Prices for March 16th, 2010
| HEATING OIL cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | APR | 212.30 | 204.52 | 211.43 | up 05.67 | | MAY | 213.34 | 205.85 | 212.53 | up 05.61 | | JUN | 214.25 | 207.27 | 213.57 | up 05.42 | | JUL | 215.64 | 211.57 | 215.07 | up 05.26 | | AUG | 216.76 | 215.98 | 216.65 | up 05.11 | | SEP | 218.92 | 213.74 | 218.29 | up 04.93 | | OCT | 220.41 | 216.25 | 220.14 | up 04.66 | | NOV | 222.20 | 218.75 | 222.05 | up 04.33 | | DEC | 225.15 | 218.83 | 224.10 | up 04.08 | | JAN | 226.06 | 225.45 | 226.00 | up 03.84 | | FEB | 226.00 | 226.00 | 226.85 | up 03.61 | | MAR | ---.-- | ---.-- | ---.-- | -- --.-- | | Estimated Volume (day before) total all prev day 77,339 | | NYMEX CRUDE OIL dollars per barrel | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | APR | 82.10 | 79.32 | 81.70 | up 01.90 | | MAY | 82.36 | 79.59 | 81.97 | up 01.89 | | JUN | 82.65 | 79.96 | 82.31 | up 01.88 | | JUL | 82.96 | 80.49 | 82.65 | up 01.85 | | AUG | 83.13 | 80.74 | 82.93 | up 01.80 | | SEP | 83.40 | 81.08 | 83.16 | up 01.74 | | | | | | | | | Estimated Volume… 545,604 Opec Basket…$76.24 dn $1.50
Prompt #2 Oil NYH 88..-1.50 to -1.25, 74 Lo S…+4.00 to +4.50
US Gulf 88 grade…-4.25 to -3.75, 74 grade Lo S…-1.25 to -0.75 Group .........+5.25 to +5.60 Lo S.....+5.25 to +5.60
Chicago ......-0.00 to +0.25 cash quotes by Dow Jones | | | |
| NYMEX RBOB GASOLINE cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | APR | 228.70 | 221.80 | 227.50 | up 05.22 | | MAY | 228.45 | 222.05 | 227.38 | up 04.88 | | JUN | 227.45 | 221.41 | 226.48 | up 04.57 | | JUL | 226.20 | 221.49 | 225.39 | up 04.38 | | AUG | 224.65 | 223.36 | 224.24 | up 04.28 | | SEP | 223.63 | 218.88 | 222.90 | up 04.16 | | OCT | 212.60 | 210.75 | 211.87 | up 04.02 | | NOV | ---.-- | ---.-- | ---.-- | -- --.-- | | Estimated RB Volume day before 71,182 | | NYMEX NATURAL GAS dollars per mmBtu | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | APR | 4.423 | 4.323 | 4.347 | dn 0.044 | | MAY | 4.494 | 4.400 | 4.418 | dn 0.049 | | JUN | 4.562 | 4.476 | 4.493 | dn 0.049 | | JUL | 4.652 | 4.570 | 4.587 | dn 0.049 | | | Estimated Volume…day before (204,677)
Nymex statistics are based on composite Access & Day Sessions
Prompt Gasoline NYH M5 -12.00 to -11.00 RBOB +10.00 /+10.50
US Gulf M4: -11.25 to -10.75 RBOB -1.75 to -1.25
L.A. Conv Reg 229.00-230.00, N-grade Group 218.00-218.50 Chi 224.00-225.00 | |
Market Review for Tuesday
E had been told to expect rain, but there was little mention of the high winds that lashed southwestern Connecticut on Saturday. Our power went out at 9:30 PM EST, and we expected it back at any time for the next three days. Without waxing lyrical for the next eight pages on the merits of running water, plumbing, heat and light, suffice it to say that we spent three days without any of those, internet or phone. With 90% of New Canaan and the surrounding area affected, our backup location was also without power, leaving us incommunicado, as it were. We apologize for the inconvenience and will publish this report on two days normally set aside for vacation, starting with the Thursday before Easter, which we usually take off. We are really glad to be back, not just with this report, but to the modern world we know.
