Prices for February 2nd, 2010
| HEATING OIL cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | MAR | 203.72 | 195.23 | 203.50 | up 08.01 | | APR | 204.30 | 196.16 | 204.15 | up 08.10 | | MAY | 204.97 | 196.82 | 204.70 | up 08.01 | | JUN | 205.86 | 197.53 | 205.74 | up 08.02 | | JUL | 207.10 | 207.10 | 207.10 | up 07.52 | | AUG | 208.99 | 208.99 | 208.99 | up 07.37 | | SEP | 211.15 | 205.08 | 211.24 | up 07.34 | | OCT | 213.71 | 213.71 | 213.71 | up 07.31 | | NOV | 216.09 | 216.09 | 216.09 | up 07.26 | | DEC | 218.47 | 218.47 | 218.47 | up 07.21 | | JAN | 220.84 | 220.84 | 220.84 | up 07.20 | | FEB | ---.-- | ---.-- | ---.-- | -- --.-- | | Estimated Volume (day before) total all prev day xx,xxx | | NYMEX CRUDE OIL dollars per barrel | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | MAR | 77.39 | 74.40 | 77.28 | up 02.85 | | APR | 77.86 | 74.88 | 77.76 | up 02.85 | | MAY | 78.47 | 75.50 | 78.38 | up 02.86 | | JUN | 79.04 | 76.12 | 78.95 | up 02.84 | | JUL | 79.48 | 76.69 | 79.44 | up 02.78 | | AUG | 79.95 | 77.31 | 79.95 | up 02.78 | | | | | | | | | Estimated Volume… 530,099 Opec Basket…$71.02 up $0.01
Prompt #2 Oil NYH 88..-1.40 to -1.00, 74 Lo S…+0.00 to +0.50
US Gulf 88 grade…-4.75 to -4.25, 74 grade Lo S…-3.75 to -3.25 Group .........-4.75 to -4.25 Lo S.....-4.75 to -4.25
Chicago ......-5.00 to -4.50 cash quotes by Dow Jones | | | |
| NYMEX RBOB GASOLINE cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | MAR | 202.31 | 193.16 | 202.16 | up 08/95 | | APR | 213.02 | 204.70 | 212.99 | up 08.34 | | MAY | 214.08 | 206.63 | 213.49 | up 07.56 | | JUN | 214.42 | 206.52 | 214.13 | up 07.61 | | JUL | 213.81 | 213.81 | 213.81 | up 07.50 | | AUG | 213.09 | 213.09 | 213.09 | up 07.38 | | SEP | 212.17 | 212.17 | 212.17 | up 07.25 | | OCT | 202.42 | 202.42 | 202.42 | up 07.12 | | Estimated RB Volume day before xx,xxx | | NYMEX NATURAL GAS dollars per mmBtu | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | MAR | 5.538 | 5.378 | 5.462 | up 0.028 | | APR | 5.505 | 5.357 | 5.449 | up 0.044 | | MAY | 5.547 | 5.408 | 5.492 | up 0.042 | | JUN | 5.611 | 5.480 | 5.569 | up 0.052 | | | Estimated Volume…day before (xxx,xxx)
Nymex statistics are based on composite Access & Day Sessions
Prompt Gasoline NYH M5 -1.00 /-0.75 RBOB +3.50 /+4.00
US Gulf M4: -4.25 to -3.75 RBOB -0.50 to +0.50
L.A. Conv Reg 210.00-211.00, N-grade Group 194.30-194.80 Chi 194.55-194.80 | |
Market Review for Tuesday
HE oil complex continued moving higher yesterday, with heavy buying pushing prices up dramatically in early trading. The stock market (equities) was higher, the euro was higher, and the outlook was decidedly more bullish for the economy. Temperature forecasts were predicting bitterly cold weather but, more than anything, it seems that there were large numbers of investors waiting for a reason to buy in this market, and yesterday’s combination of higher equities and higher currencies against the dollar provided the buyers with the trigger they had been waiting for.
