Prices for February 11th, 2010
| HEATING OIL cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | MAR | 197.67 | 192.41 | 196.30 | up 01.61 | | APR | 198.36 | 193.12 | 197.12 | up 01.70 | | MAY | 199.04 | 194.10 | 197.97 | up 01.72 | | JUN | 200.24 | 195.53 | 199.04 | up 01.72 | | JUL | 201.41 | 197.57 | 200.92 | up 01.73 | | AUG | 203.45 | 201.26 | 202.93 | up 01.76 | | SEP | 205.64 | 201.46 | 205.09 | up 01.77 | | OCT | 208.00 | 205.71 | 207.52 | up 01.77 | | NOV | 208.76 | 208.08 | 209.89 | up 01.77 | | DEC | 212.65 | 208.33 | 212.25 | up 01.77 | | JAN | 215.25 | 215.25 | 214.64 | up 01.77 | | FEB | ---.-- | ---.-- | ---.-- | -- --.-- | | Estimated Volume (day before) total all prev day 85,053 | | NYMEX CRUDE OIL dollars per barrel | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | MAR | 75.69 | 73.38 | 75.28 | up 00.76 | | APR | 76.13 | 73.80 | 75.72 | up 00.83 | | MAY | 76.59 | 74.28 | 76.23 | up 00.89 | | JUN | 77.08 | 74.77 | 76.73 | up 00.90 | | JUL | 77.50 | 75.24 | 77.21 | up 00.90 | | AUG | 77.72 | 75.65 | 77.63 | up 00.89 | | | | | | | | | Estimated Volume… 743,295 Opec Basket…$70.78 up $1.02
Prompt #2 Oil NYH 88..-1.50 to -1.00, 74 Lo S…+0.50 to +1.00
US Gulf 88 grade…-4.40 to -4.15, 74 grade Lo S…-1.50 to -1.00 Group .........-6.25 to -5.75 Lo S.....-6.25 to -5.75
Chicago ......-6.50 to -5.50 cash quotes by Dow Jones | | | |
| NYMEX RBOB GASOLINE cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | MAR | 194.65 | 189.23 | 193.57 | up 00.67 | | APR | 207.41 | 202.17 | 206.57 | up 01.50 | | MAY | 208.80 | 204.10 | 208.07 | up 01.56 | | JUN | 209.16 | 204.50 | 208.58 | up 01.61 | | JUL | 208.40 | 205.43 | 208.34 | up 01.70 | | AUG | 207.14 | 206.62 | 207.62 | up 01.74 | | SEP | 206.64 | 203.96 | 206.73 | up 01.77 | | OCT | ---.-- | ---.-- | ---.-- | -- --.-- | | Estimated RB Volume day before 108,199 | | NYMEX NATURAL GAS dollars per mmBtu | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | MAR | 5.416 | 5.286 | 5.396 | up 0.104 | | APR | 5.395 | 5.273 | 5.383 | up 0.105 | | MAY | 5.455 | 5.342 | 5.443 | up 0.103 | | JUN | 5.530 | 5.412 | 5.520 | up 0.100 | | | Estimated Volume…day before (327,843)
Nymex statistics are based on composite Access & Day Sessions
Prompt Gasoline NYH M5 -1.50 /-1.25 RBOB +3.25 /+3.75
US Gulf M4: -5.00 to -4.50 RBOB +0.50 to +1.00
L.A. Conv Reg 197.00-198.00, N-grade Group 185.15-185.65 Chi 174.65-175.65 | |
Market Review for Thursday
EW Yorkers dug out a little more easily than their counterparts in Washington, DC, and the markets were open and moving yesterday. Oil prices were higher overnight on Wednesday, they sold off as the US dollar rallied, but they rallied later in the day when equities rallied. By the time everything was said and done, oil prices were higher, the DJIA was up 105.81 points and the US dollar was higher, too. The dollar revisited its recent highs at roughly 72.80 euro cents, but could not break above that level. Prices sold off slightly, but rallied last night.
