FMX | Connect (Reported 11/18/2011)
The following is a report of Gold Option’s activity in the Over-The- Counter and Exchange traded venues. Information is compiled and summarized below.
Summary
December Gold settled at $1,725.10 per troy ounce, a gain of $4.90 for the day.
Market Recap:
Markets opened higher Friday morning, but struggled to preserve gains in the wake of yesterday’s sell-off. By the end of the day the move proved mostly a modest retracement, with the Dollar index trading back close to the highs of the day after being down more than a basis point.
December Gold retraced higher on dollar weakness this morning but recorded only modest gains on the day. It seemed as if the pattern was buy the European open and sell the U.S. open, and futures failed to break support at 1711 for the second day in a row. As one might expect, market participants continued to unwind December options open interest ahead of Tuesday expiration. The 1700 put was heavily traded. On the day, volatility was mostly unchanged and fences moved toward the put.
Directional Commentary:
Options: Option behavior was bearish. Puts were bid, calls were offered, and volatility was firm despite a modest move for the underlying on the day. The market may be anticipating a pin for options expiration on Tuesday, but seems to be preparing for an accelerating sell-off. Conclusion: Somewhat Bearish
Technical: Though gold finished the day slightly higher the near-term trend remains bearish. Bulls should look for a settlement above 1750 to rekindle the possibility of a rally, while bears should look to overcome resistance at 1711. If gold sells below 1711 (just below the 50-day moving average) it will most likely test support at 1680 afterwards, and from there could trade all the way down to 1680. Conclusion: Somewhat Bearish
Active Options
Z 1725 C, Z 1800 C
Z 1700 P
G 2000 C
J 1580 P / 1990 C Fence
J 1775 Straddle
ATM Volatility Curve:
As of 1:30 P.M.
Volatility Smile:
***From NYMEX Settlement
End of Day Straddles
GC | | | |
| Future | Bid | Offer |
Z11 | 1725 | 28 | 32 |
F12 | 1730 | 109 | 113 |
G12 | 1730 | 153 | 157 |
H12 | 1730 | 189 | 193 |
J12 | 1730 | 224 | 228 |
K12 | 1735 | 252 | 256 |
M12 | 1735 | 280 | 284 |
N12 | 1735 | 307 | 311 |
Q12 | 1735 | 329 | 333 |
U12 | 1740 | 351 | 355 |
V12 | 1740 | 369 | 373 |
X12 | 1740 | 389 | 393 |
Z12 | 1740 | 410 | 414 |
As of 1:30 P.M.
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