered 330 shorts. Other reportables liquidated 160 longs and covered 1,143 shorts. Fund liquidation was the motive force.
In natural gas, prices dropped 7.2 cents during the period under review. Producers liquidated 9,336 longs and covered 5,715 shorts. Swap dealers liquidated 4,168 longs and added 100 shorts, while other reportables liquidated 1,331 longs and covered 5,630 shorts. Managed Money accounts added 1,243 longs and covered 626 shorts. Producer liquidation moved quotes most.
Natural Gas & Utility Generation
Natural gas prices were slightly lower on Friday as traders tried to sort out the week’s events. Prices tried to advance in the earlier trading, like so many other markets, on the back of the fourth quarter GDP figures. Natural gas traders have been looking for signs that the economic recovery is gathering enough steam to boost consumption but, by the end of the day, traders in natural gas decided to go with what they have, rather than what they might want to believe is coming. So much of the movement higher in energy markets in 2009 (more noticeably in oil) came from assumptions of growth that never actually materialized.
Last week’s EIA report did not show especially strong consumption. Last week’s reported drawdown came in 20 bcf less than had been expected, 100 bcf less than the drawdown seen a year ago and almost that much less than the five-year average for the week. It increased the surplus against the five-year average from 6 bcf and 0.23% below the average to 87 bcf and 3.57% above the average. Against a year ago, the surplus jumped from 22 bcf (0.85%) more to 120 bcf and a full 5.00% more. The promise offered by the previous report’s return to historical levels was set back in a major way last week.
The early buying on Friday had also been augmented by the imminent arrival of bitterly cold temperatures in the Northeast over the weekend. But, as with the GDP numbers, traders started to get more depressed by the future outlooks than buoyed by the near-term implications. The fourth quarter rise in GDP was seen as a one-time deal unlikely to be repeated in coming quarters; and the cold weather is expected to be replaced by more moderate readings as we move through this week.
Traders also sought to place in perspective an EIA report that showed monthly natural gas production up 0.2% to 63.13 bcf/day (in the lower 48 states) in November. At the same time, output is down 0.4% from its peak in August, 2008, when the rig count was approaching its high point. Traders are wondering whether lost rigs have shown up in the statistics for November – or will at all – given more efficient production methods and recent increases in the rig count. The latest Baker Hughes report showed a rise of 28 rigs to 861; the peak was 1606 in August, 2008.
In cash trading on Friday, Henry Hub prices were at $5.18-$5.34, down 0.00-$0.04 on the day (DJN). SoCal prices were at $5.35-$5.47, up $0.01 and down $0.03 on the day. El Paso Permian prices were down $0.05-$0.07 to $5.11-$5.22. Katy prices were down $0.02 and up $0.02 to $5.12-$5.23. Waha prices were down $0.04-$0.09 at $5.15-$5.21. Transco 6 was down $1.50-$6.00 at $7.00-$10.00/mmBtu, according to Dow Jones News (DJN).
Palo Verde prices were last quoted at $42.50-$44.00/mwh. Northeastern prices last traded at $51.25-$69.25. Entergy was last at $45.00-$46.50. Ercot was last at $42.00-$43.00/mwh.
Support is at $5.12-$5.14, $5.06-$5.08, $4.96-$4.99, $4.83-$4.85, $4.64-$4.66, $4.40-$4.43, $4.15-$4.17, $4.05-$4.08, $3.73-$3.75, $3.66-$3.68, $3.50-$3.53, $3.44-$3.46, $3.28-$3.32, $2.91-$2.93, $2.80-$2.82, $2.74-$2.75, and $2.69-$2.70. Resistance is at $5.25-$5.29, $5.48-$5.50, $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03, $6.09-$6.11, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37, $6.65-$6.69, $6.90-$6.94, $7.01-$7.04, $7.28-$7.31, and $7.34-$7.36.
Mar Natural Gas: Support: $5.12-$5.14, $5.06-$5.08, $4.96-$4.99, $4.83-$4.85, $4.64-$4.66, $4.40-$4.43.
Resistance: $5.25-$5.29, $5.48-$5.50, $5.71-$5.73, $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03, $6.09-$6.11.
Natural gas prices continued lower through the end of the week, and they settled below the trendline drawn from September’s lows.
