This week’s DOE report will be very instructive. The signals it is giving are divided down a line, with supply factors, like inventory figures, falling on the bearish side, while demand factors are steadily improving, it seems. Inventories still are well above previous years, and they are higher than multi-year averages. [More]

This week’s DOE report may be more important than many reports seen this year. Up until very recently, the weekly reports have more often than not played second fiddle to movements in equities and currencies. And, while those retain a certain importance, they are not enough to overwhelm major fundamental developments right now. How important this report will be remains to be seen. [More]

This week’s DOE report should show the initial results (or continuing results) of higher refinery utilization rates. Utilization is 6.25% higher than a year ago and just 2.21% below the nine-year average for this time of year, and those figures are some of the most robust numbers we have seen in years coming into the start of May. [More]

This week’s DOE report has traditionally been the one that has brought us back from winter or first quarter maintenance programs, on balance. Of course, this has not happened every year. But, in five of the last nine years, this week has had a substantial increase in refinery utilization rates (2.0% or more). We have also typically increased crude oil imports this week, in anticipation of higher run rates to follow. [More]

On Friday, the US dollar turned decisively lower, in a clear technical failure to break to new recent highs. Prices fell fairly steeply, and it now looks like the greenback has had an important technical failure and now needs to return to test support. If it breaks below those levels, technical traders will see a double top on the charts, in a market in which one can easily paint a bearish fundamental picture. [More]

We have had nine consecutive builds in crude oil stocks, and it looks like the odds are in favor of there being another build in this week’s report. Six out of the last eight years have generated stock builds for this same week. And, after last week’s unexpectedly strong increase in refinery utilization (of 1.5%, to 82.60%), we enter this week with a similarly strong chance of there being another increase in utilization this week. [More]

Over the last eight years, gasoline stocks have been both higher and lower, four years for both. The average is a draw of slightly less than 900,000 bbls. Another factor that could have a bearing on this week’s statistics is the history of crude oil import increases. Four of the last six years have had an increase in imports, with the average increase over those four years coming in at 572,000 bpd. We had a large increase last week, which might mean it won’t occur this week. [More]

This week’s DOE report has given us seven draws in distillate and seven draws in gasoline stocks over the last eight years. It has also given us seven builds in crude oil stocks over the last eight years. DOE reports, at this time of year, tend to be bullish for refined products and bearish for crude oil – or just bullish for refinery margins or crack spreads. [More]

This week’s DOE report has historically shown drawdowns in refined products stocks and builds in crude oil inventories. Crude imports have generally started to increase, as refinery margins improve (partly because we see lower products stocks sand higher crude oil stocks). Demand traditionally starts to recover before refinery utilization catches up to it, and that helps to draw down products stocks which, in turn, helps margins, which encourages refiners to rebuild crude stocks for processing in May and then in the summer. [More]

This week’s DOE report has had six of eight years showing draws in both refined products – curiously close – of 1.933 and 1.966 million bbls for distillate and gasoline, respectively (over the six years of draws). Utilization has been higher in four years and lower in the other four years. Crude oil imports have fallen in four years out of the last six. [More]