From our perspective, it is hard to see how the Institute of Supply Management Index can succeed where Gross Domestic Product failed, but it is fully possible that we are looking at a more cumulative effect. In any event, it seems that traders have been significantly more willing to interpret statistics in a positive light this week than they were willing to last week. We are not sure we would imbue this week’s figures with any special motivational content.
| Fuel for Thought Investors seem to have rediscovered their appetite for risk over the last two days, but economists warn that this week’s employment report for January could make or break expectations for the economic recovery to stay on track. Today, ADP will release its early look at US employment, and estimates suggest it to show 30,000 jobs lost in January, compared to 84,000 jobs lost in December. This week’s figures have shown growth in US manufacturing and consumer spending power, but the real ‘proof of the pudding’ will come on Friday, when the Labor Department releases its report on jobs in January. Most economists feel that we need jobs growth to prevent GDP from posting smaller gains in the quarters ahead. |
It was a surprisingly bold position for traders to take yesterday, with this week’s supply and demand figures coming out last night and again this morning. It seems to us that a number of traders started to see oil prices as being oversold, which they were not really, and at prices susceptible to a rallying influence. Whatever their real motivation may have been, it is difficult to see in this week’s economic figures any rational reason for the strength of the rally over the last two days.
More than anything else, it seems to us that the index funds finally had two days running during which both equities were well higher and the dollar was lower. This was the one-two punch that allowed these funds to boss prices higher in 2009, and it had been missing since the start of January. It could just be that commercial traders have learned to avoid the oil markets on those days when equities rise and the dollar drops. Or investors could have been waiting for this combination before jumping back in. It seems that a number took profits in January, as oil prices dropped.
We have this week’s DOE report today, and may get a bullish read on it.
Technicals
Oil prices advanced steeply yesterday, and it is difficult, here, to tell whether we have had rallies in bear markets or a change in the near-term trend. We expect these next few days to tell us which one we have. Heating oil prices, shown below, have rallied back to the trendline they broke on the downside last week. It should offer resistance here.
Cents per gallon
Above: Heating oil prices have rallied back to the trendline broken early last week. They could go either way from here.
March crude oil now has buy-stops over $77.40, $78.36, $79.31-$79.47, $80.67, $82.35, $83.95, $84.83, $85.13, $89.82, $90.99, $93.02, $96.03, and $100.37. Sell-stops are under $74.40, $72.40, $71.99, $71.20, $70.55, $69.30, $68.55, $68.00, $65.80-$66.20, and $64.95. March heating oil has buy-stops over 203.75, 204.45, 205.50, 208.10, 210.91, 211.90, 217.55, 222.72, 225.80, 227.05, 229.08, 238.95, 249.62, and 251.50. Sell stops are under 195.00-195.20, 190.85, 189.00, 188.70, 187.00, 186.50, 182.63, 177.00, 176.68, 173.75, 171.10, 170.35, and 168.60. March RBOB has buy-stops over 202.31, 206.35, 206.88-207.35, 208.30, 214.60, 219.27, 222.70, 228.86, 240.10, 250.40, 252.00, 265.10, 267.85, 270.85, 272.00, and 280.25. Sell-stops are under 193.00-193.15, 189.70, 188.99, 185.00-185.15, 184.60, 182.40, 181.20, 179.20, 177.30, 175.14, 171.40, and 170.25.
Football: The bulls gained 28 yards on third and two, and that gets them another set of downs.
Technical Support & Resistance
Mar crude oil Support: $74.40-$74.55, $72.40-$72.55, $71.95-$72.05, $71.20-$71.30, $70.55-$70.65.
Resistance: $77.25-$77.40, $78.25-$78.36, $79.30-$79.50, $80.55-$80.70, $82.25-$82.35.
Mar heating oil Support: 195.00-195.25, 190.85-191.00, 189.00-189.15, 188.70-188.85, 187.00-187.20.
Resistance: 203.50-203.72, 204.35-204.45, 205.35-205.50, 208.00-208.10, 210.75-210.91.
Mar Rbob Support: 193.00-193.20, 189.70-189.85, 188.95-189.10, 185.00-185.15, 184.60-184.75.
Resistance: 202.20-202.35, 206.25-206.35, 206.90-207.35, 208.20-208.30, 214.45-214.60.
