Prices for March 18th, 2010
| HEATING OIL cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | APR | 213.62 | 210.69 | 211.91 | dn 02.04 | | MAY | 215.00 | 212.00 | 213.29 | dn 01.84 | | JUN | 215.57 | 213.50 | 214.79 | dn 01.54 | | JUL | 217.29 | 215.43 | 216.55 | dn 01.35 | | AUG | 219.00 | 217.20 | 218.35 | dn 01.15 | | SEP | 220.91 | 218.92 | 220.22 | dn 00.97 | | OCT | 222.06 | 221.20 | 222.16 | dn 00.83 | | NOV | 224.55 | 223.09 | 224.22 | dn 00.68 | | DEC | 227.02 | 224.89 | 226.39 | dn 00.58 | | JAN | 228.78 | 227.19 | 228.36 | dn 00.48 | | FEB | 229.58 | 228.50 | 229.29 | dn 00.37 | | MAR | 228.82 | 228.67 | 229.24 | dn 00.22 | | Estimated Volume (day before) total all prev day 88,821 | | NYMEX CRUDE OIL dollars per barrel | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | APR | 82.85 | 81.68 | 82.20 | dn 00.73 | | MAY | 83.19 | 82.01 | 82.54 | dn 00.67 | | JUN | 83.48 | 82.40 | 82.94 | dn 00.62 | | JUL | 83.74 | 82.86 | 83.34 | dn 00.55 | | AUG | 83.90 | 83.21 | 83.68 | dn 00.47 | | SEP | 84.20 | 83.42 | 83.94 | dn 00.42 | | | | | | | | | Estimated Volume… 651,954 Opec Basket…$78.25 up $1.63
Prompt #2 Oil NYH 88..-1.25 to -1.00, 74 Lo S…+5.25 to +5.75
US Gulf 88 grade…-4.00 to -3.50, 74 grade Lo S…+1.00 to +1.50 Group .........+5.50 to +5.75 Lo S.....+5.50 to +5.75
Chicago ......+0.00 to +0.50 cash quotes by Dow Jones | | | |
| NYMEX RBOB GASOLINE cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | APR | 231.00 | 228.00 | 230.09 | dn 00.88 | | MAY | 231.00 | 227.91 | 229.85 | dn 01.08 | | JUN | 229.25 | 226.95 | 228.61 | dn 01.31 | | JUL | 228.00 | 225.72 | 227.32 | dn 01.45 | | AUG | 225.98 | 224.83 | 226.05 | dn 01.50 | | SEP | 225.20 | 223.37 | 224.69 | dn 01.52 | | OCT | 213.83 | 212.33 | 213.51 | dn 01.55 | | NOV | 211.35 | 210.94 | 211.90 | dn 01.49 | | Estimated RB Volume day before 99,040 | | NYMEX NATURAL GAS dollars per mmBtu | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | APR | 4.292 | 4.054 | 4.085 | dn 0.218 | | MAY | 4.357 | 4.119 | 4.153 | dn 0.218 | | JUN | 4.429 | 4.195 | 4.226 | dn 0.217 | | JUL | 4.509 | 4.289 | 4.321 | dn 0.212 | | | Estimated Volume…day before (178,204)
Nymex statistics are based on composite Access & Day Sessions
Prompt Gasoline NYH M5 -13.00 to -12.50 RBOB +10.00 /+11.00
US Gulf M4: -11.50 to -11.00 RBOB -1.50 to -1.00
L.A. Conv Reg 234.00-235.00, N-grade Group 221.60-221.85 Chi 225.60-226.60 | |
Market Review for Thursday
HE US dollar seemed to be on the ropes on Wednesday, lying right on top of major support above 72 euro cents, the dollar had broken one low and seemed fated to fall beneath the critical 72.00 level. And, then some profit-taking came in. Reports that Greece might need to ask the IMF for help sent traders scampering for greenbacks, and the suddenness of the change in opinion seems to have caught investors leaning heavily the wrong way. The result was like seeing a shark fin, and it was everyone out of the risk water.
