Prices for February 25th, 2010
| HEATING OIL cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | MAR | 205.00 | 196.42 | 198.62 | dn 05.59 | | APR | 206.34 | 197.64 | 199.86 | dn 05.53 | | MAY | 207.08 | 199.18 | 201.29 | dn 05.48 | | JUN | 209.22 | 200.78 | 202.87 | dn 05.49 | | JUL | 209.42 | 202.88 | 204.79 | dn 05.48 | | AUG | 210.86 | 204.81 | 206.72 | dn 05.47 | | SEP | 209.90 | 206.76 | 208.79 | dn 05.43 | | OCT | 212.11 | 209.12 | 211.16 | dn 05.40 | | NOV | 214.47 | 211.46 | 213.54 | dn 05.37 | | DEC | 222.12 | 213.88 | 215.93 | dn 05.33 | | JAN | 223.54 | 217.01 | 218.31 | dn 05.28 | | FEB | 224.91 | 218.74 | 219.69 | dn 05.22 | | Estimated Volume (day before) total all prev day 109,155 | | NYMEX CRUDE OIL dollars per barrel | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | APR | 80.32 | 77.05 | 78.17 | dn 01.83 | | MAY | 80.65 | 77.44 | 78.53 | dn 01.85 | | JUN | 81.00 | 77.84 | 78.90 | dn 01.88 | | JUL | 81.43 | 78.24 | 79.27 | dn 01.90 | | AUG | 81.66 | 78.66 | 79.61 | dn 01.89 | | SEP | 81.44 | 78.88 | 79.91 | dn 01.88 | | | | | | | | | Estimated Volume… 499,235 Opec Basket…$75.46 dn $0.29
Prompt #2 Oil NYH 88..-1.50 to -1.00, 74 Lo S…+2.00 to +2.50
US Gulf 88 grade…-4.75 to -4.25, 74 grade Lo S…+0.75 to +1.25 Group .........-1.00 to -0.75 Lo S.....-1.00 to -0.75
Chicago ......-1.25 to -0.25 cash quotes by Dow Jones | | | |
| NYMEX RBOB GASOLINE cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | MAR | 210.20 | 202.25 | 203.70 | dn 06.19 | | APR | 221.00 | 212.71 | 214.77 | dn 05.90 | | MAY | 221.04 | 213.30 | 215.44 | dn 05.66 | | JUN | 220.76 | 213.02 | 215.29 | dn 05.47 | | JUL | 217.41 | 212.45 | 213.70 | dn 05.34 | | AUG | 213.81 | 211.47 | 212.60 | dn 05.17 | | SEP | 212.62 | 210.05 | 202.16 | dn 05.05 | | OCT | 200.79 | 200.00 | 201.14 | dn 04.98 | | Estimated RB Volume day before 108,510 | | NYMEX NATURAL GAS dollars per mmBtu | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | APR | 4.894 | 4.743 | 4.767 | dn 0.092 | | MAY | 4.950 | 4.808 | 4.831 | dn 0.096 | | JUN | 5.005 | 4.895 | 4.910 | dn 0.095 | | JUL | 5.079 | 4.980 | 4.992 | dn 0.094 | | | Estimated Volume…day before (170,051)
Nymex statistics are based on composite Access & Day Sessions
Prompt Gasoline NYH M5 -0.75 to -0.25 RBOB +3.50 /+4.00
US Gulf M4: -13.50 to -13.00 RBOB -9.50 to -9.00
L.A. Conv Reg 217.00-218.00, N-grade Group 205.35-205.85 Chi 201.60-202.10 | |
Market Review for Thursday
ESTERDAY’s session had its oddities. Oil prices started working lower early Thursday morning as Asian traders reassessed the US reaction to this week’s DOE figures. Where Americans saw draws in refined products, Asians saw a build in crude oil stocks that might have trouble getting worked off in the existing low utilization environment – despite the increase in refinery use in this latest set of supply & demand numbers. They also saw a disappointing distillate draw and comparatively small adjustments higher in four-week demand aggregates. As the baton was passed to Europe, renewed fears over the sovereign debt picture there helped restore some of the dollar’s luster – tarnished on Wednesday by Ben Bernanke’s insistence that US interest rates will remain low for several more months. The stronger greenback pushed oil prices lower, and the stock market took a hit with this week’s unexpected rise in first-time unemployment claims. That overshadowed a positive durable goods figure, and lower equities led oil prices lower.