Last week, the [strength in the] US dollar was the leading factor behind the weakness in oil prices. So far this week, the dollar has been a factor, but equities have been bigger. Yesterday was a prime example of that, with oil prices choosing to follow equities higher rather than weaken in the face of a stronger dollar. Of course, fundamentals have not really had a chance to influence prices yet. Today, they will. The DOE report will be released at 11 AM this morning.
| Fuel for Thought Iran claimed yesterday that it has succeeded in enriching uranium to nearly 20%, a first step on the road to becoming a full-fledged “nuclear state.” While some dispute whether Iran could actually have achieved this so quickly, there is little doubt that the stakes have been raised. At the same time, Iran says that Russia has promised delivery soon of an advanced air defense system that could make it more difficult to attack Iranian nuclear facilities. And Iran’s government has cracked down on dissidents there, in what the US has called “a near-total information blockade.” Long story short: The window for decisive military action against Iran’s nuclear program is closing, and that could force the issue. This adds a huge risk. |
Some observers feel that oil prices might have gained more if the weekly DOE report were not scheduled for this morning. Recent reports have shown weak demand which has been trending towards getting worse rather than better. Inventories have been generally diminishing, especially in relation to a year ago, but they remain significantly higher than the multi-year averages.
One of the most important numbers today will be distillate inventories, which ended January at their highest level since 1983 and February stocks are expected (by the EIA) to end this month at their highest level since 1981. Last week, distillate stocks were 12.8 million barrels, or 8.91% higher than a year ago, but a year ago, they were also 12.8 million barrels and 9.86% higher than they had been in 2008. Crude oil stocks have now moved below year ago levels; they are 21.3 million barrels, or 6.08% lower than a year ago. But, a year ago, they were 50.3 million barrels, or 17.00%, higher than they had been in 2008. The big rise in API crude stocks was effectively ignored this week.
Today’s report is likely to determine the course of prices into the close, but the market is closed on Monday, so we could see moves that don’t seem to fit.
Technicals
So far, it has been a perfect week for the bulls in heating oil and crude oil. Gasoline prices have not been lower, but they have had a ‘draw.’ Despite the bullish changes this week, momentum higher has been lacking, and there is no real punch to the moves higher. A single big decline could wipe out the gains seen this week. And prices have done little to suggest they are building any kind of major bullish platform for movement higher.
Cents per gallon
Above: Heating oil prices have been higher every day this week, but they are still below the trendline they broke recently.
March crude oil now has buy-stops over $75.70, $77.20, $78.05, $78.36, $79.31-$79.47, $80.67, $82.35, $83.95, $84.83, $85.13, $89.82, $90.99, $93.02, $96.03, and $100.37. Sell-stops are under $73.35, $72.60, $71.30, $70.75, $69.30, $68.55, $68.00, $65.80-$66.20, and $64.95. March heating oil has buy-stops over 197.70, 202.65, 203.75, 204.45, 205.75, 208.10, 210.91, 211.90, 217.55, 222.72, 225.80, 227.05, 229.08, 238.95, 249.62, and 251.50. Sell stops are under 192.40, 190.75, 187.45, 186.50, 182.63, 177.00, 176.68, 173.75, 171.10, 170.35, and 168.60. March RBOB has buy-stops over 194.90, 195.95-196.00, 203.75, 206.65, 206.88-207.35, 208.30, 214.60, 219.27, 222.70, 228.86, 240.10, 250.40, 252.00, 265.10, 267.85, 270.85, 272.00, and 280.25. Sell-stops are under 188.90, 188.25, 187.00, 184.15, 182.40, 181.20, 179.20, 177.30, 175.14, 171.40, and 170.25.
Football: The bears lost another eight yards on fourth and 44, and that gives the bulls a fresh set of downs to work with.
Technical Support & Resistance
Mar crude oil Support: $73.35-$73.50, $72.60-$72.75, $71.15-$71.30, $70.55-$70.70, $69.30-$69.45.
Resistance: $75.60-$75.70, $77.05-$77.20, $77.95-$78.05, $78.25-$78.36, $79.31-$79.50.
Mar heating oil Support: 192.40-192.55, 190.75-190.90, 187.45-187.60, 186.50-186.65, 182.60-182.75.
Resistance: 197.55-197.70, 202.50-202.62, 203.50-203.72, 204.35-204.45, 205.60-205.75.
Mar Rbob Support: 188.90-189.00, 188.25-188.40, 187.00-187.15, 184.15-184.30, 182.40-182.55.
Resistance: 194.65-194.90, 195.80-195.95, 203.60-203.75, 206.25-206.35, 206.60-206.65.
