Prices for February 1st, 2010
| HEATING OIL cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | MAR | 196.98 | 190.85 | 195.49 | up 04.19 | | APR | 197.48 | 191.76 | 196.05 | up 04.11 | | MAY | 198.05 | 192.41 | 196.69 | up 04.02 | | JUN | 199.14 | 193.15 | 197.72 | up 04.03 | | JUL | 199.80 | 195.99 | 199.58 | up 03.98 | | AUG | 202.58 | 199.20 | 201.62 | up 03.94 | | SEP | 205.00 | 201.58 | 203.90 | up 03.89 | | OCT | 206.70 | 203.50 | 206.40 | up 03.89 | | NOV | 208.20 | 206.83 | 208.83 | up 03.89 | | DEC | 211.09 | 207.10 | 211.26 | up 03.89 | | JAN | 212.41 | 211.29 | 213.64 | up 03.84 | | FEB | ---.-- | ---.-- | ---.-- | -- --.-- | | Estimated Volume (day before) total all prev day 80,285 | | NYMEX CRUDE OIL dollars per barrel | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | MAR | 74.99 | 72.49 | 74.43 | up 01.54 | | APR | 75.44 | 72.96 | 74.91 | up 01.56 | | MAY | 76.08 | 73.61 | 75.52 | up 01.57 | | JUN | 76.65 | 74.19 | 76.11 | up 01.58 | | JUL | 77.10 | 74.79 | 76.66 | up 01.58 | | AUG | 77.65 | 75.46 | 77.17 | up 01.59 | | | | | | | | | Estimated Volume… 530,099 Opec Basket…$71.01 dn $0.39
Prompt #2 Oil NYH 88..-1.50 to -1.00, 74 Lo S…+1.00 to +1.50
US Gulf 88 grade…-5.00 to -4.50, 74 grade Lo S…-3.50 to -3.00 Group .........-4.25 to -3.75 Lo S.....-4.25 to -3.75
Chicago ......-5.00 to -4.50 cash quotes by Dow Jones | | | |
| NYMEX RBOB GASOLINE cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | MAR | 194.75 | 189.73 | 193.21 | up 01.87 | | APR | 206.07 | 201.29 | 204.65 | up 02.53 | | MAY | 207.30 | 202.59 | 205.93 | up 02.77 | | JUN | 207.54 | 202.95 | 206.52 | up 02.94 | | JUL | 207.68 | 202.48 | 206.31 | up 02.96 | | AUG | 205.40 | 203.53 | 205.71 | up 03.02 | | SEP | 205.11 | 203.07 | 204.92 | up 03.11 | | OCT | 193.10 | 192.71 | 195.30 | up 03.22 | | Estimated RB Volume day before 92,522 | | NYMEX NATURAL GAS dollars per mmBtu | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | MAR | 5.450 | 5.236 | 5.434 | up 0.303 | | APR | 5.410 | 5.214 | 5.405 | up 0.285 | | MAY | 5.454 | 5.260 | 5.450 | up 0.279 | | JUN | 5.517 | 5.363 | 5.517 | up 0.275 | | | Estimated Volume…day before (151,967)
Nymex statistics are based on composite Access & Day Sessions
Prompt Gasoline NYH M5 -1.50 /-1.00 RBOB +3.50 /+4.00
US Gulf M4: -4.50 to -4.00 RBOB -0.25 to +0.75
L.A. Conv Reg 201.00-202.00, N-grade Group 186.20-186.70 Chi 186.20-186.70 | |
Market Review for Monday
ESTERDAY’S activity seemingly took us back to all the upside moves we had from March through autumn. Traders were talking about the economy picking up, investors were back in the markets shopping for risk and equities were higher, with the DJIA taking back 118.20 points. The dollar was also lower yesterday, and that helped oil prices, when it was thrown into the general, bullish mix. Later in the day, the dollar rallied in afternoon and in overnight trading, and the trend appears to be higher. Nonetheless, just about everything involving risk (everything but the dollar) was higher yesterday. It was bound to happen sooner or later.