In the time we were down, oil prices sold off for two days (Friday and Monday) and then rallied sharply yesterday. By Friday, crude oil open interest had risen by 121,213 contracts since March 1st. On Monday, nearly 50,000 were liquidated.
| Fuel for Thought Opec ministers meet today in Vienna and Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali Naimi said yesterday that Opec “will not change anything in the output level because everyone is comfortable and satisfied with the price level and the stability in the market.” Clearly, he is speaking for producers and not consumers. Mr Naimi went on to say, “There are no shortages, investment is going on, demand looking forward is going to continue to rise, so everyone is happy.” From a consumer perspective, though, prices are nearing levels at which households need to spend on energy money they would ideally look to spend elsewhere, and prices are on the historically high side right now, delaying economic recovery. |
The April crude oil contract expires on Monday (March 22nd), so the heavy liquidation seen on Monday seems to have come from fund investors who had just lost patience with the upside in this market. There are still more than 71,000 relatively new positions (since March 1st) that are waiting for someone else to push the market to higher levels. If that new buying is not forthcoming, we may see additional long liquidation in the days ahead. For the bulls to make hay, they need to see prices get above – and stay above - $83.00 and $83.95.
The US dollar was under selling pressure yesterday as Standard & Poor’s took Greece off its ratings watch list. There is still no definitive plan to bring Greece’s economy into an austerity program, but its removal from the watch list was seen as a positive for the euro. At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s insistence that US rates will remain low for “an extended period” – still – helped buoy equities and kept the dollar under pressure. The weaker dollar was seen as being supportive for “risk appetites” and for oil prices yesterday.
Last night’s API report showed a large draw in gasoline stocks, based on strong demand. It also showed a sharp decline in crude oil imports.
Technicals
Oil prices ran into resistance late last week, and they sold off from those levels after failing to break to new highs. Since then, they seem to have reorganized and have tried to launch a fresh assault at their recent highs, at $83.16 in crude, at 214.42 in heating oil and at 231.34 in gasoline. This attempt may be critical; if prices fail to break over it this try, they may sell off more severely. A breakout will launch them on another leg higher.
Dollars per barrel
Above: The crack spread (7:5+2) finished at $11.92/bbl yesterday.
April crude oil now has buy-stops over $83.16, $83.95, $84.83, $85.13, $89.82, $90.99, $93.02, $96.03, and $100.37. Sell-stops are under $79.30, $78.00, $77.00, $76.30, $73.70, $72.60, $71.30, $70.75, $69.30, $68.55, $68.00, $65.80-$66.20, and $64.95. April heating oil has buy-stops over 214.42, 217.55, 222.72, 225.80, 227.05, 229.08, 238.95, 249.62, and 251.50. Sell stops are under 204.50, 201.55, 200.55, 199.00, 196.40, 190.75, 189.95, 187.45, 186.50, 182.63, 177.00, 176.68, 173.75, 171.10, 170.35, and 168.60. April RBOB has buy-stops over 231.35, 240.10, 250.40, 252.00, 265.10, 267.85, and 270.85. Sell-stops are under 221.70, 219.00-219.10, 215.50, 213.70, 203.80, 202.25, 198.40, 191.85, 187.00, 184.15, 182.40, 181.20, 179.20, 177.30, 175.14, 171.40, and 170.25.
Football: The bears lost 19 yards yesterday on first down, and that makes it second and 29 to go, today.
Technical Support & Resistance
Apr crude oil Support: $80.80-$81.00, $80.15-$80.30, $79.30-$79.50, $78.00-$78.10, $77.00-$77.20.
Resistance: $81.95-$82.10, $83.00-$83.16, $83.85-$83.95, $84.75-$84.85, $85.00-$85.15.
Apr heating oil Support: 207.85-209.00, 206.60-206.75, 206.00-206.20, 205.40-205.55, 204.50-204.60.
Resistance: 212.20-212.30, 214.30-214.42, 217.45-217.55, 222.65-222.75, 225.65-225.80.
Apr Rbob Support: 225.00-225.10, 223.80-224.10, 221.70-221.90, 219.00-219.15, 215.50-215.65.
Resistance: 228.55-228.70, 231.25-231.35, 239.95-240.10, 250.25-250.40, 251.80-252.00.
Oil Inventory Reports
This week’s DOE report has given us seven draws in distillate and seven draws in gasoline stocks over the last eight years. It has also given us seven builds in crude oil stocks over the last eight years. DOE reports, at this time of year, tend to be bullish for refined products and bearish for crude oil – or just bullish for refinery margins or crack spreads. Despite that information, refinery utilization is much more mixed at this time of year, with the last eight years having generated four increases and four decreases in utilization rates. Crude imports have alternated gains with drops, losing more than gained.
