The seasonal tendency for oil prices to reach a significant bottom in the first half of March is well-established. Over the last few years, we have seen less of a decline in February than in years gone by, but the seasonal tendency for strength still seems to be in place. It has worked in all but the most exceptional circumstances. In 2003, we had the invasion of Iraq, so it did not work. That was the one time it would have yielded certain losses in a quarter of a century. [More]

Right now, crude oil futures are offering the opportunity of a lifetime, to traders, but potentially also to the incoming administration. With carrying costs for crude oil lined up for years ahead, arbitrage traders are trying to capture the richest part of the spread, into next... [More]