| Fuel for Thought European equities prices were hammered yesterday as European investors buckled at Greece’s continuing financial woes. Observers also noted that there was a sense of growing pessimism over the economic outlook for Great Britain, yesterday, as well. The trigger was news that the UK’s deficit could exceed 12% of GDP this year. The pound fell more against the dollar than the euro did yesterday. Greece will offer €3 billion to €5 billion in 10-year bonds next week, and Standard & Poor’s warned on Wednesday that it may downgrade the country’s debt rating in March – contingent upon the extent and success of the country’s austerity programs, which will be unveiled over the next few weeks. |
Despite yesterday’s decline, 10 out of the last 13 sessions have generated gains in the crude market. The propensity in this market has been for traders and investors to embrace, rather than to try to avoid, risk. We might be more inclined to see a more random or neutral bias in this market – from here on out – were it not for the imminent arrival of the March-to-May (spring) seasonal.
The simple truth is that 2010 has yet to establish any consistent pattern among the many regular economic statistics that are released each week and month.
Yesterday was a perfect example. Unemployment was expected to decline by 13,000 claims to 460,000; instead, initial jobless claims increased by 22,000 to 496,000 for the week ended February 20th. Evening that out, though, durable goods orders jumped 3.0% in January, double the estimated gain of 1.5%. And December’s orders were revised up, from a gain of 1.0% to one of 1.9%.
We have factories replacing well-controlled and lean inventories, but consumers, who can account for 70% of GDP, are still struggling to get jobs and to participate, through higher earnings, in the nation’s productivity gains. The economy is striding forward … with the gait of a crab.
Technicals
Crude oil prices were turned back down after failing to break above resistance at $80.30-$80.45. If prices turn lower from here and break (and settle) beneath $68.59, we will have a head & shoulders top formation. If we end up seeing that, and prices then break $68.59, the charts say they could go down to around $54. We need to be aware of this.
Dollars per barrel
Above: Crude oil prices turned back down, after failing for a third day to break over $80.30-$80.45.
April crude oil now has buy-stops over $80.45, $80.67, $82.35, $83.95, $84.83, $85.13, $89.82, $90.99, $93.02, $96.03, and $100.37. Sell-stops are under $77.00, $76.30, $73.70, $72.60, $71.30, $70.75, $69.30, $68.55, $68.00, $65.80-$66.20, and $64.95. March heating oil has buy-stops over 205.00, 208.00, 209.15, 210.91, 211.90, 217.55, 222.72, 225.80, 227.05, 229.08, 238.95, 249.62, and 251.50. Sell stops are under 196.40, 190.75, 189.95, 187.45, 186.50, 182.63, 177.00, 176.68, 173.75, 171.10, 170.35, and 168.60. March RBOB has buy-stops over 210.20, 211.91, 212.75, 214.60, 219.27, 222.70, 228.86, 240.10, 250.40, 252.00, 265.10, 267.85, and 270.85. Sell-stops are under 202.25, 198.40, 191.85, 187.00, 184.15, 182.40, 181.20, 179.20, 177.30, 175.14, 171.40, and 170.25.
Football: The bulls lost 18 yards yesterday, on third and 13 to go, and that makes it fourth down and 31 to go, which is tough.
Technical Support & Resistance
Apr crude oil Support: $77.00-$77.20, $76.30-$76.60, $73.35-$73.50, $72.60-$72.75, $76.30-$71.45.
Resistance: $80.30-$80.45, $80.60-$80.67, $82.20-$82.35, $83.85-$83.95, $84.75-$84.85.
Mar heating oil Support: 197.95-198.05, 196.40-196.55, 190.75-190.90, 189.95-190.15, 187.45-187.55.
Resistance: 204.85-205.00, 207.85-208.00, 209.00-209.15, 210.80-210.91, 211.80-211.90.
Mar Rbob Support: 203.50-203.65, 202.25-202.40, 198.40-198.60, 191.85-192.00, 188.90-189.00.
Resistance: 210.00-210.20, 211.80-211.91, 212.60-212.75, 214.50-214.60, 219.15-219.30.