Last Week’s Inventory Comparison: Distillate stocks are now 3.8 million bbls, or 2.61%, higher than a year ago. Heating oil inventories are 5.3 mln bbls, or 14.52%, higher than they were a year ago. Gasoline stocks are 13.2 mln bbls (up 6.12%) higher against a year ago. Crude oil stocks are now 13.3 million bbls, or 3.73%, lower than a year ago. Residual stocks are 0.4 mln bbls (1.02%) lower than a year ago, jet fuel stocks are 0.4 mln bbls, (0.94%) higher than a year ago. Utilization is 1.97% lower than a year ago and 6.09% below the eight-year average. It is 8.17% lower than the four-year, pre-Katrina average and 4.02% below the average of the four years since the big hurricanes (Katrina & Rita) in 2005.
Last Week’s Demand: Four-week, total refined products demand came in at 19.412 million bpd, up 0.098 mln bbls on the week, and up 0.711 mln bpd and 3.80% against a year ago, reportedly. Four weeks ago, it was 0.159 mln bpd and 0.83% lower than a year ago. Four-week gasoline demand is at 8.865 mln bpd, up 0.48%, compared to down 1.26% three weeks ago. It was up 57,000 bpd on the week. Four-week distillate demand is now at 3.731 mln bpd, down 4.06%, compared to down 9.08% five weeks ago. Four-week jet demand is now at 1.269 mln bpd, down 6.35% against a year ago, compared to up 8.17% nine weeks ago. Four-week residual fuel demand is at 0.655 mln bpd, up 25.96%, compared to down 34.14% five weeks ago. Propane use is up 11.82%, to 1.419 mln bpd. Our biggest concern is that the numbers we wrote down a year ago seem to bear little relation to the numbers that the DOE report says existed a year ago. They seem to represent major unreported revisions.
This Week’s API Report: This week’s API report showed a build of 0.403 mln bbls in crude oil stocks, a draw of 0.756 mln bbls in distillate stocks and a draw of 3.654 mln bbls in gasoline inventories. Utilization was up 0.4% to 81.3%. Implied demand came in at a very healthy 9.850 mln bpd in gasoline (second strong week in a row) and at a decent 4.153 mln bpd in distillate. Crude oil imports were down a stunning 1.225 mln bpd to 7.917 mln bpd. Crude imports are at post storm levels.
DOE Weekly Inventory Statistics
| Category | Final DOE Estimate
This Week’s Estimate | History
Last Year’s Report | Most Recent Changes
Last Week’s DOE Report | Versus A Year Ago
Millions of Barrels |
| Distillate | dn 1.50 to 2.00 mln bbls | up 0.100 | dn 2.200 mln bbls | up 3.800 |
| Gasoline | dn 1.25 to 1.75 | up 3.200 | dn 2.900 | up 13.200 |
| Crude oil | up 1.75 to 2.75 | up 2.000 | up 1.400 | dn 13.300 |
| Utilization | up 0.0% to 0.5% | dn 0.6% at 82.1% | dn 1.14% at 80.73% | |
| Crude Imports | dn 0.000 to 0.500 mmbd | up 0.059 to 9.180 | dn 0.744 to 8.492 mln bpd | |
| DOE Distillate Demand | 3.645 mln bpd | dn 184,000 | Gasoline Demand | 8.992 mln bpd | up 011,000 |
| DOE Distillate Production | 3.655 mln bpd | dn 1571000 | Gasoline Production | 8.758 mln bpd | dn 073,000 |
| DOE Distillate Imports | 0.130 mln bpd | dn 224,000 | Gasoline Imports | 0.826 mln bpd | up 031,000 |
Source: US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration
Open Interest Analysis
Crude oil open interest fell by 49,824 contracts on Monday, when prices declined. That looks like heavy long liquidation, which would be supportive. Open interest had been up 121,213 prior to the selloff (now, they are up 71,389 since March 1st).
Heating oil open interest fell by 614 contracts on Monday, when prices were lower. That looks like long liquidation, which would be supportive. Open interest had been up 26,509 on Friday (now, it’s up 25,895 since March 1st).
RBOB open interest grew by 562 contracts on Monday, when prices were lower, which looks like fresh selling. Open interest is up 40,873 since March 1st. We have had heavy managed money buying this month.