Oil Inventory Reports
This week’s DOE report has shown some very large builds in crude oil stocks over the years, and three of the last eight years have shown builds of more than 7 million barrels. Distillate stocks have had some rather large draws in this week’s reports, and three years had draws of 1.4 to 1.6 million barrels while three other years had draws of 3.7 million, 6.8 million and 10.3 million barrels. Three of the last four builds in gasoline stocks have shown increases of 2.6 to 4.3 million barrels. Utilization has declined more often than it has risen this week, with four increases coming in between 1.2% and 1.6%.
Last Week’s Inventory Comparison: Distillate stocks are now 13.2 million bbls, or 9.15%, higher than a year ago. Heating oil inventories are 2.3 mln bbls, or 5.91%, higher than they were a year ago. Gasoline stocks are 13.0 mln bbls (up 6.01%) higher against a year ago. Crude oil stocks are now 17.5 million bbls, or 5.08%, lower than a year ago. Residual stocks are 2.2 mln bbls (6.18%) higher than a year ago, jet fuel stocks are 4.0 mln bbls, (10.08%) higher than a year ago. Utilization is 4.00% lower than a year ago and 8.50% below the eight-year average. It is 10.10% lower than the four-year, pre-Katrina average and 6.90% below the average of the four years since the big hurricanes (Katrina & Rita) in 2005.
Last Week’s Demand: Four-week, total refined products demand came in at 18.753 million bpd, down 0.045 mln bbls on the week, and down 0.376 mln bpd and 1.97% against a year ago. Three weeks ago, it was 0.050 mln bpd and 0.26% higher than a year ago. Four-week gasoline demand is at 8.676 mln bpd, down 0.23%, compared to up 0.32% three weeks ago. It fell 113,000 bpd on the week. Four-week distillate demand is now at 3.677 mln bpd, down 8.12%, compared to down 0.98% three weeks ago. Four-week jet demand is now at 1.388 mln bpd, up 1.53% against a year ago, compared to up 8.17% three weeks ago. Four-week residual fuel demand is at 0.490 mln bpd, down 31.28%, compared to down 1.19% 10 weeks ago. Propane use is up 18.18%, at 1.596 mln bpd.
This Week’s API Report: This week’s API report showed a build of 4.723 mln bbls in crude oil stocks, a draw of 1.022 mln bbls in distillate stocks and a draw of 1.159 mln bbls in gasoline inventories. Utilization was up 0.4% to 78.0%. Implied demand came in at 9.196 mln bpd in gasoline and at 4.019 mln bpd in distillate. Crude oil imports were up 0.322 mln bpd to 8.471 mln bpd. Demand was pretty average, and we had a build in crude and draws in products in this report.
DOE Weekly Inventory Statistics
| Category | Final DOE Estimate
This Week’s Estimate | History
Last Year’s Report | Most Recent Changes
Last Week’s DOE Report | Versus A Year Ago
Millions of Barrels |
| Distillate | dn 1.75 to 2.25 mln bbls | dn 1.400 | up 0.400 mln bbls | up 13.200 |
| Gasoline | up 1.75 to 2.25 | up 0.300 | up 2.000 | up 13.000 |
| Crude oil | up 3.50 to 4.50 | up 7.200 | dn 3.900 | dn 17.500 |
| Utilization | dn 0.3% to 0.8% | up 1.0% at 83.5% | up 0.10% at 78.50% | |
| Crude Imports | up 0.250 to 0.750 mmbd | up 0.329 to 10.037 | dn 0.673 to 7.867 mln bpd | |
| DOE Distillate Demand | 3.725 mln bpd | dn 098,000 | Gasoline Demand | 8.619 mln bpd | up 017,000 |
| DOE Distillate Production | 3.516 mln bpd | up 033,000 | Gasoline Production | 8.636 mln bpd | up 071,000 |
| DOE Distillate Imports | 0.658 mln bpd | up 386,000 | Gasoline Imports | 0.823 mln bpd | up 093,000 |
Source: US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration
Open Interest Analysis
Crude oil open interest grew by 5,120 contracts on Monday, when prices were higher. That looks like good, new buying, on balance, and is supportive.
Heating oil open interest grew by 5,404 contracts on Monday, when prices were higher. That looks like new buying, which would be supportive.