Manufacturing activity was higher in the Institute of Supply Management figures released yesterday, with the index of activity rising to 58.4 in January, well above analyst expectations for a rise to 55.3. And, most significantly, the Commerce Department reported personal income up 0.4% in December with spending up 0.2%. The consumer has been the weak link.
| Fuel for Thought Despite a number of signs that the US consumer is still struggling, the Commerce Department reported yesterday that US consumer spending was up by 0.2%, registering the third consecutive monthly increase in recent reports. Wells Fargo felt upbeat enough about the figures to say, “Households appear to have set a course of moderate spending … “with an outlook for stronger growth through the year. While other parts of the economy have shown growth, employment and consumer spending have been acting as anchors on the economy. Any improvement in one should help the other, and could lead to a “boot-strapping” improvement of both, if some purchase can acquired … pun intended. |
On top of the positive economic news, the weaker dollar and the stronger DJIA, traders eyed developments in Nigeria with trepidation. Over the weekend, rebels from MEND, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, ended their ceasefire, and it did not take long for them to attack oil installations.
Shell reported yesterday that sabotage had forced the company to shut down three flow stations feeding the Forcados terminal in the Niger Delta. MEND claimed that its affiliates had been behind the attacks. This was later denied by Nigerian government military sources, which attributed the damage to common thieves and vandals looking to steal oil.
By this afternoon, traders are likely to turn their attention to the week’s supply & demand statistics, and there are several economic statistics slated for release this week, with unemployment on Friday standing out as the big one.
At this stage, yesterday’s rally looks like a corrective move after several days of movement lower. This week’s supply and demand figures will determine whether it can turn into more.
Technicals
Oil prices rallied well yesterday, and they are now trying to break over resistance levels or get back above trendlines that were pierced to the downside last week. Their ability to break these resistance levels will determine whether they have the upside momentum need to build on yesterday’s gains. Prices could fail and break lower again.
Cents per gallon
Above: Heating oil prices bounced back up yesterday, and are now just underneath the trendline they broke last week.
March crude oil now has buy-stops over $75.00-$75.10, $75.42, $76.50, $78.36, $79.31-$79.47, $80.67, $82.35, $83.95, $84.83, $85.13, $89.82, $90.99, $93.02, $96.03, and $100.37. Sell-stops are under $72.40, $71.99, $71.20, $70.55, $69.30, $68.55, $68.00, $65.80-$66.20, and $64.95. March heating oil has buy-stops over 197.00, 199.60, 203.51, 204.45, 205.50, 208.10, 210.91, 211.90, 217.55, 222.72, 225.80, 227.05, 229.08, 238.95, 249.62, and 251.50. Sell stops are under 190.85, 189.00, 188.70, 187.00, 186.50, 182.63, 177.00, 176.68, 173.75, 171.10, 170.35, and 168.60. March RBOB has buy-stops over 194.75, 196.50, 198.10, 200.45, 206.88-207.35, 208.30, 214.60, 219.27, 222.70, 228.86, 240.10, 250.40, 252.00, 265.10, 267.85, 270.85, 272.00, and 280.25. Sell-stops are under 189.70, 188.99, 185.00-185.15, 184.60, 182.40, 181.20, 179.20, 177.30, 175.14, 171.40, and 170.25.
Football: The bulls gained 15 yards on second and 17 yesterday, and that makes it third and two to go here, today.
Technical Support & Resistance
Mar crude oil Support: $72.40-$72.55, $71.95-$72.05, $71.20-$71.30, $70.55-$70.65, $69.30-$69.45.
Resistance: $74.85-$75.00, $75.00-$75.10, $75.35-$75.42, $76.35-$76.50, $78.25-$78.36.
Mar heating oil Support: 190.85-191.00, 189.00-189.15, 188.70-188.85, 187.00-187.20, 186.50-186.65.
Resistance: 196.80-197.00, 199.45-199.60, 203.40-203.51, 204.35-204.45, 205.35-205.50.
Mar Rbob Support: 189.70-189.85, 188.95-189.10, 185.00-185.15, 184.60-184.75, 182.40-182.55.
Resistance: 194.60-194.75, 196.30-196.50, 197.90-198.10, 200.30-200.45, 206.25-206.35.
Oil Inventory Reports
This week’s DOE report has shown some very large builds in crude oil stocks over the years, and three of the last eight years have shown builds of more than 7 million barrels. Distillate stocks have had some rather large draws in this week’s reports, and three years had draws of 1.4 to 1.6 million barrels while three other years had draws of 3.7 million, 6.8 million and 10.3 million barrels. Three of the last four builds in gasoline stocks have shown increases of 2.6 to 4.3 million barrels. Utilization has declined more often than it has risen this week, with four increases coming in between 1.2% and 1.6%.
