Prices for February 3rd, 2010
| HEATING OIL cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | MAR | 205.74 | 200.74 | 201.94 | dn 01.23 | | APR | 206.20 | 201.56 | 202.71 | dn 01.08 | | MAY | 205.89 | 202.50 | 203.48 | dn 00.93 | | JUN | 207.79 | 204.00 | 204.64 | dn 00.74 | | JUL | 208.33 | 206.00 | 206.48 | dn 00.62 | | AUG | 209.90 | 207.80 | 208.47 | dn 00.52 | | SEP | 212.56 | 210.34 | 210.77 | dn 00.47 | | OCT | 214.89 | 212.10 | 213.19 | dn 00.52 | | NOV | 217.26 | 215.84 | 215.54 | dn 00.55 | | DEC | 220.05 | 216.93 | 217.89 | dn 00.58 | | JAN | 222.32 | 219.80 | 220.26 | dn 00.58 | | FEB | ---.-- | ---.-- | ---.-- | -- --.-- | | Estimated Volume (day before) total all prev day 95,783 | | NYMEX CRUDE OIL dollars per barrel | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | MAR | 78.04 | 76.52 | 76.98 | dn 00.25 | | APR | 78.54 | 76.98 | 77.43 | dn 00.29 | | MAY | 79.15 | 77.62 | 78.05 | dn 00.29 | | JUN | 79.66 | 78.21 | 78.64 | dn 00.27 | | JUL | 80.22 | 78.76 | 79.18 | dn 00.26 | | AUG | 80.45 | 79.29 | 79.68 | dn 00.25 | | | | | | | | | Estimated Volume… 649,092 Opec Basket…$73.05 up $2.03
Prompt #2 Oil NYH 88..-1.25 to -1.00, 74 Lo S…+0.00 to +0.50
US Gulf 88 grade…-5.00 to -4.50, 74 grade Lo S…-3.50 to -3.00 Group .........-5.25 to -4.75 Lo S.....-5.25 to -4.75
Chicago ......-4.00 to -3.75 cash quotes by Dow Jones | | | |
| NYMEX RBOB GASOLINE cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | MAR | 206.62 | 201.54 | 203.62 | up 01.83 | | APR | 216.47 | 212.33 | 213.96 | up 01.33 | | MAY | 217.06 | 213.53 | 214.93 | up 01.21 | | JUN | 216.60 | 213.88 | 215.22 | up 01.09 | | JUL | 216.74 | 214.00 | 214.83 | up 01.02 | | AUG | 215.23 | 213.50 | 214.03 | up 00.94 | | SEP | 214.01 | 211.47 | 213.07 | up 00.90 | | OCT | 204.15 | 204.15 | 203.22 | up 00.80 | | Estimated RB Volume day before 116,311 | | NYMEX NATURAL GAS dollars per mmBtu | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | MAR | 5.558 | 5.360 | 5.419 | dn 0.035 | | APR | 5.529 | 5.337 | 5.389 | dn 0.043 | | MAY | 5.571 | 5.397 | 5.436 | dn 0.047 | | JUN | 5.629 | 5.458 | 5.507 | dn 0.045 | | | Estimated Volume…day before (190,557)
Nymex statistics are based on composite Access & Day Sessions
Prompt Gasoline NYH M5 -0.75 /-0.50 RBOB +3.50 /+4.00
US Gulf M4: -4.25 to -4.00 RBOB -0.25 to +0.25
L.A. Conv Reg 211.00-212.00, N-grade Group 194.85-195.35 Chi 195.60-196.10 | |
Market Review for Wednesday
HE US dollar rallied yesterday, as traders reacted to the ADP first look at January employment and on concerns in Europe over Greece and Portugal. The latter concerns made the dollar more attractive against the euro. And the ADP figures injected fresh optimism over the potential for jobs growth. The DJIA did not have as clear sailing, and it fell 26.30 points in a very quiet trading inside a tight range. Investors seem to be cautiously optimistic, but are awaiting Friday’s definitive Labor Department figures on January employment.