RBOB open interest rose by 3,837 contracts on Monday when prices were higher. That looks like new buying, which is what we had across the board here on Monday, it seems.
Natural gas open interest grew by 5,831 on Monday, when prices were higher. That looks like decent, new buying and would be seen as being supportive.
Monday’s Open Interest Changes:
Crude 1,325,051 up 5,120 Heat 312,497 up 5,404 RBOB 251,348 up 3,837 Nat gas 782,119 up 5,831
CFTC Commitments of Traders for Nymex (for the period ended Tuesday, Jan 26th)
Crude oil prices dropped $4.61bbl over the latest reporting period, and the best selling came from the “other reportables” category, which liquidated 7,251 existing longs. They also covered 1,113 old shorts. Producers covered 7,289 shorts and liquidated 348 longs. Managed Money bought 1,630 new longs and covered 1,688 shorts while Swap Dealers bought 79 new longs and sold 1,897 new shorts. Managed Money and Swap Dealers still hold the largest net long positions.
In heating oil futures, prices dropped 9.46 cents a gallon, and the best net selling came from Managed Money accounts. They liquidated 6,647 longs and added 6,189 new shorts. Everyone else was a net buyer, with producers buying 5,130 longs and covering 2,209 shorts, swap dealers adding 4,233 longs and covering 104 shorts, and other reportables buying 1,994 longs and selling 499 new short contracts. Managed Money sold and liquidated almost equally and their selling pressed quotes down.
Gasoline prices dropped 9.17 cents a gallon during the period under review. Managed money liquidated 14,698 longs and covered 3,008 shorts. Producers added 1,479 new longs and covered 9,120 shorts. Swap dealers added 2,738 new longs and covered 330 shorts. Other reportables liquidated 160 longs and covered 1,143 shorts. Fund liquidation was the motive force.
In natural gas, prices dropped 7.2 cents during the period under review. Producers liquidated 9,336 longs and covered 5,715 shorts. Swap dealers liquidated 4,168 longs and added 100 shorts, while other reportables liquidated 1,331 longs and covered 5,630 shorts. Managed Money accounts added 1,243 longs and covered 626 shorts. Producer liquidation moved quotes most.
Natural Gas & Utility Generation
Natural gas prices were up 2.8 cents yesterday, as traders continued to focus on cold temperatures, but there was a clear feeling in the market that Monday’s session had succeeded in discounting colder temperatures for the most part. There was little change in thinking yesterday, and the market seemed to be telling us that it will need extended, sustained cold readings to move much higher. Even though the outlook right now is for colder readings, there are doubts about this week’s EIA underground storage report doing much to help. Most market watchers seem to be building in a smaller drawdown in this week’s report than we have traditionally seen this week.
So, while colder readings will certainly help this market, we believe that we will need to see it last through most of the rest of this month to turn prices back up and keep them headed higher. This week’s EIA underground storage report is likely to give us additional increases in the surpluses against both last year’s levels and against the five-year average for this time of year. The thinking is that it might not be until next week’s figures that we start eating into the surplus again.
All of this will become problematical as we move through February. The heart of winter is behind us now, and we will soon have less of an opportunity to eat into the surpluses. The fact that we had a draw of 195 bcf a year ago (against tomorrow’s figures) with a five-year average draw of 166.6 bcf means that this week’s figures need to be as large to eat into the surpluses at all. Last week’s report showed a draw of just 86 bcf, so anything similar this week would add further to the surpluses against a year ago and against the five-year average.
The next few days should tell us more about this market. We see this week’s EIA underground storage report as being critical, because it will set the stage for the surpluses for much of the rest of February. If we see another increase in the surpluses against a year ago and against the five-year average in this report, it will take some really brutal cold to eat into those surpluses further on. The closer we get to the second half of this month, the nearer we are – in traders’ minds – to the end of winter. It may be early to think that way, but the market does.
In cash trading yesterday, Henry Hub prices were at $5.42-$5.53, up 0.14-$0.16 on the day (DJN). SoCal prices were at $5.50-$5.60, up $0.06-$0.11 on the day. El Paso Permian prices were up $0.12-$0.14 to $5.32-$5.42. Katy prices were up $0.11-$0.14 to $5.32-$5.42. Waha prices were up $0.13-$0.16 at $5.35-$5.41. Transco 6 was down $0.15-$0.75 at $6.10-$6.50/mmBtu, according to Dow Jones News (DJN).