Of course, we have seen this all before. Risk comes in and out of fashion two or three times a week, and the end result has been a steady advance in equities and commodities prices. Oil has become the cookie that investors like to dunk in their glassful of risk milk. By today or Monday, by Tuesday at the latest, risk appetite will be back in vogue, and prices will continue their ascent. Yesterday, oil traders took their cue from the dollar; they could have followed equities just as easily.
| Fuel for Thought In court rulings yesterday, OAO Yukos won injunctions in American and British courts that could help it secure $389 million in payments from Rosneft, ordered by a Dutch court last year. Rosneft acquired Yukos’ oil-producing assets in a Russian government action taken in 2004. While this is expected to have a limited immediate impact on Rosneft’s ability to operate, some observers say that it will make it more difficult for Western companies to pay the company for oil exports. In any event, the legal challenge will continue, and these latest rulings are potentially embarrassing for the Russian government and for Rosneft, the country’s largest oil producer. It could lead to tighter supplies in Europe. |
Investors ignored this week’s weekly unemployment report, which showed an estimated 5,000 fewer Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits. That still left 457,000 new claims. These numbers were in line with expectations. At the same time, those filing for extended benefits increased. In related news, the cost of living in the United States was unchanged in February, confirming the Fed’s contention that inflation should remain under wraps as the economic recovery continues.
These numbers suggest a certain stasis, though, in the recovery. There are a number of ways one could interpret these figures, and one could just as easily see a fatal stalling before a second dip in the economy as a pause before growth picks up steam.
Yesterday’s decline came just a day after oil prices had reached new two-month (or more) highs. Gasoline had had its highest settlement since October 1st, 2008, nearly a year and a half ago. While inflation seems to be under wraps, the steady increase in gasoline prices can have a psychologically negative effect on consumers, especially if it accelerates, as it typically does, from here.
Technicals
Oil prices sold off yesterday, primarily in reaction to a stronger US dollar, which had seemed poised to break major support at 72 euro cents. When that breakdown failed to occur, short-covering and technical buying lifted the dollar and pushed oil prices away from recent highs. Crude oil still needs a settlement over $83.20 and gasoline needs a finish above 231.34 to confirm upward movement. Crude ultimately needs to break $83.95 to continue higher.
Dollars per barrel
Above: The crack spread (7:5+2) finished at $12.26/bbl yesterday, its highest level since $13.20 on August 18th.
April crude oil now has buy-stops over $83.18, $83.95, $84.83, $85.13, $89.82, $90.99, $93.02, $96.03, and $100.37. Sell-stops are under $81.68, $79.30, $78.00, $77.00, $76.30, $73.70, $72.60, $71.30, $70.75, $69.30, $68.55, $68.00, $65.80-$66.20, and $64.95. April heating oil has buy-stops over 214.42, 217.55, 222.72, 225.80, 227.05, 229.08, 238.95, 249.62, and 251.50. Sell stops are under 210.69, 204.50, 201.55, 200.55, 199.00, 196.40, 190.75, 189.95, 187.45, 186.50, 182.63, 177.00, 176.68, 173.75, 171.10, 170.35, and 168.60. April RBOB has buy-stops over 231.50, 240.10, 250.40, 252.00, 265.10, 267.85, and 270.85. Sell-stops are under 228.00, 221.70, 219.00-219.10, 215.50, 213.70, 203.80, 202.25, 198.40, 191.85, 187.00, 184.15, 182.40, 181.20, 179.20, 177.30, 175.14, 171.40, and 170.25.
Football: The bears gained seven yards yesterday on third and 41 to go. That makes it a hard fourth and 34 to go, here, today.
Technical Support & Resistance
Apr crude oil Support: $81.68-$81.85, $80.80-$81.00, $80.15-$80.30, $79.30-$79.50, $78.00-$78.10.
Resistance: $83.00-$83.18, $83.85-$83.95, $84.75-$84.85, $85.00-$85.15, $89.75-$89.82.
Apr heating oil Support: 210.65-210.75, 207.85-209.00, 206.60-206.75, 206.00-206.20, 205.40-205.55.
Resistance: 214.30-214.42, 217.45-217.55, 222.65-222.75, 225.65-225.80, 226.90-227.05.
Apr Rbob Support: 228.00-228.15, 225.00-225.10, 223.80-224.10, 221.70-221.90, 219.00-219.15.
Resistance: 231.35-231.50, 239.95-240.10, 250.25-250.40, 251.80-252.00, 264.90-265.10.
Oil Inventory Reports
This week’s DOE report essentially followed the seasonal script for this time of year, giving us a build (near expectations) in crude oil stocks and draws (slightly larger than generally expected) in refined product inventories. Refinery utilization was lower. All of these developments were bullish for refinery margins or crack spreads. Although the refined products inventory draws were larger than the average of expectations, they were within our ranges, so we would hardly call them surprises. This was a comparatively mild report, especially in comparison with those we have seen over the last few months.