Oil Inventory Reports
This week’s DOE report showed a smaller-than-expected drawdown in distillate stocks, but it showed a drawdown in gasoline stocks, where a build had been expected – and reported by the API. Crude oil stocks increased by more than had been expected, and were diametrically opposed to the drawdown seen as a lead-in from Tuesday night’s API report. Where the API had been supportive for crude and disappointing for products, this week’s DOE report could have been seen as being the precise opposite. At the same time, though, both showed an increase in crude imports and in refinery utilization.
This Week’s Inventory Comparison: Distillate stocks are now 7.5 million bbls, or 5.17%, higher than a year ago. Heating oil inventories are 5.8 mln bbls, or 15.72%, higher than they were a year ago. Gasoline stocks are 14.8 mln bbls (up 6.84%) higher against a year ago. Crude oil stocks are now 16.7 million bbls, or 4.71%, lower than a year ago. Residual stocks are 2.2 mln bbls (5.82%) higher than a year ago, jet fuel stocks are 1.7 mln bbls, (4.05%) higher than a year ago. Utilization is 0.23% lower than a year ago and 5.33% below the eight-year average. It is 7.50% lower than the four-year, pre-Katrina average and 3.15% below the average of the four years since the big hurricanes (Katrina & Rita) in 2005.
This Week’s Demand: Four-week, total refined products demand came in at 19.095 million bpd, up 0.100 mln bbls on the week, and up 0.239 mln bpd and 1.27% against a year ago. Two weeks ago, it was 0.159 mln bpd and 0.83% lower than a year ago. Four-week gasoline demand is at 8.741 mln bpd, down 0.34%, compared to up 0.32% seven weeks ago. It was up 111,000 bpd on the week. Four-week distillate demand is now at 3.701 mln bpd, down 6.82%, compared to down 0.98% seven weeks ago. Four-week jet demand is now at 1.321 mln bpd, down 1.93% against a year ago, compared to up 8.17% seven weeks ago. Four-week residual fuel demand is at 0.602 mln bpd, up 4.70%, compared to down 34.14% three weeks ago. Propane use is up 9.10%, to 1.462 mln bpd. Gasoline supply increased by 572,000 bpd this week, while demand was up 543,000 bpd on the week.
This Week’s API Report: This week’s API report showed a draw of 3.137 mln bbls in crude oil stocks, a draw of 0.834 mln bbls in distillate stocks and a build of 1.738 mln bbls in gasoline inventories. Utilization was up 0.9% to 80.8%. Implied demand came in at a healthy 9.310 mln bpd in gasoline and at a decent 4.306 mln bpd in distillate. Crude oil imports were up 1.153 mln bpd to 9.192 mln bpd. Both implied demand figures improved from really dreadful levels reported last week, and imported more crude oil and seemed interested in refining more, as well.
DOE Weekly Inventory Statistics
| Category | Final DOE Estimate
This Week’s Estimate | History
Last Year’s Report | Most Recent Changes
This Week’s DOE Report | Versus A Year Ago
Millions of Barrels |
| Distillate | dn 2.50 to 3.00 mln bbls | up 0.800 | dn 0.591 mln bbls | up 7.500 |
| Gasoline | dn 1.00 to 1.50 | dn 3.400 | dn 0.895 | up 14.800 |
| Crude oil | up 1.00 to 2.00 | up 0.700 | up 3.034 | dn 16.700 |
| Utilization | dn 0.1% to 0.6% | dn 0.9% at 81.4% | up 1.42% at 81.17% | |
| Crude Imports | dn 0.000 to 0.500 mmbd | dn 0.024 to 8.769 | up 0.536 to 9.084 mln bpd | |
| DOE Distillate Demand | 3.662 mln bpd | dn 125,000 | Gasoline Demand | 9.064 mln bpd | up 543,000 |
| DOE Distillate Production | 3.591 mln bpd | up 158,000 | Gasoline Production | 8.863 mln bpd | up 435,000 |
| DOE Distillate Imports | 0.444 mln bpd | up 053,000 | Gasoline Imports | 0.846 mln bpd | up 137,000 |
Source: US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration
Open Interest Analysis
Crude oil open interest rose by 15,993 contracts on Wednesday, when prices were higher. That looks like heavy new buying, which would be supportive. We typically do get fresh buying when a new contract turns spot month.
Heating oil open interest grew by 298 contracts on Wednesday, when prices were higher. That looks like light, new buying, which would be very lightly supportive.
RBOB open interest rose by 558 contracts on Wednesday, when prices were higher, which would be light, new buying.