Last Week’s Inventory Comparison: Distillate stocks are now 13.2 million bbls, or 9.15%, higher than a year ago. Heating oil inventories are 2.3 mln bbls, or 5.91%, higher than they were a year ago. Gasoline stocks are 13.0 mln bbls (up 6.01%) higher against a year ago. Crude oil stocks are now 17.5 million bbls, or 5.08%, lower than a year ago. Residual stocks are 2.2 mln bbls (6.18%) higher than a year ago, jet fuel stocks are 4.0 mln bbls, (10.08%) higher than a year ago. Utilization is 4.00% lower than a year ago and 8.50% below the eight-year average. It is 10.10% lower than the four-year, pre-Katrina average and 6.90% below the average of the four years since the big hurricanes (Katrina & Rita) in 2005.
Last Week’s Demand: Four-week, total refined products demand came in at 18.753 million bpd, down 0.045 mln bbls on the week, and down 0.376 mln bpd and 1.97% against a year ago. Three weeks ago, it was 0.050 mln bpd and 0.26% higher than a year ago. Four-week gasoline demand is at 8.676 mln bpd, down 0.23%, compared to up 0.32% three weeks ago. It fell 113,000 bpd on the week. Four-week distillate demand is now at 3.677 mln bpd, down 8.12%, compared to down 0.98% three weeks ago. Four-week jet demand is now at 1.388 mln bpd, up 1.53% against a year ago, compared to up 8.17% three weeks ago. Four-week residual fuel demand is at 0.490 mln bpd, down 31.28%, compared to down 1.19% 10 weeks ago. Propane use is up 18.18%, at 1.596 mln bpd.
Last Week’s API Report: This week’s API report showed a draw of 2.225 mln bbls in crude oil stocks, a draw of 1.978 mln bbls in distillate stocks and a build of 0.916 mln bbls in gasoline inventories. Utilization was up 0.3% to 77.6%. Implied demand came in at 8.859 mln bpd in gasoline and at 4.468 mln bpd in distillate. Crude oil imports were down 1.487 mln bpd to 8.313 mln bpd. The drawdown in crude oil stocks was unexpected, but came on much lower imports and higher utilization.
DOE Weekly Inventory Statistics
| Category | Final DOE Estimate
This Week’s Estimate | History
Last Year’s Report | Most Recent Changes
Last Week’s DOE Report | Versus A Year Ago
Millions of Barrels |
| Distillate | dn 1.75 to 2.25 mln bbls | dn 1.400 | up 0.400 mln bbls | up 13.200 |
| Gasoline | up 1.75 to 2.25 | up 0.300 | up 2.000 | up 13.000 |
| Crude oil | up 3.50 to 4.50 | up 7.200 | dn 3.900 | dn 17.500 |
| Utilization | dn 0.3% to 0.8% | up 1.0% at 83.5% | up 0.10% at 78.50% | |
| Crude Imports | up 0.250 to 0.750 mmbd | up 0.329 to 10.037 | dn 0.673 to 7.867 mln bpd | |
| DOE Distillate Demand | 3.725 mln bpd | dn 098,000 | Gasoline Demand | 8.619 mln bpd | up 017,000 |
| DOE Distillate Production | 3.516 mln bpd | up 033,000 | Gasoline Production | 8.636 mln bpd | up 071,000 |
| DOE Distillate Imports | 0.658 mln bpd | up 386,000 | Gasoline Imports | 0.823 mln bpd | up 093,000 |
Source: US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration
Open Interest Analysis
Crude oil open interest grew by 4,004 contracts on Friday, when prices were lower. That looks like good, new selling, on balance, and is bearish.
Heating oil open interest fell by 3,793 contracts on Friday, when prices were lower. That looks like long liquidation and would be supportive. This seems to have been liquidation ahead of Friday’s expiration.
RBOB open interest fell by 2,499 contracts on Friday when prices were lower. That looks like long liquidation and suggests that the longs that bought earlier in the month have been liquidating holdings. February contracts expired on Friday.
Natural gas open interest grew by 5,040 on Friday, when prices were lower. That looks like fairly heavy new selling, which would be bearish.