Oil Inventory Reports
This week’s DOE report does not have as strong a history as many of the recent reports we have reviewed. The best proportion of years in one direction was six years out of eight for lower distillate stocks. Utilization was also higher in six of the last eight years (for an average increase of 0.563%). Both crude oil and gasoline stocks were higher in five of the last eight years, and there have been some big builds (4.9 million bbls in gasoline stocks in 2005, and 4.9 mln bbls in crude in 2006). Crude oil imports have trended lower this week, although the eight-year average bears no relation to what we will see this week.
Last Week’s Inventory Comparison: Distillate stocks are now 12.8 million bbls, or 8.91%, higher than a year ago. Heating oil inventories are 3.9 mln bbls, or 10.24%, higher than they were a year ago. Gasoline stocks are 10.8 mln bbls (up 4.97%) higher against a year ago. Crude oil stocks are now 21.3 million bbls, or 6.08%, lower than a year ago. Residual stocks are 4.2 mln bbls (11.83%) higher than a year ago, jet fuel stocks are 2.9 mln bbls, (7.20%) higher than a year ago. Utilization is 5.80% lower than a year ago and 8.70% below the eight-year average. It is 9.88% lower than the four-year, pre-Katrina average and 7.52% below the average of the four years since the big hurricanes (Katrina & Rita) in 2005.
Last Week’s Demand: Four-week, total refined products demand came in at 18.750 million bpd, down 0.003 mln bbls on the week, and down 0.375 mln bpd and 1.96% against a year ago. Four weeks ago, it was 0.050 mln bpd and 0.26% higher than a year ago. Four-week gasoline demand is at 8.644 mln bpd, down 0.53%, compared to up 0.32% four weeks ago. It fell 32,000 bpd on the week. Four-week distillate demand is now at 3.705 mln bpd, down 9.08%, compared to down 0.98% four weeks ago. Four-week jet demand is now at 1.360 mln bpd, up 0.22% against a year ago, compared to up 8.17% four weeks ago. Four-week residual fuel demand is at 0.461 mln bpd, down 34.14%, compared to down 1.19% 11 weeks ago. Propane use is up 13.63%, at 1.634 mln bpd.
This Week’s API Report: This week’s API report showed a build of 7.195 mln bbls in crude oil stocks, a draw of 1.531 mln bbls in distillate stocks and a build of 1.552 mln bbls in gasoline inventories. Utilization was down 1.0% to 77.0%. Implied demand came in at a paltry 8.320 mln bpd in gasoline and at 3.957 mln bpd in distillate. Crude oil imports were down 0.096 mln bpd to 8.375 mln bpd. Gasoline demand was so low we checked our figures twice. Production was 8.274 mln bpd.
DOE Weekly Inventory Statistics
| Category | Final DOE Estimate
This Week’s Estimate | History
Last Year’s Report | Most Recent Changes
Last Week’s DOE Report | Versus A Year Ago
Millions of Barrels |
| Distillate | dn 2.00 to 2.50 mln bbls | dn 1.066 | dn 0.948 mln bbls | up 12.800 |
| Gasoline | up 1.00 to 1.50 | dn 2.662 | dn 1.306 | up 10.800 |
| Crude oil | up 1.25 to 2.25 | up 4.717 | up 2.317 | dn 21.300 |
| Utilization | up 0.3% to 0.8% | dn 1.9% at 81.6% | dn 0.75% at 77.70% | |
| Crude Imports | dn 0.000 to 0.500 mmbd | dn 0.385 to 9.652 | up 0.559 to 8.426 mln bpd | |
| DOE Distillate Demand | 3.659 mln bpd | dn 066,000 | Gasoline Demand | 8.613 mln bpd | dn 006,000 |
| DOE Distillate Production | 3.484 mln bpd | dn 032,000 | Gasoline Production | 8.584 mln bpd | dn 052,000 |
| DOE Distillate Imports | 0.438 mln bpd | dn 220,000 | Gasoline Imports | 0.926 mln bpd | up 103,000 |
Source: US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration
Open Interest Analysis
Crude oil open interest fell by 1,946 contracts on Wednesday, when prices rallied. That looks like short-covering, which would be bearish. We are surprised again that it was not fresh buying.
Heating oil open interest fell by 1,450 contracts on Wednesday, when prices were higher. That looks like short-covering and is bearish.
RBOB open interest grew by 2,408 contracts on Wednesday, when prices were unchanged to higher. That looks like new buying, which would be supportive.
Natural gas open interest fell by 7,376 on Wednesday, when prices were higher. That looks like short-covering and would be bearish.
