Prices for March 23rd, 2010
| HEATING OIL cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | APR | 210.46 | 206.83 | 210.18 | up 01.81 | | MAY | 211.66 | 208.19 | 211.43 | up 01.64 | | JUN | 212.99 | 209.67 | 212.74 | up 01.45 | | JUL | 214.50 | 211.94 | 214.34 | up 01.25 | | AUG | 216.21 | 213.80 | 216.04 | up 01.15 | | SEP | 218.15 | 215.75 | 217.85 | up 01.02 | | OCT | 220.31 | 217.80 | 219.91 | up 01.01 | | NOV | 222.16 | 220.43 | 222.11 | up 00.98 | | DEC | 224.74 | 222.10 | 224.36 | up 00.94 | | JAN | ---.-- | ---.-- | ---.-- | -- --.-- | | FEB | 226.95 | 226.95 | 227.58 | up 00.93 | | MAR | ---.-- | ---.-- | ---.-- | -- --.-- | | Estimated Volume (day before) total all prev day 86,376 | | NYMEX CRUDE OIL dollars per barrel | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | APR | 82.20 | 80.85 | 81.91 | up 00.31 | | MAY | 82.54 | 81.25 | 82.25 | up 00.28 | | JUN | 82.92 | 81.65 | 82.63 | up 00.25 | | JUL | 83.20 | 82.00 | 82.96 | up 00.22 | | AUG | 83.42 | 82.36 | 83.23 | up 00.21 | | SEP | 83.56 | 82.51 | 83.44 | up 00.19 | | | | | | | | | Estimated Volume… 565,137 Opec Basket…$76.75 dn $0.43
Prompt #2 Oil NYH 88..-1.25 to -0.75, 74 Lo S…+5.25 to +5.75
US Gulf 88 grade…-3.75 to -3.25, 74 grade Lo S…+2.00 to +2.50 Group .........+5.00 to +5.75 Lo S.....+5.00 to +5.75
Chicago ......+0.00 to +0.50 cash quotes by Dow Jones | | | |
| NYMEX RBOB GASOLINE cents per gallon | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | APR | 226.64 | 223.23 | 226.28 | up 00.66 | | MAY | 226.60 | 223.21 | 226.25 | up 00.65 | | JUN | 225.76 | 222.59 | 225.49 | up 00.71 | | JUL | 224.66 | 221.66 | 224.53 | up 00.79 | | AUG | 223.41 | 220.76 | 223.41 | up 00.90 | | SEP | 222.21 | 219.65 | 222.22 | up 00.98 | | OCT | 211.22 | 208.40 | 211.23 | up 01.03 | | NOV | 208.50 | 208.25 | 209.57 | up 00.95 | | Estimated RB Volume day before 89,930 | | NYMEX NATURAL GAS dollars per mmBtu | | MONTH | HIGH | LOW | SETTLE | CHANGE | | APR | 4.160 | 4.058 | 4.130 | up 0.051 | | MAY | 4.217 | 4.115 | 4.190 | up 0.045 | | JUN | 4.285 | 4.180 | 4.258 | up 0.047 | | JUL | 4.374 | 4.270 | 4.352 | up 0.048 | | | Estimated Volume…day before (203,891)
Nymex statistics are based on composite Access & Day Sessions
Prompt Gasoline NYH M5 -11.00 to -10.50 RBOB +9.75 /+10.25
US Gulf M4: -13.00 to -12.50 RBOB -3.00 to -2.50
L.A. Conv Reg 228.00-229.00, N-grade Group 216.80-217.55 Chi 218.30-219.30 | |
Market Review for Tuesday
IL prices were lower in trading overnight as the dollar rallied into this early morning. After they opened on the Nymex, though, crude oil and heating oil prices pulled themselves into positive territory, largely on the back of higher equities prices. The dollar returned to nearly breakeven against the euro and then rallied again, but crude oil remained in positive territory into the early afternoon, in light trading.