ADP, which gives an early snapshot on employment each month before the Labor Department releases its report, said yesterday that 22,000 jobs were lost in January, slightly less than the 30,000 forecast. At the same time, job losses in December were revised down 61,000. The January figure was the smallest in two years and it offers hope that the Labor Department might actually report a small increase in employment when it releases its widely anticipated figure on Friday.
| Fuel for Thought There is a fight raging for control of this market. At its center, we see tomorrow’s Labor Department report on unemployment in January. Yesterday’s ADP figures give us an insight into possible responses. While a bullish set of figures will freshen the air with a positive outlook and should help equities, it seems likely, if yesterday is any guide, to give us a stronger dollar, as well. The question, then, could be more general; can oil prices rise on just stronger sentiments and equities, without needing a weaker dollar? Over the last year, the correlation between higher oil and lower dollar values has reigned supreme. Oil prices seem to prefer weak dollar and strong equities, but given a choice would seem to gain more from a weak dollar. |
Oil prices started out higher yesterday, on decent follow-through buying on recent economic statistics which added a more positive feel on the economic recovery. As the day wore on, though, a weaker stock market and stronger dollar sapped the buying from index funds and left the markets open to a more fundamental interpretation of the picture.
That picture remains mostly bearish, according to this week’s DOE statistics. There were drawdowns in refined products, which helped push and maintain gasoline prices in positive territory, but crude oil stocks and crude oil imports were both higher. Combining with lower utilization rates, the higher imports gave us a build in inventories. Despite that, crude oil inventories are now 21.3 million barrels (6.08%) lower than a year ago. Last week, they were only 17.5 million barrels (5.08%) lower. Gasoline inventories were 13.0 million barrels (6.01%) higher and are now 10.8 mln bbls (4.97%) higher, and distillate inventories were 13.2 mln bbls (9.15%) higher and are now 12.8 mln bbls (8.91%) higher. These figures were all supportive, but demand figures remain depressed, and they seem to have hurt yesterday’s early strength (p 3).
Technicals
Technically, yesterday was an unimportant one. Prices made new recent highs in early trading, but they sold off later in the day, giving us a minor common reversal. Prices are struggling to find direction here, and it may take until Friday to get it all sorted out.
Dollars per barrel
Above: The crack spread was higher yesterday as products gained on crude oil prices. It was its highest since January 25th.
March crude oil now has buy-stops over $78.05, $78.36, $79.31-$79.47, $80.67, $82.35, $83.95, $84.83, $85.13, $89.82, $90.99, $93.02, $96.03, and $100.37. Sell-stops are under $76.50, $74.40, $72.40, $71.99, $71.20, $70.55, $69.30, $68.55, $68.00, $65.80-$66.20, and $64.95. March heating oil has buy-stops over 205.75, 208.10, 210.91, 211.90, 217.55, 222.72, 225.80, 227.05, 229.08, 238.95, 249.62, and 251.50. Sell stops are under 200.70, 195.00-195.20, 190.85, 189.00, 188.70, 187.00, 186.50, 182.63, 177.00, 176.68, 173.75, 171.10, 170.35, and 168.60. March RBOB has buy-stops over 206.65, 206.88-207.35, 208.30, 214.60, 219.27, 222.70, 228.86, 240.10, 250.40, 252.00, 265.10, 267.85, 270.85, 272.00, and 280.25. Sell-stops are under 201.54, 193.00-193.15, 189.70, 188.99, 185.00-185.15, 184.60, 182.40, 181.20, 179.20, 177.30, 175.14, 171.40, and 170.25.
Football: The bulls lost two yards yesterday on first down, and that makes it second and 12 to go.
Technical Support & Resistance
Mar crude oil Support: $76.50-$76.65, $74.40-$74.55, $72.40-$72.55, $71.95-$72.05, $71.20-$71.30.
Resistance: $77.95-$78.05, $78.25-$78.36, $79.30-$79.50, $80.55-$80.70, $82.25-$82.35.
Mar heating oil Support: 200.70-200.85, 195.00-195.25, 190.85-191.00, 189.00-189.15, 188.70-188.85.
Resistance: 203.50-203.72, 204.35-204.45, 205.50-205.75, 208.00-208.10, 210.75-210.91.
Mar Rbob Support: 201.50-201.65, 193.00-193.20, 189.70-189.85, 188.95-189.10, 185.00-185.15.
Resistance: 206.25-206.35, 206.60-206.65, 206.90-207.35, 208.20-208.30, 214.45-214.60.
Oil Inventory Reports
This week’s DOE report showed the opposite of what it showed a week ago; crude oil stocks increased and refined products stocks declined. Taking the opposite characterization even further, utilization dropped and crude oil imports increased, giving the report a completely different look from the one preceding it. He year-on-year inventory comparisons all moved in a bullish direction (see page 2), despite the fact that demand continued to languish (see below). Only propane and jet fuel consumption figures are higher than they were at this time a year ago, and that is certainly seasonal. Distillate demand is only getting weaker.
