Prices for February 10th, 2010
| HEATING OIL cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | MAR | 196.12 | 190.76 | 194.69 | up 00.96 | | APR | 196.72 | 191.54 | 195.42 | up 00.98 | | MAY | 197.44 | 192.47 | 196.25 | up 00.92 | | JUN | 198.55 | 193.43 | 197.32 | up 00.84 | | JUL | 200.06 | 195.50 | 199.19 | up 00.74 | | AUG | 201.50 | 197.19 | 201.17 | up 00.65 | | SEP | 203.61 | 199.72 | 203.32 | up 00.56 | | OCT | 205.25 | 201.97 | 205.75 | up 00.55 | | NOV | 207.32 | 204.60 | 208.12 | up 00.54 | | DEC | 211.53 | 201.49 | 210.48 | up 00.53 | | JAN | 209.90 | 204.60 | 212.87 | up 00.52 | | FEB | ---.-- | ---.-- | ---.-- | -- --.-- | | Estimated Volume (day before) total all prev day 93,301 | | NYMEX CRUDE OIL dollars per barrel | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | MAR | 74.97 | 72.60 | 74.52 | up 00.77 | | APR | 75.32 | 72.97 | 74.89 | up 00.69 | | MAY | 75.72 | 73.43 | 75.34 | up 00.63 | | JUN | 76.17 | 73.95 | 75.83 | up 00.59 | | JUL | 76.60 | 74.58 | 76.31 | up 00.54 | | AUG | 76.82 | 75.00 | 76.74 | up 00.49 | | | | | | | | | Estimated Volume… 793,740 Opec Basket…$69.76 up $0.90
Prompt #2 Oil NYH 88..-1.25 to -1.00, 74 Lo S…+1.00 to +1.25
US Gulf 88 grade…-4.50 to -4.25, 74 grade Lo S…-1.50 to -1.00 Group .........-6.25 to -5.75 Lo S.....-6.25 to -5.75
Chicago ......-6.50 to -5.50 cash quotes by Dow Jones | | | |
| NYMEX RBOB GASOLINE cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | MAR | 194.70 | 188.92 | 192.90 | up 00.00 | | APR | 206.48 | 200.75 | 205.07 | up 00.57 | | MAY | 207.30 | 202.20 | 206.51 | up 00.67 | | JUN | 207.36 | 202.98 | 206.97 | up 00.74 | | JUL | 207.30 | 202.55 | 206.64 | up 00.80 | | AUG | 202.11 | 202.11 | 205.88 | up 00.83 | | SEP | 205.00 | 201.18 | 204.96 | up 00.84 | | OCT | 194.14 | 190.21 | 194.35 | up 00.75 | | Estimated RB Volume day before 120,302 | | NYMEX NATURAL GAS dollars per mmBtu | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | MAR | 5.380 | 5.240 | 5.292 | up 0.002 | | APR | 5.353 | 5.222 | 5.278 | up 0.013 | | MAY | 5.408 | 5.288 | 5.340 | up 0.012 | | JUN | 5.466 | 5.367 | 5.420 | up 0.014 | | | Estimated Volume…day before (316,016)
Nymex statistics are based on composite Access & Day Sessions
Prompt Gasoline NYH M5 -1.25 /-1.00 RBOB +3.75 /+4.25
US Gulf M4: -5.75 to -5.25 RBOB -0.75 to -0.25
L.A. Conv Reg 197.00-198.00, N-grade Group 185.15-185.65 Chi 174.65-175.65 | |
Market Review for Wednesday & the Abominable Snowstorm
ITH snow falling heavily across the New York Metropolitan area, a number of traders and brokers either did not go to work or decided to leave early yesterday. Oil prices started the day moving higher, but the US dollar was stronger, the DJIA was lower and the only supply report we had – that from the API – showed a huge build in crude oil stocks and extremely low demand in gasoline. This was not balanced by anything special in distillate demand, where implied demand was average to below average for this time of year.