The dollar’s decline towards unchanged, brief though it was, came in response to a strong advance in equities yesterday. The DJIA held gains of 40-50 points through a large chunk of its midsession and then it finished with a flourish, ending near the day’s highs, which represent highs for the current advance. The rise in equities brought back the risk-gobblers, and they were buying oil and the euro – for a while. Later on, they switched over to the Swiss Franc, which satisfied their currency hunger, and it reached an all-time high against the euro, which was still struggling to formulate a Greek solution.
| Fuel for Thought In another sign that lagging employment is acting as an anchor on the economy’s attempt to move full steam ahead, the latest monthly figure for existing home sales, from the National Association of Realtors, showed another decline. It was its third in a row. This latest figure, for February existing home sales, showed a growth rate of 0.6%, to 5.020 million homes, annualized. This is down from a 5.050 million unit pace in January, but it was slightly better than the average 5.000 million rate anticipated by a Dow Jones survey. (New home sales today) Home prices were down 1.8% from a year ago, with the median dropping $3,100 to $165,100. The number of previously-owned homes on the market increased 9.5% to 3.59 million. |
The stark reality these days is that oil, which used to be a perfectly good market of its own, has been reduced for three or four days a week to a foggy mirror of currencies, equities, or both. Three weeks ago, the dollar lost its grip on oil to surging equities. Then, about 10-12 days ago, despite a number of 40-point advances, equities gave control of oil back to the dollar. At first, that was bullish for oil prices. At the low on Wednesday a week ago, the dollar was on the brink of breaking down dramatically, and looked like it could trend lower for the foreseeable future. Instead, it held support, turned and advanced steeply, and it now sits on the windowsill of a major technical breakout to the upside. That was bearish for oil at the end of last week, leading to massive long liquidation in crude oil’s open interest last Friday. The risk-chompers are tough dogs to keep under the porch, and they were back buying oil yesterday, as they switched from the dollar to equities as their guiding light.
Last night’s API report showed a huge build of 7.5 million barrels in crude oil inventories, a build five times expectations – big enough to bring the eyes of oil traders and investors back home again to the fundamentals.
Technicals
Oil prices advanced yesterday, but all they seem to have accomplished was to establish trading ranges. Crude oil is in a range between Monday’s low of $78.57 and the major resistance at $83.18. Heating oil is in a range between 202.50 and 214.42. Gasoline prices are in a range between 220.00 and 231.50. The next direction is likely to be decided by which end of these ranges are broken decisively, first.
Dollars per barrel
Above: Gasoline prices are now inside a range between 220.00 and 231.50. The direction they break will determine our next move.
May crude oil now has buy-stops over $82.50, $83.18, $83.95, $84.83, $85.13, $89.82, $90.99, $93.02, $96.03, and $100.37. Sell-stops are under $80.85, $79.40, $78.85, $78.00, $77.00, $76.30, $73.70, $72.60, $71.30, $70.75, $69.30, $68.55, $68.00, $65.80-$66.20, and $64.95. April heating oil has buy-stops over 210.46, 211.60, 214.42, 217.55, 222.72, 225.80, 227.05, 229.08, 238.95, 249.62, and 251.50. Sell stops are under 206.80, 202.50, 201.55, 200.55, 199.00, 196.40, 190.75, 189.95, 187.45, 186.50, 182.63, 177.00, 176.68, 173.75, 171.10, 170.35, and 168.60. April RBOB has buy-stops over 226.65, 230.40, 231.50, 240.10, 250.40, 252.00, 265.10, 267.85, and 270.85. Sell-stops are under 223.20, 220.00, 219.00-219.10, 215.50, 213.70, 203.80, 202.25, 198.40, 191.85, 187.00, 184.15, 182.40, 181.20, 179.20, 177.30, 175.14, 171.40, and 170.25.