Natural gas open interest grew by 2,779 on Wednesday, when prices were higher. That looks like decent, new buying, which would be supportive. The March contract expired on Wednesday, so seeing new buying was important.
Wednesday’s Open Interest Changes:
Crude 1,296,228 up 15,993 Heat 305,030 up 298 RBOB 265,111 up 558 Nat gas 792,057 up 2,779
CFTC Commitments of Traders for Nymex (for the period ended Tuesday, Feb 2nd)
Crude oil prices rallied $3.26/bbl over the latest reporting period, and the best buying came from Managed Money accounts. They bought 12,583 new longs and covered 19,037 shorts. Producers added 3,094 new longs and also added 4,466 new shorts. Swap Dealers and Other Reportables sold into the higher prices, liquidating 8,557 and 1,648 longs and selling 9,001 and 3,596 new shorts, respectively. It seems that investment money was flowing into the market on the long side, in response to higher equities, a weaker dollar or stronger economic data, which are what get investment-bank led index funds and ETF’s buying.
In heating oil futures, prices rallied 5.90 cents a gallon, and the best net buying came from Managed Money accounts, which were buying 556 longs and covering 1,626 shorts. Producers also covered 10,227 shorts, which would have pushed quotes higher, although they kicked out 8,93 existing longs. Swap Dealers liquidated 3,499 longs and sold 180 shorts. Other Reportables liquidated 260 longs and sold 496 new contracts short.
Gasoline prices gained 5.92 cents a gallon during the period under review. Managed Money accounts added 1,740 new longs and covered 1,682 shorts, while Other Reportables added 1,091 new longs and covered 87 shorts. Producers liquidated 4,066 longs and added 739 new shorts into the rise, while Swap Dealers liquidated 228 longs and added 346 new shorts. Funds and commission houses were the best buyers and the motivating force behind higher prices.
In natural gas, prices gained 2.0 cents during the period under review. Swap Dealers added 3,204 new longs against 564 new shorts; Other Reportables added 452 new longs and covered 1,937 shorts, and Producers liquidated 2,766 longs, but covered 3,699 shorts. The net buying from Swaps and Others and short-covering by Producers and Others pushed quotes higher. Managed Money accounts sold 6,098 new shorts against the purchase of just 244 new longs as prices rose.
Natural Gas & Utility Generation
Natural gas prices were lower yesterday, despite a heavy pull from storage and the flip from a year-on-year surplus to a year-on-year deficit. Prices finished at $4.767/mmBtu, which seems, to the casual observer, as an alluring price in a market that has less gas in storage than there was a year ago. Forecasts were calling for warming readings.
At the start of this heating season, the talk was all about the possibility, even the likelihood, of there being a record large surplus in storage by the time the tulips had pushed their richly-colored petals through the softening ground of spring. After this week’s EIA underground storage report, that possibility seems much less likely, and yet prices continue to be pressed lower.
Underground storage levels are 56 bcf and 2.93% lower than a year ago, now. They are 13 bcf and 0.71% above the five-year average. As long as we can roughly keep pace with previous years’ changes in March, it now looks like storage levels will end this heating season very near levels seen a year ago or in many of a number of previous years. While prices were just above $4.00/mmBtu a year ago, the economy seemed much further away from improvement than it does now.
It never really works to say that storage levels at a particular figure should equal prices at a specific level. Usually, though, one can look at a period of declining storage numbers and expect prices to improve – or see prices fall as storage levels build. Obviously, these need to be seasonally adjusted, in some manner, so that rising storage levels are more bearish in winter than in summer. And, that is what bothers us most about this natural gas market. Over the first two months of this year, we have seen storage levels falling, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, while prices have been getting hammered. The bigger the psychological hurdle cleared on the bullish side, recently, the more selling we have had. At the same time, numbers suggesting economic recovery have been used as reasons to buy oil, but not gas. Each week, we look at the CFTC numbers and see that managed money accounts have been selling natural gas prices lower (while the same group has been buying crude oil and refined products). There is something both arbitrary and economically wrong with this.
In cash trading yesterday, Henry Hub prices were at $4.76-$4.87, down $0.12-$0.13 on the day (DJN). SoCal prices were at $4.95-$5.02, down $0.08-$0.11 on the day. El Paso Permian prices were down $0.05-$0.20 at $4.64-$4.84. Katy prices were down $0.10-$0.13 to $4.70-$4.80. Waha prices were down $0.09-$0.15 at $4.68-$4.80. Transco 6 was down $0.18-$0.29 to $5.16-$5.35/mmBtu, according to Dow Jones News (DJN).
