Market Review for Friday
Oil prices were under selling pressure from the opening bell on Friday, having sold off in trading overnight. In the trading overnight in Asia and in Europe, oil prices were being sold in reaction to a lower equities and a stronger US dollar. This was in sharp contrast to the previous six out of seven days, or the period ended on Wednesday, during which fundamentals had played a leading role. For the first five days of that period, ending on Tuesday, oil prices had declined based on heavy inventory levels. On Wednesday, they rallied after this week’s DOE report showed a drawdown in crude oil stocks and a slightly larger-than-expected draw in gasoline inventories. Demand had also shown some improvements and that helped prices rally on Wednesday.
| Fuel for Thought It started as a Paulson attempt to hand-pick a group of Collateralized Debt Obligations {CDO’s} that the hedge fund (Paulson) believed was about to unravel. A Goldman executive wrote in an email that “the whole building is about to collapse,” in a memo urging the company to sell the CDO’s before they actually started losing value. Paulson got short these instruments, and Goldman sold the package to apparently unwitting buyers. The question is whether Goldman ever let the buyers know that the components of this package of mortgage securities (CDO’s) had been specifically chosen as ideal candidates to sell short by another client, the Paulson fund. Needless to say, this only underlines the commonly held opinion that Wall Street is rigged for the benefit of insiders. It hurts Goldman’s public image, but it is not likely to hurt its business. Only civil penalties are likely to follow. The bigger question is whether this has anything to do with recent volume records … . |
Around 10:42 AM EST, on Friday, prices started falling as the stock market started dropping, based on weakness in Goldman Sachs. Goldman has been accused of malfeasance, of putting together a portfolio that had been designed by one of its customers as being ideal for selling short. The question is whether Goldman had been forthcoming with that information as it sold the portfolio of CDO’s to other buyers.
As one of associates at FMXConnect put it, “Lawsuits mean uncertainty, and that is not good for any holdings.” The more we thought about it, watching prices for everything, from the euro to gold to equities and back to oil, falling, we realized that this quote had succinctly summed up the problem for the whole day. Goldman losses doubled by noon, going from down $12 (around 10:30 AM) to off $24, and the DJIA was down $130 at that time, as investors took profits in a number of financial stocks.
Sean Cota, of Cota & Cota Oil, NEFI and PMAA, sent us a note on Friday, pointing out that banks now account for 65% of US GDP, up from 17% in 1995. There was a time when an assault on Goldman Sachs could have been ignored by the equities markets, as a whole. But, that is not the case in 2010. CNBC was calling it: “the Goldman Bombshell” by noon, with its anchors wondering if this could spell an end to the bull market in equities. There was a sudden disillusion with the so-called “carry” trade, or the gluttony for risk that is so frequently described simply as an “appetite.”
Friday’s decline in oil prices was significant. Seven of the last eight days have now been lower, and Friday’s activity finally did hurt the market technically. What is most interesting is that the biggest loss of the entire period came from Friday’s disillusion with Wall Street and risk rather than from the five or six days during which traders were looking at oil market fundamentals. Technically, we do now have the market in position to decline. If the interest in fundamentals continues and risk appetite goes away as a major factor, this could be the start of a major decline in oil prices. And with so many record days in volume recently, one has to wonder how all these factors come together. That may be the bigger story that emerges this week and beyond.
Cash Prices for 4/16/10 @ 3:30pm
| PRODUCT | LOOKUP | Differential | Spot Value | Change |
| NY Harbor: Spot Product Differentials vs. NYMEX #2 and Unl | Unleaded Reg | ($0.11) | $2.16 | ($0.07) |
| NY Harbor: Spot Product Differentials vs. NYMEX #2 and Unl | No. 2 Heating Oil | ($0.03) | $2.18 | ($0.05) |
| NY Harbor: Spot Product Differentials vs. NYMEX #2 and Unl | Ultra LS Diesel | $0.05 | $2.25 | ($0.05) |
| Gulf Coast: Spot Product Differentials vs. NYMEX #2 and Unl | Unleaded Reg | ($0.09) | $2.17 | ($0.06) |
| Gulf Coast: Spot Product Differentials vs. NYMEX #2 and Unl | No. 2 Heating Oil | ($0.05) | $2.16 | ($0.04) |
| Gulf Coast: Spot Product Differentials vs. NYMEX #2 and Unl | Ultra LS Diesel | $0.02 | $2.23 | ($0.05) |
Technical Analysis
Crude Oil:
Prices were lower on Friday, and the major support is at $82.51. If prices can hold, or at least rally to settle above that level, there is still a chance for an assault on $87.09. If prices finish beneath $82.50, we have to expect to see prices work lower from there.