Football: The bulls gained three yards yesterday on second and four to go, and that makes it third and one to go, today.
Technical Support & Resistance
May crude oil Support: $80.85, $79.40-$79.50, $78.85-$79.00, $78.00-$78.10, $77.00-$77.20.
Resistance: $82.35-$82.50, $83.00-$83.18, $83.85-$83.95, $84.75-$84.85, $85.00-$85.15.
Apr heating oil Support: 206.60-206.75, 206.00-206.20, 205.00-205.15, 204.50-204.65, 202.50-202.65.
Resistance: 210.35-210.46, 211.45-211.60, 214.30-214.42, 217.45-217.55, 222.65-222.75.
Apr Rbob Support: 225.00-225.10, 223.20-223.50, 221.70-221.90, 220.00-220.15, 219.00-219.15.
Resistance: 226.50-226.65, 230.25-230.40, 231.35-231.50, 239.95-240.10, 250.25-250.40.
Oil Inventory Reports
This week’s DOE report has shown gasoline inventory drawdowns in each of the last eight years. Distillate stocks have dropped in seven of the last eight years. Crude oil inventories have increased in six of the last eight years, with crude oil imports up in four of the last six years. Utilization has dropped in four years and risen the other four years. The declines and increases in utilization were almost the same. At this time of year, the DOE report is supposed to be bullish for refined products and bearish for crude. More often than not, products lead the entire complex higher.
Last Week’s Inventory Comparison: Distillate stocks are now 2.9 million bbls, or 2.00%, higher than a year ago. Heating oil inventories are 3.8 mln bbls, or 10.38%, higher than they were a year ago. Gasoline stocks are 11.3 mln bbls (up 5.23%) higher against a year ago. Crude oil stocks are now 14.8 million bbls, or 4.12%, lower than a year ago. Residual stocks are 0.2 mln bbls (0.51%) lower than a year ago, jet fuel stocks are 0.8 mln bbls, (1.89%) higher than a year ago. Utilization is 1.50% lower than a year ago and 6.41% below the eight-year average. It is 8.70% lower than the four-year, pre-Katrina average and 4.12% below the average of the four years since the big hurricanes (Katrina & Rita) in 2005.
Last Week’s Demand: Four-week, total refined products demand came in at 19.347 million bpd, down 0.065 mln bbls on the week, and up 0.654 mln bpd and 3.50% against a year ago, reportedly. Five weeks ago, it was 0.159 mln bpd and 0.83% lower than a year ago. Four-week gasoline demand is at 8.947 mln bpd, up 1.15%, compared to down 1.26% four weeks ago. It was up 82,000 bpd on the week. Four-week distillate demand is now at 3.725 mln bpd, down 3.07%, compared to down 9.08% six weeks ago. Four-week jet demand is now at 1.289 mln bpd, down 6.59% against a year ago, compared to up 8.17% ten weeks ago. Four-week residual fuel demand is at 0.588 mln bpd, up 7.89%, compared to up 25.96% one week ago. Propane use is up 7.34%, to 1.330 mln bpd. We are still concerned about the DOE’s figures. According to the figures for all products supplied, released a year ago, this year’s total four-week average would be up 1.18% on the year, rather than up 3.50%.
This Week’s API Report: This week’s API report showed a huge build of 7.514 mln bbls in crude oil stocks, a draw of 2.534 mln bbls in distillate stocks and a small draw of only 0.081 mln bbls in gasoline inventories. Utilization was down 0.5% to 80.8%. Implied demand came in at a respectable 9.565 mln bpd in gasoline (after two strong weeks) and at 4.295 mln bpd in distillate. Crude oil imports were up an eye-catching 1.272 mln bpd to 9.189 mln bpd. Crude imports accounted for the build.
