Prices for February 8th, 2010
| HEATING OIL cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | MAR | 190.36 | 186.50 | 188.55 | up 01.07 | | APR | 190.93 | 187.28 | 189.34 | up 01.06 | | MAY | 191.57 | 188.19 | 190.28 | up 01.12 | | JUN | 192.77 | 189.97 | 191.56 | up 01.15 | | JUL | 194.69 | 191.75 | 193.59 | up 01.13 | | AUG | 196.48 | 193.71 | 195.69 | up 01.16 | | SEP | 199.00 | 195.96 | 197.97 | up 01.14 | | OCT | 200.93 | 198.81 | 200.44 | up 01.12 | | NOV | 203.31 | 201.11 | 202.85 | up 01.12 | | DEC | 206.13 | 203.79 | 205.25 | up 01.12 | | JAN | 208.33 | 207.03 | 207.70 | up 01.12 | | FEB | 208.74 | 208.42 | 209.10 | up 01.12 | | Estimated Volume (day before) total all prev day 136,665 | | NYMEX CRUDE OIL dollars per barrel | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | MAR | 72.39 | 70.77 | 71.89 | up 00.70 | | APR | 72.70 | 71.10 | 72.29 | up 00.77 | | MAY | 73.17 | 71.57 | 72.76 | up 00.81 | | JUN | 73.65 | 72.08 | 73.26 | up 00.81 | | JUL | 74.06 | 72.86 | 73.78 | up 00.81 | | AUG | 74.35 | 73.48 | 74.24 | up 00.78 | | | | | | | | | Estimated Volume… 1,121,751 Opec Basket…$69.71 dn $3.02
Prompt #2 Oil NYH 88..-1.50 to -1.00, 74 Lo S…+0.75 to +1.00
US Gulf 88 grade…-4.50 to -4.25, 74 grade Lo S…-1.50 to -1.00 Group .........-6.50 to -6.00 Lo S.....-6.50 to -6.00
Chicago ......-6.75 to -5.50 cash quotes by Dow Jones | | | |
| NYMEX RBOB GASOLINE cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | MAR | 191.14 | 187.00 | 189.40 | up 00.76 | | APR | 201.16 | 197.95 | 200.39 | up 01.17 | | MAY | 202.12 | 199.10 | 201.56 | up 01.26 | | JUN | 202.20 | 199.67 | 201.90 | up 01.23 | | JUL | 201.59 | 199.41 | 201.43 | up 01.13 | | AUG | 200.52 | 200.52 | 200.61 | up 01.15 | | SEP | 199.82 | 198.45 | 199.71 | up 01.17 | | OCT | 189.94 | 189.55 | 189.87 | up 01.17 | | Estimated RB Volume day before 111,742 | | NYMEX NATURAL GAS dollars per mmBtu | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | MAR | 5.680 | 5.396 | 5.401 | dn 0.114 | | APR | 5.638 | 5.367 | 5.371 | dn 0.112 | | MAY | 5.683 | 5.425 | 5.428 | dn 0.107 | | JUN | 5.738 | 5.502 | 5.504 | dn 0.100 | | | Estimated Volume…day before (310,745)
Nymex statistics are based on composite Access & Day Sessions
Prompt Gasoline NYH M5 -1.75 /-1.25 RBOB +3.50 /+4.00
US Gulf M4: -4.50 to -4.25 RBOB -0.25 to +0.00
L.A. Conv Reg 198.00-199.00, N-grade Group 181.40-181.90 Chi 178.40-179.40 | |
Market Review for Monday
RIDAY’S volume came in at a record high - more than 1.1 million contracts, making the two-day decline one of the heaviest volume moves of all time. We cannot recall seeing more than 2 million contracts trading hands over a two-day decline, and it is either the start of a bigger move lower, or it could be the end of the selloff. The fact this extraordinary volume came in conjunction with extreme weakness over two days is what makes it so significant. It is more likely to be the start of new weakness than the final gasp of selling. Friday’s volume broke the June 6, 2008 record.