Palo Verde prices were last quoted at $42.50-$43.50/mwh. Northeastern prices last traded at $46.75-$49.00. Cinergy was last at $41.50-$42.75. Ercot was last at $40.00-$41.50/mwh.
Support is at $4.74-$4.77, $4.64-$4.66, $4.40-$4.43, $4.15-$4.17, $4.05-$4.08, $3.73-$3.75, $3.66-$3.68, $3.50-$3.53, $3.44-$3.46, $3.28-$3.32, $2.91-$2.93, $2.80-$2.82, $2.74-$2.75, and $2.69-$2.70. Resistance is at $4.88-$4.89, $4.97-$5.00, $5.16-$5.17, $5.46-$5.47, $5.55-$5.60, $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03, $6.09-$6.11, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37, $6.65-$6.69, $6.90-$6.94, $7.01-$7.04, $7.28-$7.31, and $7.34-$7.36.
Apr Natural Gas: Support : $4.74-$4.77, $4.64-$4.66, $4.40-$4.43, $4.15-$4.17, $4.05-$4.08, $3.73-$3.75.
Resistance: $4.88-$4.89, $4.97-$5.00, $5.16-$5.17, $5.46-$5.47, $5.55-$5.60, $5.71-$5.73.
Natural gas prices dropped another nine cents, despite a very positive EIA underground storage report.
Dollars per million Btu
The oscillators in this market are entering oversold territory. Hey can still drop more, though, from here.
Ratio
EIA Weekly Storage Figures
Last week’s EIA report showed a draw of 172 bcf on expectations for a draw of 169-170 bcf. Stocks are now 56 bcf lower than a year ago, against a surplus of 26 bcf a week ago, a surplus of 172 bcf two weeks ago and a surplus of 199 bcf three weeks ago. Stocks are now 2.93% lower than a year ago. They are 13 bcf and 0.71% above the five-year average.
For this week, the eight-year average (of similar Friday reports) was a draw of 130.50 bcf. The five-year average was a draw of 132.4 bcf. Last year’s draw was 101 bcf. Estimates were for a draw of 169-170 bcf.
EIA Report
| Region | 02-19-10 | 02-12-10 | Change | Last Year | 5 Yr Avg |
| Cons East | 935 | 1030 | dn 95 | 886 | 958 |
| Cons West | 311 | 322 | dn 11 | 298 | 255 |
| Producing | 607 | 673 | dn 66 | 725 | 627 |
| Total US | 1853 | 2025 | dn 172 | 1909 | 1840 |
Bcf, or Billions of cubic feet. Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy
News & Views
| In trading on Nymex, April crude oil prices were down $0.26 at $78.43/barrel at 7.30 AM EST, this morning. March heating oil prices were up 0.88 cents to 1.9950/gallon. March RBOB prices were up 1.20 cents to 2.0490. April natural gas prices were up $0.026 to $4.793/mmBtu. Prices were falling as we went to press. Traders were buying oil contracts this morning, starting in Asia, as people took their first cue from a weaker US dollar. The dollar hit resistance at the 74.10-74.20 euro cents level yesterday afternoon and sold off from there. Traders were also looking ahead to the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index and total existing homes sales today. There was also talk in the Pacific this morning about the growing competition between Opec and non-Opec oil producers for refining market-share. And, as we move through today’s session, March refined products will expire. Monday, the seasonal tendency for stronger prices begins. 
Crude oil prices dropped sharply yesterday, breaking below the previous two days’ lows and reinforcing the resistance above $80.30 up to $80.45. | 
Heating oil prices turned back down yesterday, and they broke down below Wednesday’s low. Prices need to break over 209.13 and then the major resistance at 222.72 to advance dramatically. With the extraordinary seasonal tendency for stronger prices about to start, we need to be aware of the risks, have stop-loss points and understand that this is just one of a number of years that one might use it. The ‘system’ calls for buying between March 1st and March 15th, and we like one of two methods to get into long positions. The first is “time-buying,” where purchases are spread evenly across the 11 trading sessions falling in that period this year. The second is the ‘lotto scaled-down’ method. Using this technique, one would not buy on “up” days, but would hold that buying aside, like an accumulating lotto prize. As contracts accumulate, one would look to buy them on a scaled-down basis on “down” days. In either case, we feel it makes best sense to integrate capped-price physical deals, call options (both at-the-money and out-of-the-money) and futures with strict GTC stop-loss orders entered at the time of purchase. Use sound money-management. |
| Crude prices are back in a bullish trend here. | |
March heating oil and gasaoline futures expire this afternoon. A snowstorm could convince Nymex traders to leave Manhattan earlier than usual this afternoon.