Friday’s Open Interest Changes:
Crude 1,319,629 up 4,004 Heat 307,093 dn 3,793 RBOB 247,511 dn 2,499 Nat gas 776,283 up 5,040
CFTC Commitments of Traders for Nymex (for the period ended Tuesday, Jan 26th)
Crude oil prices dropped $4.61bbl over the latest reporting period, and the best selling came from the “other reportables” category, which liquidated 7,251 existing longs. They also covered 1,113 old shorts. Producers covered 7,289 shorts and liquidated 348 longs. Managed Money bought 1,630 new longs and covered 1,688 shorts while Swap Dealers bought 79 new longs and sold 1,897 new shorts. Managed Money and Swap Dealers still hold the largest net long positions.
In heating oil futures, prices dropped 9.46 cents a gallon, and the best net selling came from Managed Money accounts. They liquidated 6,647 longs and added 6,189 new shorts. Everyone else was a net buyer, with producers buying 5,130 longs and covering 2,209 shorts, swap dealers adding 4,233 longs and covering 104 shorts, and other reportables buying 1,994 longs and selling 499 new short contracts. Managed Money sold and liquidated almost equally and their selling pressed quotes down.
Gasoline prices dropped 9.17 cents a gallon during the period under review. Managed money liquidated 14,698 longs and covered 3,008 shorts. Producers added 1,479 new longs and covered 9,120 shorts. Swap dealers added 2,738 new longs and covered 330 shorts. Other reportables liquidated 160 longs and covered 1,143 shorts. Fund liquidation was the motive force.
In natural gas, prices dropped 7.2 cents during the period under review. Producers liquidated 9,336 longs and covered 5,715 shorts. Swap dealers liquidated 4,168 longs and added 100 shorts, while other reportables liquidated 1,331 longs and covered 5,630 shorts. Managed Money accounts added 1,243 longs and covered 626 shorts. Producer liquidation moved quotes most.
Natural Gas & Utility Generation
Natural gas prices rallied more than 30 cents yesterday as traders latched onto a number of bullish factors to start the new week. The bigger-than-expected increase in the manufacturer’s index helped to give traders a sense that industrial demand could be returning to this market. Traders were also reacting to bitterly cold Arctic temperatures in the Northeast, which were keeping boilers running in homes, schools, factories and municipal buildings. And as traders got a taste of the skin-feel these readings brought, forecasters were predicting more of these temperatures – throughout the Midwest and Northeast – in the weeks to come.
As we have seen and noted here repeatedly before, weather is to natural gas what location is to housing or home sales. It has the ability to trump everything else, and weather was clearly at the heart of yesterday’s advance. The National Weather Service (NWS) had been holding the line at the end of last week, with its forecasts calling for more moderate readings. Yesterday, their forecasts took a marked turn towards colder readings in an important revision of their outlook.
The new weather outlook from the NWS, for most of the continental United States, was revised colder, with expectations now predicting colder-than-normal readings across most of the country into the middle of this month. Traders are likely to continue monitoring these forecasts, augmenting them with private predictions all week long. Private forecasts were suggesting that we could experience colder-than-normal readings into the middle of the month, with the coldest departures from normal being felt in the southeastern states from February 11-15, according to one service quoted by Dow Jones.
Technically, prices bounced back up to test the trendline that had been broken to the downside last week. How it reacts from here will determine if this is just the dreaded return to the line (before falling further) or something with real legs that can keep prices walking higher. The bulls are going to need both technicals and temperatures on their side if they are going to have any chance of pushing quotes back up this week, with last year’s draw and the average of previous years having been so high. We are unlikely to find support in this week’s EIA storage figures.
In cash trading yesterday, Henry Hub prices were at $5.26-$5.39, up 0.05-$0.08 on the day (DJN). SoCal prices were at $5.44-$5.49, up $0.02-$0.09 on the day. El Paso Permian prices were up $0.06-$0.09 to $5.20-$5.28. Katy prices were down $0.02 and up $0.02 to $5.12-$5.23. Waha prices were down $0.04-$0.09 at $5.15-$5.21. Transco 6 was down $0.75-$2.75 at $6.25-$7.25/mmBtu, according to Dow Jones News (DJN).
Palo Verde prices were last quoted at $44.00-$47.25/mwh. Northeastern prices last traded at $45.00-$56.75. Entergy was last at $42.75-$43.25. Ercot was last at $41.50-$42.50/mwh.