DOE Weekly Inventory Statistics
| Category | Final DOE Estimate
This Week’s Estimate | History
Last Year’s Report | Most Recent Changes
Last Week’s DOE Report | Versus A Year Ago
Millions of Barrels |
| Distillate | dn 1.50 to 2.00 mln bbls | dn 1.584 | dn 1.500 mln bbls | up 2.900 |
| Gasoline | dn 1.75 to 2.25 | dn 1.144 | dn 1.700 | up 11.300 |
| Crude oil | up 2.50 to 3.50 | up 3.302 | up 1.000 | dn 14.800 |
| Utilization | dn 0.0% to 0.5% | dn 0.1% at 82.0% | dn 0.10% at 80.60% | |
| Crude Imports | up 0.250 to 0.750 mmbd | up 0.204 to 9.384 | dn 0.064 to 8.428 mln bpd | |
| DOE Distillate Demand | 3.762 mln bpd | up 117,000 | Gasoline Demand | 8.849 mln bpd | dn 143,000 |
| DOE Distillate Production | 3.791 mln bpd | up 136,000 | Gasoline Production | 8.961 mln bpd | up 203,000 |
| DOE Distillate Imports | 0.163 mln bpd | up 033,000 | Gasoline Imports | 0.608 mln bpd | dn 198,000 |
Source: US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration
Open Interest Analysis
Crude oil open interest fell by 24,075 contracts on Monday, when prices rallied. That looks like substantial short-covering, which would be bearish. It was expiration-related. The open interest increase for March went from 50,557 to 26,482.
Heating oil open interest fell by 3,597 contracts on Monday, when prices were higher. That looks like short-covering, which would be bearish. Open interest has increased by 25,416 contracts since March 1st.
RBOB open interest fell by 1,254 contracts on Monday, when prices were higher, which looks like short covering. Open interest is up 58,943 since March 1st. Gasoline has now gained the most on a net basis.
Natural gas open interest fell by 6,186 on Monday, when prices were lower. That looks like long liquidation, which would be supportive. Open interest is up by 22,648 contracts since March 1st.
Monday’s Open Interest Changes:
Crude 1,300,489 dn 24,075 Heat 322,063 dn 3,597 RBOB 320,710 dn 1,254 Nat gas 838,779 dn 6,186
CFTC Commitments of Traders for Nymex (Forensic analysis for the period ended Tuesday, March 9th)
Crude oil prices gained $0.21/bbl over the latest reporting period, and the best buying once again came from Managed Money, which added 10,830 new longs and covered 189 existing shorts. Other Reportables, which include commission houses, added 2,598 new longs and covered 1,212 shorts, and that helped push prices higher. Swap Dealers liquidated 12,095 longs and added 951 shorts, while Producers added 11,035 new longs but also added 10,061 new shorts. Funds were the best buyers, with some light commission house buying, although Producers bought a little more than they sold. Swap Dealers were good sellers.
In heating oil futures, prices gained 2.45 cents a gallon, and the best net buying came again from Managed Money accounts, which added 2,166 new longs and covered 312 shorts. Producers bought 11,132 longs against the sale of 10,474 shorts. Other Reportables were selling into the market’s strength, liquidating 243 longs and adding 3,841 shorts. Swap Dealers liquidated 21 longs and covered 951 shorts. Managed Money buying and short-covering was the motive force behind higher prices.
Gasoline prices gained 1.47 cents a gallon during the period under review. Managed Money accounts were buying, adding 4,647 new longs and covering 1,991 shorts. Swap Dealers added 463 new longs and covered 121 shorts. Producers bought 10,534 new longs, but added 18,242 new shorts, selling into the market gains. Other Reportables added 191 new longs and covered 187 shorts. The funds’ buying pushed prices higher, with some light buying and covering by commission houses.
In natural gas, prices dropped 16.9 cents during the period under review. Managed Money accounts sold 15,514 new shorts against the purchase of only 1,394 new longs. Other Reportables were the only other seller, selling 2,584 new shorts against 4,290 new longs. Producers bought 4.165 new longs and covered 1,050 shorts, while Swap Dealers added 489 new longs and covered 6,326 existing shorts. The big funds continued their hammering of the market by selling short aggressively; everyone else was a net buyer.