As a result of all of those factors, oil prices sold off fairly quickly, and they remained under selling pressure throughout the morning. The dollar continued to rally, and that allowed traders to focus on the build of 7.9 million barrels in the API crude oil inventory figure and on continuing low implied demand figures, especially in gasoline (where the API had it at roughly 8.3 million bpd). The distillate number was better, but it still failed to break above 4 million bpd, which was disappointing.
| Fuel for Thought In its monthly short-term energy outlook, released yesterday, the EIA said that non-Opec output grew by 560,000 bpd in 2009, and it is expected to increase by 430,000 bpd this year, before dropping by 120,000 bpd in 2011. Gains this year will come from the US, Brazil and Azerbaijan. In 2011, mature fields will start to decline in output. Opec still expects global output to grow 800,000 bpd in 2010 to 85.1 mln bpd. It blamed economic uncertainty in the US for poor demand growth, and it also noted that its own compliance with quotas dropped to 53.5% in January, down from 56% in December. Nigerian output dropped by 124,000 bpd in January as sabotage resumed there. |
As the day wore on, and as volume slowly deteriorated, prices started to rally. This seems to have been in sympathy with a rally in equities, and came as the EIA released its latest global oil demand projections. The EIA projects an increase in first quarter global demand of 2.1% to 85.18 million bpd. It is looking for an increase of 1.76 million bpd in February, with all of the growth in demand coming from developing nations. US first quarter demand is expected to rise 0.4% to 18.91 mln bpd. It would be the first year-on-year quarterly increase since third quarter, 2007, but it would also be a drop of 0.9% from estimates issued a month ago. OECD consumption is expected to be unchanged from a year ago, at 46.38 mln bpd; non-OECD consumption is slated to rise 4.8% to 38.79 mln bpd. For the full year, the EIA is looking for a 1.4% increase in oil demand, to 85.3 mln bpd. It is expected to rise 1.8% in 2011 to 86.86 mln bpd. The forecasted increases seem to have encouraged some buying.
The EIA expects distillate stocks to end February at their highest levels since 1981, placing inventories 16.7% higher than the five-year average. Ending January stocks were the highest since 1983.
Technicals
The oil complex traded on both sides of unchanged yesterday, first higher, then sharply lower and then back up again to finish in positive territory. Its initial decline seems to have been predicated on a stronger dollar, while its rally later seems to have been mostly influenced by a rally in equities prices. All three major contracts have support beneath them, but seem to have had rallies in otherwise mostly bearish markets.
Cents per gallon
Above: Gasoline prices have been working effectively sideways since last May.
March crude oil now has buy-stops over $75.00, $77.20, $78.05, $78.36, $79.31-$79.47, $80.67, $82.35, $83.95, $84.83, $85.13, $89.82, $90.99, $93.02, $96.03, and $100.37. Sell-stops are under $72.60, $71.30, $70.75, $69.30, $68.55, $68.00, $65.80-$66.20, and $64.95. March heating oil has buy-stops over 196.15, 202.65, 203.75, 204.45, 205.75, 208.10, 210.91, 211.90, 217.55, 222.72, 225.80, 227.05, 229.08, 238.95, 249.62, and 251.50. Sell stops are under 190.75, 187.45, 186.50, 182.63, 177.00, 176.68, 173.75, 171.10, 170.35, and 168.60. March RBOB has buy-stops over 194.90, 195.95-196.00, 203.75, 206.65, 206.88-207.35, 208.30, 214.60, 219.27, 222.70, 228.86, 240.10, 250.40, 252.00, 265.10, 267.85, 270.85, 272.00, and 280.25. Sell-stops are under 188.90, 188.25, 187.00, 184.15, 182.40, 181.20, 179.20, 177.30, 175.14, 171.40, and 170.25.
Football: The bears lost eight yards on third and 36, making it fourth and 44. The bulls are certain to take over today.
Technical Support & Resistance
Mar crude oil Support: $72.60-$72.75, $71.15-$71.30, $70.55-$70.70, $69.30-$69.45, $68.50-$68.60.
Resistance: $74.85-$75.00, $77.05-$77.20, $77.95-$78.05, $78.25-$78.36, $79.31-$79.50.
Mar heating oil Support: 190.75-190.90, 187.45-187.60, 186.50-186.65, 182.60-182.75, 177.00-177.20.
Resistance: 195.95-196.15, 202.50-202.62, 203.50-203.72, 204.35-204.45, 205.60-205.75.
Mar Rbob Support: 188.90-189.00, 188.25-188.40, 187.00-187.15, 184.15-184.30, 182.40-182.55.
Resistance: 194.70-194.90, 195.80-195.95, 203.60-203.75, 206.25-206.35, 206.60-206.65.