This Week’s Inventory Comparison: Distillate stocks are now 12.8 million bbls, or 8.91%, higher than a year ago. Heating oil inventories are 3.9 mln bbls, or 10.24%, higher than they were a year ago. Gasoline stocks are 10.8 mln bbls (up 4.97%) higher against a year ago. Crude oil stocks are now 21.3 million bbls, or 6.08%, lower than a year ago. Residual stocks are 4.2 mln bbls (11.83%) higher than a year ago, jet fuel stocks are 2.9 mln bbls, (7.20%) higher than a year ago. Utilization is 5.80% lower than a year ago and 8.70% below the eight-year average. It is 9.88% lower than the four-year, pre-Katrina average and 7.52% below the average of the four years since the big hurricanes (Katrina & Rita) in 2005.
This Week’s Demand: Four-week, total refined products demand came in at 18.750 million bpd, down 0.003 mln bbls on the week, and down 0.375 mln bpd and 1.96% against a year ago. Four weeks ago, it was 0.050 mln bpd and 0.26% higher than a year ago. Four-week gasoline demand is at 8.644 mln bpd, down 0.53%, compared to up 0.32% four weeks ago. It fell 32,000 bpd on the week. Four-week distillate demand is now at 3.705 mln bpd, down 9.08%, compared to down 0.98% four weeks ago. Four-week jet demand is now at 1.360 mln bpd, up 0.22% against a year ago, compared to up 8.17% four weeks ago. Four-week residual fuel demand is at 0.461 mln bpd, down 34.14%, compared to down 1.19% 11 weeks ago. Propane use is up 13.63%, at 1.634 mln bpd.
This Week’s API Report: This week’s API report showed a build of 4.723 mln bbls in crude oil stocks, a draw of 1.022 mln bbls in distillate stocks and a draw of 1.159 mln bbls in gasoline inventories. Utilization was up 0.4% to 78.0%. Implied demand came in at 9.196 mln bpd in gasoline and at 4.019 mln bpd in distillate. Crude oil imports were up 0.322 mln bpd to 8.471 mln bpd. Demand was pretty average, and we had a build in crude and draws in products in this report.
DOE Weekly Inventory Statistics
| Category | Final DOE Estimate
This Week’s Estimate | History
Last Year’s Report | Most Recent Changes
This Week’s DOE Report | Versus A Year Ago
Millions of Barrels |
| Distillate | dn 1.75 to 2.25 mln bbls | dn 1.400 | dn 0.948 mln bbls | up 12.800 |
| Gasoline | up 1.75 to 2.25 | up 0.300 | dn 1.306 | up 10.800 |
| Crude oil | up 3.50 to 4.50 | up 7.200 | up 2.317 | dn 21.300 |
| Utilization | dn 0.3% to 0.8% | up 1.0% at 83.5% | dn 0.75% at 77.70% | |
| Crude Imports | up 0.250 to 0.750 mmbd | up 0.329 to 10.037 | up 0.559 to 8.426 mln bpd | |
| DOE Distillate Demand | 3.659 mln bpd | dn 066,000 | Gasoline Demand | 8.613 mln bpd | dn 006,000 |
| DOE Distillate Production | 3.484 mln bpd | dn 032,000 | Gasoline Production | 8.584 mln bpd | dn 052,000 |
| DOE Distillate Imports | 0.438 mln bpd | dn 220,000 | Gasoline Imports | 0.926 mln bpd | up 103,000 |
Source: US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration
Open Interest Analysis
Crude oil open interest grew by a striking 35,948 contracts on Tuesday, when prices were higher. That looks like heavy, new buying, on balance, and is supportive. We expect to discover tomorrow that funds were buying heavily early this week.
Heating oil open interest grew by 1,292 contracts on Tuesday, when prices were higher. That looks like new buying, which would be supportive.
RBOB open interest rose by 8,651 contracts on Tuesday when prices were higher. That looks like new buying, which was seen across the board. This is very heavy buying for gasoline and suggests that funds were in here buying.
Natural gas open interest grew by 559 on Tuesday, when prices were higher. That looks like light, new buying and would be seen as being supportive.