Wednesday’s Open Interest Changes:
Crude 1,305,656 dn 1,946 Heat 312,262 dn 1,450 RBOB 260,846 up 2,408 Nat gas 768,451 dn 7,376
CFTC Commitments of Traders for Nymex (for the period ended Tuesday, Feb 2nd)
Crude oil prices gained $2.57bbl over the latest reporting period, and the best buying came from the “other reportables” category, which added 1,623 longs, but which also added 1,123 new shorts. Producers covered 6,749 shorts and liquidated 8,284 longs. Managed Money liquidated 2,386 longs and added 160 shorts while Swap Dealers liquidated 802 longs and covered 515 shorts. Based on these figures, we must deduce that day-trading helped push quotes higher – none of this did.
In heating oil futures, prices were up 7.34 cents a gallon, and the best net buying came from Swap Dealers, who bought 3,861 new longs and covered 72 shorts. Producers bought 832 longs and covered 4,783 shorts. Managed Money was on the short side, liquidating 1,388 longs and adding 2,498 new shorts. Other Reportables liquidated 698 longs and added 99 shorts. The motive buying, though, seems to have come from Swap Dealers on this round.
Gasoline prices gained 4.49 cents a gallon during the period under review. Producer short-covering seems to have given us the best buying; Producers liquidated 5,079 longs and covered 9,475 shorts. Swap dealers liquidated 1,444 longs and covered 720 shorts. Other reportables liquidated 212 longs and covered 769 shorts. Managed Money liquidated 2,406 and added 908.
In natural gas, prices gained 3.2 cents during the period under review. Producers added 130 longs and added 2,442 shorts. Swap dealers added 6,926 longs and added 5,048 shorts. Other Reportables added 280 longs and added 3,861 shorts. Net short-covering by Managed Money, which liquidated 11,763 longs and covered 18,540 shorts, was the motive force.
Natural Gas & Utility Generation
Natural gas prices rallied a little more than a dime yesterday as traders started thinking about the likelihood of colder weather eating into storage surpluses against last year and against the five-year average. As we have noted here recently, we just need to look ahead to the next two reports (including this morning’s report) and we can see the possibility of eating roughly 75 bcf from the surpluses in the next two reports. Of course, we could have disappointments, but it may be just as possible that we will see surprises on the bullish side.
Trading this week has centered on the ongoing mental argument between the recent increases in storage surpluses and forecasts for cold weather. Over the last two days, the bulls (from the cold forecast side) have had the additional benefit of the “sharp pencil analysis” that suggests we could see these surpluses pared down.
All of this will come to a head at 10:30 AM EST, when the EIA will release the most recent underground storage figures. Today’s numbers will tell us if the analysis suggesting declines in the surpluses were founded or unfounded, and they should give an edge to one side or the other. If they come in as expected or with a larger draw than anticipated, then this week’s figures will color the picture with a more bullish hue. They will cut into the existing surpluses and will suggest that next week’s report could cut even more. Only a disappointing report (less of a draw than expected) could reinforce the bears.
Even if today’s figures fail to meet expectations, they could still eat into the surpluses, and that makes the real ‘breakeven point’ a little below the forecast drawdown. For today’s report, that figure is in the 148-155 bcf range for the five-year average and 159-164 bcf range for last year. In other words, any drawdown of more than 165 bcf will improve the picture fundamentally by eating something from both surpluses.
Temperature forecasts continue to be bullish factors in this market, and expectations for cold readings have been extended out to February 25th, now. The colder-than-average temperature pattern remains firmly in place almost to the end of the month.
In cash trading yesterday, Henry Hub prices were at $5.43-$5.58, down 0.01 and up $0.07 on the day (DJN). SoCal prices were at $5.49-$5.56, up $0.03-$0.04 on the day. El Paso Permian prices were up $0.03-$0.03 to $5.30-$5.38. Katy prices were up $0.06-$0.09 to $5.40-$5.51. Waha prices were up $0.02-$0.03 at $5.40-$5.45. Transco 6 was up
$0.00-$0.10 to $7.25-$8.10/mmBtu, according to Dow Jones News (DJN).
Palo Verde prices were last quoted at $48.00-$50.00/mwh. Northeastern prices last traded at $38.00-$63.00. Entergy was last at $48.75-$49.25. Ercot was last at $45.75-$46.50/mwh.