Oil Inventory Reports
This week’s DOE report does not have as strong a history as many of the recent reports we have reviewed. The best proportion of years in one direction was six years out of eight for lower distillate stocks. Utilization was also higher in six of the last eight years (for an average increase of 0.563%). Both crude oil and gasoline stocks were higher in five of the last eight years, and there have been some big builds (4.9 million bbls in gasoline stocks in 2005, and 4.9 mln bbls in crude in 2006). Crude oil imports have trended lower this week, although the eight-year average bears no relation to what we will see this week.
Last Week’s Inventory Comparison: Distillate stocks are now 12.8 million bbls, or 8.91%, higher than a year ago. Heating oil inventories are 3.9 mln bbls, or 10.24%, higher than they were a year ago. Gasoline stocks are 10.8 mln bbls (up 4.97%) higher against a year ago. Crude oil stocks are now 21.3 million bbls, or 6.08%, lower than a year ago. Residual stocks are 4.2 mln bbls (11.83%) higher than a year ago, jet fuel stocks are 2.9 mln bbls, (7.20%) higher than a year ago. Utilization is 5.80% lower than a year ago and 8.70% below the eight-year average. It is 9.88% lower than the four-year, pre-Katrina average and 7.52% below the average of the four years since the big hurricanes (Katrina & Rita) in 2005.
Last Week’s Demand: Four-week, total refined products demand came in at 18.750 million bpd, down 0.003 mln bbls on the week, and down 0.375 mln bpd and 1.96% against a year ago. Four weeks ago, it was 0.050 mln bpd and 0.26% higher than a year ago. Four-week gasoline demand is at 8.644 mln bpd, down 0.53%, compared to up 0.32% four weeks ago. It fell 32,000 bpd on the week. Four-week distillate demand is now at 3.705 mln bpd, down 9.08%, compared to down 0.98% four weeks ago. Four-week jet demand is now at 1.360 mln bpd, up 0.22% against a year ago, compared to up 8.17% four weeks ago. Four-week residual fuel demand is at 0.461 mln bpd, down 34.14%, compared to down 1.19% 11 weeks ago. Propane use is up 13.63%, at 1.634 mln bpd.
This Week’s API Report: This week’s API report showed a build of 7.195 mln bbls in crude oil stocks, a draw of 1.531 mln bbls in distillate stocks and a build of 1.552 mln bbls in gasoline inventories. Utilization was down 1.0% to 77.0%. Implied demand came in at a paltry 8.320 mln bpd in gasoline and at 3.957 mln bpd in distillate. Crude oil imports were down 0.096 mln bpd to 8.375 mln bpd. Gasoline demand was so low we checked our figures twice. Production was 8.274 mln bpd.
DOE Weekly Inventory Statistics
| Category | Final DOE Estimate
This Week’s Estimate | History
Last Year’s Report | Most Recent Changes
Last Week’s DOE Report | Versus A Year Ago
Millions of Barrels |
| Distillate | dn 2.00 to 2.50 mln bbls | dn 1.066 | dn 0.948 mln bbls | up 12.800 |
| Gasoline | up 1.00 to 1.50 | dn 2.662 | dn 1.306 | up 10.800 |
| Crude oil | up 1.25 to 2.25 | up 4.717 | up 2.317 | dn 21.300 |
| Utilization | up 0.3% to 0.8% | dn 1.9% at 81.6% | dn 0.75% at 77.70% | |
| Crude Imports | dn 0.000 to 0.500 mmbd | dn 0.385 to 9.652 | up 0.559 to 8.426 mln bpd | |
| DOE Distillate Demand | 3.659 mln bpd | dn 066,000 | Gasoline Demand | 8.613 mln bpd | dn 006,000 |
| DOE Distillate Production | 3.484 mln bpd | dn 032,000 | Gasoline Production | 8.584 mln bpd | dn 052,000 |
| DOE Distillate Imports | 0.438 mln bpd | dn 220,000 | Gasoline Imports | 0.926 mln bpd | up 103,000 |
Source: US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration
Open Interest Analysis
Crude oil open interest fell by 1,031 contracts on Tuesday, when prices rallied. That looks like short-covering, which would be bearish. We are surprised that it was not fresh buying.
Heating oil open interest rose by 1,743 contracts on Tuesday, when prices were higher. That looks like new buying and is supportive.
RBOB open interest grew by 2,864 contracts on Tuesday, when prices were higher. That looks like new buying, which would be supportive.
Natural gas open interest fell by 5,256 on Tuesday, when prices were lower. That looks like long liquidation and would be supportive.