The US dollar was mixed to slightly higher yesterday, as traders continued to worry about sovereign debt in Europe. And equities sagged again under growing concern that the economic recovery has lost steam. It seems that yesterday’s best buying came from bargain-hunters and others who saw prices at their recent low levels as decent speculative purchases. Cold weather, which has been a fixture recently, was also a factor.
| Fuel for Thought US Energy Secretary Steven Chu acknowledged that an estimated 90% of the $32 billion in stimulus money awarded to the Energy Department has yet to be spent, and admitted, “It’s certainly less that what I’d hoped initially.” He noted that many states are not used to dealing with such large amounts, and added that the competitive process deciding how the money might be spent was overly complex. The funds were earmarked for renewable energy projects, insulation or weather-proofing and other so-called “clean energy” initiatives. Secretary Chu said that he is hopeful that his department will inject cash as part of a jobs bill being considered now in Congress. “We are working very hard on those issues,” he said. |
Technically, yesterday’s moves higher look like little more than rallies in a continuing bear market. Trends are lower and important technical support levels were broken below on Friday. Chart followers are likely to view any upside movement from here as opportunities to sell short in this market.
Compounding this feeling is the fact that oil demand remains extremely poor and has been unable to raise itself from the floor. For much of the last year, poor industrial demand has been a factor, but stubbornly high unemployment has also been a major reason why demand has languished. And, after several months of prices moving higher on the promise offered by higher equities quotes, high energy prices have proved to be their own self-defeating mechanism for demand.
More than anything else, a pervading sense of uncertainty seems to have defeated the movement into commodities that defined the first week of 2010. Risk appetite, as it has so widely been called, has lost its alluring flavor. The end-result has been a self-priming pump of movement out of equities and commodities and into the US dollar. It has been feeding on itself recently.
Technicals
Prices rallied yesterday, making the lows we had yesterday and on Friday into the new support zones in this market. Friday’s crude oil volume exceeded Thursday’s and is the new highest figure on record. The two-day volume figure of more than 2 million contracts has not been seen before, either, and it reinforces the moves lower seen at the end of last week’s trading. There is an outside chance it is last-gasp selling, but we think the odds are against that.
Dollars per barrel
Above: Heating oil prices returned to the broken trendline and then broke down beneath support at 189.00 and 187.00.
March crude oil now has buy-stops over $72.40, $73.94-$74.00, $77.20, $78.05, $78.36, $79.31-$79.47, $80.67, $82.35, $83.95, $84.83, $85.13, $89.82, $90.99, $93.02, $96.03, and $100.37. Sell-stops are under $70.75, $69.30, $68.55, $68.00, $65.80-$66.20, and $64.95. March heating oil has buy-stops over 190.36-190.40, 194.50, 202.65, 205.75, 208.10, 210.91, 211.90, 217.55, 222.72, 225.80, 227.05, 229.08, 238.95, 249.62, and 251.50. Sell stops are under 186.50, 182.63, 177.00, 176.68, 173.75, 171.10, 170.35, and 168.60. March RBOB has buy-stops over 191.15, 195.95-196.00, 203.75, 206.65, 206.88-207.35, 208.30, 214.60, 219.27, 222.70, 228.86, 240.10, 250.40, 252.00, 265.10, 267.85, 270.85, 272.00, and 280.25. Sell-stops are under 187.00, 184.15, 182.40, 181.20, 179.20, 177.30, 175.14, 171.40, and 170.25.
Football: The bears lost seven yards on first down yesterday, making it second and 17 to go, here.
Technical Support & Resistance
Mar crude oil Support: $71.15-$71.30, $70.55-$70.70, $69.30-$69.45, $68.50-$68.60, $68.00-$68.20.
Resistance: $72.30-$72.40, $73.90-$74.00, $77.05-$77.20, $77.95-$78.05, $78.25-$78.36.
Mar heating oil Support: 186.50-186.65, 182.60-182.75, 177.00-177.20, 176.65-176.75, 173.75-173.90.
Resistance: 190.30-190.40, 194.40-194.50, 202.50-202.62, 203.50-203.72, 204.35-204.45.
Mar Rbob Support: 187.00-187.15, 184.15-184.30, 182.40-182.55, 181.20-181.35, 179.20-179.35.
Resistance: 191.0-191.15, 195.80-195.95, 203.60-203.75, 206.25-206.35, 206.60-206.65.
Oil Inventory Reports
This week’s DOE report does not have as strong a history as many of the recent reports we have reviewed. The best proportion of years in one direction was six years out of eight for lower distillate stocks. Utilization was also higher in six of the last eight years (for an average increase of 0.563%). Both crude oil and gasoline stocks were higher in five of the last eight years, and there have been some big builds (4.9 million bbls in gasoline stocks in 2005, and 4.9 mln bbls in crude in 2006). Crude oil imports have trended lower this week, although the eight-year average bears no relation to what we will see this week.