Crude oil prices seemed to be poised for an assault on the resistance at $87.09, but it now looks like prices will test support at $82.50. A break below that would be bearish.
Buy-stops are over $85.45, $86.40, $87.10, $89.82, $90.99, $93.02, $96.03, and $100.37. Sell-stops are under $82.50, $82.00-$82.20, $80.00-$80.15, $79.40, $78.85, $78.00, $77.00, $76.30, $73.70, $72.60, $71.30, $70.75, $69.30, $68.55, $68.00, $65.80-$66.20, and $64.95. Objectives higher have been reinstated here.
Football: The bulls lost 23 yards on our second and 13 to go, but it would have been bears’ fourth and 19 if we had not awarded the fumble, making it the bears’ new first down. We should not have played with it, giving a fumble.
May crude oil
Support: $82.50-$82.65, $82.00-$82.20, $81.75-$81.85, $80.00-$80.15, $79.40-$79.55.
Resistance: $85.35-$85.45, $86.25-$86.40, $86.90-$87.10, $87.35-$87.50, $89.75-$89.85.
Heating Oil:
Heating oil prices dropped on Friday, and they are near enough to test the important support at 218.70. A break and settlement beneath that level would be bearish. It now looks like any assault on resistance at 228.22-228.25 is on hold. Prices need a break above that to reinstate the objectives to 234.23.
May heating oil has buy-stops are now over 225.030, 225.95-226.00, 226.90, 228.25, 229.08, 234.25, 238.95, 249.62, and 251.50. Sell stops are under 219.00, 218.70, 216.60, 212.65, 212.00, 210.90, 207.65, 204.95, 202.50, 201.55, 200.55, 199.00, 196.40, 190.75, 189.95, 187.45, 186.50, 182.63, 177.00, 176.68, and 173.75.
May heating oil
Support: 221.45-221.60, 220.64-220.85, 219.00-219.10, 218.70-218.80, 216.60-216.75.
Resistance: 225.20-225.30, 225.95-226.20, 226.90-227.05, 228.10-228.25, 228.95-229.10.
Heating oil prices now seem decided upon tests of support at 219.00 and 218.70. A break and settlement below that would be bearish.
Unleaded Gasoline:
Gasoline prices broke below the support at 226.35-226.45, but they did not finish beneath that level. A settlement beneath that level would point to a test of support at 218.95. There is still major resistance at 236.72, and a settle above that would be bullish. After Friday’s activity, though, it is hard to tell what’s coming next. The seasonal tendency is still pointed higher, but Friday’s potentially bearish ramifications are major factors in this market.
May RBOB has buy-stops over 232.50, 235.20, 235.90, 240.10, 250.40, 252.00, 265.10, 267.85, and 270.85. Sell-stops are under 224.60, 221.40, 218.95, 215.50, 213.70, 203.80, 202.25, 198.40, 191.85, 187.00, 184.15, 182.40, 181.20, 179.20, 177.30, and 175.14. The bulls were hurt on Friday, but it is too early to know how lasting the impact will be.
Rbob
Support: 227.00-227.15, 226.35-226.50, 225.50-225.60, 224.60-224.75, 221.40-221.55.
Resistance 232.40-232.50, 235.10-235.20, 235.60-235.90, 236.65-236.75, 239.85-240.10.
Oil Inventory Reports
This week’s DOE report has traditionally been the one that has brought us back from winter or first quarter maintenance programs, on balance. Of course, this has not happened every year. But, in five of the last nine years, this week has had a substantial increase in refinery utilization rates (2.0% or more). We have also typically increased crude oil imports this week, in anticipation of higher run rates to follow. This year, both of those processes have already started, so there is a chance that this week will be less significant, in comparison. There is, of course, the other possibility, that this week will increase both crude imports and refinery utilization to even higher levels.