Tuesday’s Open Interest Changes:
Crude 1,307,602 dn 1,031 Heat 313,712 up 1,743 RBOB 258,438 up 2,864 Nat gas 775,827 dn 5,256
CFTC Commitments of Traders for Nymex (for the period ended Tuesday, Feb 2nd)
Crude oil prices gained $2.57bbl over the latest reporting period, and the best buying came from the “other reportables” category, which added 1,623 longs, but which also added 1,123 new shorts. Producers covered 6,749 shorts and liquidated 8,284 longs. Managed Money liquidated 2,386 longs and added 160 shorts while Swap Dealers liquidated 802 longs and covered 515 shorts. Based on these figures, we must deduce that day-trading helped push quotes higher – none of this did.
In heating oil futures, prices were up 7.34 cents a gallon, and the best net buying came from Swap Dealers, who bought 3,861 new longs and covered 72 shorts. Producers bought 832 longs and covered 4,783 shorts. Managed Money was on the short side, liquidating 1,388 longs and adding 2,498 new shorts. Other Reportables liquidated 698 longs and added 99 shorts. The motive buying, though, seems to have come from Swap Dealers on this round.
Gasoline prices gained 4.49 cents a gallon during the period under review. Producer short-covering seems to have given us the best buying; Producers liquidated 5,079 longs and covered 9,475 shorts. Swap dealers liquidated 1,444 longs and covered 720 shorts. Other reportables liquidated 212 longs and covered 769 shorts. Managed Money liquidated 2,406 and added 908.
In natural gas, prices gained 3.2 cents during the period under review. Producers added 130 longs and added 2,442 shorts. Swap dealers added 6,926 longs and added 5,048 shorts. Other Reportables added 280 longs and added 3,861 shorts. Net short-covering by Managed Money, which liquidated 11,763 longs and covered 18,540 shorts, was the motive force.
Natural Gas & Utility Generation
Natural gas prices were up very lightly yesterday, after spending most of the session in positive territory. Traders seem to have returned to weather forecasts, yesterday, as their main source of motivation in this market, following two days during which traders seem to have placed their focus on the recent EIA underground storage reports. As we noted yesterday, those reports have returned us to a year-on-year surplus of 199 bcf, or 9.02%, and, against the five-year average, a surplus of 150 bcf and 6.65%. Three weeks ago, they had been whittled down to nearly unchanged.
Yesterday’s mild gains could be the beginning of a new calculus, in which traders start to look ahead to this week’s report and possibly to the one behind. Dow Jones is looking for a drawdown of 183 bcf in this week’s report, while Bloomberg is looking for a pull of 180 bcf. Its range of expectations was between 160 and 210 bcf.
This week’s storage report has a five-year average drawdown of 148-155 bcf, depending on whether one uses similar Friday reports or precise dates. Last year, there was a draw of 159-164 bcf. Based on these figures, the market needs to price in a decline of roughly 20-25 bcf in the surpluses. If next week’s estimates come in near this week’s, we would be looking for a further reduction of as much as 50 bcf more in next week’s figures. It is at this point that the weather forecasts for the near and medium terms become so important.
Private forecasters agree with the NWS that temperatures should continue on their present course of being colder than normal through the final week of February. At this point, most of these forecasts see colder weather out to February 23rd or 24th. As has been the case recently, the colder readings are expected for most of the country east of the Rockies, and definitely east of the Mississippi. If the temperatures do come in as expected, we should see a steady reduction in the surpluses against both a year ago and against the five-year average. What makes the next two reports so compelling, though, is that amounts will start to decline after they are released, making it harder to eat into surpluses.
In cash trading Tuesday, Henry Hub prices were at $5.49-$5.60, down 0.17-$0.19 on the day (DJN). SoCal prices were at $5.50-$5.59, down $0.20-$0.21 on the day. El Paso Permian prices were down $0.16-$0.19 to $5.30-$5.46. Katy prices were down $0.17-$0.19 to $5.42-$5.53. Waha prices were down $0.22-$0.22 at $5.40-$5.53. Transco 6 was down $2.25 and up $0.15 at $7.15-$7.50/mmBtu, according to Dow Jones News (DJN). Traders sold northeastern pipelines somewhat yesterday.
Palo Verde prices were last quoted at $47.50-$52.00/mwh. Northeastern prices last traded at $39.00-$64.50. Entergy was last at $48.75-$49.25. Ercot was last at $47.00-$50.00/mwh.