Palo Verde prices were last quoted at $46.75-$50.00/mwh. Northeastern prices last traded at $37.85-$55.50. Entergy was last at $39.50-$40.50. Ercot was last at $42.30-$43.00/mwh.
Support is at $5.37-$5.39, $5.23-$5.25, $5.12-$5.14, $5.06-$5.08, $4.96-$4.99, $4.83-$4.85, $4.64-$4.66, $4.40-$4.43, $4.15-$4.17, $4.05-$4.08, $3.73-$3.75, $3.66-$3.68, $3.50-$3.53, $3.44-$3.46, $3.28-$3.32, $2.91-$2.93, $2.80-$2.82, $2.74-$2.75, and $2.69-$2.70. Resistance is at $5.53-$5.55, $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03, $6.09-$6.11, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37, $6.65-$6.69, $6.90-$6.94, $7.01-$7.04, $7.28-$7.31, and $7.34-$7.36.
Mar Natural Gas: Support: $5.37-$5.39, $5.23-$5.25, $5.12-$5.14, $5.06-$5.08, $4.96-$4.99, $4.83-$4.85.
Resistance: $5.53-$5.55, $5.71-$5.73, $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03, $6.09-$6.11, $6.15-$6.17.
Natural gas prices rallied yesterday, but they still have the trendline above them as resistance..
Dollars per million Btu
Natural gas oscillators show a market that has come back from overbought levels.
Dollars per million Btu
EIA Weekly Storage Figures
Last week’s EIA report showed a draw of 86 bcf on expectations for a draw of 104-108 bcf. Stocks are now 120 bcf higher than a year ago, against a surplus of 22 bcf a week ago, a surplus of 103 bcf two weeks ago and a surplus of 286 bcf three weeks ago. Stocks are now 5.00% higher than a year ago. They are 87 bcf and 3.57% above the five-year average.
For this week, the eight-year average (of similar Friday reports) was a draw of 169.88 bcf. The five-year average was a draw of 166.6 bcf. Last year’s draw was 195 bcf. This seems to offer another chance for the surpluses to grow, again.
EIA Report
| Region | 01-22-10 | 01-15-09 | Change | Last Year | 5 Yr Avg |
| Cons East | 1334 | 1401 | dn 67 | 1231 | 1348 |
| Cons West | 380 | 396 | dn 16 | 355 | 320 |
| Producing | 807 | 810 | dn 03 | 815 | 765 |
| Total US | 2521 | 2607 | dn 86 | 2401 | 2434 |
Bcf, or Billions of cubic feet. Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy
News & Views
| In trading on Nymex, March crude oil prices were up $0.32 at $77.55/barrel at 7.30 AM EST, this morning. March heating oil prices were up 0.97 cents to 2.0414/gallon. March RBOB prices were up 2.04 cents to 2.03837. March natural gas prices were up $0.085 to $5.539/mmBtu. Traders have been more upbeat about the economy recently, with the GDP, manufacturing data and an improvement in expected home sales. Now, the bulls need some oil-specific news to maintain this week’s gains. DOE Expectations The table below lists the final survey results for Dow Jones, Bloomberg and Reuters. The DOE report will be released at 10:30 AM EDT on Wednesday morning this week. Category Dow Jones Bloomberg Reuters Crude up 0.400 up 0.000 dn 0.200 mln bbls Distillate dn 0.700 dn 1.000 dn 1.100 Gasoline up 1.000 up 1.300 up 1.300 Utilization dn 0.1% dn 0.0% dn 0.0% 
Crude oil prices were up strongly yesterday, reinforcing the importance of support in the $72.40-$72.65 zone. They have broken resistance and seem to be pointed higher, again. | 
Heating oil prices were higher again yesterday, reaffirming support between 189.00 and 189.60, and possibly on the way to build a final shoulder in a top or to make new highs. We cannot yet tell which. DOE History: Distillate stocks have fallen in seven of the last eight years, by an average of 3.657 mln bbls. The eight-year average is a draw of 3.187 mln bbls. Gasoline stocks rose in five of the last eight years, for a five-year build of 2.260 mln bbls and an eight-year average build of 0.900 mln bbls. Crude oil stocks have been higher in five of the last eight years for a five-year average build of 5.100 mln bbls and it has an eight-year average build of 3.087 mln bbls. Utilization has been lower in five of the last eight years (dn 1.22%) and has an eight-year average decrease of 0.60%, and it has an eight-year average utilization figure of 86.40%. The four-year, pre-hurricane utilization average was 87.58%. Since Katrina, refineries have run at an average utilization rate of 85.22%. Crude oil imports have been higher in five of the last six years, and the average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been down 419,000 bpd. The average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been 10.060 million bpd. Imports were 2.193 million bpd below that average in last week’s report. That’s 21.8% lower. |
| Crude prices have had a powerful two-day rally. | |
The oil complex has had a strong two-day rally, but we feel that we need to see either large draws in stocks or decent increases in demand in order to maintain these gains. Friday’s employment figure also looms large.