Natural gas open interest fell by 6,353 on Monday, when prices were mixed. This looks like liquidation and short-covering. Open interest is up 48,289 contracts since March 1st. Fund selling has been the largest fresh input here.
Monday’s Open Interest Changes:
Crude 1,345,396 dn 49,824 Heat 322,542 dn 614 RBOB 302,640 up 562 Nat gas 864,420 dn 6,353
CFTC Commitments of Traders for Nymex (Forensic analysis for the period ended Tuesday, March 9th)
Crude oil prices gained $1.81/bbl over the latest reporting period, and the best buying came from Managed Money, which added 13,060 new longs and covered 2,282 existing shorts. Other Reportables added 859 new longs and covered 1,696 shorts, and that helped push prices higher. Swap Dealers liquidated 2,059 longs and added 12,031 shorts, and Producers added 20,407 new longs but also added 27,587 new shorts. The investment funds were pushing crude oil higher, and some speculative funds and commission house customers were also buying, probably on technicals. Swap Dealers were hedging into the strength.
In heating oil futures, prices gained 3.37 cents a gallon, and the best net buying came from Managed Money accounts, which added 2,895 new longs and covered 2,793 shorts. Other Reportables were he best net sellers, liquidating 708 existing longs and adding 4,017 new shorts. Swap Dealers liquidated 1,939 longs and added 416 new shorts. Producers added 16,278 new longs and 17,484 new shorts. Their buying helped, but Managed Money buying and short-covering lifted prices higher on the week.
Gasoline prices gained 6.37 cents a gallon during the period under review. Managed Money accounts were buying, adding 3,035 new longs and 1,359 new shorts. Swap Dealers and Other Reportables were taking profits on higher prices, liquidating 719 and 725 longs and adding 209 and 423 new shorts, respectively. Producers added 16,430 new longs but added 18,322 new shorts, effectively balancing out with some selling. Fund buying was the motive factor behind higher prices, here, as well.
In natural gas, prices dropped 19.2 cents during the period under review. All categories were both buying and selling new contracts. Managed Money accounts sold 9,032 new contracts but bought just 5,055 new longs. Swap Dealers added 3,253 new longs but only 188 new shorts. Producers were fairly well balanced, adding 6,014 new longs and adding 6,857 new shorts, and Other Reportables added 869 new longs and 794 new shorts. These numbers show Swap Dealers effectively buying the extra contracts sold by the funds (Managed Money), which were once again pounding quotes lower.
Natural Gas & Utility Generation
Natural gas prices lost another 4.4 cents per million Btu yesterday on continuing forecasts for warmer-than-normal temperatures. The forecasts are now all the way out to near the end of March. The National Weather Service (NWS) is calling for warmer readings from the 23rd to the 29th from the Midwest to the Atlantic, encompassing everything north of the Chesapeake. Some private forecasters are calling for near normal readings towards the end of March, following on the heels of warmer-than-normal temperatures, according to Dow Jones.
At the heart of the bearish impact of these forecasts is the underlying assumption that warmer temperatures will lead to smaller storage withdrawals or larger builds (once we get to the point that storage levels build again, usually in April). Storage levels have come a very long way from where they were at the start of the heating season, when storage levels were 379 bcf and 11.11% higher than a year ago. They were 414 bcf and 12.27% above the five-year average for the final week of October.
Now, they are 71 bcf and 4.18% lower than a year ago and 19 bcf and 1.18% above the five-year average. Prices are actually 25 cents per mllion Btu lower than they were after those figures at the end of October were released (at the end of the first week in November). The bears would argue that rig counts have been rising, but the lag factor steals a large part of that away. Today’s production is being influenced by rig counts seen earlier. It will take time for rigs being brought into service now to have their full impact on output. The latest Baker-Hughes report showed 927 rigs in service, up 22% from end-2009.
Warming weather and increasing rig counts are bearish factors that are likely to make the supply-demand picture more bearish. Having said that, we must say that this present has not been given its due. The almost complete erosion of a heavy surplus (at the start of the season) has not been given its moment in the sun.
In cash trading yesterday, Henry Hub prices were at $4.31-$4.40, up $0.00-$0.09 on the day (DJN). SoCal prices were at $4.53-$4.63, up $0.08-$0.10 on the day. El Paso Permian prices were up $0.09-$0.13 at $4.38-$4.45. Katy prices were up $0.06-$0.08 to $4.32-$4.42. Waha prices were up $0.10-$0.11 at $4.34-$4.44. Transco 6 was up $0.04-$0.04 to $4.67-$4.76/mmBtu, according to Dow Jones News (DJN).