This Week’s Inventory Comparison: Distillate stocks are now 2.9 million bbls, or 2.00%, higher than a year ago. Heating oil inventories are 3.8 mln bbls, or 10.38%, higher than they were a year ago. Gasoline stocks are 11.3 mln bbls (up 5.23%) higher against a year ago. Crude oil stocks are now 14.8 million bbls, or 4.12%, lower than a year ago. Residual stocks are 0.2 mln bbls (0.51%) lower than a year ago, jet fuel stocks are 0.8 mln bbls, (1.89%) higher than a year ago. Utilization is 1.50% lower than a year ago and 6.41% below the eight-year average. It is 8.70% lower than the four-year, pre-Katrina average and 4.12% below the average of the four years since the big hurricanes (Katrina & Rita) in 2005.
This Week’s Demand: Four-week, total refined products demand came in at 19.347 million bpd, down 0.065 mln bbls on the week, and up 0.654 mln bpd and 3.50% against a year ago, reportedly. Five weeks ago, it was 0.159 mln bpd and 0.83% lower than a year ago. Four-week gasoline demand is at 8.947 mln bpd, up 1.15%, compared to down 1.26% four weeks ago. It was up 82,000 bpd on the week. Four-week distillate demand is now at 3.725 mln bpd, down 3.07%, compared to down 9.08% six weeks ago. Four-week jet demand is now at 1.289 mln bpd, down 6.59% against a year ago, compared to up 8.17% ten weeks ago. Four-week residual fuel demand is at 0.588 mln bpd, up 7.89%, compared to up 25.96% one week ago. Propane use is up 7.34%, to 1.330 mln bpd. We are still concerned about the DOE’s figures. According to the figures for all products supplied, released a year ago, this year’s total four-week average would be up 1.18% on the year, rather than up 3.50%.
This Week’s API Report: This week’s API report showed a build of 0.403 mln bbls in crude oil stocks, a draw of 0.756 mln bbls in distillate stocks and a draw of 3.654 mln bbls in gasoline inventories. Utilization was up 0.4% to 81.3%. Implied demand came in at a very healthy 9.850 mln bpd in gasoline (second strong week in a row) and at a decent 4.153 mln bpd in distillate. Crude oil imports were down a stunning 1.225 mln bpd to 7.917 mln bpd. Crude imports are at post storm levels.
DOE Weekly Inventory Statistics
| Category | Final DOE Estimate
This Week’s Estimate | History
Last Year’s Report | Most Recent Changes
This Week’s DOE Report | Versus A Year Ago
Millions of Barrels |
| Distillate | dn 1.50 to 2.00 mln bbls | up 0.100 | dn 1.500 mln bbls | up 2.900 |
| Gasoline | dn 1.25 to 1.75 | up 3.200 | dn 1.700 | up 11.300 |
| Crude oil | up 1.75 to 2.75 | up 2.000 | up 1.000 | dn 14.800 |
| Utilization | up 0.0% to 0.5% | dn 0.6% at 82.1% | dn 0.10% at 80.60% | |
| Crude Imports | dn 0.000 to 0.500 mmbd | up 0.059 to 9.180 | dn 0.064 to 8.428 mln bpd | |
| DOE Distillate Demand | 3.762 mln bpd | up 117,000 | Gasoline Demand | 8.849 mln bpd | dn 143,000 |
| DOE Distillate Production | 3.791 mln bpd | up 136,000 | Gasoline Production | 8.961 mln bpd | up 203,000 |
| DOE Distillate Imports | 0.163 mln bpd | up 033,000 | Gasoline Imports | 0.608 mln bpd | dn 198,000 |
Source: US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration
Open Interest Analysis
Crude oil open interest fell by 15,099 contracts on Wednesday, when prices advanced. That looks like short-covering, which would be bearish. Open interest has increased by 68,320 contracts since March 1st.
Heating oil open interest rose by 1,646 contracts on Wednesday, when prices were higher. That looks like new buying and would be supportive. Open interest has increased by 33,459 contracts since March 1st.
RBOB open interest grew by 4,971 contracts on Wednesday, when prices were higher, which looks like fresh buying. Open interest is up 56,214 since March 1st. The best buying has come from managed money or funds.