Natural Gas & Utility Generation
Natural gas prices tried to rally yesterday, in a session marked by short-covering and profit-taking. And, these traders were competing with end-users who saw prices just above $4.00 as representing genuine value. Even though the fundamentals may be worsening, with winter now officially ended and with warmer-than-normal temperatures on the horizon, traders are looking at the bigger picture, which includes where oil prices are right now and where natural gas storage levels had been at the end of October, compared to now. It is hard to look at that overall picture and still feel that a three-dollar “handle” is justified for natural gas prices – unless one takes today’s prices for granted and works forward ‘in vacuo.’
We do understand that investment money has been able to push the crude-to-gas ratio out to 27-to-one before. We also know that the average since 2002 is 9.39-to-one, far less than yesterday’s 19.83-to-one. Above and beyond that, we find it nearly impossible to see something like yesterday’s existing home sales, which were lower for a third straight month, just not by as much as had been forecast, as being bullish for oil prices and, at the very same time, neutral or even bearish for natural gas prices. In fact, with natural gas being more of an industrial fuel and half any barrel of oil being used for largely personal transportation, our honest belief is that any incipient recovery would have to stimulate natural gas consumption before it improves employment, which would have to be the biggest factor in heavier gasoline use. Simply put, we don’t see how we can get to higher gasoline demand from the start of an economic recovery without going through higher natural gas use, first.
One could argue that this market is littered with the bones of logic and be right. The bears looking at fundamental factors see a market facing warmer-than-normal readings for this March, when in so many previous years, this month had been consistently colder. They translate that into smaller draws or larger builds (than normal) from or into storage, and that adds up to a worsening picture. They also see determined sellers and stops under $4.00.
In cash trading yesterday, Henry Hub prices were at $4.05-$4.15, up $0.03-$0.06 on the day (DJN). SoCal prices were at $4.10-$4.18, up and down $0.02 on the day. El Paso Permian prices were up $0.02-$0.03 at $3.92-$4.05. Katy prices were up $0.02-$0.06 to $4.01-$4.21. Waha prices were up $0.06-$0.06 at $3.95-$4.04. Transco 6 was up $0.09-$0.10 to $4.39-$4.50/mmBtu, according to Dow Jones News (DJN).
Palo Verde prices were last quoted at $37.50-$41.00/mwh. Northeastern prices last traded at $39.00-$41.00. Cinergy was last at $32.75-$35.00. Ercot was last at $33.00-$33.35/mwh.
Support is at $4.03-$4.06, $3.73-$3.75, $3.66-$3.68, $3.50-$3.53, $3.44-$3.46, $3.28-$3.32, $2.91-$2.93, $2.80-$2.82, $2.74-$2.75, and $2.69-$2.70. Resistance is at $4.16-$4.18, $4.29-$4.30, $4.36-$4.37, $4.44-$4.47, $4.59-$4.63, $4.76-$4.79, $4.86-$4.89, $4.97-$5.00, $5.16-$5.17, $5.46-$5.47, $5.55-$5.60, $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03, $6.09-$6.11, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37, $6.65-$6.69, $6.90-$6.94, $7.01-$7.04, $7.28-$7.31, and $7.34-$7.36.
Apr Natural Gas: Support : $4.03-$4.06, $3.73-$3.75, $3.66-$3.68, $3.50-$3.53, $3.44-$3.46, $3.28-$3.32.
Resistance: $4.16-$4.18, $4.36-$4.37, $4.44-$4.47, $4.59-$4.63, $4.76-$4.79, $4.86-$4.89.
Natural gas prices rallied a nickel yesterday as prices may be making a stand above $4.00 per million Btu.
