Oil Field Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook – March 15, 2010

FMX | Connect - www.fmxconnect.com - (Reported 3/15/10)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chart 1: Daily Front Month Crude Oil (short-term analysis):

image

Weekly Recap:

This past week, crude oil attempted to make its way higher but failed. On Monday, it made a high of 82.41 to close at 81.87. On Wednesday, it made a high of 83.03 to close at 82.09, and on Friday made a high of 83.16 to close at 81.24, finishing the week marginally lower. The price action was bearish as stochastics made lower lows (negative divergence), and crude failed to close above resistance at 83.


Weekly Outlook:

Traders will be very cautious as many technical indicators point towards a short-term reversal. Crude has been in overbought territory for some time according to the stochastic oscillator, and has crossed slightly below the 80 threshold. Traders typically use a cross below 80 on the oscillator as a sell signal. In addition, there appears to be a double top formation at play. A close below Friday’s close will confirm the bearish formation.


In the event of a reversal, traders will be looking at the 80 level followed by the moving averages for support. Further support can be found at the 77 level followed by the trend line. 

 

Technical Statistics:


CLJ0 - Crude Oil April 2010 (NYMEX)

Date Open High Low Last Change
3/12/2010 82.2 83.16 80.57 81.24 -0.87



Period

 Moving Average Price Change Percent Change Average Volume
5-Day 81.76 -0.26 -0.32% 269971
20-Day 79.79 5.52 7.29% 266641
50-Day 78.68 0.93 1.16% 157276
100-Day 79.18 0.34 0.42% 85092
200-Day 76.48 13.42 19.79% 43904
Year to Date 78.6 0.61 0.76% 163128
Period Raw Stochastic Stochastic %K Stochastic %D Average True Range
9-Day 60.82% 75.25% 79.68% 2.07
14-Day 68.58% 80.15% 84.67% 2.14
20-Day 80.93% 87.95% 90.17% 2.16
Period Relative Strength Percent R Historic Volatility MACD Oscillator
9-Day 57.59% 39.18% 23.12% 0.58
14-Day 57.10% 31.42% 21.09% 1.35
20-Day 55.73% 19.07% 23.82% 2.02
50-Day 53.06% 24.54% 27.41% 3.13
100-Day 52.01% 24.54% 26.98% 2.64


High / Low Statistics:


CLJ0 - Crude Oil April 2010 (NYMEX)
Date Open High Low Last Change
3/12/2010 82.2 83.16 80.57 81.24 -0.87
3/11/2010 81.98 82.38 81.33 82.11 0.02
3/10/2010 81.38 83.03 80.81 82.09 0.6
3/9/2010 81.75 81.91 80.16 81.49 -0.38
3/8/2010 81.79 82.41 80.75 81.87 0.37
For The Last Made New High Percent From Made New Low Percent From
5 days 3 time(s) -2.31% 2 time(s) 1.35%
20 days 11 time(s) -2.31% 1 time(s) 9.69%
65 days 14 time(s) -4.38% 5 time(s) 16.39%
100 days 14 time(s) -4.38% 4 time(s) 18.81%
260 days 34 time(s) -4.38% 1 time(s) 49.42%
Year to Date 4 time(s) -4.38% 12 time(s) 16.39%

 



Chart 2: Daily Front Month Crude Oil (long-term analysis):

image
 

Long-Term Outlook:

This week will be crucial in anticipating crude’s long-term price action. As we noted in a previous crude oil technical report, supply had become increasingly anxious as crude failed to reach the top line of the primary channel (blue lines). As a result, a secondary channel formation had been created (dotted pink line). Now a third channel may be in the making (dotted red line) if crude fails to reach the dotted pink line – a further indication that the overall pattern is rolling over.

 

 

 

 

Julian@fmxconnect.com





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