An Illustrated Look at Energy Market Factors
A Look at the US Dollar Versus the Euro
Dollar-Euro (dollar in euro cents): Three-Month Bar-Chart 
The US dollar tried to advance early yesterday, but it ran into selling above 72 euros. The trend is still higher and we have swing objectives to the 72.80-73.00 area. Yesterday’s weakness seems to have helped oil prices.
Source: http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forexqkchart&curcode1=USD&curcode2=EUR
A Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (djia)
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Six-Month Chart
The DJIA was up 111.32 points yesterday, and investors were out in force, again, looking for risk. We have had stronger economic news this week, but we are not sure it has been this strong.
Source: http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=djia&sid=1643&time=6mo&Submit1=Refresh
Recommendations for Specific Market Segments
Heating Oil Distributors Heating oil prices have had two strong sessions, during which they have gained more than 12 cents a gallon. All of this has come on the back of short-covering, bargain-hunting and investment buying. So far, there has been no reason to be excited about demand. If prices are going to build on these recent gains, we at least need to see stocks drop in today’s DOE report. If the bulls want to build on that, they should probably also get some sort of improvement in the four-week demand aggregates. If we do not see either of those, we would be surprised to see prices hold on to this market’s recent strength. We are still holding capped-price programs as insurance against the upside, but today’s report is important. Diesel Users We would hold capped-price protection here, without adding more. NYH Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…205.90-206.40 plus 3.000 USG Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…201.15-201.65 minus 1.750 Jet/Kerosene Users & Airlines New York Harbor cash market differentials were 2.00 to 2.50 cents over January heating oil in NY Harbor and 0.75 under to 0.25 under the screen in the US Gulf. Anything under 4 cents is worth hedging. Diesel & Gasoline Marketers We would keep product hedged against lower prices, with the trend clearly pointed lower. Gasoline Blenders & End-Users Until we see prices build some kind of price base, we should expect to see them under selling pressure. Prompt NYH Fuel Ethanol…..191.00-194.00 Prompt USG Fuel Ethanol….182.00-184.00 Quotes from 02-02-10 Heating Oil End-Users We would hold capped-price protection, but we are not keen to add to that protection here or now. Speculators We want to remain on the sidelines here. Refiners The 7:5+2 crack spread was $7.79 yesterday. Crude Oil Producers Crude oil prices were higher again yesterday, and that now throws the issue to this week’s DOE report. The bulls need some fundamental support to keep prices at these higher levels, | Prompt Jet Fuel Prices New York Harbor 205.15-205.65 US Gulf 202.40-202.90 Midwest (Group Three) 205.15-206.15 Midwest (Chicago) 199.15-203.15 Los Angeles 206.00-207.00 San Francisco 206.00-207.00 Portland, Oregon 206.00-207.00 Cents per gallon Propane Prices Mont Belvieu……….…..non-TET………$1.399420 Cents per gallon  Gasoline prices rallied sharply yesterday, and this seems to have reinforced the support in the 188.99-190.00 area. Prices have quickly found some momentum on the upside, but it is hard to tell if this is going to develop into a lasting movement higher.
|