Support is at $5.23-$5.25, $5.12-$5.14, $5.06-$5.08, $4.96-$4.99, $4.83-$4.85, $4.64-$4.66, $4.40-$4.43, $4.15-$4.17, $4.05-$4.08, $3.73-$3.75, $3.66-$3.68, $3.50-$3.53, $3.44-$3.46, $3.28-$3.32, $2.91-$2.93, $2.80-$2.82, $2.74-$2.75, and $2.69-$2.70. Resistance is at $5.45-$5.50, $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03, $6.09-$6.11, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37, $6.65-$6.69, $6.90-$6.94, $7.01-$7.04, $7.28-$7.31, and $7.34-$7.36.
Mar Natural Gas: Support: $5.23-$5.25, $5.12-$5.14, $5.06-$5.08, $4.96-$4.99, $4.83-$4.85, $4.64-$4.66.
Resistance: $5.45-$5.50, $5.71-$5.73, $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03, $6.09-$6.11, $6.15-$6.17.
Natural gas prices rallied yesterday and now seem ready to press up against the trendline broken last week.
Dollars per million Btu
Natural gas prices may still need to return to the previous consolidation zone, if they cannot break higher here..
Dollars per million Btu
EIA Weekly Storage Figures
Last week’s EIA report showed a draw of 86 bcf on expectations for a draw of 104-108 bcf. Stocks are now 120 bcf higher than a year ago, against a surplus of 22 bcf a week ago, a surplus of 103 bcf two weeks ago and a surplus of 286 bcf three weeks ago. Stocks are now 5.00% higher than a year ago. They are 87 bcf and 3.57% above the five-year average.
For this week, the eight-year average (of similar Friday reports) was a draw of 169.88 bcf. The five-year average was a draw of 166.6 bcf. Last year’s draw was 195 bcf. This seems to offer another chance for the surpluses to grow, again.
EIA Report
| Region | 01-22-10 | 01-15-09 | Change | Last Year | 5 Yr Avg |
| Cons East | 1334 | 1401 | dn 67 | 1231 | 1348 |
| Cons West | 380 | 396 | dn 16 | 355 | 320 |
| Producing | 807 | 810 | dn 03 | 815 | 765 |
| Total US | 2521 | 2607 | dn 86 | 2401 | 2434 |
Bcf, or Billions of cubic feet. Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy
News & Views
| In trading on Nymex, March crude oil prices were up $0.70 at $75.13/barrel at 8.30 AM EST, this morning. March heating oil prices were up 1.50 cents to 1.9699/gallon. March RBOB prices were up 1.36 cents to $1.9457. March natural gas prices were up $0.046 to $5.480/mmBtu. The sense that the economy is improving, along with stronger equities levels, was helping out this morning. Oil prices will be influenced by expectations for this week’s reports later today. DOE Expectations The table below lists the first survey results for Dow Jones, Bloomberg and Reuters. The DOE report will be released at 10:30 AM EDT on Wednesday morning this week. Category Dow Jones Bloomberg Reuters Crude up 0.400 up 0.400 dn 0.200 mln bbls Distillate dn 0.700 dn 1.150 dn 0.900 Gasoline up 1.000 up 1.250 up 1.300 Utilization dn 0.1% dn 0.0% dn 0.0% 
Crude oil prices rallied yesterday, and they now seem to have built important support in the $72.40-$72.65 zone. They need to break $75.26 to suggest higher prices. | 
Heating oil prices seem to have found support between 189.00 and 189.60 yesterday, and they need to settle above 197.00 near-term to keep upward momentum going. DOE History: Distillate stocks have fallen in seven of the last eight years, by an average of 3.657 mln bbls. The eight-year average is a draw of 3.187 mln bbls. Gasoline stocks rose in five of the last eight years, for a five-year build of 2.260 mln bbls and an eight-year average build of 0.900 mln bbls. Crude oil stocks have been higher in five of the last eight years for a five-year average build of 5.100 mln bbls and it has an eight-year average build of 3.087 mln bbls. Utilization has been lower in five of the last eight years (dn 1.22%) and has an eight-year average decrease of 0.60%, and it has an eight-year average utilization figure of 86.40%. The four-year, pre-hurricane utilization average was 87.58%. Since Katrina, refineries have run at an average utilization rate of 85.22%. Crude oil imports have been higher in five of the last six years, and the average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been down 419,000 bpd. The average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been 10.060 million bpd. Imports were 2.193 million bpd below that average in last week’s report. That’s 21.8% lower. |
| Prices made significant gains yesterday. | |
Traders seem to have gotten over Friday’s failure to build on the GDP numbers, and it may just take further evidence of economic recovery to help prices stabilize. This week’s weekly reports will be the next big factors.