Last Week’s Inventory Comparison: Distillate stocks are now 12.8 million bbls, or 8.91%, higher than a year ago. Heating oil inventories are 3.9 mln bbls, or 10.24%, higher than they were a year ago. Gasoline stocks are 10.8 mln bbls (up 4.97%) higher against a year ago. Crude oil stocks are now 21.3 million bbls, or 6.08%, lower than a year ago. Residual stocks are 4.2 mln bbls (11.83%) higher than a year ago, jet fuel stocks are 2.9 mln bbls, (7.20%) higher than a year ago. Utilization is 5.80% lower than a year ago and 8.70% below the eight-year average. It is 9.88% lower than the four-year, pre-Katrina average and 7.52% below the average of the four years since the big hurricanes (Katrina & Rita) in 2005.
Last Week’s Demand: Four-week, total refined products demand came in at 18.750 million bpd, down 0.003 mln bbls on the week, and down 0.375 mln bpd and 1.96% against a year ago. Four weeks ago, it was 0.050 mln bpd and 0.26% higher than a year ago. Four-week gasoline demand is at 8.644 mln bpd, down 0.53%, compared to up 0.32% four weeks ago. It fell 32,000 bpd on the week. Four-week distillate demand is now at 3.705 mln bpd, down 9.08%, compared to down 0.98% four weeks ago. Four-week jet demand is now at 1.360 mln bpd, up 0.22% against a year ago, compared to up 8.17% four weeks ago. Four-week residual fuel demand is at 0.461 mln bpd, down 34.14%, compared to down 1.19% 11 weeks ago. Propane use is up 13.63%, at 1.634 mln bpd.
Last Week’s API Report: This week’s API report showed a build of 4.723 mln bbls in crude oil stocks, a draw of 1.022 mln bbls in distillate stocks and a draw of 1.159 mln bbls in gasoline inventories. Utilization was up 0.4% to 78.0%. Implied demand came in at 9.196 mln bpd in gasoline and at 4.019 mln bpd in distillate. Crude oil imports were up 0.322 mln bpd to 8.471 mln bpd. Demand was pretty average, and we had a build in crude and draws in products in this report.
DOE Weekly Inventory Statistics
| Category | Final DOE Estimate
This Week’s Estimate | History
Last Year’s Report | Most Recent Changes
Last Week’s DOE Report | Versus A Year Ago
Millions of Barrels |
| Distillate | dn 2.00 to 2.50 mln bbls | dn 1.066 | dn 0.948 mln bbls | up 12.800 |
| Gasoline | up 1.00 to 1.50 | dn 2.662 | dn 1.306 | up 10.800 |
| Crude oil | up 1.25 to 2.25 | up 4.717 | up 2.317 | dn 21.300 |
| Utilization | up 0.3% to 0.8% | dn 1.9% at 81.6% | dn 0.75% at 77.70% | |
| Crude Imports | dn 0.000 to 0.500 mmbd | dn 0.385 to 9.652 | up 0.559 to 8.426 mln bpd | |
| DOE Distillate Demand | 3.659 mln bpd | dn 066,000 | Gasoline Demand | 8.613 mln bpd | dn 006,000 |
| DOE Distillate Production | 3.484 mln bpd | dn 032,000 | Gasoline Production | 8.584 mln bpd | dn 052,000 |
| DOE Distillate Imports | 0.438 mln bpd | dn 220,000 | Gasoline Imports | 0.926 mln bpd | up 103,000 |
Source: US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration
Open Interest Analysis
Crude oil open interest fell by 12,426 contracts on Friday, after falling by 43,050 contracts on Wednesday and Thursday. Prices were steeply lower at the end of last week and this looks like extremely heavy long liquidation.
Heating oil open interest fell by 1,937 contracts on Friday, when prices were lower. That looks like long liquidation and is theoretically supportive.
RBOB open interest fell by 812 contracts on Friday when prices were lower. That looks like long liquidation, which would be supportive.
Natural gas open interest grew by 2,325 on Friday, when prices were higher. That looks like fresh buying, which would be supportive.