Natural gas open interest fell by 5,442 on Wednesday, when prices were lower. That looks like long liquidation, which is theoretically supportive. Open interest has increased by 37,875 contracts since March 1st. The best selling came from funds.
Wednesday’s Open Interest Changes:
Crude 1,342,327 dn 15,099 Heat 330,106 up 1,646 RBOB 317,981 up 4,971 Nat gas 854,006 dn 5,442
CFTC Commitments of Traders for Nymex (Forensic analysis for the period ended Tuesday, March 9th)
Crude oil prices gained $1.81/bbl over the latest reporting period, and the best buying came from Managed Money, which added 13,060 new longs and covered 2,282 existing shorts. Other Reportables added 859 new longs and covered 1,696 shorts, and that helped push prices higher. Swap Dealers liquidated 2,059 longs and added 12,031 shorts, and Producers added 20,407 new longs but also added 27,587 new shorts. The investment funds were pushing crude oil higher, and some speculative funds and commission house customers were also buying, probably on technicals. Swap Dealers were hedging into the strength.
In heating oil futures, prices gained 3.37 cents a gallon, and the best net buying came from Managed Money accounts, which added 2,895 new longs and covered 2,793 shorts. Other Reportables were he best net sellers, liquidating 708 existing longs and adding 4,017 new shorts. Swap Dealers liquidated 1,939 longs and added 416 new shorts. Producers added 16,278 new longs and 17,484 new shorts. Their buying helped, but Managed Money buying and short-covering lifted prices higher on the week.
Gasoline prices gained 6.37 cents a gallon during the period under review. Managed Money accounts were buying, adding 3,035 new longs and 1,359 new shorts. Swap Dealers and Other Reportables were taking profits on higher prices, liquidating 719 and 725 longs and adding 209 and 423 new shorts, respectively. Producers added 16,430 new longs but added 18,322 new shorts, effectively balancing out with some selling. Fund buying was the motive factor behind higher prices, here, as well.
In natural gas, prices dropped 19.2 cents during the period under review. All categories were both buying and selling new contracts. Managed Money accounts sold 9,032 new contracts but bought just 5,055 new longs. Swap Dealers added 3,253 new longs but only 188 new shorts. Producers were fairly well balanced, adding 6,014 new longs and adding 6,857 new shorts, and Other Reportables added 869 new longs and 794 new shorts. These numbers show Swap Dealers effectively buying the extra contracts sold by the funds (Managed Money), which were once again pounding quotes lower.
Natural Gas & Utility Generation
Natural gas prices dropped steeply yesterday, losing nearly 22 cents, after a number of sessions in which it lost mildly. In the process, the crude-to-gas ratio bulged up above 20-to-one, underlining what we feel is a major factor here for investment funds. These seem to be long oil and short gas, and this is looking like an annual trade, now, after last year’s well-publicized success by a major trader. It has been clear for a while, now, that one or more large managed funds has been pressing this market lower, and it seems to have been actively pushing oil prices higher. The movement of the ratio seems to be one of its objectives.
The bears had already pressed the longs into liquidating, and this week’s EIA underground storage report offered more grist for the bearish mill. In the process, natural gas prices yesterday surrendered more than 5% and prices dropped to their lowest levels in nearly half a year. The trigger was the release of the weekly EIA underground storage figures, which showed a smaller-than-predicted drawdown of just 11 bcf. Estimates had been calling for a drawdown of 28-35 bcf. And last year, there had been a drawdown of 30-42 bcf, depending on whether one used the exact date or the similar Friday. The five-year average had likewise been either 30 or 42 bcf. Either way, though, this week’s drawdown fell dramatically short of the numbers typically seen this week. The year-to-year deficit fell from 71 bcf (4.18%) to 40 bcf (2.41%, while the surplus against the five-year average rose from 19 bcf (1.18%) to 73 bcf (4.73%).
Temperature forecasts remain moderate to mild for most of the rest of this month. We may get some temperature swings next week, but after that, most meteorologists are calling for steadily warmer-than-normal readings. They have certainly been substantially warmer than usual since Tuesday, here in the Northeast, as last weekend’s catastrophic Nor’easter passed out to sea.