Tuesday’s Open Interest Changes:
Crude 1,360,697 up 35,948 Heat 312,191 up 1,292 RBOB 257,790 up 8,651 Nat gas 782,673 up 559
CFTC Commitments of Traders for Nymex (for the period ended Tuesday, Jan 26th)
Crude oil prices dropped $4.61bbl over the latest reporting period, and the best selling came from the “other reportables” category, which liquidated 7,251 existing longs. They also covered 1,113 old shorts. Producers covered 7,289 shorts and liquidated 348 longs. Managed Money bought 1,630 new longs and covered 1,688 shorts while Swap Dealers bought 79 new longs and sold 1,897 new shorts. Managed Money and Swap Dealers still hold the largest net long positions.
In heating oil futures, prices dropped 9.46 cents a gallon, and the best net selling came from Managed Money accounts. They liquidated 6,647 longs and added 6,189 new shorts. Everyone else was a net buyer, with producers buying 5,130 longs and covering 2,209 shorts, swap dealers adding 4,233 longs and covering 104 shorts, and other reportables buying 1,994 longs and selling 499 new short contracts. Managed Money sold and liquidated almost equally and their selling pressed quotes down.
Gasoline prices dropped 9.17 cents a gallon during the period under review. Managed money liquidated 14,698 longs and covered 3,008 shorts. Producers added 1,479 new longs and covered 9,120 shorts. Swap dealers added 2,738 new longs and covered 330 shorts. Other reportables liquidated 160 longs and covered 1,143 shorts. Fund liquidation was the motive force.
In natural gas, prices dropped 7.2 cents during the period under review. Producers liquidated 9,336 longs and covered 5,715 shorts. Swap dealers liquidated 4,168 longs and added 100 shorts, while other reportables liquidated 1,331 longs and covered 5,630 shorts. Managed Money accounts added 1,243 longs and covered 626 shorts. Producer liquidation moved quotes most.
Natural Gas & Utility Generation
Natural gas prices were higher in earlier trading yesterday, like just about everything else. And, like the other markets, traders were looking at the ADP employment figures for January and seeing in them a continuation of the generally positive tone that has been seen since last Friday’s stronger-than-expected GDP figures. But, as the day wore on, the dollar rallied, equities sagged, and the positive sentiment gradually gave way to a more neutral sense of concern that Friday’s Labor Department numbers might not be as supportive. At this stage, the market is looking for a small increase in January’s employment figures (in Friday’s numbers).
Traders were also using sharpened pencils to calculate the impact of this week’s EIA underground storage report. Bloomberg is looking for a draw this week of 124 bcf, while Dow Jones compiled a survey looking for a pull of 122 bcf. The five-year average of precise dates is a draw of 178 bcf, while our five-year average, using similar Friday-ending reports, has a five-year draw of 167 bcf. Over the last eight years, the reports we dug up give us an average draw of 170 bcf. Last year, we reported in this report a draw of 195 bcf. So, if this week’s draw comes in on target, the year-on-year surplus would increase by 70-some-odd bcf, taking it to 190 bcf from 120 bcf. It would leave us with stocks roughly 8.8% higher than a year ago, as opposed to 5.00% a week ago. The surplus against the five-year average would increase from 87 bcf and 3.57% to 141 bcf and 6.25% more than a year ago, if we were to see a draw of 124 bcf, on expectations. Obviously, we still have the report in front of us, but a sharp pencil and historical data gave traders reasons to be selling yesterday.
Weather forecasts, which are calling for colder-than-normal readings into the middle of this month, were the reason that the mathematics above did not give us more selling. And, with so many meteorological forecasts calling for the very real possibility of sustained and bitterly cold readings, we could get a bearish report at 10:30 AM EST this morning, drop on selling against it, and then see weather-based buying come in right behind it and push quotes back into positive territory before lunch … possibly even before 11 AM. We often see fades after reports here.
In cash trading yesterday, Henry Hub prices were at $5.47-$5.60, up 0.05-$0.07 on the day (DJN). SoCal prices were at $5.59-$5.66, up $0.06-$0.09 on the day. El Paso Permian prices were up $0.04-$0.05 to $5.36-$5.47. Katy prices were up $0.07-$0.11 to $5.43-$5.47. Waha prices were up $0.03-$0.06 at $5.38-$5.47. Transco 6 was up $0.34-$0.35 at $6.44-$6.85/mmBtu, according to Dow Jones News (DJN).
Palo Verde prices were last quoted at $47.75-$50.00/mwh. Northeastern prices last traded at $40.00-$59.00. Entergy was last at $38.50-$39.75. Ercot was last at $47/00-$47.50/mwh.