Friday’s Open Interest Changes:
Crude 1,305,523 dn 12,426 Heat 311,654 dn 1,937 RBOB 255,331 dn 812 Nat gas 781,597 up 2,325
CFTC Commitments of Traders for Nymex (for the period ended Tuesday, Feb 2nd)
Crude oil prices gained $2.57bbl over the latest reporting period, and the best buying came from the “other reportables” category, which added 1,623 longs, but which also added 1,123 new shorts. Producers covered 6,749 shorts and liquidated 8,284 longs. Managed Money liquidated 2,386 longs and added 160 shorts while Swap Dealers liquidated 802 longs and covered 515 shorts. Based on these figures, we must deduce that day-trading helped push quotes higher – none of this did.
In heating oil futures, prices were up 7.34 cents a gallon, and the best net buying came from Swap Dealers, who bought 3,861 new longs and covered 72 shorts. Producers bought 832 longs and covered 4,783 shorts. Managed Money was on the short side, liquidating 1,388 longs and adding 2,498 new shorts. Other Reportables liquidated 698 longs and added 99 shorts. The motive buying, though, seems to have come from Swap Dealers on this round.
Gasoline prices gained 4.49 cents a gallon during the period under review. Producer short-covering seems to have given us the best buying; Producers liquidated 5,079 longs and covered 9,475 shorts. Swap dealers liquidated 1,444 longs and covered 720 shorts. Other reportables liquidated 212 longs and covered 769 shorts. Managed Money liquidated 2,406 and added 908.
In natural gas, prices gained 3.2 cents during the period under review. Producers added 130 longs and added 2,442 shorts. Swap dealers added 6,926 longs and added 5,048 shorts. Other Reportables added 280 longs and added 3,861 shorts. Net short-covering by Managed Money, which liquidated 11,763 longs and covered 18,540 shorts, was the motive force.
Natural Gas & Utility Generation
Natural gas prices were down more than 11 cents yesterday, as the focus swung back to the recent increase in the surpluses against previous years. As so often happens from the middle of February on, traders were talking about the approach of spring, which is – in our eyes – more premature than ever. We usually do not see this looking ahead to warmer weather until after the 15th or 20th, and that typically turns out to be far too early, itself, so this anticipation is way ahead of itself. As we have noted here before, March is always colder than expected, anyway. Winter has plenty left in it.
Last week’s report increased the surpluses against both last year and against the five-year average. Last week’s reported pull of 115 bcf was 7-9 bcf less than expected, 79-80 bcf less than a year ago (going right onto the year-on-year surplus) and 52-63 bcf less than the five-year averages. Those increases were added onto the surpluses against a year ago and against the five-year average, and are the main reason that the surpluses now stand at 199 bcf and 9.02% higher than a year ago and 150 bcf and 6.65% more than the five-year average. For this week, last year, there was a drawdown of 159 bcf. The five-year average, using similar Friday reports in our records, was a draw of 147.6. So, traders will be using a draw of 159 bcf as the benchmark for the surpluses against both a year ago and against the five year average. The eight-year average of similar reports was a drawdown of 158.5 bcf, which reinforces the 159 bcf draw seen a year ago.
Temperature forecasts remain on the colder-than-normal side, but the entire discussion of spring is less about any genuinely warmer weather coming than about the difficulty there will be in creating larger departures against historical norms. As we move through the heating season, drawdowns typically contract parabolic ally, and the room for there to be a really meaningful drawdown diminishes. Temperature variations – and their impact on molecule burning – typically recede as we end this month. Nonetheless, this week’s report could give us some change, and temperature outlooks remain for colder than normal readings.
In cash trading yesterday, Henry Hub prices were at $5.68-$5.77, up 0.09-$0.13 on the day (DJN). SoCal prices were at $5.70-$5.80, up $0.10-$0.10 on the day. El Paso Permian prices were up $0.09-$0.12 to $5.49-$5.62. Katy prices were up $0.11-$0.13 to $5.61-$5.70. Waha prices were up $0.16-$0.21 at $5.62-$5.75. Transco 6 was down $1.20-$4.25 at $7.00-$9.75/mmBtu, according to Dow Jones News (DJN). Traders sold northeastern pipelines somewhat yesterday.
Palo Verde prices were last quoted at $47.00-$50.00/mwh. Northeastern prices last traded at $41.85-$65.20. Entergy was last at $47.75-$48.25. Ercot was last at $49.00-$53.50/mwh.