Support is at $5.22-$5.25, $5.12-$5.14, $5.06-$5.08, $4.96-$4.99, $4.83-$4.85, $4.64-$4.66, $4.40-$4.43, $4.15-$4.17, $4.05-$4.08, $3.73-$3.75, $3.66-$3.68, $3.50-$3.53, $3.44-$3.46, $3.28-$3.32, $2.91-$2.93, $2.80-$2.82, $2.74-$2.75, and $2.69-$2.70. Resistance is at $5.37-$5.39, $5.46-$5.47, $5.55-$5.60, $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03, $6.09-$6.11, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37, $6.65-$6.69, $6.90-$6.94, $7.01-$7.04, $7.28-$7.31, and $7.34-$7.36.
Mar Natural Gas: Support: $5.22-$5.25, $5.12-$5.14, $5.06-$5.08, $4.96-$4.99, $4.83-$4.85, $4.64-$4.66.
Resistance: $5.37-$5.39, $5.46-$5.47, $5.55-$5.60, $5.71-$5.73, $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03.
Natural gas prices remain below their trendline, but they may be trying to establish new support.
Dollars per million Btu
The ratio of crude to natural gas was 14.08-to-one yesterday. The average sine 2002 is 9.28-to-one.
Dollars per million Btu
EIA Weekly Storage Figures
Last week’s EIA report showed a draw of 115 bcf on expectations for a draw of 122-124 bcf. Stocks are now 199 bcf higher than a year ago, against a surplus of 120 bcf a week ago, a surplus of 22 bcf two weeks ago and a surplus of 103 bcf three weeks ago. Stocks are now 9.02% higher than a year ago. They are 150 bcf and 6.65% above the five-year average.
For this week, the eight-year average (of similar Friday reports) was a draw of 158.58 bcf. The five-year average was a draw of 147.6 bcf. Last year’s draw was 159 bcf. The EIA report will be released at 10:30 AM EDT on Friday morning.
EIA Report
| Region | 01-29-10 | 01-22-10 | Change | Last Year | 5 Yr Avg |
| Cons East | 1251 | 1334 | dn 83 | 1105 | 1236 |
| Cons West | 359 | 380 | dn 21 | 337 | 301 |
| Producing | 796 | 807 | dn 11 | 765 | 720 |
| Total US | 2406 | 2521 | dn 115 | 2207 | 2256 |
Bcf, or Billions of cubic feet. Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy
News & Views
| In trading on Nymex, March crude oil prices were up $0.44 at $74.96/barrel at 8.30 AM EST, this morning. March heating oil prices were up 1.66 cents to 1.9635/gallon. March RBOB prices were up 0.51 cents to 1.9341. March natural gas prices were up $0.068 to $5.360/mmBtu. The dollar is higher, but so are equities. Traders seem to be buying on stronger equities and on continuing cold weather forecasts. DOE Expectations The table below lists the final survey results for Dow Jones, Bloomberg and Reuters. The DOE report will be released at 11:00 AM EDT on Friday morning this week because of the huge snow storm experienced in Washington, DC. Category Dow Jones Bloomberg Reuters Crude up 1.300 up 1.500 up 1.500 mln bbls Distillate dn 1.800 dn 1.600 dn 1.900 Gasoline up 0.100 up 0.300 up 0.500 Utilization up 0.3% up 0.1% up 0.2% 
Crude oil prices started higher, worked lower and then ended on a firmer note yesterday. equities and a weaker US dollar. Crude has support at $68.55 and again at $70.77. | 
Heating oil prices were lower yesterday morning, but rallied into the afternoon to finish in positive territory. Major support remains in this market at 182.70, which was Friday’s low. DOE History: Distillate stocks have fallen in six of the last eight years, by an average of 2.838 mln bbls. The eight-year average is a draw of 1.991 mln bbls. Gasoline stocks rose in five of the last eight years, for a five-year build of 2.560 mln bbls and an eight-year average build of 0.867 mln bbls. Crude oil stocks have been higher in five of the last eight years for a five-year average build of 3.063 mln bbls and it has an eight-year average build of 0.940 mln bbls. Utilization has been higher in six of the last eight years (up 1.18%) and has an eight-year average increase of 0.56%, and it has an eight-year average utilization figure of 86.96%. The four-year, pre-hurricane utilization average was 89.08%. Since Katrina, refineries have run at an average utilization rate of 84.85%. Crude oil imports have been lower in three of the last six years, and the average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been down 374,000 bpd. The average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been 9.686 million bpd. Imports were 1.260 million bpd below that average in last week’s report. That’s 13.0% lower. |
| Crude prices were higher again yesterday in thin trading. | |
Oil prices are a little overvalued today, based on the factors we have. The dollar has been strong, and oil prices have still rallied. Part of that seems to have been short-covering by traders that left early yesterday. And, while the API report has had a chance to cast a longer shadow this week, the market has not discounted a crude build of 7.9 mln bbls.