Support is at $5.22-$5.25, $5.12-$5.14, $5.06-$5.08, $4.96-$4.99, $4.83-$4.85, $4.64-$4.66, $4.40-$4.43, $4.15-$4.17, $4.05-$4.08, $3.73-$3.75, $3.66-$3.68, $3.50-$3.53, $3.44-$3.46, $3.28-$3.32, $2.91-$2.93, $2.80-$2.82, $2.74-$2.75, and $2.69-$2.70. Resistance is at $5.46-$5.47, $5.55-$5.60, $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03, $6.09-$6.11, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37, $6.65-$6.69, $6.90-$6.94, $7.01-$7.04, $7.28-$7.31, and $7.34-$7.36.
Mar Natural Gas: Support: $5.22-$5.25, $5.12-$5.14, $5.06-$5.08, $4.96-$4.99, $4.83-$4.85, $4.64-$4.66.
Resistance: $5.46-$5.47, $5.55-$5.60, $5.71-$5.73, $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03, $6.09-$6.11.
Natural gas prices were higher yesterday, but they remain below their trendline, although they may be trying to establish new support.
Dollars per million Btu
The ratio of crude to natural gas was 13.95-to-one yesterday. The average sine 2002 is 9.29-to-one.
Ratio
EIA Weekly Storage Figures
Last week’s EIA report showed a draw of 115 bcf on expectations for a draw of 122-124 bcf. Stocks are now 199 bcf higher than a year ago, against a surplus of 120 bcf a week ago, a surplus of 22 bcf two weeks ago and a surplus of 103 bcf three weeks ago. Stocks are now 9.02% higher than a year ago. They are 150 bcf and 6.65% above the five-year average.
For this week, the eight-year average (of similar Friday reports) was a draw of 158.58 bcf. The five-year average was a draw of 147.6 bcf. Last year’s draw was 159 bcf. The EIA report will be released at 10:30 AM EDT this morning.
EIA Report
| Region | 01-29-10 | 01-22-10 | Change | Last Year | 5 Yr Avg |
| Cons East | 1251 | 1334 | dn 83 | 1105 | 1236 |
| Cons West | 359 | 380 | dn 21 | 337 | 301 |
| Producing | 796 | 807 | dn 11 | 765 | 720 |
| Total US | 2406 | 2521 | dn 115 | 2207 | 2256 |
Bcf, or Billions of cubic feet. Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy
News & Views
| In trading on Nymex, March crude oil prices were down $1.42 at $72.86/barrel at 8.30 AM EST, this morning. March heating oil prices were down 2.91 cents to 1.9339/gallon. March RBOB prices were down 2.38 cents to 1.9119. March natural gas prices were down $0.056 to $5.340/mmBtu. Prices were lower on an increase in reserve requirements for banks in China. Retail sales came in up 0.5%, against expectations for an increase of 0.3%. DOE Expectations The table below lists the final survey results for Dow Jones, Bloomberg and Reuters. The DOE report will be released at 11:00 AM EDT on Friday morning this week because of the huge snow storm experienced in Washington, DC. Category Dow Jones Bloomberg Reuters Crude up 1.300 up 1.500 up 1.500 mln bbls Distillate dn 1.800 dn 1.600 dn 1.900 Gasoline up 0.100 up 0.300 up 0.500 Utilization up 0.3% up 0.1% up 0.2% 
Crude oil prices were higher again yesterday, making it four days in a row, now. The advances still look more like rallies than lasting advances, but this is a difficult market to read right now. | 
Heating oil prices were higher again yesterday, making it the fourth consecutive day in a row, or every day this week. Equities have been the biggest influence so far this week. DOE History: Distillate stocks have fallen in six of the last eight years, by an average of 2.838 mln bbls. The eight-year average is a draw of 1.991 mln bbls. Gasoline stocks rose in five of the last eight years, for a five-year build of 2.560 mln bbls and an eight-year average build of 0.867 mln bbls. Crude oil stocks have been higher in five of the last eight years for a five-year average build of 3.063 mln bbls and it has an eight-year average build of 0.940 mln bbls. Utilization has been higher in six of the last eight years (up 1.18%) and has an eight-year average increase of 0.56%, and it has an eight-year average utilization figure of 86.96%. The four-year, pre-hurricane utilization average was 89.08%. Since Katrina, refineries have run at an average utilization rate of 84.85%. Crude oil imports have been lower in three of the last six years, and the average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been down 374,000 bpd. The average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been 9.686 million bpd. Imports were 1.260 million bpd below that average in last week’s report. That’s 13.0% lower. |
| Crude prices are caught between equities and the dollar – for now. | |
Events in Iran seem to be digressing at a rapid speed, and that makes caps or calls almost de rigueur positions to have on in some quantity. We are two weeks away from the best time of year to buy, which we will explore in greater detail early next week. Still, we feel it makes sense to get out foot in the door with some call protection right away. Iran scares us.