Support is at $5.36-$5.39, $5.22-$5.25, $5.12-$5.14, $5.06-$5.08, $4.96-$4.99, $4.83-$4.85, $4.64-$4.66, $4.40-$4.43, $4.15-$4.17, $4.05-$4.08, $3.73-$3.75, $3.66-$3.68, $3.50-$3.53, $3.44-$3.46, $3.28-$3.32, $2.91-$2.93, $2.80-$2.82, $2.74-$2.75, and $2.69-$2.70. Resistance is at $5.55-$5.60, $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03, $6.09-$6.11, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37, $6.65-$6.69, $6.90-$6.94, $7.01-$7.04, $7.28-$7.31, and $7.34-$7.36.
Mar Natural Gas: Support: $5.36-$5.39, $5.23-$5.25, $5.12-$5.14, $5.06-$5.08, $4.96-$4.99, $4.83-$4.85.
Resistance: $5.55-$5.60, $5.71-$5.73, $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03, $6.09-$6.11, $6.15-$6.17.
Natural gas prices remain below their trendline. Yesterday’s decline looks bearish.
Dollars per million Btu
The long-term picture is still confused.
Dollars per million Btu
EIA Weekly Storage Figures
Last week’s EIA report showed a draw of 115 bcf on expectations for a draw of 122-124 bcf. Stocks are now 199 bcf higher than a year ago, against a surplus of 120 bcf a week ago, a surplus of 22 bcf two weeks ago and a surplus of 103 bcf three weeks ago. Stocks are now 9.02% higher than a year ago. They are 150 bcf and 6.65% above the five-year average.
For this week, the eight-year average (of similar Friday reports) was a draw of 158.58 bcf. The five-year average was a draw of 147.6 bcf. Last year’s draw was 159 bcf. The range over eight years was for draws of 98 to 259 bcf.
EIA Report
| Region | 01-29-10 | 01-22-10 | Change | Last Year | 5 Yr Avg |
| Cons East | 1251 | 1334 | dn 83 | 1105 | 1236 |
| Cons West | 359 | 380 | dn 21 | 337 | 301 |
| Producing | 796 | 807 | dn 11 | 765 | 720 |
| Total US | 2406 | 2521 | dn 115 | 2207 | 2256 |
Bcf, or Billions of cubic feet. Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy
News & Views
| In trading on Nymex, March crude oil prices were up $0.99 at $72.88/barrel at 8.30 AM EST, this morning. March heating oil prices were up 2.76 cents to 1.9131/gallon. March RBOB prices were up 2.25 cents to 1.9165. March natural gas prices were up $0.028 to $5.429/mmBtu. Oil prices were higher last night and this morning, primarily in response to weaker dollar values. Washington remains closed, so reports may be delayed. DOE Expectations The table below lists the first survey results for Dow Jones, Bloomberg and Reuters. The DOE report will be released at 10:30 AM EDT on Wednesday morning this week – unless changed today because Washington DC remains closed. Category Dow Jones Bloomberg Reuters Crude up 1.400 up 1.500 up 1.200 mln bbls Distillate dn 1.800 dn 1.500 dn 1.700 Gasoline up 0.200 up 0.500 up 0.300 Utilization up 0.3% unchanged up 0.2% 
Crude oil prices rallied slightly yesterday, but it would be premature to see a major reversal in this chart, we feel. There is some support at $68.55 and again at yesterday’s low of $70.77. | 
Heating oil prices rallied somewhat yesterday, but everything that had been support for so many months is now resistance. There is support in this market at 182.70, which was Friday’s low. DOE History: Distillate stocks have fallen in six of the last eight years, by an average of 2.838 mln bbls. The eight-year average is a draw of 1.991 mln bbls. Gasoline stocks rose in five of the last eight years, for a five-year build of 2.560 mln bbls and an eight-year average build of 0.867 mln bbls. Crude oil stocks have been higher in five of the last eight years for a five-year average build of 3.063 mln bbls and it has an eight-year average build of 0.940 mln bbls. Utilization has been higher in six of the last eight years (up 1.18%) and has an eight-year average increase of 0.56%, and it has an eight-year average utilization figure of 86.96%. The four-year, pre-hurricane utilization average was 89.08%. Since Katrina, refineries have run at an average utilization rate of 84.85%. Crude oil imports have been lower in three of the last six years, and the average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been down 374,000 bpd. The average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been 9.686 million bpd. Imports were 1.260 million bpd below that average in last week’s report. That’s 13.0% lower. |
| Crude prices have support above $68.50 and $70.75. | |
Washington DC remains closed this morning, and that makes it increasingly likely that tonight’s API report and tomorrow’s DOE report will be delayed. Heavy snowfall is predicted for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast late today going into tomorrow, and that could cause additional complications.