DOE History
Distillate stocks have risen in four of the last nine years, by an average of 1.200 mln bbls. The nine-year average is a build of 0.267 mln bbls. Gasoline stocks have fallen in six of the last nine years, for a six-year average draw of 1.768 mln bbls. The nine-year average was a draw of 0.789 mln bbls. Crude oil stocks have been higher in six of the last nine years for a six-year average build of 3.183 mln bbls and a nine-year average build of 1.744 mln bbls. Utilization has been higher in six of the last nine years and has a nine-year average increase of 1.4%, with a nine-year average utilization figure of 90.47%. The five-year, pre-hurricane utilization average was 93.84%. Since Katrina, refineries have run at an average utilization rate of 86.25%. Crude oil imports have averaged 9.865 million bpd over the last six years, with an average increase 264,000 bpd seen this week. This week has traditionally started the return to higher crude oil imports and refinery utilization rates.
Last Week’s Inventory Comparison
Distillate stocks are now 2.0 million bbls, or 1.38%, higher than a year ago. Heating oil inventories are 5.1 mln bbls, or 13.53%, higher than they were a year ago. Gasoline stocks are 5.7 mln bbls (up 2.64%) higher against a year ago. Crude oil stocks are now 13.0 million bbls, or 3.54%, lower than a year ago. Residual stocks are 4.6 mln bbls (12.11%) higher than a year ago, jet fuel stocks are 0.3 mln bbls, (0.72%) higher than a year ago. Utilization is 5.19% higher than a year ago and 3.69% below the nine-year average. It is 7.43% lower than the five-year, pre-Katrina average and 0.99% above the average of the four years since the big hurricanes (Katrina & Rita) in 2005.
Last Week’s Demand
Four-week, total refined products demand came in at 19.069 million bpd, up 0.045 mln bbls on the week, and up 0.454 mln bpd and 2.44% against a year ago, reportedly. Nine weeks ago, it was 0.159 mln bpd and 0.83% lower than a year ago. Four-week gasoline demand is at 9.137 mln bpd, up 2.78%, compared to up 1.68% one week ago. It was up 119,000 bpd on the week. Four-week distillate demand is now at 3.669 mln bpd, up 0.41%, compared to down 9.08% ten weeks ago. Four-week jet demand is now at 1.405 mln bpd, down 2.16% against a year ago, compared to up 8.17% 14 weeks ago. Four-week residual fuel demand is at 0.544 mln bpd, down 12.96%, compared to up 25.96% five weeks ago. Propane use is down 8.05% to 1.017 mln bpd, compared to 1.330 mln bpd (up 7.34%) three weeks ago. These numbers continued to improve, especially for total products supplied and for gasoline demand, which are the two most widely watched numbers coming out of this set of figures.
Last Week’s API Report
This week’s API report showed a build of 1.405 mln bbls in crude oil stocks, a build of 1.714 mln bbls in distillate stocks and an unexpected build of 1.610 mln bbls in gasoline inventories. Utilization was up 0.1% to 84.8%. Implied demand came in at a mild 9.104 mln bpd in gasoline and at 3.995 mln bpd in distillate. Crude oil imports were down 730,000 bpd to 9.210 mln bpd. This week’s report was bearish, because it showed builds across the board, and the builds that were expected in crude oil and distillate stocks were larger than had been expected. On the bullish side, crude imports dropped and this week’s increase in utilization was much smaller than the last two reported increases.
DOE Inventory Statistics
| Category | Final DOE Estimate
This Week’s Report | History
Last Year’s Report | Most Recent Changes
This Week’s DOE Report | Versus A Year Ago
Millions of Barrels |
| Distillate | up 0.50 to 1.00 mln bbls | dn 1.200 | up 1.107 mln bbls | up 2.000 |
| Gasoline | dn 1.25 to 1.75 | dn 0.900 | dn 1.036 | up 5.700 |
| Crude oil | up 1.50 to 2.50 | up 5.600 | dn 2.202 | dn 13.000 |
| Utilization | up 0.5% to 1.0% | up 1.4% at 80.4% | up 1.10% at 85.59% | |
| Crude Imports | up 0.000 to 0.500 mmbd | up 0.059 to 9.391 | dn 0.681 to 8.880 mln bpd | |
| DOE Distillate Demand | 3.583 mln bpd | dn 054,000 | Gasoline Demand | 9.325 mln bpd | up 249,000 |
| DOE Distillate Production | 3.962 mln bpd | dn 080,000 | Gasoline Production | 9.248 mln bpd | up 156,000 |
| DOE Distillate Imports | 0.184 mln bpd | up 031,000 | Gasoline Imports | 0.571 mln bpd | dn 185,000 |
Open Interest Analysis
Crude oil open interest grew by 2,388 contracts on Thursday, when prices were mixed. The May contract dropped on heavy long liquidation, while the back months rallied on good buying. Open interest is up 104,059 contracts in eight sessions. It looks like new buying on the advances and liquidation on declines, but it has not been consistent.