An Illustrated Look at Energy Market Factors
A Look at the US Dollar Versus the Euro
Dollar-Euro (dollar in euro cents): Three-Month Bar-Chart 
The US dollar was higher yesterday, but it ran into trouble near last week’s high around 72.80 euro cents. Prices backed away from that high, but they were higher in trading overnight. The bulls need to be wary of a double top.
http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forexqkchart&curcode1=USD&curcode2=EUR
A Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (djia)
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Six-Month Chart
The DJIA ended the day up 105.81 points yesterday. The most supportive news came from Europe where national financial leaders pledged to find a way to solve Greece’s debt issues. Nonetheless, nothing definitive has been decided.
Source: http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=djia&sid=1643&time=6mo&Submit1=Refresh
A Look at Spreads
The third minus first month contango spread in heating oil has fallen to 1.67 cents, which is below our putative cost of throughput and borrowing money. At least it is quite low, here. Higher values led to barrels being removed from the market last year, and many remain in storage to come back if and when we go into backwardation.
The second minus first month crude oil spread is at 44 cents.
There were some great opportunities to buy the front month and sell deferred contracts in 2009.
Many of those barrels were effectively ‘sequestered’ from the market,
and will return if we return to backwardation at some point.
Recommendations for Specific Market Segments
Heating Oil Distributors Heating oil prices were higher yesterday, although there is no real upward momentum in this market right now. We have plenty of heating oil and demand is poor, but the Iranian situation may be reaching an important trigger point. We will want to be buyers in the first two weeks of March, for seasonal reasons that we will discuss in much greater detail next week. The question we have to ask ourselves, now, is how confident we are that Israel will be willing to wait for diplomacy to work with Iran’s nuclear program. The announcement that it has already enriched its first material to 20% could be the spur that will goad Israel into attacking. The imminent arrival of Russian anti-aircraft systems makes the question more pressing. We are still holding capped-price programs as insurance against the kind of rally we have seen this week and against any sudden events in Iran. We want some protection in place, and will be buying in earnest, soon, so our resistance to calls is passing quickly. Diesel Users We would hold our caps and will be buying more, soon. NYH Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…199.55-200.05 plus 3.500 USG Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…197.05-197.55 plus 1.000 Jet/Kerosene Users & Airlines New York Harbor cash market differentials were 3.00 to 3.50 cents over January heating oil in NY Harbor and 1.75 under to 1.25 under the screen in the US Gulf. Anything under 4 cents is worth hedging. Diesel & Gasoline Marketers We would keep product hedged against lower prices. Gasoline Blenders & End-Users We are increasingly worried about the Iranian wild card, and we will be buying in two weeks, so we want to get a foot in the door now. Prompt NYH Fuel Ethanol…..182.00-183.00 Prompt USG Fuel Ethanol….172.00-173.00 Quotes from 02-11-10 Heating Oil End-Users We would hold capped-price protection, and we may need to buy more soon. The seasonal is two weeks away, and Iran is really starting to concern us. Speculators We would buy some form of calls here. We will want to buy more in two weeks. Refiners The 7:5+2 crack spread was $6.35 yesterday. Crude Oil Producers Crude oil prices were up again yesterday. We feel that they “belong” lower, but we are really worried about Iran here. | Prompt Jet Fuel Prices New York Harbor 199.30-199.80 US Gulf 194.55-195.05 Midwest (Group Three) 192.70-194.70 Midwest (Chicago) 193.20-194.70 Los Angeles 200.00-201.00 San Francisco 200.00-201.00 Portland, Oregon 200.00-201.00 Cents per gallon Propane Prices Mont Belvieu……….…..non-TET………$1.261150 Cents per gallon  Gasoline prices were higher yesterday, and they have not posted a decline yet this week. Nonetheless, unlike crude oil or heating oil prices, gasoline quotes have not been able to make consistently fresh highs. Its rallies have been flat and have failed to make any genuine upside progress.
Gasoline prices still have support at 187.00, 185.19, 184.19, 182.63, and 181.24, so we have a number of support levels beneath this market. There are also support levels from 188.00 to 189.23, yesterday’s low. The upside lacks momentum or punch. |