An Illustrated Look at Energy Market Factors
A Look at the US Dollar Versus the Euro
Dollar-Euro (dollar in euro cents): Three-Month Bar-Chart 
The US dollar moved sideways to higher yesterday, and it was slightly lower in trading after the normal session. Prices have effectively reached their objectives to the 72.80-73.00 area, and prices could consolidate from here.
http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forexqkchart&curcode1=USD&curcode2=EUR
A Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (djia)
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Six-Month Chart
The DJIA was down 103.84 points yesterday, as prices sagged after trying to advance. Investors continue to worry about the state of the US economic recovery here.
Source: http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=djia&sid=1643&time=6mo&Submit1=Refresh
A Look at Jet Fuel Prices
Prices in both New York Harbor and on the US Gulf Coast look heavy here.
The jet crack has been at relatively depressed levels for the last year, with only occasional spikes higher.
Even so, these “spikes” have been mild by previous standards.
Recommendations for Specific Market Segments
Heating Oil Distributors Heating oil prices now have support at Friday’s low (182.70) and at yesterday’s low (186.50), although neither of these has been tested yet, and we can only call them support because they have resisted allowing prices to decline further. They might not hold in any test. Fundamentally, the cold weather, which has been around for a solid week and is forecast to be with us for another 10 days to two weeks and possibly longer, should be more of a source of support. But, it has not been able to make it to the respectable incremental consumption level yet, because the baseload demand, determined largely by diesel use, has been so poor. Heating oil demand during a cold winter has had to be substituted for the normally continuous demand for diesel. We are still holding capped-price programs as insurance against any sudden rush to buy, which could occur because of bitterly cold weather, a change in economic factors or from petropolitical factors. Despite those possibilities, we see no rush to buy here. Diesel Users We would hold capped-price protection here, without adding more. NYH Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…192.55-193.05 plus 4.250 USG Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…189.55-190.05 plus 1.250 Jet/Kerosene Users & Airlines New York Harbor cash market differentials were 4.50 to 5.00 cents over January heating oil in NY Harbor and 0.75 over to 1.25 over the screen in the US Gulf. Anything under 4 cents is worth hedging. Diesel & Gasoline Marketers We would keep product hedged against lower prices. Gasoline Blenders & End-Users Prices have found support from 181.24 to 187.00, although none of it is strong, yet. We will wait until March to buy (more, next week). Prompt NYH Fuel Ethanol…..187.00-189.00 Prompt USG Fuel Ethanol….178.00-180.00 Quotes from 02-08-10 Heating Oil End-Users We would hold capped-price protection, strictly as a precaution, but we are not going to want to buy until early March (more on that next week, with our Seasonal Reports). Speculators We would hold off on adding fresh positions for now, with a view towards buying in early March (more on that next week). Refiners The 7:5+2 crack spread was $7.56 yesterday. Crude Oil Producers Crude oil prices now have support at yesterday’s low of $70.77 ($70.75) and at Friday’s low of $69.50 and then again at $68.59. It remains to be seen if they can hold these levels. | Prompt Jet Fuel Prices New York Harbor 193.05-193.55 US Gulf 189.30-189.80 Midwest (Group Three) 189.55-190.55 Midwest (Chicago) 184.55-188.55 Los Angeles 192.00-193.00 San Francisco 192.00-193.00 Portland, Oregon 192.00-193.00 Cents per gallon Propane Prices Mont Belvieu……….…..non-TET………$1.336250 Cents per gallon  Gasoline prices rallied yesterday, along with the rest of the complex, and it now has support at 185.19, 184.19, 182.63, and 181.24, so we have a number of support levels beneath this market. Prices would need to break down below all of those, especially 181.24 in order to kick the trend lower into a new gear.
Sell-stops have already been triggered below 188.99. This is a market on the ropes here, technically, but it may be a market that has found enough support to hold on without plunging to new lows. This week’s statistics could decide whether that support will hold. |
We will publish our Spring Seasonals next week.