Heating oil open interest fell by 679 contracts on Thursday, when prices were higher. That looks like light short-covering, which would be bearish. It was light, though.
RBOB open interest rose by 6,911 contracts on Thursday, when prices were lower, which looks like new selling and would be bearish. Since March 1st , open interest is up 70,750 contracts.
Natural gas open interest grew by 14,637 on Thursday, when prices were lower. That looks like heavy new selling, which would be bearish. Funds have continued to sell natural gas, although it looked like they covered on Friday.
Thursday’s Open Interest Changes:
Crude 1,387,905 up 2,388 Heat 302,518 dn 679 RBOB 332,977 up 6,911 Nat gas 870,128 up 14,637
CFTC Commitments of Traders for Nymex (Forensic analysis for the period ended Tuesday, April 13th)
Crude oil prices rallied $0.96/bbl over the latest reporting period, and the best buying came from Producers, which added 54,173 new longs and 49,797 new shorts. Swap Dealers liquidated 901 longs and added 3,487 new shorts. Managed Money accounts liquidated 11,962 longs and covered 734 shorts. Other Reportables added 576 new longs and 4,122 new shorts. Producers ended up buying more than they sold, but the other three categories liquidated or sold more than they bought or covered. And all three of those – Managed Money, Other Reportables and Swap Dealers were net sellers by substantial amounts. The numbers do not seem to add up, either, with about 10,000 or 11,000 “extra” on the short side of the ledger, presumably with the long side having been taken by smaller non-reportable traders. Still, it is interesting that so many traders, in this report, seem to have gone against their basic, existing positions. In three out of four categories, traders went against their own net positions.
In heating oil futures, prices gained 2.44 cents a gallon and the best buying seems to have come from Other Reportables, which bought 1,047 longs and sold 911 short. Producers also covered more (14,704) than they liquidated (13,750). Swap Dealers liquidated 3,124 longs and covered 126 shorts, while Managed Money liquidated 643 longs and covered 289 shorts. Commission house buying pushed prices higher.
Gasoline prices rose 3.36 cents a gallon during the period under review. Here, it was Swap Dealers buying, adding 2,672 longs and covering 207 shorts. Producers added 3,963 longs and 5,590 shorts. Managed Money liquidated 1,591 longs and added 744 shorts. Without Swap Dealer buying, gasoline prices would not have been higher in the latest week.
In natural gas, prices rallied 14.1 cents during the period under review. Managed Money and commission houses were selling and Producers and Swap Dealers were buying. Managed Money accounts liquidated 427 longs and covered 5,143 new shorts. Other Reportables liquidated 5,355 longs and covered 1,205 shorts. Swap Dealers added 7,828 longs and added 726 shorts. Producers liquidated 5,248 longs and covered 8,575 shorts. The buying came from Swap Dealers and Producers covering shorts, while the selling as prices rose came from Managed Money and from Other Reportables (largely commission houses).
Natural Gas & Utility Generation
Natural gas prices rallied a little more than a nickel on Friday, and the immediate supposition was that it was related to the “bombshell.” The assumption is that Goldman and other investment banks were short natural gas futures and either they were covering shorts or other traders were buying or covering shorts on the assumption that Goldman and other investment banks would start covering their shorts. Funds have been selling in recent weeks.
There were stories out Friday that suggested that the investment bank in question had started liquidating longs in oil futures (and covering shorts in gas) just before Easter. We noted at the time that we were seeing signs that Managed Money accounts were getting out of existing positions. It looked like they were taking a breather ahead of the holidays coming up. The story out Friday suggested that Goldman may have been getting out before Easter because it knew the lawsuit was coming. FMXConnect picked up on this story, which can be read at this address: http://www.fmxconnect.com/fmxenergyconnect/post/2010/04/16/FMX-7c-Connect-Analysis-Goldman-Allegations-amp3b-Commodity-Prices.aspx). Managed Monet accounts were selling in the most recent CFTC report.