An Illustrated Look at Energy Market Factors
A Look at the US Dollar Versus the Euro
Dollar-Euro (dollar in euro cents): Three-Month Bar-Chart 
The US dollar was lower through most of yesterday’s session, although we had buyers return in trading yesterday afternoon and into the evening. The trend is still higher and we have swing objectives to the 72.80-73.00 area. Yesterday’s weakness seems to have helped oil prices.
Source: http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forexqkchart&curcode1=USD&curcode2=EUR
A Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (djia)
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Six-Month Chart
The DJIA was up 118.20 points yesterday, and investors were out in force looking for risk. At the heart of yesterday’s gains we had stronger economic news.
Source: http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=djia&sid=1643&time=6mo&Submit1=Refresh
Recommendations for Specific Market Segments
Heating Oil Distributors Heating oil prices followed Friday’s extremely weak performance with a fairly strong one yesterday, proving that this market can still baffle the best of us. After Friday’s failure to build on early strength, yesterday’s rally came as a surprise. Technically, though, all that happened was that prices rallied back to the trendline that they had broken beneath last week. There are numerous examples of prices rallying back to trendlines and then turning back down again, so we would be cautious with the long side. We are also in February, which is not the best time to buy in this market, typically. Early March is, though (more on that soon). We are still holding capped-price programs as insurance against the unknown. We would not add to them here. Diesel Users We would hold capped-price protection here, without adding more. NYH Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…198.25-198.75 plus 3.000 USG Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…193.30-193.75 minus 2.000 Jet/Kerosene Users & Airlines New York Harbor cash market differentials were 3.00 to 3.50 cents over January heating oil in NY Harbor and 2.00 under to 1.50 under the screen in the US Gulf. Anything under 4 cents is worth hedging. Diesel & Gasoline Marketers We would keep product hedged against lower prices, with the trend clearly pointed lower. Gasoline Blenders & End-Users Until we see prices build some kind of price base, we should expect to see them under selling pressure. Prompt NYH Fuel Ethanol…..189.00-193.00 Prompt USG Fuel Ethanol….179.00-183.00 Quotes from 02-01-10 Heating Oil End-Users We would hold capped-price protection, but we are not keen to add to that protection here or now. Speculators We want to remain on the sidelines here. Refiners The 7:5+2 crack spread was $6.99 yesterday. Crude Oil Producers Crude oil prices managed to rally yesterday, but we are not sure that prices have that much left in them on the upside. | Prompt Jet Fuel Prices New York Harbor 198.50-199.00 US Gulf 193.50-194.00 Midwest (Group Three) 197.50-199.50 Midwest (Chicago) 191.50-195.50 Los Angeles 188.00-189.00 San Francisco 188.00-189.00 Portland, Oregon 188.00-189.00 Cents per gallon Propane Prices Mont Belvieu……….…..non-TET………$1.351250 Cents per gallon  Gasoline prices have found support in the 188.99-190.00 area, and it now remains to be seen if prices can build any momentum on the upside. Yesterday’s advance represented a good first attempt to generate upside movement.
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→ Monthly Average Prices Follow →
Average Monthly Nymex Settlement Prices
Crude Oil
The Nymex average crude oil settlement price in January was the second highest for the month on record. This fact highlights the market’s traditional weakness during the month. This January was 87.02% higher than it had been in 2009, and it was 26.85% above the average for all of 2009. At the same time, it was 15.64% lower than the January average in 2008 and was 21.32% beneath the average for all of 2008.