Palo Verde prices were last quoted at $44.50-$46.25/mwh. Northeastern prices last traded at $30.50-$41.50. Cinergy was last at $32.00-$33.25. Ercot was last at $35.25-$35.75/mwh.
Support is at $4.39-$4.42, $4.15-$4.17, $4.05-$4.08, $3.73-$3.75, $3.66-$3.68, $3.50-$3.53, $3.44-$3.46, $3.28-$3.32, $2.91-$2.93, $2.80-$2.82, $2.74-$2.75, and $2.69-$2.70. Resistance is at $4.59-$4.63, $4.76-$4.79, $4.86-$4.89, $4.97-$5.00, $5.16-$5.17, $5.46-$5.47, $5.55-$5.60, $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03, $6.09-$6.11, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37, $6.65-$6.69, $6.90-$6.94, $7.01-$7.04, $7.28-$7.31, and $7.34-$7.36.
Apr Natural Gas: Support : $4.32-$4.34, $4.15-$4.17, $4.05-$4.08, $3.73-$3.75, $3.66-$3.68, $3.50-$3.53.
Resistance: $4.44-$4.47, $4.59-$4.63, $4.76-$4.79, $4.86-$4.89, $4.97-$5.00, $5.16-$5.17.
Natural gas prices were lower again, but the momentum lower is flagging.
Dollars per million Btu
Natural gas prices are approaching oversold levels.
Ratio
EIA Weekly Storage Figures
Last week’s EIA report showed a draw of 111 bcf on expectations for a draw of 112-113 bcf. Stocks are now 71 bcf lower than a year ago, against a deficit of 71 bcf a week ago, a deficit of 56 bcf two weeks ago and a surplus of 26 bcf three weeks ago. Stocks are now 4.18% lower than a year ago. They are 19 bcf and 1.18% above the five-year average.
For this week, the eight-year average (of similar Friday reports) was a draw of 48.88 bcf. The five-year average was a draw of 42.0 bcf. Last year’s draw was 30 bcf. There have been three draws of 85-89 bcf in the last eight years.
EIA Report
| Region | 03-05-10 | 02-26-10 | Change | Last Year | 5 Yr Avg |
| Cons East | 789 | 861 | dn 72 | 716 | 786 |
| Cons West | 289 | 296 | dn 07 | 289 | 234 |
| Producing | 548 | 580 | dn 32 | 693 | 587 |
| Total US | 1626 | 1737 | dn 111 | 1697 | 1607 |
Bcf, or Billions of cubic feet. Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy
News & Views
| In trading on Nymex, April crude oil prices were up $0.70 at $82.40/barrel at 7.30 AM EDT, this morning. April heating oil prices were up 1.48 cents to 2.1291/gallon. April RBOB prices were up 1.76 cents to 2.2926. April natural gas prices were down $0.018 to $4.329/mmBtu. The dollar was weak earlier and broke support, but has clawed its way back. Oil prices are still higher, though. DOE Expectations The table below lists the final survey results for Dow Jones, Bloomberg and Reuters. The DOE report will be released at 10:30 EST on Wednesday morning this week. Category Dow Jones Bloomberg Reuters Crude up 1.000 up 1.100 up 1.100 mln bbls Distillate dn 1.000 dn 1.300 dn 1.100 Gasoline dn 0.600 dn 1.000 dn 0.800 Utilization up 0.1% unchanged up 0.1% 
Crude oil prices had been having trouble breaking $83.00 – and sustaining themselves above that level. They sold off Friday and Monday and tried to try again yesterday. The next step is crucial. | 
Heating oil prices had advanced to successively fresh highs – five new highs in eight trading days – but the momentum higher was lacking punch. Prices have reorganized and are now trying to burst through to new highs, breaking above the high at 214.42. DOE History: Distillate stocks have fallen in seven of the last eight years, by an average of 1.816 mln bbls. The eight-year average is a draw of 1.576 mln bbls. Gasoline stocks fell in seven of the last eight years, for a seven-year draw of 2.478 mln bbls and an eight-year average draw of 1.768 mln bbls. Crude oil stocks have been higher in seven of the last eight years for a seven-year average build of 2.119 mln bbls and it has an eight-year average build of 1.692 mln bbls. Utilization has been higher in four of the last eight years and has an eight-year average increase of 0.037%, with an eight-year average utilization figure of 87.01%. The four-year, pre-hurricane utilization average was 89.30%. Since Katrina, refineries have run at an average utilization rate of 84.72%. Crude oil imports have been lower in three of the last six years, and the average crude oil import figure over the last six years has dropped 179,000 bpd. The average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been 9.694 million bpd. Imports were 1.2 mln bpd below that figure in last week’s report. |
| Crude prices have reorganized and need to break out from here. | |
This morning’s DOE report will be the major oil factor, today, but the dollar is on the edge of breaking down and leaving a major top overhead, against the euro. That could turn out to be the bigger factor as the day progresses.