The official story from most wire services was that there was good “bargain-hunting” on Friday, after Thursday’s steep decline in prices. From our perspective, we would prefer to see it as “technical buying” above the major low at $3.81. Of course, prices were not exactly moving in on that level; they were a good 15 cents above the low. Nonetheless, as long as prices do remain above 3.81, we will tend to see buying in natural gas as technical buying above the lows. Until and unless we break and settle beneath that price, we would assume that the sideways configuration has not been negated. It is difficult to be bullish in this market, but we do see support holding.
Conclusions
Baker-Hughes reported another 14 rigs added to the active rolls on Friday, bringing the total to 973. We continue to add rigs as if prices were much higher. The most bearish factor in Thursday’s EIA report was the all-time record injection of 38 bcf in the US Gulf. Storage capacity in the US Gulf is around 1250 bcf, and there is a fear it could be tested this fall. We still think the market has a bottom of sorts in place, but we are bearish at higher prices.
Cash
In cash trading on Friday, Henry Hub prices were at $3.93-$4.03, down $0.14-$0.15 on the day (DJN). SoCal prices were at $3.87-$3.94, down $0.17-$0.20 on the day. El Paso Permian prices were down $0.14-$0.21/mmBtu to $3.77-$3.82. Katy prices were down $0.19-$0.19 to $3.89-$3.96. Waha prices were down $0.18-$0.18 at $3.85-$3.90. Transco 6 was down $0.20-$0.23 at $4.29-$4.35/mmBtu, according to Dow Jones News (DJN).
Electricity
Palo Verde prices were last quoted at $35.00-$37.00/mwh. Northeastern prices last traded at $40.75-$42.50. Cinergy was last at $35.00-$37.00. Ercot was last at $36.00-$36.75/mwh.
Technical Analysis
Support is at $3.90-$3.91, $3.81-$3.86, $3.73-$3.75, $3.66-$3.68, $3.50-$3.53, $3.44-$3.46, $3.28-$3.32, $2.91-$2.93, $2.80-$2.82, $2.74-$2.75, and $2.69-$2.70. Resistance is at $4.09-$4.10, $4.17-$4.18, $4.27-$4.29, $4.34-$4.37, $4.44-$4.47, $4.59-$4.63, $4.76-$4.79, $4.86-$4.89, $4.97-$5.00, $5.16-$5.17, $5.46-$5.47, $5.55-$5.60, $5.87-$5.90, $5.99-$6.03, $6.09-$6.11, $6.15-$6.17, $6.34-$6.37, $6.65-$6.69, $6.90-$6.94, $7.01-$7.04, $7.28-$7.31, and $7.34-$7.36.
MAY Natural Gas:
Support: $3.96-$3.97, $3.90-$3.91, $3.81-$3.86, $3.73-$3.75, $3.66-$3.68, $3.50-$3.53, $3.44-$3.46.
Resistance: $4.09-$4.10, $4.17-$4.18, $4.27-$4.29, $4.34-$4.37, $4.44-$4.47, $4.59-$4.63, $4.76-$4.79.
A 61.8% retracement of the move from $2.409 to $6.108 would have taken prices to $3.822. The low is $3.810.
EIA Weekly Storage Figures
This week’s EIA report showed a build of 87 bcf on expectations for a build of 77-81 bcf. Stocks are now 64 bcf higher than a year ago, against a deficit of 02 bcf a week ago, a deficit of 16 bcf two weeks ago and a deficit of 28 bcf three weeks ago. Stocks are now 3.78% higher than a year ago. They are 246 bcf and 16.29% above the five-year average.
For this week, the nine-year average (of similar Friday reports) was a build of 12.67 bcf. The five-year average was a build of 18.6 bcf. Last year, there was a build of 21 bcf. Over the last nine years, six years showed builds and three years showed draws. The previous record injection for last week was 57 bcf in 2006, putting the 87 bcf build we saw last week in perspective. The build of 38 bcf in the US Gulf of 38 bcf was an all-time record, not just for the week.