An Illustrated Look at Energy Market Factors
A Look at the US Dollar Versus the Euro
Dollar-Euro (dollar in euro cents): Three-Month Bar-Chart 
The US dollar was higher yesterday, but it sold off in trading yesterday late afternoon and evening. They are currently trading in a consolidation zone, which may be a continuation pattern – or a top.
http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forexqkchart&curcode1=USD&curcode2=EUR
A Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (djia)
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Six-Month Chart
The DJIA ended the day down 20 points yesterday, after having traded significantly lower than that earlier. The averages finished the day nearer the day’s highs. Investors continue to watch events in Europe, with the focus on Greece.
Source: http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=djia&sid=1643&time=6mo&Submit1=Refresh
A Look at Crack Spreads
The 7:5+2 crack spread has been moving mostly sideways for the new year.
The heat crack dropped at the start of the year and has been working sideways since then.
The gas crack has been improving very slightly since October.
Recommendations for Specific Market Segments
Heating Oil Distributors Heating oil prices now have support at Friday’s low (182.70), Monday’s low (186.50), and Tuesday’s low (187.47). Prices gained slightly again yesterday in thin trading dominated by the big snow storm in the Northeast. Traders are likely to continue to take directional cues today from the US dollar and from equities, but as we get to the afternoon part of trading, we should expect to see traders position themselves ahead of tomorrow’s DOE figures. This week’s API implied demand number has to be seen as being disappointing, so it will be interesting to see if that is taken as the baseline against which traders try to determine tomorrow’s DOE figures. So far this season, heating needs have failed to give demand any noticeable incremental boost. We are still holding capped-price programs as insurance against the kind of rally we are seeing right now, but it still has very little to do with supply or demand. Diesel Users We would hold capped-price protection here, without adding more. NYH Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…198.45-198.95 plus 4.000 USG Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…194.95-195.45 plus 0.500 Jet/Kerosene Users & Airlines New York Harbor cash market differentials were 3.25 to 3.50 cents over January heating oil in NY Harbor and 0.50 under to 0.25 under the screen in the US Gulf. Anything under 4 cents is worth hedging. Diesel & Gasoline Marketers We would keep product hedged against lower prices. Gasoline Blenders & End-Users Prices have found support from 181.24 to 187.00, although none of it is strong, yet. We will wait until March to buy (more, next week). Prompt NYH Fuel Ethanol…..186.00-189.00 Prompt USG Fuel Ethanol….178.00-181.00 Quotes from 02-10-10 Heating Oil End-Users We would hold capped-price protection, strictly as a precaution, but we are not going to want to buy until early March (more on that next week, with our Seasonal Reports). Speculators We would hold off on adding fresh positions for now, with a view towards buying in early March (more on that next week). Refiners The 7:5+2 crack spread was $6.71 yesterday. Crude Oil Producers Crude oil prices rallied slightly yesterday. Until the DOE figures are released tomorrow, movement here will get its impetus from equities and currencies. | Prompt Jet Fuel Prices New York Harbor 197.95-198.20 US Gulf 194.20-194.45 Midwest (Group Three) 192.70-194.70 Midwest (Chicago) 193.20-194.70 Los Angeles 198.00-199.00 San Francisco 198.00-199.00 Portland, Oregon 198.00-199.00 Cents per gallon Propane Prices Mont Belvieu……….…..non-TET………$1.306250 Cents per gallon  Gasoline prices had an almost identical day yesterday to the one seen on Tuesday. Prices tried to trade lower in the morning, then rallied in the afternoon, and then they finished unchanged on the day. The technical picture is not much changed today.
It still has support spread beneath it at 185.19, 184.19, 182.63, and 181.24, so we have a number of support levels beneath this market. Prices would need to break down below all of those, especially 181.24 in order to kick the trend lower into a new gear. |