Dollars per million Btu
Natural gas prices may return to the previous consolidation zone.
Dollars per million Btu
EIA Weekly Storage Figures
Last week’s EIA report showed a draw of 86 bcf on expectations for a draw of 104-108 bcf. Stocks are now 120 bcf higher than a year ago, against a surplus of 22 bcf a week ago, a surplus of 103 bcf two weeks ago and a surplus of 286 bcf three weeks ago. Stocks are now 5.00% higher than a year ago. They are 87 bcf and 3.57% above the five-year average.
For this week, the eight-year average (of similar Friday reports) was a draw of 169.88 bcf. The five-year average was a draw of 166.6 bcf. Last year’s draw was 195 bcf. This seems to offer another chance for the surpluses to grow, again.
EIA Report
| Region | 01-22-10 | 01-15-09 | Change | Last Year | 5 Yr Avg |
| Cons East | 1334 | 1401 | dn 67 | 1231 | 1348 |
| Cons West | 380 | 396 | dn 16 | 355 | 320 |
| Producing | 807 | 810 | dn 03 | 815 | 765 |
| Total US | 2521 | 2607 | dn 86 | 2401 | 2434 |
Bcf, or Billions of cubic feet. Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy
News & Views
| In trading on Nymex, March crude oil prices were down $0.25 at $72.64/barrel at 9.30 PM EST, last night. March heating oil prices were down 0.05 cents to 1.9125/gallon. March RBOB prices were down 0.64 cents to $1.9070. March natural gas prices were up $0.154 to $5.285/mmBtu. Follow-through technical selling, weaker equities and a firm US dollar were all factors in traders’ minds last night. There is still support beneath the markets, but last week’s selloff left oil prices in a poor technical position, along with equities. It will take something major for a turn. According to The Wall Street Journal Asia, onshore and offshore crude oil stocks have fallen in recent weeks, and the amount being stored at sea has fallen almost in half, according to shipping broker ICAP, the article said. That would place ship-board storage around 45 million barrels, down from a peak of 90 million barrels last April. The story went on to say that storage levels in the US, Europe and Japan are now in the middle of their five-year average ranges. 
Crude oil prices settled on Friday at their lowest level since December 21st. Prices had seemed to be ready to advance earlier in the day, but by afternoon the bulls had lost their way. | 
Heating oil prices finished down 1.62 cents on Friday, finishing at this market’s lowest level since October 12, 2009, just finishing below the settle of December 15th (190.33). DOE History: Distillate stocks have fallen in seven of the last eight years, by an average of 3.657 mln bbls. The eight-year average is a draw of 3.187 mln bbls. Gasoline stocks rose in five of the last eight years, for a five-year build of 2.260 mln bbls and an eight-year average build of 0.900 mln bbls. Crude oil stocks have been higher in five of the last eight years for a five-year average build of 5.100 mln bbls and it has an eight-year average build of 3.087 mln bbls. Utilization has been lower in five of the last eight years (dn 1.22%) and has an eight-year average decrease of 0.60%, and it has an eight-year average utilization figure of 86.40%. The four-year, pre-hurricane utilization average was 87.58%. Since Katrina, refineries have run at an average utilization rate of 85.22%. Crude oil imports have been higher in five of the last six years, and the average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been down 419,000 bpd. The average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been 10.060 million bpd. Imports were 2.193 million bpd below that average in last week’s report. That’s 21.8% lower. |
| Friday’s inability to hold onto gains was a bearish development. | |
Friday’s inability to hold onto early gains was a significant technical failure in this complex. For prices to move on from there to print new settlement lows since mid-December has to be seen as a major bearish development. As we move through February, there is a tendency for traders to start looking ahead to the end of winter – even though it has weeks left.
An Illustrated Look at Energy Market Factors
A Look at the US Dollar Versus the Euro
Dollar-Euro (dollar in euro cents): Three-Month Bar-Chart 
The US dollar was higher again on Friday, and it opened higher and finished higher, ending near the day’s high points. The release, on Friday, of the GDP numbers for the fourth quarter of 2009 showed growth of 5.7%, which was enough to help the dollar, oil and equities in its aftermath. By the end of the day, though, only the dollar was still higher on the day.
