Oil prices started out under selling pressure yesterday in response to weaker equities in Europe and then in the United States and in response to a rallying US dollar. As the day wore on, both equities and the dollar moved back towards unchanged, but the DJIA finished with a loss of 17 points while the dollar ended with gains against the euro, although the dollar index wound up near unchanged. Oil prices, though, jumped up from negative numbers, through unchanged and settled with respectable gains. The direction could have come from equities and currencies, but the amounts gained seemed to have come from short-covering ahead of this week’s reports and in response to a report on factory orders. [More]

Oil markets advanced yesterday, as traders covered shorts to begin this new week. The DJIA rallied nearly 77 points yesterday, which changed the tenor of the conversation to a degree. On Friday, the major stock index had plunged more than 240 points. The US dollar was also at lower levels at times yesterday, although it has since gone on to participate in a major rally. As of this writing, the US dollar was at its highest point in more than a month, and it seemed to have turned an important corner on the charts. [More]

These markets, this economy, just about everything that is important in terms of money; they are all confused right now. It looked like we were getting ready to decline significantly after Wednesday’s trading. The dollar had rallied, stock markets had fallen sharply and the oil markets were down substantially. It looked like the trend higher had ended. Then, everything reversed on Thursday and, like a number of others, we were forced to back-pedal. Everything that had looked true on Wednesday night suddenly looked foolish by Thursday night. It turned out, though, that it would have been better not to have said or written anything on Thursday, because by Friday afternoon, it seemed that Wednesday’s movements had been the “correct” ones, after all. As of right now, it looks like everything we said on Wednesday was closer to being true. [More]

Just as it looked like everything was on its way t o lower levels, the stock market advanced nearly 200 points and the dollar took a roundhouse to its jaw. The oil complex saw its prices shoot higher as a result of the big moves seen in its alter ego markets, with the third quarter increase in GDP being the primary motive behind higher quotes in the DJIA and lower quotes in the US dollar. GDP rose by 3.5%, above estimates for growth of 3.2%, and that brought the bulls out of hiding and back to the table for another heaping helping of risk, with all the fixings. And, after their recent regurgitation, there was plenty of room to gobble up everything laid out on the tablecloth. This rush back to the buffet left everyone paying in dollars, and the dollar index dropped from 76.228 late on Wednesday to 75.993 yesterday. [More]

This weeks DOE report had some surprisingly bearish numbers in it, with crude oil and gasoline inventories both increasing. Distillate stocks dropped, but there was still little sign of any weather-related increase in demand, which was up just 15,000 bpd against last week’s figure. Refinery utilization followed the pattern established over seven of the last eight years for this week, and was up 0.7%. Total products demand was down against last week’s figure and lost ground rather heavily against a year ago. It was a bearish DOE report. [More]

Yesterday's trading was thoroughly inconclusive, with oil prices slightly higher on the day. We had the peculiar situation of having oil prices, the DJIA and the US dollar all higher, although the dollar seems to have had the most important day on the charts. The DJIA was up 14 points in the narrowest range seen in months, and that seems to suggest that the buying was not all that strong, after several wide-ranged days in which buying and selling seemingly alternated in waves that pushed quotes up and down liberally. Yesterday’s activity had either rock-solid selling at its highs or just a lack of buying underneath, which is what we think. Oil prices were slightly higher ahead of the week’s reports. [More]

Oil prices were lower yesterday, making it three days lower running now. Crude oil prices took back all of last week’s accumulated gains – and then some – yesterday, while heating oil prices negated nearly 92% of last week’s gains of 4.59 cents a gallon. Gasoline was the laggard, taking back just a penny of last week’s gains of six and a half cents a gallon. And, it was once again a combination of the dollar and equities moving contrary to oil gains and letting oil fundamentals shine through. In any event, the index funds and ETF’s were kicking out longs and the trade was selling. Dow Jones wrote that investors were streaming out of equities and commodities and were getting back into the US dollar in a massive regurgitation of risk. At the center of yesterday’s maelstrom was a Wall Street Journal report that Bank of America could find it difficult to repay the money lent to it by the government. This led to a general retrenchment from banking equities as investors reminded themselves of the large volume of bad debts certainly still on the books across the banking sector. [More]

There are always (at least) two ways of looking at things, and Friday’s decline in oil prices gives us a chance to start at the same and end at the same place, but to take two different ways of covering the distance between them. Either way, our stories start with weaker equities and a stronger dollar, two unrelated instruments that have had a strong inverse relationship recently. And, we end with weaker oil prices on Friday. One camp would tell us that it is simply a matter of watching the two markets and then seeing whether they have given oil prices a push or a pull. [More]

Oil prices were lower yesterday as a steady dollar through most of yesterday’s session allowed the fundamentals in the oil complex to shine through – briefly. Equities advanced steadily yesterday, ending the day with gains of almost 132 points in the DJIA, although the advance was slow. The dollar weakened at the end of the trading day, eventually bringing the shutters down on the fundamentals. [More]

Equities prices were higher for most of yesterday’s session, but had a late sneak attack by sellers, leaving a kind of reversal day on the charts. Oil prices settled before the selloff in the stock market, represented by a Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) that coughed up more than 92 points by the final bell. This week’s DOE report was ostensibly as advertised; crude oil stocks grew, refinery utilization rebounded slightly, and refined products stocks dropped. So, the supply side did what it was expected to do. On top of that, all three major stock categories (crude, distillate, gasoline) had reductions in their year-on-year surpluses. [More]