Crude Oil in dollars per barrel
| Month | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | |
| Jan | $19.73 | $32.70 | $34.22 | $46.85 | $65.54 | $54.35 | $92.93 | $41.92 | $78.40 | |
| Feb | $20.76 | $35.73 | $34.50 | $48.05 | $61.93 | $59.39 | $95.35 | $39.26 | | |
| Mar | $24.55 | $33.16 | $36.72 | $54.92 | $62.97 | $60.74 | $105.42 | $48.06 | | |
| Apr | $26.26 | $28.14 | $36.62 | $53.22 | $70.16 | $64.04 | $112.43 | $49.95 | | |
| May | $26.95 | $28.07 | $40.28 | $49.87 | $70.96 | $63.53 | $125.46 | $59.21 | | |
| Jun | $25.55 | $30.52 | $38.05 | $56.42 | $70.99 | $67.53 | $134.02 | $69.70 | | |
| Jul | $26.94 | $30.70 | $40.78 | $59.07 | $74.46 | $74.15 | $133.48 | $64.29 | | |
| Aug | $28.20 | $31.60 | $44.88 | $64.99 | $73.09 | $72.36 | $116.69 | $71.14 | | |
| Sep | $29.67 | $28.31 | $45.94 | $65.47 | $63.90 | $79.63 | $103.76 | $69.47 | | |
| Oct | $28.86 | $30.35 | $53.09 | $62.27 | $59.14 | $85.66 | $76.72 | $75.82 | | |
| Nov | $26.19 | $31.06 | $48.48 | $58.34 | $59.40 | $94.63 | $57.44 | $78.15 | | |
| Dec | $29.39 | $32.14 | $43.26 | | | $91.87 | $42.04 | $74.60 | | |
| Open Interest | 580,793 | 600,240 | 662,484 | | | 1,361,258 | 1,189,046 | 1,193,065 | | |
| Year | $26.09 | $31.04 | $41.40 | | | $72.41 | $99.65 | $61.80 | | |
Open interest is for the final trading day of the year above.
Dollars per barrel
Heating Oil
The Nymex heating oil monthly average settlement price for January was the second highest for the month on record. It was very close to being halfway between the high seen in 2008 and the low number seen in 2009, coming in 19.54% below 2008 and 40.63% above 2009. Despite being lower than in 2008, this past January average was more than double what it was in 2003 and 2004, and was nearly four times what it had been in 2002.
Heating Oil in cents per gallon
| Month | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | |
| Jan | 53.75 | 90.64 | 98.56 | 132.39 | 178.71 | 154.68 | 256.13 | 146.55 | 206.09 | |
| Feb | 54.48 | 107.42 | 91.28 | 133.92 | 168.66 | 169.58 | 265.04 | 127.52 | | |
| Mar | 63.92 | 91.62 | 91.18 | 154.34 | 177.92 | 174.15 | 300.98 | 129.28 | | |
| Apr | 66.94 | 74.70 | 92.19 | 151.54 | 197.87 | 186.20 | 318.74 | 137.58 | | |
| May | 66.83 | 72.69 | 101.54 | 141.09 | 198.60 | 188.03 | 361.65 | 150.29 | | |
| Jun | 65.01 | 76.17 | 99.96 | 162.01 | 196.92 | 199.05 | 381.20 | 178.80 | | |
| Jul | 68.44 | 78.83 | 110.05 | 166.60 | 199.51 | 207.90 | 378.16 | 166.27 | | |
| Aug | 71.44 | 82.37 | 118.24 | 183.27 | 203.46 | 199.75 | 319.08 | 188.50 | | |
| Sep | 78.53 | 74.53 | 126.34 | 200.02 | 175.42 | 219.88 | 293.18 | 175.94 | | |
| Oct | 77.70 | 82.53 | 149.03 | 193.27 | 169.00 | 229.86 | 224.13 | 195.52 | | |
| Nov | 71.96 | 84.33 | 139.91 | 172.85 | 169.89 | 260.05 | 185.11 | 202.05 | | |
| Dec | 82.51 | 90.11 | 129.88 | 174.63 | 172.64 | 257.88 | 142.12 | 199.77 | | |
| Year | 68.46 | 83.83 | 112.35 | 163.83 | 184.05 | 204.11 | 283.34 | 166.51 | | |
Cents per gallon
Gasoline
The January average Nymex gasoline (RBOB) settlement price was the second highest for the month on record. It was 13.41% lower than it had been in 2008, but it was 77.77% more than it was in 2009. Americans spent $11.094 billion more on gasoline in January, 2010 than they did in January, 2009.
For all of 2009, Americans spent $116.596 billion less on gasoline than they had a year earlier. That represents a fairly large tax rebate to consumers. Of course, had prices stayed where they had been in January, 2009, the savings would have been nearly $195 billion over the course of the year.
This past January was nearly 36 cents a gallon more than the average price for all of 2009, and it represents new hardships for American consumers and businesses. At the January average price, consumers and businesses paid $4.440 billion more during the month than would have been the case had prices stayed at the 2009 average.