Support is at $5.36-$5.39, $5.23-$5.25, $5.12-$5.14, $5.06-$5.08, $4.96-$4.99, $4.83-$4.85, $4.64-$4.66, $4.40-$4.43, $4.15-$4.17, $4.05-$4.08, $3.73-$3.75, $3.66-$3.68, $3.50-$3.53, $3.44-$3.46, $3.28-$3.32, $2.91-$2.93, $2.80-$2.82, $2.74-$2.75, and $2.69-$2.70. Resistance is at $5.53-$5.56, $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03, $6.09-$6.11, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37, $6.65-$6.69, $6.90-$6.94, $7.01-$7.04, $7.28-$7.31, and $7.34-$7.36.
Mar Natural Gas: Support: $5.36-$5.39, $5.23-$5.25, $5.12-$5.14, $5.06-$5.08, $4.96-$4.99, $4.83-$4.85.
Resistance: $5.53-$5.56, $5.71-$5.73, $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03, $6.09-$6.11, $6.15-$6.17.
Natural gas prices dropped slightly yesterday, in anticipation of a poor report today.
Dollars per million Btu
The ratio of crude to natural gas ended yesterday at 14.21-to-one.
Dollars per million Btu
EIA Weekly Storage Figures
Last week’s EIA report showed a draw of 86 bcf on expectations for a draw of 104-108 bcf. Stocks are now 120 bcf higher than a year ago, against a surplus of 22 bcf a week ago, a surplus of 103 bcf two weeks ago and a surplus of 286 bcf three weeks ago. Stocks are now 5.00% higher than a year ago. They are 87 bcf and 3.57% above the five-year average.
For this week, the eight-year average (of similar Friday reports) was a draw of 169.88 bcf. The five-year average was a draw of 166.6 bcf. Last year’s draw was 195 bcf. Estimates are for a draw of 122-124 bcf.
EIA Report
| Region | 01-22-10 | 01-15-10 | Change | Last Year | 5 Yr Avg |
| Cons East | 1334 | 1401 | dn 67 | 1231 | 1348 |
| Cons West | 380 | 396 | dn 16 | 355 | 320 |
| Producing | 807 | 810 | dn 03 | 815 | 765 |
| Total US | 2521 | 2607 | dn 86 | 2401 | 2434 |
Bcf, or Billions of cubic feet. Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy
News & Views
| In trading on Nymex, March crude oil prices were down $0.7132 at $76.27/barrel at 7.30 AM EST, this morning. March heating oil prices were down 1.37 cents to 2.0057/gallon. March RBOB prices were down 1.42 cents to 2.0220. March natural gas prices were down $0.004 to $5.415/mmBtu. Oil prices were lower this morning on continuing profit-taking on the long side. A large part of the buying we had on Monday and Tuesday seems to have come from funds influenced by the combination of stronger equities and a lower US dollar. The dollar was lower early this week and it staged a comeback yesterday, with buying continuing through the afternoon and into last night. Early this morning, the dollar burst to new, recent highs and that has helped put pressure on oil prices. This connection, between stronger dollar and lower oil prices does not bode well for this week’s great, final hope. While any gains in jobs tomorrow will help equities and sentiment, they should also boost the greenback. 
Crude oil prices moved higher early, but sold off later in the day. There is still support in the $72.40-$72.65 zone. Yesterday’s activity really did not tell us much technically. | 
Heating oil prices were higher in early trading yesterday, but they sold off and finished near the day’s lows later in the day. Yesterday’s activity was not conclusive. As Iraq gears up for national elections on March 7th, followed by a gradual reduction of US military forces there (or that is the existing plan), oil looms as the biggest national asset and is one that will divide – or possibly unite – the three main ethnic groups competing for political and financial power. The largest group is composed of Shi’ites, partisans of Ali, Mohammed’s son-in-law. They control much of the south, including oil production and refining near Basra and with access to the Shatt-al-Arab, the waterway into the Petroleum Gulf (PG). In the North, Kurds are keen to form a semi-autonomous ‘Kurdistan,’ with oil wealth of its own. The Kurds are looking to construct a pipeline to carry an additional million bpd to link up with the Ceyhan pipeline into Turkey. They halted exports in October over a disagreement with Baghdad on revenue-sharing. They can restore 100,000 bpd immediately with another 150,000 bpd within a year. They also want to add refining capacity to an existing base of about 60,000 bpd, bringing it to 200,000 bpd. Iraq is hoping to increase its oil exports dramatically over the next two years, but sectional and ethnic/factional differences remain problematic. |
| Crude prices had a quiet day technically, yesterday. | |
This week’s supply figures were supportive, but the demand numbers were bearish. Stronger equities were bullish, but a stronger dollar was bearish. Right this minute, the dollar seems to be the trump card in this hand.