Source: http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forexqkchart&curcode1=USD&curcode2=EUR
A Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (djia)
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Six-Month Chart
The DJIA tried to move higher on Friday, and it succeeded in advancing during the early going on Friday, in response to the fourth quarter GDP figures. By the final bell, though, the key average was down 53.13 points.
Source: http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=djia&sid=1643&time=6mo&Submit1=Refresh
Recommendations for Specific Market Segments
Heating Oil Distributors Heating oil prices could not hold onto early gains on Friday – despite bitterly cold temperatures and a stronger-than-expected fourth quarter GDP figure. Prices had a chance to build on early strength, but failed to do so. That allowed prices to finish at their lowest settlement level since October 12th, after breaking their December low finish by three points. This may have been the session the bulls let “get away” from them. In the current environment, we are not sure what is going to happen that could give the bulls a better opportunity than they had on Friday. Obviously, this market can turn quickly, but the dearth of base-load demand has made it difficult for fundamental traders to get excited about the upside in this market. We are still holding capped-price programs as insurance against the unknown. We would not add to them here. Diesel Users We would hold capped-price protection here, without adding more. NYH Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…193.80-194.30 plus 2.750 USG Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…190.05-190.55 minus 1.000 Jet/Kerosene Users & Airlines New York Harbor cash market differentials were 3.75 to 4.00 cents over January heating oil in NY Harbor and 1.00 under to 0.50 under the screen in the US Gulf. Anything under 4 cents is worth hedging. Diesel & Gasoline Marketers We would keep product hedged against lower prices, with the trend clearly pointed lower. Gasoline Blenders & End-Users Until we see prices build some kind of price base, we should expect to see them under selling pressure. Prompt NYH Fuel Ethanol…..188.00-189.00 Prompt USG Fuel Ethanol….187.00-190.00 Quotes from 01-29-10 Heating Oil End-Users We would hold capped-price protection, but we are not keen to add to that protection here or now. Speculators We want to remain on the sidelines here. Refiners The 7:5+2 crack spread was $7.04 on Friday. Crude Oil Producers Crude oil prices finished the week at their lowest level since December 21st, in a clear trend lower. Prices had a chance to build on early gains, but could not hold those levels, which is a bad sign. | Prompt Jet Fuel Prices New York Harbor 195.05-195.30 US Gulf 190.30-190.80 Midwest (Group Three) 192.30-194.30 Midwest (Chicago) 185.30-189.30 Los Angeles 194.00-195.00 San Francisco 194.00-195.00 Portland, Oregon 194.00-195.00 Cents per gallon Propane Prices Mont Belvieu……….…..non-TET………$1.367810 Cents per gallon  Gasoline prices were lower again on Friday, after trying to move higher in the initial trading after release of the fourth quarter GDP figures. There is support down to 181.24, but prices finished at their lowest settlement level since December 22nd. Major support is further away than is the case in crude oil and gasoline, but prices seem to have lost the upward backbone that kept rallies moving through so much of 2009.
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→ Monthly Average Prices Follow →
Average Monthly Nymex Settlement Prices
Crude Oil
The Nymex average crude oil settlement price in January was the second highest for the month on record. This fact highlights the market’s traditional weakness during the month. This January was 87.02% higher than it had been in 2009, and it was 26.85% above the average for all of 2009. At the same time, it was 15.64% lower than the January average in 2008 and was 21.32% beneath the average for all of 2008.
