Gold prices were higher on Friday, and the US dollar ended lower. But, while the weak greenback helped precious metals, the luster was off oil. The strength of the dollar on Thursday, along with the possible double bottom formation, gave fundamental oil traders a chance to push quotes lower after the DOE report was released. Friday’s decline in the dollar was not enough to negate the double bottom and it took back only half of Thursday’s gains. More than anything, it did not negate the bearish factors in last week’s DOE statistics. [More]

The US dollar advanced sharply yesterday, and it looks like we may have a double bottom forming. Prices found support near the lower end of their range, and they bounced significantly higher in heavy trading yesterday. Despite a drop in the most recent unemployment figures, investors expressed doubts over the ability of the global economy to sustain a major recovery. The result of this was a massive move out of commodities and stocks and back into the US dollar. Because it was so unexpected, many traders were caught leaning the wrong way and were forced to cover. [More]

Oil prices were lightly higher yesterday, as traders waited for this week’s DOE report, which was delayed until today because of Veterans’ Day yesterday. Prices had been lower in overnight trading in reaction to Tuesday night’s API report, and it hit a kind of stasis yesterday as traders waited for this week’s DOE report. Based on the API figures, prices had been lower in reaction to builds in all three major inventory categories, but as yesterday’s trading progressed, shorts covered positions. [More]

Tropical Storm Ida made landfall near Mobile, Alabama yesterday, with winds diminished to around 45 mph. By the time Ida reached the Gulf Coast, it had lost enough power for it to cease to be a major threat to production or refining. A number of producing fields had been shut down as a precautionary measure, but most of them were back in service yesterday. The storm had been a sudden and unexpected source of buying on Monday, but it helped bring back selling on Tuesday. [More]

Every time this market looks promising on the downside (or the upside, for that matter), something happens that turns prices back up. Prices were on the brink in crude oil and heating yesterday, and they had already broken lower in gasoline. Distillate stocks remain near historic highs, while crude oil stocks are still 7.6% higher than a year ago. The only reason that crude oil stocks have not been bursting to fresh highs recently is because refiners have slowed imports to a trickle. If it were not for Chinese stock-building, there would be a large number of barrels backed up internationally. Gasoline demand has been stronger than either oil, but it recently turned negative in its four-week averages. [More]

Oil prices sold off sharply on Friday, leaving crude with a net gain of 43 cents on the week, and pulling refined products into negative territory. After a strong start to the week, it was a disappointing end to it all by Friday’s close. Oil prices were down steeply, and the DJIA was higher, if just by 17 points, but this followed Thursday’s separation between oil prices and equities, in which oil prices were down slightly while equities were up dramatically. On Friday, it was oil that had the big move – lower – while equities had the smaller move in the opposite direction. [More]

Equiities surged yesterday, pushing the key Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) up more than 200 points and back above 10,000. It was a huge day for stock market investors. Surprisingly, perhaps even shockingly, it did nothing to push oil prices higher. And the US dollar was essentially unchanged yesterday, demonstrating that the dollar, rather than the stock market, may be the critical outside factor for oil traders. The ‘marriage’ between oil and equities never made any long-term sense and, while we cannot yet say definitively that the relationship has ended, yesterday looked like a fairly high profile separation between the two critical benchmarks – Light, Sweet Crude and the DJIA. [More]

The oil complex advanced again yesterday, making it three days straight that prices have been higher. All three major inventory categories showed drawdowns, although the draws in refined products stocks were lower than had been expected. Crude oil stocks fell by nearly 4 million barrels, primarily because of a three-quarters-of-a-million barrel reduction in imports. Utilization dropped by an unexpectedly large 1.2%, and if imports had remained flat or had risen, that could have contributed to an anticipated increase in crude oil stocks. But, it was import levels that made this report what it was – in terms of inventory changes. [More]

Oil prices started out under selling pressure yesterday in response to weaker equities in Europe and then in the United States and in response to a rallying US dollar. As the day wore on, both equities and the dollar moved back towards unchanged, but the DJIA finished with a loss of 17 points while the dollar ended with gains against the euro, although the dollar index wound up near unchanged. Oil prices, though, jumped up from negative numbers, through unchanged and settled with respectable gains. The direction could have come from equities and currencies, but the amounts gained seemed to have come from short-covering ahead of this week’s reports and in response to a report on factory orders. [More]

Oil markets advanced yesterday, as traders covered shorts to begin this new week. The DJIA rallied nearly 77 points yesterday, which changed the tenor of the conversation to a degree. On Friday, the major stock index had plunged more than 240 points. The US dollar was also at lower levels at times yesterday, although it has since gone on to participate in a major rally. As of this writing, the US dollar was at its highest point in more than a month, and it seemed to have turned an important corner on the charts. [More]