EIA Report
| Region | 04-09-10 | 04-02-10 | Change | Last Year | 5 Yr Avg |
| Cons East | 795 | 750 | up 45 | 650 | 669 |
| Cons West | 296 | 292 | up 04 | 287 | 231 |
| Producing | 665 | 627 | up 38 | 754 | 610 |
| Total US | 1756 | 1669 | up 87 | 1692 | 1510 |
News & Views
In trading on Globex, May crude oil prices were down $2.37 to $80.87, at 8:30 AM EDT this morning. May heating oil prices were down 6.34 cents to 2.1535/gallon. Gasoline prices were down 3.87 cents to 2.2383/gallon. May natural gas, was up 0.025 to $4.064/mmBtu.
In early trading this morning, equities were still under pressure from the Goldman Sachs allegations out on Friday. The US dollar was higher, and Chinese equities were experiencing their largest decline of the year. This is not a good sign; usually investors rethink events of this nature over a weekend and return with clearer heads. If this selling is now the result of cool and clear thinking, it could be the start of something bigger. It will be important to see if the selling lasts through the entire day.
Investors noted that Citigroup will be releasing its quarterly results today, and there are concerns that the rest of the sector may be tarred by the same brush. A number of other companies will be releasing their quarterly results today, and the index of leading economic indicators will be out today. Market observers were also talking about the Icelandic volcano that has trans-Atlantic air travel grounded as another potentially bearish factor.
In previous years, refinery margins have seen much larger gains in the spring.
An Illustrated Look at Energy Market Factors
Dollar Index
Dollar-Euro 3-Month Chart
The US dollar rallied on Friday, and it has rallied again this morning. It now looks like it may have found support near its lows near 73.00 euro cents last week, and technicians will be looking at last week’s lows as the basis for a potential double bottom formation. Of course, before this pattern, there was a potential double top.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
The DJIA ended the week with a loss of 125.91 points to finish at 11,018.66, as equities markets were pressed lower in the general reaction to the Goldman event. It is uncertain what will happen next, but this market has dropped suddenly and sharply from new, recent highs, only to find support at unexpected places, from which fresh rallies have begun. We are not certain why this time would or should be different.
Recommendations for Specific Market Segments
Heating Oil Distributors
Heating oil prices were lower on Friday, along with the rest of the oil complex, equities, currencies and precious metals prices, as investors dumped their holdings on the uncertainty that has followed the Goldman Sachs event. As events with any direct influence on supply or demand go, this has to establish a new low in terms of scraping the bottom of the oil barrel for market-moving factors but, because of the leadership of this and other large investment banks, the entire relationship between commodities and the “carry” trade – or what is simply referred to blandly as “risk appetite” – seems to be under review. Whether this investment bank is now liquidating positions, or did so earlier, may be irrelevant. It seems that the fear that it could liquidate assumed long positions seems to be prompting others to sell “ahead” of that expected liquidation. In other words, it has created uncertainty.
Diesel Users
We would hold our caps and calls here, but we are not keen to add until we get a better sense of what it all means.
NYH Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…227.70-228.20plus .2500
USG Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel.…224.20-224.70 plus 2.750
Jet / Kerosene & Airlines
New York Harbor cash market differentials were 3.50 to 3.75 cents over January heating oil in NY Harbor and 0.50 to 1.00 over the screen in the US Gulf. The volcano in Iceland is having a huge impact.
Diesel & Gasoline Makers
We would stay hedged here.
Gasoline Blenders & End Users
Prices had a weak finish last week, and it is not clear where we may be headed next. We would hold our long-bias positions, for now.
Prompt NYH Fuel Ethanol…..161.00-163.00
Prompt USG Fuel Ethanol.….154.00-156.00
Quotes from 04-16-10
Heating Oil End Users
We would hold our long-bias positions here, for now. This is potentially either a great place to buy, or it is the beginning of a new leg lower, so we feel a special need to get it right. We are awaiting the next signals.
Speculators
We are long call options. We said that we wanted to buy more, but that we would only hold onto those that were winners right away. So, we do not want to hold anything purchased late last week. Hold the earlier stuff, and wait.
Refiners
The 7:5+2 crack spread was $11.67 on Friday.
Crude Oil Producers Opec Basket…..$83.28 up $0.65
Crude oil prices fell again on Friday, making it seven out of eight days lower. It is really hard to tell what to expect next, here, so we would hold what we have without adding right now.