An Illustrated Look at Energy Market Factors
A Look at the US Dollar Versus the Euro
Dollar-Euro (dollar in euro cents): Three-Month Bar-Chart 
The US dollar turned back up again yesterday, after having traded lower on Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. It made additional gains in after-hours trading yesterday and it has burst to fresh highs this morning.
Source: http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forexqkchart&curcode1=USD&curcode2=EUR
A Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (djia)
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Six-Month Chart
The DJIA was down 26.30 points yesterday in a relatively quiet and uninspired trading day. While the markets did not hand back the gains recently registered, yesterday’s activity clearly tells us that Friday’s unemployment figures will be decisive.
Source: http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=djia&sid=1643&time=6mo&Submit1=Refresh
A Look at Gasoline Supply & Demand
Thirteen-week demand is at 8.869 million bpd, down 0.28% against last year. Thirteen-week supply is at 9.740 mln bpd, down 1.19%. Thirteen-week implied demand is at 9.557 mln bpd, down 0.38% against a year earlier
A Look at Distillate Supply & Demand
Thirteen-week demand is at 3.654 million bpd, down 9.64% against last year. Thirteen-week supply is at 4.095 mln bpd, down 11.59%. Thirteen-week implied demand is at 4.170 mln bpd, down 6.72%.
A Look at Refinery Utilization
Utilization is 5.80% lower than a year ago and 8.70% below the eight-year average. It is 9.88% lower than the four-year, pre-Katrina average and 7.52% below the average of the four years since the big hurricanes (Katrina & Rita) in 2005.
Recommendations for Specific Market Segments
Heating Oil Distributors Heating oil prices tried to advance yesterday, in the wake of yesterday’s generally positive employment report from ADP. But, they could not maintain those gains, even with a drawdown in stocks in this week’s DOE report. Demand reported by the DOE continues to worsen, and the latest four-week aggregate, average demand is now down 9.08% against the same period a year ago. Just a week ago, it was down 8.12%, and two weeks ago it was down 6.84%, preceded by down 4.02% a week before that. Demand has been steadily deteriorating during the heart of winter. We are still holding capped-price programs as insurance against the upside, but it is hard to be outright bullish in this market. Diesel Users We would hold capped-price protection here, without adding more. NYH Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…204.70-204.95 plus 2.875 USG Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…200.45-200.95 minus 1.250 Jet/Kerosene Users & Airlines New York Harbor cash market differentials were 3.00 to 3.25 cents over January heating oil in NY Harbor and 0.50 under to 0.00 under the screen in the US Gulf. Anything under 4 cents is worth hedging. Diesel & Gasoline Marketers We would keep product hedged against lower prices, because this picture changes quite quickly. Gasoline Blenders & End-Users Prices have rallied this week, and the year-to-year inventory comparisons have been steadily improving. Still, demand languishes. Prompt NYH Fuel Ethanol…..191.00-194.00 Prompt USG Fuel Ethanol….182.00-184.00 Quotes from 02-03-10 Heating Oil End-Users We would hold capped-price protection, as a precaution, but we do not see any clear fundamental reason to get aggressive with buying. Speculators This market has a strong dollar and poor fundamentals working against it. Stronger equities might not be enough to help. Refiners The 7:5+2 crack spread was $8.34 yesterday. Crude Oil Producers Crude oil prices tried to advance yesterday, but they ran out of steam before the final bell. Traders are waiting for the Labor Department’s read on unemployment tomorrow. | Prompt Jet Fuel Prices New York Harbor 204.95-205.20 US Gulf 201.45-201.95 Midwest (Group Three) 203.95-204.95 Midwest (Chicago) 197.95-201.95 Los Angeles 205.00-206.00 San Francisco 205.00-206.00 Portland, Oregon 205.00-206.00 Cents per gallon Propane Prices Mont Belvieu……….…..non-TET………$1.399420 Cents per gallon  Gasoline prices tried moving higher in early trading yesterday, but they sold off later in the day. They still ended stronger on the day and this market is the strongest of the oil complex right now, which is remarkable coming during its period of weakest demand – just ahead of a cold snap that should be helping elsewhere.
|