In cash trading yesterday, Henry Hub prices were at $4.18-$4.23, down $0.00-$0.06 on the day (DJN). SoCal prices were at $4.24-$4.38, down $0.14-$0.19 on the day. El Paso Permian prices were down $0.13-$0.20 at $4.10-$4.20. Katy prices were down $0.07-$0.11 to $4.17-$4.24. Waha prices were down $0.14-$0.15 at $4.10-$4.20. Transco 6 was down $0.08-$0.10 to $4.47-$4.52/mmBtu, according to Dow Jones News (DJN).
Palo Verde prices were last quoted at $36.00.41.45/mwh. Northeastern prices last traded at $29.75-$40.25. Cinergy was last at $31.25-$32.50. Ercot was last at $33.00-$33.50/mwh.
Support is at $4.05-$4.08, $3.73-$3.75, $3.66-$3.68, $3.50-$3.53, $3.44-$3.46, $3.28-$3.32, $2.91-$2.93, $2.80-$2.82, $2.74-$2.75, and $2.69-$2.70. Resistance is at $4.29-$4.30, $4.36-$4.37, $4.44-$4.47, $4.59-$4.63, $4.76-$4.79, $4.86-$4.89, $4.97-$5.00, $5.16-$5.17, $5.46-$5.47, $5.55-$5.60, $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03, $6.09-$6.11, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37, $6.65-$6.69, $6.90-$6.94, $7.01-$7.04, $7.28-$7.31, and $7.34-$7.36.
Apr Natural Gas: Support : $4.05-$4.08, $3.73-$3.75, $3.66-$3.68, $3.50-$3.53, $3.44-$3.46, $3.28-$3.32.
Resistance: $4.36-$4.37, $4.44-$4.47, $4.59-$4.63, $4.76-$4.79, $4.86-$4.89, $4.97-$5.00.
Natural gas prices dropped steeply yesterday, in reaction to this week’s EIA underground storage report.
Dollars per million Btu
The crude to gas ratio finished yesterday at 20.12-to-one, its highest level since September 17th, 2009.
Ratio
EIA Weekly Storage Figures
Last week’s EIA report showed a draw of 111 bcf on expectations for a draw of 112-113 bcf. Stocks are now 40 bcf lower than a year ago, against a deficit of 71 bcf a week ago, a deficit of 71 bcf two weeks ago and a deficit of 56 bcf three weeks ago. Stocks are now 2.41% lower than a year ago. They are 73 bcf and 4.73% above the five-year average.
For this week, the eight-year average (of similar Friday reports) was a draw of 48.88 bcf. The five-year average was a draw of 42.0 bcf. Last year’s draw was 30 bcf. Estimates are calling for a draw of 28-35 bcf in this week’s report.
EIA Report
| Region | 03-12-10 | 03-05-10 | Change | Last Year | 5 Yr Avg |
| Cons East | 770 | 789 | dn 19 | 681 | 732 |
| Cons West | 283 | 289 | dn 06 | 278 | 230 |
| Producing | 562 | 548 | up 14 | 697 | 580 |
| Total US | 1615 | 1626 | dn 11 | 1655 | 1542 |
Bcf, or Billions of cubic feet. Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy
News & Views
| In trading on Nymex, April crude oil prices were down $0.61 at $81.59/barrel at 8.30 AM EDT, this morning. April heating oil prices were down 1.76 cents to 2.1015/gallon. April RBOB prices were down 1.59 cents to 2.2850. April natural gas prices were down $0.011 to $4.074/mmBtu. The US dollar has been stronger, again, in trading overnight and this morning, and it has been the main factor behind weaker oil prices this morning. This could be a waning influence, though, with Asian equities markets higher overnight. Oil prices have typically vacillated between following the dollar and equities in the last year – when the two give conflicting signals. The dollar has been strong, now, for two days, but the DJIA has also advanced to new highs recently. We should be prepared for oil prices – and prices of other commodities – to get swept up again by resurgent risk appetites before much more time passes. Investors would take cues from equities. 
