Second Quarter 2010 Technical Outlook
One of our subscribers passed along this excellent technical report from Janney Capital Markets for the community to look at. Some excerpts are below.
KEY POINTS:
• We believe the U.S. equity markets will remain within a cyclical uptrend for 2Q 2010. The major risk in this quarter
is for a sizable (and potentially scary) correction- but not a major cyclical market top...
• The S&P 500 was able to make some key technical advances in the first quarter...
• Market breadth / internals are supportive of the trend so far...
• A continued 'mean reversion' economic rebound could entice Main Street off the sidelines...
• Risk of a 10-15% correction in Q2 is high in our opinion...
• U.S. markets likely settling into a 'muted trading range' for the next few years...
• The U.S. dollar: near-term reward, but long-term risk...
• Interest Rates: Reflation within a deflation?
We believe the U.S. equity markets will remain within a cyclical uptrend for 2Q 2010. The major risk in
this quarter is for a sizable (and potentially scary) correction- but not a major cyclical market top:
• The benchmark S&P 500 was able to break through key technical hurdles in March
• Small- and mid-cap sectors have been leading the charge- these can typically roll over and ‘diverge’
in the months preceding a major market top
• The banks / financials continue to act well- debt markets suggest further upside potential for banking
stocks, although developments on the regulatory front could delay the progress somewhat
• Retail investors remain on the sidelines for the most part in our opinion- but a continued ‘mean
reversion’ economic recovery here in the states could boost confidence- that could be a big benefit
for the cyclical uptrend going forward
SPX: 1204.52
q2techoutlook
----
About FMX: FMX Connect is an information, data, and analytics portal for Commodities. The portal provides an all-in-one package including essential market data, independent third party research, industry news, and commodity trading tools. FMX Connect provides efficient, effective, and thorough data that bridges all aspects of commodities onto one screen. The Result; A user friendly application for hedge fund traders, OTC brokers, individual investors, and industry participants.
-----
Note: The information presented, while from sources generally believed to be reliable, is not guaranteed and may not be complete. FMX | Connect makes no representations or warranties regarding the correctness of any opinions or information. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing in this report should be construed as a representation to buy or sell shares, futures or options, which contain considerable risks. For internal client distribution only. Any reproduction, re-transmission, or distribution of this report without permission is prohibited. Media correspondents or reporters may not quote any one page or section in its entirety and must attribute all quotes, ideas or concepts herein. Copyright FMX | Connect, ©2009-2010. All rights reserved.