An Illustrated Look at Energy Market Factors
A Look at the US Dollar Versus the Euro
Dollar-Euro (dollar in euro cents): Three-Month Bar-Chart 
The US dollar was higher for most of yesterday’s session, but it did have trouble breaking its recent highs @74.15 euro cents, and it kicked back under 74 euro cents in late trading yesterday afternoon, with selling continuing after that.
http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forexqkchart&curcode1=USD&curcode2=EUR
A Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (djia)
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Six-Month Chart
The DJIA ended the day down 53.13 points yesterday,
largely in reaction to the latest increase in first-time unemployment claims.
Source: http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=djia&sid=1643&time=6mo&Submit1=Refresh
A Look at Inventories
Gasoline inventories are coming into their spring seasonal at their highest levels in years.
That could be a challenge this year, and reinforces the need for risk-acknowledgement.
A Look at Imports
Thirteen-week crude oil imports remain depressed at levels not seen before – because 13-week aggregates have never been determined by hurricanes. Had they been, we might have seen this before. We have not.
Recommendations for Specific Market Segments
Heating Oil Distributors Heating oil prices were lower yesterday, and traders were taking a new look at this week’s DOE figures, and saw them in a more bearish light yesterday – as equities fell and the dollar rallied. We are now getting ready to enter the March buying time. As we have noted here, we need to know what our risk tolerance will be and we need to see this year in the context of a number of years, rather than a stand-alone trade. The best and safest way to use the seasonal is to discuss with one’s customers the potential benefits of buying something now, both for the next few months and potentially for next year. We still feel that capped-price programs or call options give us the greatest latitude to protect against higher prices – without being hurt by lower ones. Armed with knowledge, some customers will be willing to shoulder a portion of the risk – which is real – in this seasonal trade. We like buying over the full two-week period. Diesel Users We would hold our caps and will be buying into dips from here. NYH Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…205.35-205.85 plus 5.750 USG Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…201.60-202.10 plus 2.000 Jet/Kerosene Users & Airlines New York Harbor cash market differentials were 3.75 to 4.25 cents over January heating oil in NY Harbor and 0.50 to 1.00 over the screen in the US Gulf. Diesel & Gasoline Marketers We would keep product hedged, but March may be time to risk it. Gasoline Blenders & End-Users We are coming into the most reliable seasonal tendency in commodities. The short side is off limits here. Prompt NYH Fuel Ethanol…..176.00-178.00 Prompt USG Fuel Ethanol….171.00-174.00 Quotes from 02-25-10 Heating Oil End-Users We will be looking to get in on the long side in heating oil on any dips between now and March 15th. Use this week to figure out how much you want to buy and what amount can be risked. Speculators We will be looking to buy calls on any weakness between now and March 15th, increasing our positions the nearer we get to March. Refiners The 7:5+2 crack spread was $6.77 yesterday. Crude Oil Producers Crude oil prices were lower yesterday on a disappointing employment report, weaker equities, a stronger US dollar and on a fresh look at this week’s DOE build in stocks. | Prompt Jet Fuel Prices New York Harbor 203.60-204.10 US Gulf 200.35-200.85 Midwest (Group Three) 206.20-206.95 Midwest (Chicago) 203.75-204.75 Los Angeles 204.00-205.00 San Francisco 204.00-205.00 Portland, Oregon 204.00-205.00 Cents per gallon Propane Prices Mont Belvieu……….…..non-TET………$1.242140 Cents per gallon  Gasoline prices dropped yesterday, after failing to break above resistance at 212.75. Prices need to break above that level sooner than later, o they have the potential to sell off and form a head & shoulders top if they break the “arm-pits” at 181.24 and at 184.19.
This is it. If prices continue working lower today, we would be inclined to start buying caps or calls. While we do not want to waste an opportunity, we also want to have ammunition through March 15th. |