Crude Oil in dollars per barrel
| Month | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | |
| Jan | $19.73 | $32.70 | $34.22 | $46.85 | $65.54 | $54.35 | $92.93 | $41.92 | $78.40 | |
| Feb | $20.76 | $35.73 | $34.50 | $48.05 | $61.93 | $59.39 | $95.35 | $39.26 | | |
| Mar | $24.55 | $33.16 | $36.72 | $54.92 | $62.97 | $60.74 | $105.42 | $48.06 | | |
| Apr | $26.26 | $28.14 | $36.62 | $53.22 | $70.16 | $64.04 | $112.43 | $49.95 | | |
| May | $26.95 | $28.07 | $40.28 | $49.87 | $70.96 | $63.53 | $125.46 | $59.21 | | |
| Jun | $25.55 | $30.52 | $38.05 | $56.42 | $70.99 | $67.53 | $134.02 | $69.70 | | |
| Jul | $26.94 | $30.70 | $40.78 | $59.07 | $74.46 | $74.15 | $133.48 | $64.29 | | |
| Aug | $28.20 | $31.60 | $44.88 | $64.99 | $73.09 | $72.36 | $116.69 | $71.14 | | |
| Sep | $29.67 | $28.31 | $45.94 | $65.47 | $63.90 | $79.63 | $103.76 | $69.47 | | |
| Oct | $28.86 | $30.35 | $53.09 | $62.27 | $59.14 | $85.66 | $76.72 | $75.82 | | |
| Nov | $26.19 | $31.06 | $48.48 | $58.34 | $59.40 | $94.63 | $57.44 | $78.15 | | |
| Dec | $29.39 | $32.14 | $43.26 | | | $91.87 | $42.04 | $74.60 | | |
| Open Interest | 580,793 | 600,240 | 662,484 | | | 1,361,258 | 1,189,046 | 1,193,065 | | |
| Year | $26.09 | $31.04 | $41.40 | | | $72.41 | $99.65 | $61.80 | | |
Open interest is for the final trading day of the year above.
Dollars per barrel
Heating Oil
The Nymex heating oil monthly average settlement price for January was the second highest for the month on record. It was very close to being halfway between the high seen in 2008 and the low number seen in 2009, coming in 19.54% below 2008 and 40.63% above 2009. Despite being lower than in 2008, this past January average was more than double what it was in 2003 and 2004, and was nearly four times what it had been in 2002.
Heating Oil in cents per gallon
| Month | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | |
| Jan | 53.75 | 90.64 | 98.56 | 132.39 | 178.71 | 154.68 | 256.13 | 146.55 | 206.09 | |
| Feb | 54.48 | 107.42 | 91.28 | 133.92 | 168.66 | 169.58 | 265.04 | 127.52 | | |
| Mar | 63.92 | 91.62 | 91.18 | 154.34 | 177.92 | 174.15 | 300.98 | 129.28 | | |
| Apr | 66.94 | 74.70 | 92.19 | 151.54 | 197.87 | 186.20 | 318.74 | 137.58 | | |
| May | 66.83 | 72.69 | 101.54 | 141.09 | 198.60 | 188.03 | 361.65 | 150.29 | | |
| Jun | 65.01 | 76.17 | 99.96 | 162.01 | 196.92 | 199.05 | 381.20 | 178.80 | | |
| Jul | 68.44 | 78.83 | 110.05 | 166.60 | 199.51 | 207.90 | 378.16 | 166.27 | | |
| Aug | 71.44 | 82.37 | 118.24 | 183.27 | 203.46 | 199.75 | 319.08 | 188.50 | | |
| Sep | 78.53 | 74.53 | 126.34 | 200.02 | 175.42 | 219.88 | 293.18 | 175.94 | | |
| Oct | 77.70 | 82.53 | 149.03 | 193.27 | 169.00 | 229.86 | 224.13 | 195.52 | | |
| Nov | 71.96 | 84.33 | 139.91 | 172.85 | 169.89 | 260.05 | 185.11 | 202.05 | | |
| Dec | 82.51 | 90.11 | 129.88 | 174.63 | 172.64 | 257.88 | 142.12 | 199.77 | | |
| Year | 68.46 | 83.83 | 112.35 | 163.83 | 184.05 | 204.11 | 283.34 | 166.51 | | |
Cents per gallon
Gasoline
The January average Nymex gasoline (RBOB) settlement price was the second highest for the month on record. It was 13.41% lower than it had been in 2008, but it was 77.77% more than it was in 2009. Americans spent $11.094 billion more on gasoline in January, 2010 than they did in January, 2009.
For all of 2009, Americans spent $116.596 billion less on gasoline than they had a year earlier. That represents a fairly large tax rebate to consumers. Of course, had prices stayed where they had been in January, 2009, the savings would have been nearly $195 billion over the course of the year.
This past January was nearly 36 cents a gallon more than the average price for all of 2009, and it represents new hardships for American consumers and businesses. At the January average price, consumers and businesses paid $4.440 billion more during the month than would have been the case had prices stayed at the 2009 average.