Dollars per million Btu
The crude to gas ratio ended at 19.83 to one yesterday. Last year, there was a gargantuan move in this ratio ending in September.
Ratio
EIA Weekly Storage Figures
Last week’s EIA report showed a draw of 11 bcf on expectations for a draw of 28-35 bcf. Stocks are now 40 bcf lower than a year ago, against a deficit of 71 bcf a week ago, a deficit of 71 bcf two weeks ago and a deficit of 56 bcf three weeks ago. Stocks are now 2.41% lower than a year ago. They are 73 bcf and 4.73% above the five-year average.
For this week, the eight-year average (of similar Friday reports) was a draw of 42.12 bcf. The five-year average was a draw of 42.0 bcf. Last year’s build was 03 bcf. We have had two builds this week in the last eight years.
EIA Report
| Region | 03-12-10 | 03-05-10 | Change | Last Year | 5 Yr Avg |
| Cons East | 770 | 789 | dn 19 | 681 | 732 |
| Cons West | 283 | 289 | dn 06 | 278 | 230 |
| Producing | 562 | 548 | up 14 | 697 | 580 |
| Total US | 1615 | 1626 | dn 11 | 1655 | 1542 |
Bcf, or Billions of cubic feet. Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy
News & Views
| In trading on Nymex, May crude oil prices were down $1.15 at $80.76/barrel at 8.30 AM EDT, this morning. April heating oil prices were down 2.63 cents to 2.0755/gallon. April RBOB prices were down 3.16 cents to 2.2312. April natural gas prices were down $0.054 to $4.076/mmBtu. The US dollar surged higher this morning on continuing fears and questions surrounding Greece. With an EU summit starting tomorrow, a lack of German leadership may force Greece to go to the IMF. DOE Expectations The table below lists the final survey results for Dow Jones, Bloomberg and Reuters. The DOE report will be released at 10:30 EST on Wednesday morning this week. Category Dow Jones Bloomberg Reuters Crude up 1.400 up 1.650 up 1.500 mln bbls Distillate dn 0.600 dn 0.985 dn 1.000 Gasoline dn 1.300 dn 1.500 dn 1.300 Utilization unchanged unchanged unchanged 
Crude oil prices rallied yesterday, and they are now inside a trading range between $78.57 on the downside and $83.18 on the upside. The next move will be determined by which of those we break first. | 
Heating oil prices were higher yesterday, and they are in a trading range between 202.53 and 214.42. Whichever way prices break out next should determine the next direction taken by this market. The risk-oriented buyers seem to be back, but with a little less confidence. DOE History: Distillate stocks have fallen in seven of the last eight years, by an average of 1.775 mln bbls. The eight-year average is a draw of 1.266 mln bbls. Gasoline stocks fell in eight of the last eight years, for an eight-year draw of 2.141 mln bbls. Crude oil stocks have been higher in six of the last eight years for a six-year average build of 3.682 mln bbls and it has an eight-year average build of 2.086 mln bbls. Utilization has been higher in four of the last eight years and has an eight-year average increase of 0.025%, with an eight-year average utilization figure of 87.25%. The four-year, pre-hurricane utilization average was 89.93%. Since Katrina, refineries have run at an average utilization rate of 84.55%. Crude oil imports have been higher in four of the last six years, and the average crude oil import figure over the last six years has increased 173,000 bpd. The average crude oil import figure over the last six years has been 9.782 million bpd. Imports were 1.35 mln bpd below that figure in last week’s report. |
| Crude is in a range between $78.57 and $83.18. | |
Investors were trying to find a solution in the works for the Greek debt situation, and Germany continued to refuse to offer the leadership currency traders want. As a result, investors were selling risk and buying US dollars.