Crude oil prices backed away from resistance at $83.10-$83.18 yesterday, and they need to settle above that resistance before being able to assault the major resistance at $83.95. | 
Heating oil prices sold off yesterday, leaving resistance overhead at 214.40-214.42. There is still a strong band of resistance from 215.85 to 222.72, and prices will ultimately need to try to tackle resistance there if they are going to trend higher into May. At the end of the day, the argument that has been repeated over and over for more than a year, now, is that higher equities imply a stronger economy, and that, in its turn, should lead to higher energy demand. So far, at least, investors have not required any real sign that any of that is actually taking place; the theory itself, has been enough to push oil prices higher. The fact that oil and gas have been going in opposite directions has also been facilely glossed over as investment has continued to pour into the oil markets in waves that seem to have little to do with oil supply or demand. The DOE has also been slowly improving its four-week demand aggregates. While we can not say that demand growth has become robust, it does seem to have improved, if slowly and without momentum. Our fear is that the oil complex will turn back up, from a combination of technical upward pressure and the invariable switch of focus from a strong dollar to either stronger equities or at some point a weaker dollar. |
| Crude prices still seem to be in an upward trend. | |
We do not think it will take much to push oil prices back up again. Equities have been strong recently, and a change in focus to equities, or a change in the movement of the dollar, would be enough to turn prices back up, again.
An Illustrated Look at Energy Market Factors
A Look at the US Dollar Versus the Euro
Dollar-Euro (dollar in euro cents): Three-Month Bar-Chart 
The US dollar has rallied steeply since the bears failed to break the dollar down below 72 euro cents on Wednesday. The rally started on Wednesday afternoon and it kept going through yesterday afternoon. It seems that a number of shorts were “caught” by the sudden turn back up, and they were scrambling to cover yesterday. This kept oil on the defensive.
http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forexqkchart&curcode1=USD&curcode2=EUR
A Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (djia)
Dow Jones Industrial Average: One-Year Chart
The DJIA ended with a gain of 45.50 points yesterday, as investors were buying equities, but were avoiding commodities. After the Dow had made new highs on Wednesday, it seems that investors may have decided that equities are better assets to own right now. In any event, new highs did not help oil or commodities yesterday.
Source: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=DJIA&sid=1643
A Look at Inventories
Crude oil stocks have started to rebuild as we head into the heavier refining period of summer.
A Look at Imports
Thirteen week crude oil imports remain at extraordinarily depressed levels.
Recommendations for Specific Market Segments
Heating Oil Distributors Heating oil prices sold off yesterday, but it was almost all on the stronger US dollar. We cannot count on dollar strength to serve as the cue for commodities markets for any extended period. If the dollar remains weak, investors will switch gears and follow stronger equities. Traders do not seem to discuss fundamentals in this market, even when prices decline. In a number of respects, this entire complex has become a surrogate for how large investors are feeling about the world economy. We do not seem to be able to go for very long without learning that risk appetite has sharpened again, and investors have come piling back in on the long side in oil markets. We would use this dip to add to long-bias holdings, and we continue to prefer caps and calls to futures. Still, we see more upside potential in this market. Diesel Users We would hold our caps and would be buying more on any dips. NYH Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…218.40-218.90 plus 6.750 USG Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…214.40-214.90 plus 2.750 Jet/Kerosene Users & Airlines New York Harbor cash market differentials were 6.50 to 7.00 cents over January heating oil in NY Harbor and 0.25 to 0.75 over the screen in the US Gulf. Diesel & Gasoline Marketers The sensible course is to stay hedged, but one can buy on a dip and wait to hedge it – carefully. Gasoline Blenders & End-Users Prices have broken to the upside, and we want to buy on any dips. Prompt NYH Fuel Ethanol…..160.00-164.00 Prompt USG Fuel Ethanol….155.00-158.00 Quotes from 03-18-10 Heating Oil End-Users We want to buy on any decent dips, using caps or calls. Speculators We bought calls through March 15th. We would still buy dips here. Refiners The 7:5+2 crack spread was $12.26 yesterday. This week’s DOE report was bullish for crack spreads (products over crude). Crude Oil Producers Crude oil prices sold off yesterday, but we see it as an opportunity to get long in this market. We expect risk appetite to return. | Prompt Jet Fuel Prices New York Harbor 218.40-218.90 US Gulf 212.15-212.65 Midwest (Group Three) 215.90-216.90 Midwest (Chicago) 216.15-216.90 Los Angeles 217.00-218.00 San Francisco 217.00-218.00 Portland, Oregon 217.00-218.00 Cents per gallon Propane Prices Mont Belvieu……….…..non-TET………$1.118470 Cents per gallon  Gasoline prices sold off yesterday, after having made new highs on Wednesday. There is resistance at 231.34-231.48, and prices need to settle above 231.34, at a minimum, to continue higher. Ideally, they would finish above 231.50 on that run.
A settle over 231.34 would give us swing objectives to 249.35 and potentially as high as 267.41. Prices already had swing objectives to 242.28 and potentially as high as 289.89. |