Gasoline in cents per gallon
| Month | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | |
| Jan | 57.52 | 90.58 | 99.61 | 125.87 | 175.69 | 144.47 | 236.20 | 115.05 | 204.52 | |
| Feb | 58.91 | 101.89 | 102.46 | 126.86 | 152.89 | 164.79 | 243.35 | 118.48 | | |
| Mar | 78.71 | 101.37 | 112.28 | 154.17 | 179.24 | 195.59 | 265.88 | 138.86 | | |
| Apr | 81.28 | 86.48 | 115.69 | 158.28 | 208.60 | 216.49 | 288.23 | 144.29 | | |
| May | 78.49 | 84.12 | 137.85 | 145.18 | 208.57 | 230.13 | 322.36 | 173.61 | | |
| Jun | 76.66 | 86.67 | 119.14 | 158.32 | 212.23 | 222.63 | 342.52 | 195.48 | | |
| Jul | 81.32 | 90.60 | 127.88 | 171.54 | 226.29 | 219.24 | 328.37 | 179.79 | | |
| Aug | 78.73 | 100.25 | 124.71 | 194.60 | 201.36 | 198.32 | 294.04 | 201.81 | | |
| Sep | 79.88 | 84.60 | 126.07 | 206.54 | 156.01 | 204.01 | 262.63 | 175.87 | | |
| Oct | 82.77 | 84.48 | 138.01 | 174.59 | 149.20 | 212.71 | 178.76 | 190.35 | | |
| Nov | 71.81 | 84.84 | 127.45 | 150.33 | 157.80 | 238.57 | 123.80 | 197.59 | | |
| Dec | 83.38 | 88.80 | 112.19 | 159.03 | 163.87 | 234.53 | 96.67 | 193.32 | | |
| Year | 75.79 | 90.39 | 120.28 | 160.44 | 182.65 | 207.27 | 248.57 | 168.71 | | |
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Cents per gallon
Natural Gas
The average Nymex natural gas price for January was $1.436/million Btu higher than the average price for all of 2009, and it was higher than any monthly average since December, 2008. In terms of other January averages, three were lower and four were higher. This January average was 52.8 cents, or 10.41% higher than the average seen in January, 2009. It was 38.71% below the high January average in 2006, and was 2.55 times the low average seen in 2002.
Natural Gas in dollars per million Btu (British thermal units)
| Month | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | |
| Jan | $2.191 | $5.381 | $6.273 | $6.186 | $9.136 | $6.800 | $7.991 | $5.071 | $5.599 | |
| Feb | $2.270 | $6.658 | $5.363 | $5.050 | $7.521 | $7.547 | $8.642 | $4.372 | | |
| Mar | $3.014 | $5.786 | $5.543 | $7.048 | $6.979 | $7.222 | $9.624 | $4.002 | | |
| Apr | $3.410 | $5.359 | $5.747 | $7.151 | $7.264 | $7.629 | $10.288 | $3.561 | | |
| May | $3.564 | $5.927 | $6.357 | $6.486 | $6.373 | $7.832 | $11.381 | $3.939 | | |
| Jun | $3.259 | $5.926 | $6.331 | $7.207 | $6.398 | $7.504 | $12.785 | $3.937 | | |
| Jul | $2.942 | $5.034 | $6.057 | $7.579 | $6.222 | $6.399 | $11.068 | $3.551 | | |
| Aug | $3.092 | $4.981 | $5.472 | $9.428 | $6.988 | $6.137 | $8.301 | $3.306 | | |
| Sep | $3.570 | $4.667 | $5.220 | $12.111 | $5.219 | $6.189 | $7.486 | $3.460 | | |
| Oct | $4.099 | $4.976 | $7.371 | $13.479 | $6.630 | $7.224 | $6.729 | $4.780 | | |
| Nov | $4.040 | $4.778 | $7.609 | $11.696 | $8.000 | $7.778 | $6.699 | $4.629 | | |
| Dec | $4.838 | $6.463 | $6.828 | $13.425 | $7.160 | $7.179 | $5.788 | $5.345 | | |
| Year | $3.357 | $5.495 | $6.181 | $8.904 | $6.991 | $7.118 | $8.899 | $4.163 | | |
Copyright Cameron Hanover, 2010
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