An Illustrated Look at Energy Market Factors
A Look at the US Dollar Versus the Euro
Dollar-Euro (dollar in euro cents): Three-Month Bar-Chart 
The US dollar was higher in trading overnight and early yesterday morning, and it sold off back towards unchanged in yesterday’s early, normal trading, before rising to challenge resistance right near the 74.20 level (euro cents). The dollar was higher overnight and seems to have had a major technical breakout this morning.
http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forexqkchart&curcode1=USD&curcode2=EUR
A Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (djia)
Dow Jones Industrial Average: One-Year Chart
The DJIA ended with a gain of 102.94 points yesterday, and oil futures seem to have switched over to following equities. The DJIA printed new highs for the recent advance, yesterday.
Source: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=DJIA&sid=1643
A Look at Carry Spreads
The heat third month contango is trading right on top of the cost of carry (roughly, the blue line).
While buying April and selling June does not make much sense, we do like buying any nearby month against February, 2011.
There is enough in the spread to defray a large part of the carrying cost and more.
Any sudden tightness between now and the end of January, 2011 would make this spread a winner.
This is true of the paper position and is doubly true of the wet-against-paper position, which could give holders the opportunity to make money coming and going if we get any tightness over the next 10 months.
The risk is low, although not non-existent, but those who have storage can mitigate that risk substantially.
This spread is sitting in no-man’s land right now. If it falls below even (goes into backwardation), it will release an avalanche of crude oil being held in storage, both on land and sea.
Recommendations for Specific Market Segments
Heating Oil Distributors Heating oil prices rallied yesterday, which effectively places them inside a trading range between 202.53 and 214.42. Whichever way they manage to break from this range is likely to determine the market’s next major move. Open interest dropped n Monday, even as prices rallied, and that suggests short-covering. Yesterday, it looked like we had fresh buying in the market, again. Investors had been taking their cues from the US dollar, but they went with equities yesterday. This morning, we appear to have had a major technical breakout to the upside in the US dollar, so that could be a factor. We have a number of factors to choose from today, with a strong dollar already a factor, and with equities and this week’s DOE report all factors in front of us. We would hold off on any new positions for right now. Diesel Users We would hold our caps here. We want to watch before adding. NYH Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…217.45-217.70 plus 7.375 USG Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…213.70-214.20 plus 3.750 Jet/Kerosene Users & Airlines New York Harbor cash market differentials were 6.75 to 7.00 cents over January heating oil in NY Harbor and 1.25 to 1.75 over the screen in the US Gulf. Diesel & Gasoline Marketers We would stay hedged here as we start the week. Gasoline Blenders & End-Users Prices have broken to the upside, and we want to hold our positions. Prompt NYH Fuel Ethanol…..160.00-163.00 Prompt USG Fuel Ethanol….157.00-160.00 Quotes from 03-23-10 Heating Oil End-Users We want to hold what we have here, but we are not adding today. Speculators We bought calls through March 15th. We would hold them here. Refiners The 7:5+2 crack spread was $11.20 yesterday. Today’s DOE report is likely to be bullish for crack spreads (products over crude). Crude Oil Producers Crude oil prices were higher yesterday as investors turned their attention from the dollar to stronger equities. We have a strengthening dollar this morning, so that could be a factor today. | Prompt Jet Fuel Prices New York Harbor 216.95-217.20 US Gulf 211.45-211.95 Midwest (Group Three) 214.20-215.20 Midwest (Chicago) 214.45-215.20 Los Angeles 216.00-217.00 San Francisco 216.00-217.00 Portland, Oregon 216.00-217.00 Cents per gallon Propane Prices Mont Belvieu……….…..non-TET………$1.136250 Cents per gallon  Gasoline prices were higher yesterday, and they are in a trading range between 220.00 and 231.50. We must confess to a certain surprise at yesterday’s lack of upward momentum, since gasoline had been the leader higher. It typically is the leader higher in the spring.
A settle over 231.34 would give us swing objectives to 249.35 and potentially as high as 267.41. Prices already had swing objectives to 242.28 and potentially as high as 289.89. |