Gasoline in cents per gallon
| Month | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | |
| Jan | 57.52 | 90.58 | 99.61 | 125.87 | 175.69 | 144.47 | 236.20 | 115.05 | 204.52 | |
| Feb | 58.91 | 101.89 | 102.46 | 126.86 | 152.89 | 164.79 | 243.35 | 118.48 | | |
| Mar | 78.71 | 101.37 | 112.28 | 154.17 | 179.24 | 195.59 | 265.88 | 138.86 | | |
| Apr | 81.28 | 86.48 | 115.69 | 158.28 | 208.60 | 216.49 | 288.23 | 144.29 | | |
| May | 78.49 | 84.12 | 137.85 | 145.18 | 208.57 | 230.13 | 322.36 | 173.61 | | |
| Jun | 76.66 | 86.67 | 119.14 | 158.32 | 212.23 | 222.63 | 342.52 | 195.48 | | |
| Jul | 81.32 | 90.60 | 127.88 | 171.54 | 226.29 | 219.24 | 328.37 | 179.79 | | |
| Aug | 78.73 | 100.25 | 124.71 | 194.60 | 201.36 | 198.32 | 294.04 | 201.81 | | |
| Sep | 79.88 | 84.60 | 126.07 | 206.54 | 156.01 | 204.01 | 262.63 | 175.87 | | |
| Oct | 82.77 | 84.48 | 138.01 | 174.59 | 149.20 | 212.71 | 178.76 | 190.35 | | |
| Nov | 71.81 | 84.84 | 127.45 | 150.33 | 157.80 | 238.57 | 123.80 | 197.59 | | |
| Dec | 83.38 | 88.80 | 112.19 | 159.03 | 163.87 | 234.53 | 96.67 | 193.32 | | |
| Year | 75.79 | 90.39 | 120.28 | 160.44 | 182.65 | 207.27 | 248.57 | 168.71 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Cents per gallon
Natural Gas
The average Nymex natural gas price for January was $1.436/million Btu higher than the average price for all of 2009, and it was higher than any monthly average since December, 2008. In terms of other January averages, three were lower and four were higher. This January average was 52.8 cents, or 10.41% higher than the average seen in January, 2009. It was 38.71% below the high January average in 2006, and was 2.55 times the low average seen in 2002.
Natural Gas in dollars per million Btu (British thermal units)
| Month | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | |
| Jan | $2.191 | $5.381 | $6.273 | $6.186 | $9.136 | $6.800 | $7.991 | $5.071 | $5.599 | |
| Feb | $2.270 | $6.658 | $5.363 | $5.050 | $7.521 | $7.547 | $8.642 | $4.372 | | |
| Mar | $3.014 | $5.786 | $5.543 | $7.048 | $6.979 | $7.222 | $9.624 | $4.002 | | |
| Apr | $3.410 | $5.359 | $5.747 | $7.151 | $7.264 | $7.629 | $10.288 | $3.561 | | |
| May | $3.564 | $5.927 | $6.357 | $6.486 | $6.373 | $7.832 | $11.381 | $3.939 | | |
| Jun | $3.259 | $5.926 | $6.331 | $7.207 | $6.398 | $7.504 | $12.785 | $3.937 | | |
| Jul | $2.942 | $5.034 | $6.057 | $7.579 | $6.222 | $6.399 | $11.068 | $3.551 | | |
| Aug | $3.092 | $4.981 | $5.472 | $9.428 | $6.988 | $6.137 | $8.301 | $3.306 | | |
| Sep | $3.570 | $4.667 | $5.220 | $12.111 | $5.219 | $6.189 | $7.486 | $3.460 | | |
| Oct | $4.099 | $4.976 | $7.371 | $13.479 | $6.630 | $7.224 | $6.729 | $4.780 | | |
| Nov | $4.040 | $4.778 | $7.609 | $11.696 | $8.000 | $7.778 | $6.699 | $4.629 | | |
| Dec | $4.838 | $6.463 | $6.828 | $13.425 | $7.160 | $7.179 | $5.788 | $5.345 | | |
| Year | $3.357 | $5.495 | $6.181 | $8.904 | $6.991 | $7.118 | $8.899 | $4.163 | | |
Copyright Cameron Hanover, 2010
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