An Illustrated Look at Energy Market Factors
A Look at the US Dollar Versus the Euro
Dollar-Euro (dollar in euro cents): Three-Month Bar-Chart 
The US dollar was back down again to levels just above major support, after a strong rally on Monday. Standard & Poor’s took Greece off its ratings watch, and that helped the euro rally against the greenback. The Federal Reserve also gave a cautious outlook on the US economy, dousing hopes that interest rates might be raised in the US sooner than later.
http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forexqkchart&curcode1=USD&curcode2=EUR
A Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (djia)
Dow Jones Industrial Average: One-Year Chart
The DJIA ended with a gain of 43.83 points yesterday, as traders found hope in the Fed’s message that interest rates will continue to remain low “for an extended period” going forward.
Source: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=DJIA&sid=1643
A Look at Inventories
Crude oil inventories are rising ahead of increased utilization rates this summer.
A Look at Imports
Thirteen week crude oil imports have reached their lowest levels in decades.
Recommendations for Specific Market Segments
Heating Oil Distributors Heating oil prices have spent the last three days repositioning themselves for a run at their recent highs at 214.42. Late last week, this market felt heavy, despite having made five new recent highs in eight sessions. The trend was clearly higher, but the bulls did not feel that their long positions were being sufficiently advanced. Last night’s API report did little to change the underlying fundamental picture by enough for the bulls to feel that supply or demand will be the factors that push prices over the finish line. The US dollar, currently right on top of major support, may offer a better opportunity for prices to advance dramatically. The market typically finds something at this time of year, and we would continue to approach this market from the long side moving forward. We would be cautiously bullish in our holdings. Diesel Users We would hold our caps and will be buying more on any dips. NYH Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…217.45-218.20 plus 6.375 USG Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…213.95-214.45 plus 2.750 Jet/Kerosene Users & Airlines New York Harbor cash market differentials were 6.00 to 6.50 cents over January heating oil in NY Harbor and 0.25 to 0.75 over the screen in the US Gulf. Diesel & Gasoline Marketers The sensible course is to stay hedged, but one can buy on a dip and wait to hedge it – carefully. Gasoline Blenders & End-Users Prices have broken to the upside, and we want to buy on any dips. Prompt NYH Fuel Ethanol…..160.00-163.00 Prompt USG Fuel Ethanol….154.00-156.00 Quotes from 03-16-10 Heating Oil End-Users We want to use dips to get in on the long side, using caps or calls. Speculators We bought calls last week, and we would continue to buy calls on any decent dips until March 15th. We will need to use intraday dips. Refiners The 7:5+2 crack spread was $11.92 yesterday. Crack spreads typically improve from March to May. Crude Oil Producers Crude oil prices seem to have needed the opportunity to reorganize before launching another assault on the resistance in the $83.00-$84.00 zone. The next few days will decide if they can break that. | Prompt Jet Fuel Prices New York Harbor 217.45-217.95 US Gulf 211.70-212.20 Midwest (Group Three) 215.45-216.45 Midwest (Chicago) 214.45-215.45 Los Angeles 216.00-217.00 San Francisco 216.00-217.00 Portland, Oregon 216.00-217.00 Cents per gallon Propane Prices Mont Belvieu……….…..non-TET………$1.088900 Cents per gallon  Gasoline prices were struggling last week to break over the high established on Wednesday and the settlement reached two days earlier, last Monday. In the final analysis, the market decided to sell off, reorganize and give it another attempt. Yesterday’s settlement was the third highest close for the current leg higher, and that leaves breaking over 229.00 and 230.00 as the next objectives in this market.
Last night’s API gasoline demand was strong for a second week running, and it remains to be seen if this week’s DOE report will build on that. |